Scoring is up across the NFL. Just ask Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans, or Buffalo Bills fans, or Seattle Seahawks fans, or the defense of the Dallas Cowboys.
The good news for the Cowboys is that even after another ignominious loss dropped them to 1-3, they're still only a half-game out of first place in the NFC East, the only division with nary a team with a winning record. Are they the favorites to win the East?
Our panel of experts is here to make not only their picks for the NFC East but to clue you in on Week 5's biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 5?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Titans (+1) over Bills. Tennessee might be shorthanded this week due to a few players on the COVID-19 list, but the team will otherwise be fresh and healthy off the unexpected Week 4 bye. Buffalo is red hot and undefeated this season, but Tennessee is also sitting at 3-0 after victories over Denver, Jacksonville and Minnesota.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Chargers (+7.5) over Saints. The Chargers have lost three games by a combined 15 points and played the Chiefs better than anyone so far. This is a good team that's due law-of-averages help dating to last year. Justin Herbert looks great, and the Saints need more than a win in Detroit to prove the offense is back.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Panthers (+2.5) over Falcons. I am surprised the better team isn't favored in this game. Banged-up Falcons on a short week against a team that has won two in a row and is putting its offense together impressively in spite of losing its best player. I like the Panthers to win it outright.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Browns (+2.5) over Colts. The Indianapolis defense has been dominant so far this season but hasn't played very challenging competition. Enter a Cleveland offense that seems to be finding its rhythm, with an offensive line that might be outplaying the vaunted Colts blockers.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Panthers (+2.5) over Falcons. I've fallen for the Falcons too many times, believing that a strong passing game could vault them back into contention with just a bit of positive regression on defense. But guess what? Not only is their pass defense still miserable (30th in expected points added per play), but Atlanta's offense is only average, too. Carolina has actually outperformed the Falcons in all three phases this year.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Panthers (+2.5) over Falcons. Matt Rhule has the Panthers heading in the right direction and old friend Ben Fawkes recently Tweeted this worthwhile Teddy Bridgewater nugget: He's 18-4 against the spread in his past 22 starts as an underdog. Make it 19-4 on Sunday.
The NFC East is awful, but some team has to win it. Who's your pick and why?
Clay: Cowboys. The defense has been roughed up badly this season, but the good news is that some relief could be on the way once the likes of Sean Lee, Leighton Vander Esch, Chidobe Awuzie, Anthony Brown and perhaps even Randy Gregory (suspended) return. Meanwhile, the offense is loaded with talent and has put four-plus touchdowns on the board in three consecutive games. It might be with a 7-9 record, but Dallas is the favorite.
Fowler: Eagles. They still have one of the best defensive line rotations in football. I still trust Jim Schwartz and that front more than any other defense in the division. They will get healthier by midseason, giving Carson Wentz more weapons. And despite obvious accuracy issues, Wentz's toughness is showing in big moments. At his absolute lowest point, he has grinded out late-game first downs against Cincinnati and San Francisco. And he carried the team late last year, giving him some street cred in his own locker room to get things right.
Graziano: Cowboys. No, of course I don't like their defense. What's to like? But I don't like any of the defenses in the NFC East, and I like only one of the offenses. Say what you want, but Dallas knows how to score points. The Cowboys have the best quarterback in the division and maybe the three best receivers. (Terry McLaurin has a case there, but who otherwise?) Half of Dallas' remaining games are against NFC East teams, and I don't think they're going to need to score 40-50 points to win those.
Kimes: Cowboys. The defense is terrible and probably won't get much better (though getting defensive backs Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown back from injury will help), but the offense should. One statistic that caught my eye: Our Bill Barnwell pointed out that the Cowboys have fumbled seven times and lost six of them. That probably will subside some.
Walder: Cowboys. And I don't think it's remotely close. They have a fully functioning offense -- which other team in the division can claim that?! FPI expects Dallas to have the sixth-best offense going forward, compared to the 24th-, 31st- and 32nd-best from the Eagles, Washington and Giants, respectively. Dallas' defensive problems are certainly real, but the offense will be more than enough to make up for them, at least enough so as to fly past the rest of the NFC East.
