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Experts predict Week 2 NFL upset picks and fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus buy/sell from Week 1

Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season went at least as well as anyone could have expected if not better, unless you were Mike McCarthy and Vic Fangio. Our panel of experts is thirsty for more, and they're here to help you with their thoughts on Week 2's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.

We also asked our analysts which players and teams they're buying -- and selling -- after closely watching Week 1. Dive into what they think of Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Josh Jacobs and more.

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What's the Week 1 performance you're buying to continue for the rest of the season?

Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. Jacobs racked up three rushing touchdowns in the Raiders' Week 1 win, while posting 139 total yards on 29 touches. He's a prime fit for Jon Gruden's offense as a downhill runner with the physical traits to handle heavy volume. And we could see Jacobs contribute more as a receiver after catching 4 of 6 targets on Sunday.

Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: Chase Young, DE, Washington Football Team. Look, the guy was the No. 2 overall pick, so it's not exactly breaking news that he's spectacularly talented. But Young was so dominant in his debut (he was credited with 1.5 sacks) that one has to wonder how great he'll be once he actually learns about the tendencies of the tackles he'll face each week. On this one, Washington chose wisely.

Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. I can't guarantee he is going to throw four touchdown passes per game, as he did Sunday against the Vikings. But this unique season favors veteran quarterbacks who are comfortable in their offenses and can stay a mental step ahead of their opponents. Rodgers will be slicing and dicing defenses all season.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. In complete command of the offense, Murray showed why he's a dark horse MVP candidate this season: He posted a career-high 91 rushing yards and a touchdown and has already established a best friendship with receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who posted 14 catches for 151 yards.

Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Sam Darnold, QB, Jets. He posted a 19.3 QBR against the Bills on Sunday, and I'm buying that poor performance. The last time Darnold cracked the top 20 in QBR in either college or the pros was all the way back in 2016. At this point it would be a hefty upset for him to end up a good quarterback.


What's the Week 1 performance you're selling to continue for the rest of the season?

Bowen: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears. Trubisky tossed three touchdowns in the fourth quarter on Sunday to bring the Bears back in a road win over the Lions. However, I still see issues in Trubisky's game that will continue to limit his ceiling as a thrower. That's the inconsistent mechanics and ball location, plus his lack of feel in the pocket.

Reid: Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles. With the Eagles' roster decimated by injuries down the stretch last season, Wentz was a wizard in leading the team to the playoffs. But he was downright awful after leading Philadelphia to a 17-0 lead in a 27-17 loss to Washington. I just don't see even one repeat clunker this season from Wentz. He's too good to do that again.

Seifert: Washington Football Team. After a Week 1 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the easy storyline is that new leadership has jump-started a massive turnaround. The reality is that the Eagles imploded after losing three starting offensive linemen and one replacement, magnifying Washington's strength on the defensive line. It won't be that easy every week.

Yates: Defense, Vikings. It was unrecognizable on Sunday against the Packers, and that's going to change in a hurry. There was no mystery surrounding the Vikings' inexperience at cornerback, but I've seen Mike Zimmer work magic with secondary play in the past. I'm not expecting anything close to this from Minnesota again soon. Especially when Danielle Hunter returns (as soon as Week 4).

Walder: Washington Football Team. Even in a victory, the pass protection was poor and Dwayne Haskins recorded the lowest completion percentage over expectation of any quarterback this week, per Next Gen Stats data. I have very little faith in Washington to be anything other than a bottom-five squad.


What's your top upset pick for Week 2?

Bowen: Bengals (+5.5) over Browns. I'll go with Cincy in the upset win on Thursday night after watching rookie QB Joe Burrow in Week 1. The LSU product was quick to process the field and deliver the ball in-rhythm.

Reid: Texans (+7) over Ravens. Yeah, I know. The Ravens already appear to be in playoff form, and Houston was a mess against Kansas City. But look for Deshaun Watson to outduel Lamar Jackson as the Texans get in the win column.

Seifert: Patriots (+4) over Seahawks. We have to calibrate what we think about Seahawks home games for as long as they are played at an empty CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are a strong team in their own right, but the idea of Cam Newton and the Patriots going into Seattle and winning seems a lot more reasonable without the "12s" making life miserable for them.

