Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season was painful. Literally.
Torn ACLs claimed the No. 2 overall picks from the 2018 (Saquon Barkley) and 2019 (Nick Bosa) drafts, and other injuries put several other stars and starters out for various lengths of time.
Our panel of experts is here to sift through the carnage and help you with Week 3's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers. We also asked our experts about the huge Monday Night Football matchup, who has been the best player through two weeks, and which team has the best defense so far.
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Chiefs-Ravens on Monday night. What's the individual battle you're most excited to see?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Patrick Mahomes vs. the surging Ravens defense. Did Mahomes have a down game in Week 2? Is that even possible? The Chargers certainly did a nice job containing Mahomes and the Chiefs' explosive offense, and now Kansas City will face off with an elite Baltimore defense that has allowed a league-low 22 points while forcing a league-high five turnovers through two weeks.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill vs. Ravens CB Marcus Peters. The great speedster vs. the great gambler. Hill and Peters can create splash on every snap and love to battle for the ball downfield. The Ravens might decide to put Marlon Humphrey on Hill and let Peters roam for picks in the open field. For either guy, Cheetah's burst is the ultimate test of pass-coverage mettle.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman vs. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. There's no secret to what Baltimore wants to do on offense. The Ravens want to run the ball, and run it again. The Chiefs gave up 183 rushing yards to the Chargers on Sunday in a game they needed overtime to win and have allowed 301 rushing yards so far in two games. If Baltimore can control the game on the ground (and if it's willing to go for it on fourth-and-short in overtime rather than punting it to Mahomes like the Chargers did), the Ravens have a chance to come out of there 3-0.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Mahomes vs. the Baltimore front seven. Last week, the Chargers' fearsome pass-rush made Mahomes (and his offensive line) look human in the first half -- largely without sending extra rushers. The Ravens manufacture much of their pressure by blitzing, which teams are generally afraid to do to Mahomes. I'm curious to see how Baltimore goes after him.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Ravens defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale vs. the Chiefs' pass protection. Last season Martindale choreographed an unblocked pass-rusher on 192 plays, most in the league. The Ravens lead the category again in 2020. If it's possible to stop Mahomes, getting a free rusher on him seems like a good start.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: The Ravens' cornerbacks vs. the Chiefs' wide receivers. Blue chippers, speed, dynamic playmakers, mismatches. These two groups have it all. We'll see whether Sammy Watkins is available after leaving early due to a head injury in Week 2; if he is, it's just another layer of intrigue to this high-quality tilt.
What's your top upset pick for Week 3?
Clay: Vikings (+2.5) over Titans. Minnesota is off to a painfully slow start, but it's hard to imagine that an offense that was so efficient last season and a Mike Zimmer-led defense will continue to struggle this badly. Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr are out, but the defense still has star power and the secondary was a little bit better against the Colts in Week 2. The Titans showed in Week 2 that they can be scored upon, allowing 30 points to the Jaguars.
Fowler: Texans (+3.5) over Steelers. The Texans aren't a bad team. They just had the misfortune of opening the season with the Chiefs and Ravens, who are better. The Steelers are probably better, too, and their vaunted pass rush is the perfect matchup for a Texans line that allowed eight Deshaun Watson sacks. But Houston will have more urgency, knowing an 0-3 start would dwindle its playoff hopes in a hurry. Expect some Watson magic to avoid that.
Graziano: Packers (+3) over Saints. It's time to get on the bandwagon here. I mean, Matt LaFleur is 16-4 as a head coach. Green Bay has scored 85 points in two games. Aaron Rodgers looks locked in, Aaron Jones looks unstoppable, and as great as New Orleans is, the Saints' best receiver is either going to miss this game or play hurt. (And they didn't look all that great Monday night anyway.)
Kimes: Packers (+3) over Saints. Despite the loss to Las Vegas, I still like the Saints' defense and think they could slow down this high-flying Packers offense a bit, but I am seriously concerned about the offense after what we've seen so far from Drew Brees. I just don't see how they keep up with Aaron Rodgers without challenging downfield.