Yates: Cowboys. I think Philadelphia is comparably talented, better coached and mentally tougher. But man, have the injuries piled up for the Eagles (sadly, a reality they are too familiar with from last season). Dallas' defense won't get decidedly better this season, but it will at least appear incrementally better once they reach some of the divisional slate of games within their schedule.
Are you buying or selling the Cleveland Browns as legit contenders in the AFC?
Clay: Selling as legit competition to Kansas City and Baltimore, but same as during the offseason, buying as a wild-card team. Cleveland has put at least 35 points on the board in three consecutive games and, while the competition has been light (Cincinnati Washington, Dallas), you really can't expect much more. Of course, Cleveland was also trounced 38-6 by Baltimore in Week 1. Kevin Stefanski has this team running on all cylinders right now, and this might be the best Cleveland team we've seen in decades.
Fowler: Selling (for now). The Browns are much improved and look like a fringe playoff team, but I need to see more before forecasting true contention. They looked lost against the one good team they've faced (Baltimore), and despite star power on defense with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, a 30th-ranked passing defense needs reinforcements. Kevin Stefanski's balanced attack gives Baker Mayfield much-needed structure, so I might be swayed after a few weeks.
Graziano: Buying. The Nick Chubb injury is worrisome, of course, but no team has a deeper running back room. And the way the revamped offensive line is playing, I believe the Browns can continue to churn out yards on the ground and be a tough team to play. Myles Garrett is playing as well as anyone in the league on either side of the ball, and the defense should get healthier in the coming weeks. They might be only the third-best team in their division, but they're a legit playoff contender either way.
Kimes: Selling, though I do think they're a playoff team. I think Cleveland, with its dominant ground game, is headed in the right direction; I just don't believe they're on the same tier as Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo. The pass defense is still woefully inconsistent, though it could improve some when cornerback Greedy Williams returns.
Walder: Fully buying. Strong pass blocking -- plus a dash of the patented Kevin Stefanski rollout left -- has helped Baker Mayfield, who is above average in QBR and Next Gen Stats' completion percentage over expectation. And the ground game! Normally I'd scold an offense for running as much as the Browns do, but when they are running as efficiently as they are -- fueled by a top-2 run-blocking unit -- I don't hate it.
Yates: Selling, but hear me out. Why should our expectation be for them to contend within a conference that features arguably three of the four best teams in the league (Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh)? The Browns have an uphill battle just to make the playoffs this season. But that's not the measure of success that I'm most concerned with for this organization. This team has been a rudderless ship for 20 years and the league leader in nothing but losses. We've seen glimmers of hope before, but it finally feels as if there is a cohesive head coach and general manager duo in place that has a vision of what the process will be like to build this team into one we can eventually call a contender. Browns fans should be thrilled but realistic. Things are on the rise.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 5.
Clay: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings. Again! OK, so Jefferson is red-hot and has been a top-10 fantasy WR over the past two weeks, but you might be wondering if the rookie's production will continue. At least in Week 5, I think it will. Seattle's defense has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season both overall and against the perimeter, which is where both Jefferson and Adam Thielen have primarily aligned over the past two weeks.
Fowler: Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. He's playing Dallas. That's enough of a selling point. The Cowboys are giving up 32.3 points per game. Jones can get hot in spurts, and a rivalry game presents the chance to go off.
Graziano: Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers. I got in here late this week and saw Field took my first choice. Always knew Field was smart. Anyway, I like Jackson because I see opportunity in his future. Joshua Kelley has been the guy behind Austin Ekeler all year, but I don't think it's automatic that Kelley gets more work just because Ekeler is hurt. I know for a fact Anthony Lynn believes in using two backs. I've talked to him about it many times. The Chargers like Jackson, they just wish he could stay healthy. As long as he is, I think he and Kelley can both be productive while you wait for Ekeler to heal.
Kimes: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington. Thus far, Gibson has looked more explosive as a pass-catcher than a back, but I'd look for him to carry the ball with more success against a Rams defense that has allowed nearly 5 yards per carry so far this season.
