Ready for the full slate of 2020 NFL games on Sunday? Our panel of experts is here to help, predicting Week 1's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.
We also asked our analysts for their MVP picks -- yes, Patrick Mahomes gets mentioned, but he's not alone -- for what they're watching in the Bucs-Saints game and to make a few more picks ahead of the season.
Dive into what our analysts think of Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Robby Anderson, Devin Singletary and more players.
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Stake your claim for the season. What's the one prediction you want to put on the record now?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: The Lions will win the NFC North for the first time since 1993. I'm cheating a bit here because my projections show Minnesota with a slight edge in the division after acquiring pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue. It's basically a toss-up, though, with Detroit (and Green Bay) within the margin of error. The Lions were already on the verge of a step forward last season, hanging around .500 prior to Matthew Stafford's season-ending injury. They followed with a good offseason, adding defensive help with Jeff Okudah, Desmond Trufant, Duron Harmon, Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton while adding running back D'Andre Swift in the draft.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Aaron Rodgers will have his best season since his 2014 MVP campaign. The Rodgers spite season is on. The Packers are trying to replace the legend with Jordan Love, and Rodgers isn't having it. Drafting Love in the first round is just what Rodgers needs to elevate his performance after pedestrian (for his standards) output the past three years.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Cam Newton's Patriots will win their division, while Tom Brady's Buccaneers will not win theirs. I'm not counting Bill Belichick out until I see it, and as much as I like and respect what Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are putting together in Buffalo, I'm going with a refreshed and motivated Cam over the still-erratic Josh Allen. Brady and the Bucs could snag a wild-card spot, but the NFC South still belongs to the Saints.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: The Patriots won't win their division for the first time in more than a decade. Before fans get mad at me, I still have them making the playoffs! But this defense faces an uphill battle after losing a boatload of talent to free agency or opt-outs (according to Pro-Football-Reference.com data, New England lost the most approximate value on defense of any team since the 2001 Ravens). I have the deep and balanced Bills winning the AFC East.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Kevin Stefanski will win coach of the year. It's set up perfectly for him: Cleveland underperformed under Freddie Kitchens in 2019, so expectations are fairly low, despite the fact the roster (outside of quarterback) is absolutely loaded and shored up its few gaps in the offseason. I'm bullish on all things Browns in 2020.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: David Johnson will prove a ton of people wrong (and I wrote that before his performance on Thursday night, when he had 109 yards from scrimmage with a TD). He was an easy target this offseason following the trade in which he was shipped from Arizona to Houston along with a second-round pick for DeAndre Hopkins. Johnson has some potential in a Texans offense laced with explosive upside. I expect a determined and motivated DJ to look much more like the touchdown-maker we saw early in his career.
What's your top upset pick for Week 1?
Clay: Bengals (+3) over Chargers. Can first-overall pick Joe Burrow win his NFL debut? I think so. Granted his offensive line could be a problem, but Burrow will have a top-end group of skill players led by a healthy A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati's defense is improved and should have a slight leg up on a Chargers offense that remains shaky along the line, downgraded at quarterback and might not have receiver Mike Williams. Week 1 home underdogs have struggled in recent seasons, but perhaps Cincinnati will be the exception.
Fowler: Cardinals (+7) over 49ers. Arizona played San Francisco tightly in both contests last season, and the Cardinals spent the offseason improving their roster for this very moment. The 49ers will be just fine but could start slowly after dealing with injuries in the preseason. The Cardinals must find a way to curb Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw for 741 yards in two meetings in 2019.
Graziano: Bears (+3) over Lions. In five career games against the Lions, Mitchell Trubisky is 3-2 with a 70.1 completion percentage and 11 touchdown passes against four interceptions. That's nearly double the number of touchdown passes he has thrown against any other opponent. (He threw six against the Buccaneers one seemingly apocryphal Sunday afternoon in 2018.) If you believe what's coming out of Chicago about training camp, Trubisky looks vastly improved. And yeah, we've heard that before, but this is the opponent he plays the toughest.
Kimes: Rams (+3) over Cowboys. I'm extremely high on this Dallas offense, but the news that right tackle La'el Collins is headed to injured reserve has me slightly worried, especially because they already have to move on from Travis Frederick at center. I also suspect Sean McVay has some tricks up his sleeve for Week 1 and will find ways to exploit a Dallas secondary with several vulnerabilities.
