Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 15's biggest upsets and potential fantasy sleepers.
Plus, our experts look into the future for Jameis Winston, offer a quick fix for the Browns and name their biggest disappointments of the season.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 15?
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Dolphins (+3.5) over Giants. Under coach Brian Flores, Miami is playing with a level of feistiness we didn't see in the first half of the season. We don't know which quarterback will be starting for New York, but we do know that Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. the Giants' secondary is an attractive matchup for Miami.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated, senior writer: Redskins (+4.5) over Eagles. The NFC East is a complete mess, as evidenced by the fact the woeful Redskins have been the division's most productive team recently. In their previous game, the Eagles trailed the last-place New York Giants by two touchdowns before winning in overtime. The Redskins are poised for their biggest victory of the season.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Bills (+2) over Steelers. It's a small upset but an important one in the AFC playoff race. Both teams have top-five defenses according to Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, but the difference here is on offense: Buffalo is No. 22 and improving over time with Pittsburgh way down at No. 30 and getting worse over time.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Chargers (+2.5) over Vikings. There, I said it. On paper, the Vikings are the better and more motivated team. But weird things happen when the Vikings go west. They're 1-6 under coach Mike Zimmer in the west or in mountain time zones since the start of the 2014 season. If you go back to the start of the start of the decade in 2010, the record is 1-9. It's a thing.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Dolphins (+3.5) over Giants. Miami continues to play hard, despite coming up short at MetLife Stadium this past Sunday against the Jets. Moving the football shouldn't be a major issue against a substandard Giants defense, and this game actually has some fun shootout potential.
Where will Jameis Winston be playing in 2020?
Kimes: Tampa Bay. With general manager Jason Licht still in the building, it seems unlikely that any organization will value Winston more than the one that drafted him. I could see them offering the quarterback a contract like the one Nick Foles got from Jacksonville, which was basically a two-year deal.
Reid: Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers still believe in Winston, and he has had some good moments in his first year under head coach Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Winston also knows he has a strong support system in Tampa Bay. But he'll likely only get one more guaranteed year to finally put it all together.
Schatz: Tampa Bay. I have a feeling that the 2020 quarterback carousel is going to end with most of the players ending up right back where they started. It makes sense to sign Winston to a short-term deal and use him as a bridge quarterback to a youngster possibly drafted in 2020. If the Bucs aren't in the right place to draft a quarterback in the first round, Winston is probably still better than the alternatives.
Seifert: Miami, to compete for the starting job. I understand the investment the Buccaneers have made in Winston and the benefits of his aggressive downfield nature. But I don't believe that Bruce Arians, or any coach who wants to win, can tolerate a player who is leading the NFL in turnovers (28) in his fifth season. It's an ongoing issue that is only getting worse. The Dolphins are the kind of team that might choose him for the short term rather than start a rookie.
Yates: Tampa Bay. I've believed for quite some time now that the Bucs will apply the franchise tag to Winston this offseason. While it's a significant price tag for one year, the reality is that if Tampa Bay feels like it needs to see even more of Winston under Arians' watch, the franchise tag is a short-term solution to buy that time.
You can make one offseason move to improve the Browns. What's your move?
Kimes: Either have Freddie Kitchens hand over playcalling duties so that he can focus on running the team, or move on. All season long, the Browns have struggled not only with execution but also situational errors and decision-making; if they want to stick with Kitchens as head coach, he needs less on his plate.
Reid: Move on from Kitchens. The Browns have been among the league's biggest disappointments, and Kitchens has appeared overwhelmed in many situations. If the Browns do go in another direction, they should look hard at former Panthers coach Ron Rivera.
Schatz: Draft a first-round offensive tackle. There's no easy fix here. The Browns are unlikely to fire any coaches after just one year, and they need to wait out Baker Mayfield's problems to see if he can be the quarterback prospect they thought he was last year. The one thing that would clearly help both short-term and long-term is to fix the offense's biggest hole, and that's at left tackle.
Seifert: Hire a coach based on criteria the Browns clearly didn't use last offseason: leadership, organization and vision. Subordinate the fear that leads teams to seek candidates for narrow purposes, such as to develop a quarterback or install a more aggressive defense. The Browns desperately need someone to shepherd them to the next level.
Yates: Hire Rivera. Rivera's respect around the league was shown this past week following his dismissal by Carolina. He would be an outstanding leader with experience, poise and a demeanor that players seem to gravitate toward.
Fill in the blank: This NFL season, I've been most disappointed by ________.
Kimes: The Philadelphia Eagles. I understand that they've been battered by injuries, notably to high-profile signings Malik Jackson and DeSean Jackson, but that doesn't explain the inconsistency we've seen from this team. What's so frustrating about Philadelphia is that there isn't just one problem, like the secondary struggling. They've struggled with playcalling and execution all season, and the roster isn't as deep as it once seemed.
Reid: The Cleveland Browns. After acquiring superstar wideout Odell Beckham Jr., pass-rusher Olivier Vernon and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, the Browns looked like a strong playoff contender on paper. Which, of course, reminds us why the games are played on the field. Quarterback Baker Mayfield didn't take the big step forward as the Browns hoped. Obviously, big changes are needed.
Schatz: The Los Angeles Chargers. They were my AFC Super Bowl pick at one point this preseason, before injuries and other medical problems hit some of their most important players. But even without some of their stars, there's no excuse for a team that has played an easy schedule and outscored opponents by 36 points to be 5-8. In particular, a team with Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa should not be 26th in ESPN Stats & Info pressure rate.
Seifert: Pass interference review. There were bound to be growing pains in reviewing subjective judgment calls. But it can work, as the CFL has shown. Instead of doing the hard work of establishing a clear standard for reversals, however, the NFL punted for most of the season and refused to overturn obvious mistakes. Those who opposed the experiment can claim victory, but the truth is the NFL hasn't given it a fair shot.
Yates: The defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know, I know, talent dissipated with Jalen Ramsey traded, Myles Jack recently put on injured reserve, and Telvin Smith taking a year away from football. But this group strikes hardly a fear in opponents, a surprising and disappointing turn with key cogs such as Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and a pass-rush featuring Yannick Ngakoue and Josh Allen.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 15.
Kimes: Browns QB Baker Mayfield. The Cardinals are allowing the most fantasy points on average to quarterbacks this year; when Mayfield isn't pressured, he can get into a rhythm, and I don't see the Arizona pass rush giving him too much trouble.
Reid: Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins. The rookie has shown progress. This figures to be his best week yet.
Schatz: Seahawks RB Chris Carson. No defense gives up more points to running backs than Carolina's, and Carson is now the clear starter again after Rashaad Penny suffered a sprained ACL in Sunday night's loss to the Rams.
Seifert: Patriots RB Sony Michel. The well-documented shortcomings of the Patriots' passing game, and the trouble the Bengals have had defending the run, make it pretty easy to guess how this is going to go.
Yates: Browns TE David Njoku. He had just one catch in his return to action this past Sunday, but now he faces the Cardinals' defense, which has had a crater-sized weakness in defending tight ends this season. The Cardinals have allowed more receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends than any other team in the NFL.