Walder: Devonta Freeman, RB, Giants. Looking around at my fellow panelists' answers, there's a pattern: We all want to take on that Dallas defense. I'm not high on Freeman's season-long prospects, but after shouldering the most carries last week and against a soft run stop unit, he's worth a shot.
Yates: Darius Slayton, WR, Giants. After speaking with multiple sources, I have confirmed that the Cowboys' defense is truly disastrous. For those who had optimism about the Giants' offense coming into this season, Sunday feels like the day that we'll actually be able to see it come alive. I don't expect 40-plus points from the G-Men, but I do think Slayton is in for a usable fantasy day.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: A.J. Brown, WR, Titans. Assuming Brown is back from a knee injury off the team's Week 4 bye, Brown will have his hands full with potential shadow coverage via Tre'Davious White. Brown aligns on the perimeter 89% of the time, which means it's very possible he'll be forced to run all but a handful of routes against Buffalo's star corner. He'll be a risky play in his first game back.
Fowler: Tim Patrick, WR, Broncos. He's a trendy fantasy play after 113 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, but the Patriots' cornerback tandem of Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson will clog receiving lanes, forcing Brett Rypien to distribute the ball cleanly. Tight end Noah Fant could be the biggest beneficiary.
Graziano: Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Only the 49ers have given up fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than the Steelers have. Remember them shutting down Saquon Barkley in Week 1? Remember Saquon Barkley? The Eagles' passing game doesn't have a lot going on right now, and I think a rested Steelers defense coming off their surprise bye locks in on the run game and slows down Sanders this week.
Kimes: Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins. After a hot start to the season, Gesicki struggled against a depleted Seattle secondary. I don't expect him to bounce back against a Niners defense that has held tight ends to the second-lowest yards per play in the league.
Walder: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns. Feels scary to bet against him after his game last week, but the difficulty level is about to kick up three notches against this Indianapolis defense. Xavier Rhodes has been elite thus far this season, and while the Colts play sides with their corners, that means at least some of the time Beckham will draw him.
Yates: Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals. The good news is that Drake did not suffer an injury at the end of last week's game. He got the wind knocked out of him, according to Adam Schefter. But his usage this season has been alarming so far, as he has only five targets through four games. That's fewer targets than he averaged per game after being acquired in a trade by the Cardinals last season. He's also averaging fewer than 4 yards per carry.
Which team will end up with the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft?
Clay: Jets. This franchise has it all: an 0-4 record, questionable roster management, suspect coaching (with an in-season change seemingly probable), weak spots at most positions and injuries and opt-outs by multiple players of significance. Did I get everything? Probably not. By my metrics, the Jets have the third-hardest remaining schedule. It's going to be a long winter in New York.
Fowler: Jets. There's not a layup win for them on the schedule. Week 4 against Denver should have been that. The Jets are getting offensive pieces back but now Sam Darnold is dealing with a sprained shoulder. At least the winless Giants were competitive against a quality team such as the Rams, plus they play in the worst division.
Graziano: Giants. I just don't see how they're going to score without Saquon Barkley for the rest of the year. As bad as the Jets and Broncos looked Thursday night, at least you could see some receiver talent on the field. And Drew Lock and Le'Veon Bell are probably coming back at some point soon. There's no cavalry coming for the Giants. I have to give them credit for playing spunkier defense than we've seen from them in recent years, but I don't see much to like from the offense, and I think they'll struggle all year to score in what is so far a very high-scoring league.
Kimes: Jets. According to FPI, they've got the second-hardest remaining schedule. The Giants are obviously in the mix, too, but their defense has been feistier than I expected and it doesn't feel as if they have a lame-duck head coach.
Walder: Jets. It's a lacking roster supporting a disappointment of a quarterback coached by a lame duck. But there is hope, Jets fans! Lose just right, and Trevor Lawrence will be wearing green and white.
Yates: Jets. Other than their offense and defense, the Jets don't have many holes right now. The team lacks creativity and any sort of playmaker on offense, with Sam Darnold fighting for even an inch of room on nearly every drop back. The defense has no consistent pass-rush, hardly an impact player in the secondary and is far too susceptible to completely careless decisions that result in negative plays (see Week 4).