Walder: Buccaneers (+3.5) over Saints. Don't sleep on Tampa's defensive advantage -- seventh in defensive efficiency with a young group last year! -- in this one. And while it's possible 2019 was the start of Brady's career descent, going from Julian Edelman and nothing to the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL might turn back time. Don't forget he's not the only old quarterback playing in New Orleans on Sunday, either.
Yates: Falcons (+1.5) over Seahawks. One of the primary factors many have noted could contribute to early-season success is continuity in key spots. The Falcons are set to return an offense littered with familiar faces and a line that has all the pieces in place to control the line of scrimmage every week. Seattle has to travel across the country -- something that it has adeptly managed in the past -- but a pass rush with question marks might not be enough to disrupt Matt Ryan and slow down this offense.
Bucs at Saints, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET: What's the one thing you're most excited to see in this game?
Clay: The Bucs' defense. All eyes are on the new-look, Tom Brady-led offense, but what about a defense that finished last season strong and could be the breakout unit of 2020? Tampa has an intriguing combination of veterans (Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Ndamukong Suh) and emerging youth (Vita Vea, Devin White, Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards were all Day 1 or 2 picks during the past three drafts).
Fowler: Bruce Arians' plan of attack for the Bucs' offense: How the Bucs handle a Brady-led attack will be fascinating to watch unfold. With serious talent at wide receiver and tight end, does Arians let his quarterback air it out? Or will they smartly rely on defense and the running game to help Brady, whose decline last season suggests he could use it? Week 1 finally provides some clarity.
Graziano: Drew Brees. Frankly, having covered the Saints' playoff loss to the Vikings, I think there's more reason to be concerned about Brees tailing off this year than there is Brady. To be clear: I'm not saying either one will have a bad year. But the way Brees played in that game was eye-opening, and I'm always a little curious when a quarterback mulls retirement and decides to come back. I'm still on the Saints, but there's something in the back of my mind that wouldn't be totally stunned if this turned out to be one year too many for Brees.
Stephen A. Smith breaks down why Lamar Jackson will be more of a rival to Patrick Mahomes than Deshaun Watson.
Kimes: Brees struggled toward the end of last season, culminating in a poor performance against a ferocious Vikings defensive line. I'm curious to see how his arm is holding up, and whether a Bucs pass rush that basically ran it back with the same personnel gives him similar issues.
Walder: How Arians' vertically oriented offense meshes with Brady's less-than-vertically-oriented arm. I assume Arians is the one who will be making the larger adjustment, but what will that look like?
Yates: History. While Brady and Brees won't be on the field for even a single snap together, this is a historic Sunday: It will mark the first time that opponents each started a quarterback over the age of 40. While many quarterbacks have aspirations of playing well into their fifth decade, we should not take for granted how remarkable these two still are having already arrived at that milestone.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys. One catch for 19 yards on two targets. No, that's not a Week 1 stat projection for a reserve wide receiver. It's Cooper's total production when he faced Jalen Ramsey and the Rams in Week 15 last season. Ramsey shadowed Dallas' top wideout, covering him on 15 of his 20 routes. Ramsey also limited Cooper to one four-yard catch on 30 routes when they met in 2016. Expect Cooper to struggle and Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb to benefit in Los Angeles this week.
Fowler: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns. A healthy Beckham should improve in 2019, but the Week 1 matchup isn't great. He struggled against Baltimore with a combined six catches for 64 yards in two games last season. Marlon Humphrey is physical with him. Coach Kevin Stefanski could rely on his potent running game in a physical AFC North debut, and Baker Mayfield will be looking to Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper for easy, quick throws against Baltimore's pass rush.
Graziano: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. This is all about the opponent. Since Mike Zimmer became coach of the Vikings in 2014, Rodgers has played Minnesota twice per year (other than in 2017, when he was hurt). So that's 10 games, and in those games, Rodgers has passed for more than 300 yards just one time. He has reached 250 passing yards in only three of those games. He has thrown more than one touchdown in five of them. The Packers' record is 6-3-1 in those games, so it wouldn't be a surprise if Rodgers found a way to win the game. But unless QB wins is a big fantasy stat in your league, Rodgers might not be your guy this week.
