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NFL experts predict: Week 3 upset picks, fantasy football flops and sleepers

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Roethlisberger needs surgery, will miss rest of season (1:46)

Chris Mortensen reports on Ben Roethlisberger's impending elbow surgery and recovery time after it was revealed that Roethlisberger will miss the rest of the season. (1:46)

Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 3's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers, and they make a few predictions about the season.

Dive into what our analysts think of who has been dominant, about whom they're worried and more.

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What's your top upset pick for Week 3?

Mike Clay, NFL writer: Cardinals (+2.5) over Panthers. Kyler Murray has led the Cardinals to a tie against Detroit (which just beat the Chargers) and to a six-point road defeat against a Ravens franchise that is now 21-5 all time against teams from the Pacific and Mountain time zones. Murray has produced surprisingly little with his legs, doing a majority of his damage with his arm (the rookie leads the NFL with 94 pass attempts). Expect the Cardinals to get their first win of 2019 now that they're back home against an 0-2 Carolina team that just lost to the Buccaneers.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Cardinals (+2.5) over Panthers. Other than Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Brian Burns, I don't like anything I've seen from the Panthers the first two weeks. And the Cardinals have shown a little something, coming back to tie the Lions in Week 1 and not getting run out of the building by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 1. I say the Kingsbury/Kyler combo gets its first NFL win Sunday.

Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Jaguars (+1.5) over Titans. Jacksonville lost on Sunday, but its defense did a stellar job hassling Deshaun Watson and limiting Houston's aerial attack. Gardner Minshew looked sharp down the stretch. It's a Thursday night game in Jacksonville, so give me the home team in a defensive slugfest.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Browns (+2.5) over Rams. Losing the extra day of prep coming off Monday Night Football isn't ideal -- the Week 1 MNF squads went 1-3 in Week 2 -- but playing the lethargic Jets was basically a rest day. If Cleveland feeds Nick Chubb and limits penalties, the offensive line should be able to do just enough in pass protection, and Myles Garrett will do the rest. The remade Browns get their first signature moment with a win over the defending NFC champs.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Giants (+6.5) over Bucs. Tampa Bay has extended rest and is coming off its own Week 2 win, but I believe the Giants can find their first win of the season. Among the issues that have ailed the Giants this season is a porous pass rush, but the Bucs' offensive tackle play has been vulnerable at times in this early portion of the season. Count me in for a Giant surprise.


Which player has impressed you most this season?

Clay: Bills QB Josh Allen. I was as hard as anyone on Allen following a career at Wyoming that saw him complete only 56% of his passes and average 6.7 yards per attempt in his final season. Allen also struggled as a passer as a rookie, but at least so far, he's been much improved in his second season. Allen has completed 67% of his passes and has posted a healthy 7.6 YPA. Unless the bottom falls out, Allen is well on his way to leading the Bills to a wild card.

Graziano: Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. Patrick Mahomes is the easy answer, but let's keep it to mortals for the purpose of variety. Cook has been running like a man possessed through two games, and as long as he's healthy, the Vikings are going to be able to run their offense the way they want to run it while they hope Kirk Cousins wakes up. Cook is a truly elite back who's playing like it.

Kimes: Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore. While New England's pass-catching corps has received a lot of attention this season, the secondary looks like the best unit in the NFL (admittedly against middling to weak competition). Gilmore, who recorded a pick-six on Sunday, looks as dominant in coverage as he did last season and belongs in any conversation about the league's best defensive players.

Fowler: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner is answering every question. The Ravens have the NFL's top offense through two weeks thanks largely to Jackson's arm. When he's throwing dimes down the sideline and making decisive reads, his running ability will only become more dangerous. A 145.2 passer rating is not bad for a running back, indeed.

Yates: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. He has been efficient, accurate and exceptional. While it has not been against particularly arduous competition, Prescott has played perhaps the best football of his career while some have wondered if the pressure of no new deal -- yet -- would impact his play.


Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Clay: Jets WR Robby Anderson. Gilmore (see Kimes above) shadowed Anderson in both meetings between these teams last season. Anderson totaled five receptions, 46 yards and zero touchdowns on 14 targets. In fact, in six career games against New England, Anderson has been limited to 11 receptions for 133 yards and no scores on 33 targets. Especially with Sam Darnold out, Anderson should be on the bench in fantasy.

Graziano: Jets RB Le'Veon Bell. This isn't about Bell. It's about the Patriots' defense, which is somehow still one of the more underrated units in the league. They've picked up right where they left off in the Super Bowl and should have no problem keying on Bell with the Jets' passing game in tatters.

