NFL Nation reporters are giving early fantasy predictions for every team.
ESPN fantasy football analyst Mike Clay provided the over/unders using his 2019 projections, and each Nation reporter predicted whether one player for each position would hit the number or fall short this season. The full schedule this week:
Monday: Quarterbacks
Tuesday: Running backs
Wednesday: Wide receivers
Thursday: Tight ends
TIGHT ENDS
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ
OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals
Over/under 21 receptions for Charles Clay
Josh Weinfuss' prediction: Under. First and foremost, Clay needs to stay healthy. But it might not matter if he does when it comes to his production. Tight ends aren't heavily used in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, so 21 catches could be the top end of what we could see out of Clay.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/under 579 receiving yards for Austin Hooper
Vaughn McClure's prediction: Over. Hooper had 660 on 71 catches last season, and there's no reason to think he will take a major step back. He's developing into quite the pass-catching threat, and Dirk Koetter will utilize him. Plus Hooper's one-on-one time with Matt Ryan again this offseason only makes the chemistry between the two that much stronger. You'll see Hooper on screens and running option routes, among other things. He'll be a red zone threat, for sure.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under 606 receiving yards for Mark Andrews
Jamison Hensley's prediction: Over. Andrews is the most dangerous target in the Ravens' passing game, and he had instant chemistry with QB Lamar Jackson last season. He's athletic, fast and dependable in catching any pass thrown within his reach. If he can maintain the same production he had in the second half of last season (44.7 yards per game), Andrews will eclipse 700 yards receiving.
Buffalo Bills
Over/under 24 receptions for Dawson Knox
Marcel Louis-Jacques' prediction: Under. The Bills addressed the tight end position this offseason, adding Lee Smith, Tyler Kroft, Knox and Tommy Sweeney. That's a lot of mouths to feed for a position that caught only 55 passes last season. Improved wide receiver play and increased depth at tight end will make it difficult for Knox to make a large impact in his rookie season -- especially after missing a chunk of training camp with a hamstring injury.
Carolina Panthers
Over/under 593 receiving yards for Greg Olsen
David Newton's prediction: Under. Olsen had five straight years of 800-plus yards before his right foot forced him to miss games the past two seasons. He appears healthy and ready to prove to critics he's one of the top tight ends in the league. But Christian McCaffrey, who led all running backs with 107 catches last season, has become more of Cam Newton's security blanket over Olsen. Having speedy wide receivers DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel also will take catches away from Olsen.
Chicago Bears
Over/under 53 receptions for Trey Burton
Jeff Dickerson's prediction: Over. Burton made modest contributions after signing a lucrative deal in free agency. Burton, who had offseason surgery, will likely be featured enough to surpass 54 catches.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 13 games played for Tyler Eifert
Ben Baby's prediction: Under. Injuries have kept the Pro Bowl tight end off the field for a bulk of the past three seasons. During that span, Eifert has played in 14 total games. The Bengals have eased Eifert back into the offensive rotation through training camp, but he will have to buck the three-year injury trend in order to play more than 13 games in 2019.
Cleveland Browns
Over/under 54 receptions for David Njoku
Jake Trotter's prediction: Under. Njoku had 56 catches last season. But the Browns didn't have Odell Beckham Jr., either. Njoku could take a big step forward as a player this season, and yet see his production regress. There's only so much of the ball to go around in Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/under 48 receptions for Jason Witten
Todd Archer's prediction: Over. This is the trickiest one to figure because Witten will not be on the field for virtually every snap, like he had been for most of his career. He had 63 catches in 2017, his final season. He has shown he can still make plays on third down and in the red zone during training camp. This will not be peak Witten but it will still be effective Witten. And QB Dak Prescott trusts him implicitly.
Denver Broncos
Over/under 540 receiving yards for Noah Fant
Jeff Legwold's prediction: Under. He hasn't looked comfortable getting acclimated in the offense and the team's running backs are going to be far more involved in the passing game, no matter how comfortable Fant gets in the scheme. If things go as the Broncos hope, Fant's numbers will increase plenty in the seasons ahead, and he figures to pick up momentum as the season goes along.
Detroit Lions
Over/under 480 receiving yards for T.J. Hockenson
Michael Rothstein's prediction: Over. Rookie tight ends haven't produced well historically and Hockenson isn't the surefire take-all-snaps at the position, either, with Jesse James also needing some work. Eventually Hockenson gets there and ends up building for a breakout year in 2020, but for this season keep expectations in check. He gets to 500 yards, but not much more than that.
