They are, all three, fixtures in their longtime NFL homes. Philip Rivers has been a Charger since 2004, and their starter since 2006 without missing a single game since that time. Drew Brees, whom Rivers supplanted in San Diego way back when, has been a New Orleans Saint since 2006, and delivered the franchise its lone Super Bowl title 10 years ago. Tom Brady, a three-time MVP and a six-time Super Bowl champion, has been a New England Patriot since the team famously drafted him in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL draft.
It is difficult to picture any of the three wearing a different uniform, and difficult to picture any of their three teams without them.
Yet, as the 2020 offseason dawns, each of these three venerable veterans is eligible for unrestricted free agency, and the real possibility exists that each of these three teams has a different starting quarterback next season.
Based on conversations with various NFL team executives and agents about the coming free-agent market, let's take a look at all three cases and the chances that Brady, Brees and Rivers move on from their teams:
Tom Brady
2019 stats: 24 TD passes, 8 INTs while completing 60.8% of his passes; 53.7 Total QBR (17th in NFL)
Brady turns 43 in August, but he has made it clear he's not interested in retiring, so we can get that one out of the way up front. His contract is set to void, making him a free agent, and his agreement with the Patriots specifies that they cannot use the franchise tag on him. This obviously helps Brady's leverage in talks with the only franchise for which he has ever played, and the sense around this situation is that that will matter.
Sources say Brady is looking forward to being a free agent and all that comes with it -- the pitches from teams and potentially visits from or to teams. And the Patriots are going to have to pitch him. Even though he knows everything there is to know about their program, their culture and what his day-to-day life will be like if he re-signs, Brady is coming off a season in which the New England offense ranked 23rd in yards per play, 26th in red zone efficiency and 18th in yards per attempt. He needs to hear from the team how it plans to make the offense better in 2020.
There are ways for the Patriots to do this, of course, but it could take them out of their financially balanced comfort zone. Signing a free-agent wide receiver like A.J. Green and a free-agent tight end like Austin Hooper would be a way to convince Brady the offense will be more explosive in 2020, but the Patriots don't usually pay top-of-market prices for the best free agents. Team owner Robert Kraft has said he wants Brady back, but we haven't heard from Bill Belichick on this (and likely won't), and it's fair to wonder who gets to make the final call on how hard to push to bring him back.
There's also the matter of Brady's contract, which has famously come in under market value for much of his career as he has taken less than he could in order to help the team make other financial decisions to keep the roster balanced and competitive. The Patriots could throw a bunch of money at Brady to try to keep him, but a couple of sources close to the situation said that wouldn't be a deciding factor. Brady already has earned about $235 million in salary in his career, and that's in addition to countless endorsement dollars. His wife is an international supermodel who is also exceedingly wealthy.
Where could he go?
You have to look for a team that is convinced it's a veteran quarterback away from a Super Bowl run. The Los Angeles Chargers are expected to be in the market, as they continue to believe they have a strong roster in spite of their 2019 flop and are clearly desperate for a marketing jolt as they work to sell tickets in the new L.A. stadium they'll share with the Rams. Rivers isn't expected back with the Chargers, and while they have other options, including backup Tyrod Taylor and the No. 6 overall pick in April's draft, their marketing department has to be salivating over the opportunity to slap Brady's picture on their season-ticket mailers. One football-side reason to wonder if this is a fit, though: Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is said to have favored moving on from Rivers for a while now in search of a more mobile option at quarterback. Brady is certainly not that.
The Las Vegas Raiders also are expected to make a run at Brady if he gets to free agency. The ticket sales projections in Vegas appear robust, but Raiders coach Jon Gruden thinks he has a ready-to-contend roster along with two first-round picks to help make it even better. It has long been believed in league circles that Gruden isn't fully sold on Derek Carr and would upgrade at quarterback if he could. And while Brady isn't any team's long-term answer, he could potentially help the Raiders make a splash in their early years in Vegas while they continue to seek and/or develop a young quarterback to take his place.
Other, more remote possibilities include the Tennessee Titans if they decide Ryan Tannehill isn't the guy they want to pay, the Indianapolis Colts if they decide they can't trust Jacoby Brissett with an otherwise strong roster and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they don't re-sign Jameis Winston.
The takeaway: Most of the league insiders to whom we spoke think Brady will be back in New England or out west with the Chargers or Raiders.