Kimes: Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. The Rams' run defense has been up and down, but the pass rush and secondary have looked super solid through two weeks, allowing the second-lowest points to wide receivers. I expect them to key in on Beckham in this matchup, forcing Baker Mayfield to look elsewhere for easy gains.

Fowler: Bengals WR John Ross III. He leads the league with 270 receiving yards thanks to multiple 50-plus-yard gains, but the Bills' defense is skilled at limiting chunk plays. The league's No. 2 passing defense hasn't allowed a play longer than 33 yards through two games, and last year that number did not surpass 43. Expect the Bills to keep Ross in front of them and force Andy Dalton to utilize other weapons.

Yates: Lions RB Kerryon Johnson. The pathway to Johnson finding success in Week 3 is going to have to be through the air, as the Eagles' run defense has been downright disrespectful to opposing backs so far. Derrius Guice and Devonta Freeman have combined for exactly 40 yards ... on 21 carries. The Eagles are a dominant force against the run.


Fill in the blank: I'm officially worried about ________ through two games.

Clay: Panthers QB Cam Newton. The Panthers' offense was terrific last season, scoring two-plus touchdowns in 13 consecutive games to open the season. The wheels seem to have fallen off this season, and a lack of rushing production from Newton is a major issue. Consider that Newton entered the 2019 season with four-plus carries in 111 of 123 career games, but has a total of five carries for minus-2 yards this season. Carolina is in big trouble if Newton, who has been off target on a career-high 28% of his throws so far, is no longer a running threat.

Graziano: Panthers QB Cam Newton. Shoulder surgery in the offseason, a foot injury in the preseason, an aggravation of the foot injury in Week 2. Newton is 30 years old now and has been one of the most famously pummeled quarterbacks in the league since he entered it in 2011. The damage NFL injuries do is cumulative, and it's not out of the question that Newton is experiencing the start of a physical breakdown that will make it difficult for him to ever play at his previously stratospheric levels again. I absolutely hope this isn't the case, because he's been one of my absolute favorites to watch since he was at Auburn. But the way he performed in his first two games, coupled with the fact that he couldn't get through them healthy, is cause for serious worry.

Kimes: The Miami Dolphins. Just kidding. I'll echo Mike's sentiment and pick Newton; the quarterback thrived as a passer in Norv Turner's offense during the first half of last season but has looked erratic so far in 2019. In particular, he seems to be struggling throwing to the right, raising questions about his health.

Fowler: Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. Year 3 is a time to thrive, not tread water. Trubisky looks like he took yet another step back during a pivotal turn in his Bears career. With a loaded defense, a creative playcaller and weapons galore, Trubisky has everything he needs. He has time to find his rhythm, but his line of 348 yards and zero touchdowns through two games raises more concerns than Kirk Cousins' shaky start in Minnesota.

Yates: Texans QB Deshaun Watson. And it has nothing to do with his play. Watson is remarkable and electric and getting better by the week, but quarterback hits and sacks remain a huge problem. The last time he was not sacked in a game at least four times was Nov. 18. It's a work-in-progress offensive line that Houston must find a way to figure out.


Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 3.

Clay: Redskins WR Terry McLaurin. The speedy rookie has already taken over as Washington's No. 1 wide receiver. McLaurin has been on the field for 90% of the team's snaps and has racked up 16 targets in two games. McLaurin's three end zone targets tie him for third in the entire league, and his OFP (or expected fantasy point total based on usage) is seventh-highest among wide receivers. McLaurin is squarely in the weekly WR3 mix.

Graziano: Colts RB Nyheim Hines. Remember, no defense gives up receptions and passing yards to running backs the way the Falcons do. This is a trend that goes back at least four years. It's no accident. It's the way their defense is designed. Combine that with the likelihood that the Colts are playing from behind in this one, and Hines looks like a guy you can scoop up off the wire and start if you're in a pinch at running back.

Kimes: Bucs TE O.J. Howard. He entered this season with a lot of hype after a breakout sophomore campaign; so far, he's done very little, and coach Bruce Arians told reporters: "He can play a heck of a lot better." The Giants' lackluster defense gave up two touchdowns to tight ends in Week 1 and offers a ripe opportunity for the talented Howard to bounce back.

Fowler: Seahawks TE Will Dissly. He is a sneaky-good red zone option who found chemistry with Russell Wilson up the seam for two touchdowns in Week 2. Replicating those looks hinges partly on play-action, but luckily for the Seahawks, the Saints' defense is giving up 5.6 yards per carry. Dissly is no star, but he can make contested catches when it counts.

Yates: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel. The Steelers' struggles defending the slot have been apparent since last season, with 2019 not much better so far. Tyler Lockett set a career high with 10 catches in Week 2, while Samuel is coming off a five-catch performance and his first NFL touchdown. He's explosive, agile and going to become a really good player.