Yates: Vikings (+3) over Colts. In an earlier answer, I posited that the Vikings will not repeat their woeful defensive performance from Week 1 again anytime soon. And I expect them to avoid an 0-2 hole by upsetting Indianapolis on the road this week on the strength of another productive day from Dalvin Cook.

Walder: Vikings (+3) over Colts. Minnesota both had and has the better offense here. And while Aaron Rodgers roasted Mike Zimmer's defense in Week 1, I'm very skeptical of a Colts secondary that includes former Viking Xavier Rhodes, who was off-the-charts bad in 2019.


Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Bowen: Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. Gordon could see an increased workload with Phillip Lindsay banged up, however, I'm not sold on the matchup versus the Steelers' defense. In Week 1, Pittsburgh held running back Saquon Barkley to 6 yards on 15 carries.

Reid: Sam Darnold, QB, Jets. He's supposed to take a big step forward this season, but his progress wasn't evident in an opening loss to the Buffalo Bills. Things won't improve against San Francisco.

Seifert: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, and Matt Breida, RB, Dolphins. I don't see the Dolphins getting much going against the Bills' defense, which was dominant in Week 1 against an admittedly tame Jets offense.

Yates: Frank Gore, RB, Jets. While Gore is in line to start against his old team the 49ers, I'm extremely tepid on the outlook. I love Frank Gore and hope he gets a gold jacket in Canton one day, but after watching the Jets' offense in Week 1 and imagining what it will look like against another excellent 49ers defensive front this Sunday, I'm avoiding Gore, even if he's due for 12 to 18 total touches.

Walder: Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks. It's early and a departure from last season, but in Week 1 Seattle graded out poorly in our new run block win rate metric. One thing that held true from 2019: the Patriots being one of the best run-stopping units in the league.


Which team has the most to worry about after its Week 1 loss: The Bucs, 49ers, Eagles, Vikings or Cowboys?

Bowen: Eagles. After blowing a 17-0 lead to Washington in a bad Week 1 loss, the Birds get the Rams in Week 2. And this Philadelphia team headed into the new season already banged up at key positions.

Reid: Eagles. No-brainer here. Only in Week 2, their injury situation is already brutal. They'll have to rely on Wentz to overcome a lot even earlier this season.

Seifert: Eagles. Their issues at offensive line are well documented and aren't going to go away quickly. They've already lost two top starters for the season, and right tackle Lane Johnson's short-term availability remains in question. Johnson's replacement, Jack Driscoll, was injured in Week 1 as well. It would be tough to expect any offense to function at a high level under those conditions.

Yates: 49ers. But hear me out: I think the 49ers are the best team among these options, and I'm not overly worried. I fully expect them to be 2-1 entering Week 4 and possibly 5-1 after a three-game homestand. I highlight the 49ers only because the NFC West is the deepest division in football and I expect us to look back in December and realize just how much every game contributed to the playoff race in a loaded NFC.

Walder: Eagles. Wentz's interceptions and minus-10% completion percentage over expectation were concerning. But the sacks were full-on alarming. Sure, they were dealing with injuries, but some of those starters aren't going to be back. If Wentz remains under that level of duress, the offense won't be able to survive.


Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 1.

Bowen: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers. After posting 96 yards and a touchdown on four receptions in Week 1, I'd look at Valdez-Scantling as a WR3 in deeper leagues for this Sunday's matchup versus the Lions. Detroit is a heavy man-coverage defense, and they are dealing with multiple injuries at the cornerback position.

Reid: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers. He's the obvious choice. For a WR, having Aaron Rodgers gain confidence in you is a great way to quickly shed the label of being a fringe fantasy player.

Seifert: Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. The Dolphins gave up 217 rushing yards in Week 1 to the Patriots. The Bills are likely to rely on the ground game in their first road trip of the season, with Singletary and quarterback Josh Allen leading the way.

Yates: Scotty Miller, WR, Buccaneers. Miller posted five catches for 73 yards in Week 1, both good for second most on the team. While the Buccaneers' offense didn't hit maximum velocity last Sunday, I expect a much better performance this week against an inexperienced Carolina secondary.

Walder: D/ST Browns. Myles Garrett vs. Bobby Hart is just unfair, and Joe Burrow actually did take sacks at an average rate at LSU last season. So I expect sacks to provide a nice floor here, with upside for more, because Garrett's not the only talented player on that defense.