Walder: Rams (+2) over Bills. I'm all the way in buying the Rams' resurgence. Los Angeles ranks in the top two in usage of motion at the snap, play-action and designed rollouts. It's all there to help Jared Goff, and it's working.
Yates: Lions (+5.5) over Cardinals. The Cardinals have been so impressive up to this point and the Lions have been closer to the opposite. Little about my feel for this game suggests the Lions should win, but they've been up by 10 or more points in four straight games and squandered all of those leads. They're due for a win soon, but I will probably regret this pick on Sunday evening.
Who's your pick as the NFL's best defense this season?
Clay: Steelers. We knew entering the season that Pittsburgh was stacked defensively with a core led by Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden. So far, so good as the Steelers rank no lower than second in interceptions, sacks, tackles for loss and yardage allowed, while also allowing the sixth-fewest points through two weeks.
Fowler: Steelers. There's not one weak link on that side of the ball for Pittsburgh -- all 11 can get sacks or create turnovers. Dupree and Watt are playing as well as any edge-rush duo in the league. Talking about this gets me excited for the Week 7 clash with the Ravens, a familiar foe with a similarly stocked defense.
Graziano: Ravens. Fully recognizing that I might look foolish if Patrick Mahomes lights them up in prime time on Monday Night Football, there's no downgrading anything Baltimore has done on defense so far this year. The Ravens have playmakers on all three levels.
Kimes: Steelers. It's a little hard to judge them given the competition they've faced, but the depth at every level is undeniable. The front seven play every down with their hair on fire, and T.J. Watt is an early frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year.
Walder: Ravens. They rank first in efficiency -- which is expected points added with garbage time down-weighted -- and did it against two decent offenses. It's kind of incredible that they can be this good even after cutting future Hall of Fame safety Earl Thomas.
Yates: Ravens. A defense that is both stout up front against the run and just littered with playmakers all over the yard. Their toughest challenge of the season comes this Monday night vs. the Chiefs.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: Robert Woods, WR, Rams. The Rams are traveling to Buffalo this week to face one of the league's best pass defenses. Los Angeles' No. 3 receiver slot remains unsettled, which positions Woods as its clear top perimeter receiver. This week that figures to mean shadow coverage from one of the game's best corners. Tre'Davious White is off to a terrific start and has allowed only 50 yards on 70 coverage snaps.
Fowler: Melvin Gordon III, RB, Broncos. Gordon has started hot in Denver with 148 yards and a touchdown on 34 attempts, but the Broncos' injury issues could affect his bottom line this week. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in rushing defense and will dare Jeff Driskel to win with his arm.
Graziano: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs. The Texans rushed for 118 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry in Week 1 against the Chiefs. They rushed for 51 yards and averaged 3.0 yards per carry in Week 2 against the Ravens. The Browns rushed for 215 yards and 6.1 per carry in Week 2 against the Bengals after rushing for 138 and 5.1 in Week 1 against the Ravens. As I said above, I believe this to be an extremely good Baltimore defense that will find a way to throw something at the Chiefs' dynamic rookie that he hasn't seen before.
Kimes: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons. While his team is 0-2, Ryan has actually played extremely well, and Atlanta's offense has kept it in both games. I suspect that changes this weekend, when he goes up against a stout Bears defense that has allowed the third-lowest QBR so far this season.
Walder: Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills. Jalen Ramsey was targeted just twice and allowed zero receptions when he was the nearest defender to the receiver last week, per NFL Next Gen Stats. If he's getting hot, I don't want the wide receiver facing him next.
Yates: David Johnson, RB, Texans. Johnson faces an unenviable Week 3 challenge in the form of the Steelers' vaunted defensive front. Pittsburgh was especially dominant in Week 1, but largely contained Melvin Gordon in Week 2 as well. No team is allowing fewer rushing yards per game in this early season, and Johnson had a much quieter Week 2 than Week 1.
Which player has impressed you most so far this season?