Drew Brees
2019 stats: 27 TD passes, four INTs while completing 74.3% of his passes; 71.7 Total QBR (third in NFL)
Brees just turned 41 last month and has earned nearly $245 million in NFL salary in his career, and the question here is whether he wants to keep playing at all. He has made it abundantly clear that if he plays again, it will be for the Saints. He took a team-friendly deal in free agency two years ago instead of testing the market, and the expectation is that he'd do something similar this time around if that's what it takes to stay. He's a Saint until he retires, which means the question is when that will be.
There are people close to this situation who say they would be surprised if Brees didn't come back for another run, since he has felt for at least the past three years that the Saints have a team that can win the Super Bowl and he'd like to win a second one before he's done. There also are people close to this situation who believe Brees wants to outlast Brady, even though he's not nearly as outspoken as Brady is about his longevity techniques. Obviously, the people in these categories expect Brees to re-sign with the Saints, likely on another team-friendly deal that allows him to take it year to year and decide his future based on the way things go.
But at the Super Bowl last week, I encountered more than one person convinced that Brees was seriously considering retirement and at least one who was flat-out convinced Brees was done. If he's drawing interest from TV networks about big broadcasting jobs, spending time with his family and contemplating the amount of work that goes into getting ready for another NFL season, it's not hard to imagine Brees walking away without playing another snap. Two weeks ago, I was convinced he was coming back. But the conversations I had in Miami have me leaning the other way.
Drew Brees tells the Golic and Wingo crew that he wants to take some time and refresh before making a decision on his future.
Where could he go?
If Brees does leave, the Saints are left with a quandary. Do they re-sign backup Teddy Bridgewater, who won five games while Brees was injured in 2019, and make him the starter? Do they transition to a gadget offense with the multitalented Taysom Hill as the starter? Or do they make a run at a free-agent veteran like Rivers, Winston or Tannehill? Veterans such as Carr, Andy Dalton and Cam Newton could be traded or cut this offseason and might be options as well for a Saints team that believes it has the roster to make a deep playoff run in spite of their disappointing first-round playoff exit.
The takeaway: This one is entirely up to Brees, who has to decide whether to try to make one more run with this very good Saints roster or call it a career. I wouldn't discount either possibility at this point.
Philip Rivers
2019 stats: 23 TD passes, 20 INTs while completing 66% of his passes; 48.6 Total QBR (22nd in NFL)
There's less clarity on this situation, though no one to whom I spoke expects Rivers to return to the Chargers in 2020. The question on Rivers is, as one source put it to me last week, "Who's going to want him?" And that's not meant in a mean-spirited way, but rather a legitimately curious one.
He is 38 years old and coming off a bad season. His 23 touchdown passes were his lowest single-season total since 2007. He threw 20 interceptions for the third time in his career, but in the other two seasons in which he did that, his touchdown-pass totals were 27 and 33. His 88.5 passer rating was his lowest in three years and 6.6 points under his career rating. His 48.6 QBR was his lowest since 2012.
In a league leaning harder toward young, mobile, dual-threat quarterbacks, is there a team out there that's going to be hungry to bring in a non-mobile 38-year-old who has never played anywhere else and is coming off one of his worst seasons? Some of the same teams we listed for Brady could make sense. The Colts are coached by Frank Reich, a former Chargers offensive coordinator who knows Rivers well. Tennessee is close to home (Rivers is from Alabama). A few weeks ago, ESPN reported that Rivers had moved his family to Florida, so maybe Tampa Bay makes some sense. Maybe he's Gruden's upgrade on Carr in Las Vegas.
But these are all maybes. And while Rivers hasn't offered any indications that he's considering retirement, you do wonder whether that will creep in as a possibility as he assesses his options. His 2004 draft-mate, Eli Manning, recently retired rather than go out on the market and try to get a starting job with a team other than the one for which he'd played his entire career. It's not crazy to imagine Rivers reaching the same conclusion as Manning did, and hang it up while he still likely has something left. If he can't land a guaranteed starting job somewhere, that possibility becomes even more likely.
The takeaway: Rivers would love to win a Super Bowl before he's done. He's aware that it's the major hole in his record. But Rivers has a large family to consider and has made almost $220 million in salary in his career, so he's probably not going to just take any job that is offered.