Kimes: DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins. While I'm skeptical of the notion that New England's defense is going to look as dominant as it did last season, the vaunted secondary is largely intact -- and Stephon Gilmore is still the best cornerback in football. Parker broke out in a big way last season, finishing as the 11th-ranked wide receiver, but he could get off to a slow start.
Walder: Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. Do you know which defense led the league in EPA/P against the run last season? That's right -- the Jets. Shocked me, too. If you could choose one thing to be good at ... that's probably not it. But hey, a strength is a strength and it stands in Singletary's way Sunday.
Yates: Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. I'll say this now and allow it to apply for the season ahead: Flop is a relative term. It doesn't always mean to bench this guy or even that his day will prove fantasy unworthy. Rather, it's a reflection that the sledding will be tougher than most weeks. Along those lines, Jones faces a massive test against a nasty Steelers defense in Week 1, though Danny Dimes is poised for a huge fantasy season.
Who's your pick to win MVP this season?
Clay: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals. I'll stick with my bold prediction that Murray will follow in the footsteps of the past two MVPs (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) and break out in a big way in his second NFL season. The 2019 first overall pick also will benefit from coach and playcaller Kliff Kingsbury entering his second season at the pro level, as well as from the arrival of superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins.
Fowler: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions. Picked him months ago and am staying true. He was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 scores a year ago, has plenty of weapons and is still an elite talent. If Detroit's defense can keep up, Stafford should be firmly in the MVP mix.
Graziano: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Best player in the league, on what looks like the best team. Don't overthink it.
Louis Riddick and Damien Woody debate whether the Cowboys can make the playoffs under a new coaching staff.
Kimes: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Barring something unexpected, this will probably be my answer for the next few years. He's the best quarterback in the NFL, and he plays for one of the best playcallers of all time, in an offense that returns all of its most productive pass-catchers. Good luck finding flaws in his game.
Walder: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys. In 2018 under Mike McCarthy, the Packers dropped back to pass at a higher rate than any team in the league. That's a good thing for Dallas -- and for Prescott's stats -- especially given his killer trio of wideouts in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb.
Yates: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It has been exactly 40 years since a Kansas City Royal won the AL MVP (George Brett), but I would like to offer up that we consider counting Mahomes' -- now a part-owner of the team -- MVP awards toward that total. He's the runaway pick for me.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 1.
Clay: Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers. Both Anderson and coach/playcaller Matt Rhule are making their Carolina debuts this weekend, but Anderson figures to benefit from both his new coach's receiver-friendly scheme and a matchup against Las Vegas' inexperienced perimeter corners. The Raiders are expected to enter the week with 2019 second-round pick Trayvon Mullen and 2020 first-round pick Damon Arnette on the outside. That's a lot of pedigree but only 630 combined NFL snaps. Expect Anderson and running mate DJ Moore to benefit.
Fowler: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts. The Colts' two-back system hurts Mack's fantasy stock, and the Jonathan Taylor hype is real, but Indy could lean on experience in Week 1. Mack had his way with Jacksonville's 28th-ranked rushing defense a year ago with 186 yards on the ground along with three touchdowns.
Graziano: DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. He is the de facto No. 1 wide receiver in Philadelphia right now due to injuries to Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor. And in Week 1 last season against Washington, Jackson had eight catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns. I don't see where Washington's secondary has improved from last year. And considering that Jackson got hurt a week later and missed the rest of the season, I believe Carson Wentz has been dying to try this out again.
Kimes: Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers. Johnson flashed last season despite some pretty dismal quarterback play; he now gets to catch passes from Ben Roethlisberger, against a Giants secondary this week that looks like one of the league's worst.
Walder: DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. Washington corners Ronald Darby and Kendall Fuller each allowed completion percentages of more than 10 points over expectation last season, and both were even worse on passes 10 yards downfield. With Reagor out, Jackson should get plenty of targets.
Yates: Chris Thompson, RB, Jaguars. The Jaguars are sorting through a thin backfield right now, but Thompson has a defined skill set that will ensure his role is steady week to week. He's an awesome pass-catcher, and while Jacksonville will be frisky this season, the Jaguars are likely to be overmatched in many weeks and Thompson will be their go-to back when going up-tempo and needing to pick up yards through the air in a hurry.