Clay: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. The Bills are operating the league's game-script-adjusted pass-heaviest offense (seriously) through two weeks, and Allen has answered the bell. Compared to last season, the third-year quarterback has improved his completion percentage (59% to 70%), YPA (6.7 to 9.0) and off-target rate (22% to 16%). He leads the NFL in passing yards and is fourth among QBs in rushing yards. I realize he faced weak Dolphins and Jets defenses, but so far, so great for the improving quarterback.
Fowler: Cam Newton, QB, Patriots. Nearly the entire league wrote him off, the Superman cape effectively stripped from his shoulders. Not so fast. Newton's arm strength looks just fine, and he has led an inspired Patriots offense to 821 total yards and 51 points despite questionable depth at the playmaking spots. Newton leads the NFL with 15 completions of 10-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus.
Graziano: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. Chalk pick here, but sometimes it's best not to overthink these things. Through two games, Wilson has completed 83% of his passes (52-for-63) for 610 yards and nine touchdown passes to six different receivers. He also has 68 yards on eight carries. He has thrown one interception, but it clanked off Greg Olsen's hands on the first possession of Sunday night's game, and Wilson obviously recovered well. The perennial MVP candidate who famously never has won the award could be on track for even bigger things this year than we're used to seeing from him. Which is saying a lot.
Kimes: Cam Newton, QB, Patriots. Wilson is the early MVP pick, but Newton walked into a New England team with little time (or money!) and looks like he has been running the offense for years. Through two weeks, he has shown that he's healthy and can beat you with both his arm and his legs, making quarterback-needy teams across the league look extremely shortsighted for not signing him.
Walder: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. I've been sitting here looking for another choice, but Wilson is the true answer and I'm sticking with him. That Wilson has been unleashed and maintained his level of amazing -- even against the New England secondary -- dramatically changes the outlook for the Seahawks' 2020 season.
Yates: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. When we submit these answers each week, we do so through a Google document, meaning that we can see the responses of those who acted faster. Often times I'll try to pivot from an answer that someone else has already posted in order to offer a different perspective and analysis. Graz got in first and wrote about Wilson and I simply have no other player to promote. He has been beyond descript.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 3.
Clay: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys. Lamb's NFL career is off to a good start, with the rookie currently sitting eighth in routes, 12th in receiving yards and 25th in fantasy points among wide receivers. Lamb, who has more targets than Michael Gallup, is set up with a good Week 3 matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the most to the slot. Lamb has aligned in the slot on 92% of his routes and will face off with Seattle's backup slot corner Ugo Amadi throughout Sunday's game.
Fowler: A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. You might be ready to bench Green after an ugly 22-8 target-to-catch ratio, but give him one more week. He's still the top option in an offense that's finding success in empty-set formations, which means more passing attempts. And he needed two games to find his rhythm after missing all of last season. He has lost a half-step, but his fastball is still better than most.
Graziano: Dion Lewis, RB, Giants. Odds are decent that your fantasy team got hit by injuries this weekend, especially at running back. With Saquon Barkley done for the year, I expect Joe Judge's Giants to lean hard on a player Judge knows from his time in New England. Lewis is the Giants' pass-catching back, but they like him on early downs, too. San Francisco's front is banged up enough that there could be some soft spots for Lewis, but still good enough that Daniel Jones will be facing pressure and checking it down. I think this is a spot for Lewis to show something.
Kimes: Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins. Gesicki is quickly turning into Ryan Fitzpatrick's favorite target, with eight catches last week for 130 yards; now he faces a Jacksonville defense that has been soft vs. tight ends.
Walder: Darrell Henderson Jr., RB, Rams. With Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown banged up, this looks like an opportunity for Henderson. And it's a solid one: The Rams rank ninth in run block win rate and their opponent, the Bills, are 21st in run stop win rate.
Yates: Corey Davis, WR, Titans. Davis isn't on the lock-it-in radar as of yet, so we'll bring his name up for two reasons: He has had a solid start to the season with 10 catches in two games and scored in Week 2, plus his matchup is so good. The Vikings' defense has been brutal through two weeks -- atypically so.