Green Bay Packers
Over/under 5 touchdowns for Jimmy Graham
Rob Demovsky's prediction: Over. Teams are going to do everything they can to stop Davante Adams, who caught a career-high 13 touchdowns last season. Don't expect the 10-touchdown season Graham had in 2017, but the expectations are he will easily surpass last season's total of just two TDs.
Houston Texans
Over/under 272 receiving yards for Jordan Thomas
Sarah Barshop's prediction: Under. Thomas will be a red zone threat for Houston, but QB Deshaun Watson has so many other weapons that 272 receiving yards is probably just over what he will contribute, even if he's healthy all season. Jordan Akins, another second-year tight end, has had a good training camp and will take some of Thomas' touches as well.
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under 6 touchdowns for Eric Ebron
Mike Wells' prediction: Over. Ebron's versatility as a hybrid receiver should allow him to have another productive season, but surpassing Rob Gronkowski's single-season touchdown record for tight ends of 17 is a long shot. Even surpassing his 13 touchdowns of last season will be tough. The Colts have a number of talented skill position players and coach Frank Reich's offense is about spreading the ball around. Avoiding locking in on one target is a strong suit of QB Andrew Luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 19 receptions for Josh Oliver
Mike DiRocco's prediction: Under. Hard to pick this one because Oliver is currently out with what coach Doug Marrone called a "significant" hamstring injury. Even if he returns for the season opener, he will have missed the entire preseason and that's valuable experience for a rookie. It will take him time to make up for that and Geoff Swaim is the team's No. 1 tight end, anyway. Plus, Leonard Fournette is going to be more involved in the passing game. Another consideration to go with the under is that James O'Shaughnessy led all Jaguars TEs in receptions last season with 24.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under 10 touchdowns for Travis Kelce
Adam Teicher's prediction: Under. Kelce has posted strong reception and yardage numbers in each of his five NFL seasons but has reached 10 touchdowns just once. Playing with Patrick Mahomes helps his chances of getting there again, but don't expect Kelce to reach that number this year when he barely got to it last season despite career bests in targets, catches and yardage.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/under 7 touchdown receptions for Hunter Henry
Eric D. Williams' prediction: Under. Hunter Henry has been one of the standouts for the Chargers during training camp and appears fully healthy after suffering a torn ACL in his right knee last year, but he'll have to share the wealth with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and eventually Melvin Gordon in red zone touches.
Los Angeles Rams
Over/under 347 receiving yards for Gerald Everett
Lindsey Thiry's prediction: Over. Everett was a standout player during the offseason program and carried that momentum into training camp. A talented tight end with all of the necessary physical traits, Everett has demonstrated an increased knowledge in the offense and it has shown with his increased time throughout training camp with the starters. Jared Goff and Everett have demonstrated improved chemistry and it's easy to envision the third-year tight end improving on last season's 320 receiving yards.
Miami Dolphins
Over/under 51 receptions for Mike Gesicki
Cameron Wolfe's prediction: Under. Everyone is waiting for a Gesicki bounce-back after a disappointing rookie season (22 catches, 202 yards, zero touchdowns), but I haven't seen enough this offseason to make me confident it will happen in 2019. Nick O'Leary looks like the Dolphins' best tight end in camp, with Gesicki having mixed results. Physicality struggles could limit Gesicki to red zone and other situational reps, which could help his touchdown value but it won't help his total receptions.
Minnesota Vikings
Over/under 502 receiving yards for Kyle Rudolph
Courtney Cronin's prediction: Over. The Vikings drafted Irv Smith Jr. in the second round, so that should take away from some of Rudolph's target share, but Kirk Cousins' admitting that he didn't throw to Rudolph enough last year -- particularly in the red zone where he has been really good -- leads me to believe the ninth-year tight end will have more upside in this offense in 2019 to the tune of more than 502 receiving yards.
New England Patriots
Over/under 351 receiving yards for Benjamin Watson
Mike Reiss' prediction: Under. Watson should contribute as a steady presence in the locker room and on the field, but count me skeptical that the tight end position will be a featured aspect of the Patriots' attack in 2019.
New Orleans Saints
Over/under 683 receiving yards for Jared Cook
Mike Triplett's prediction: Over. I'm trying to temper the excitement for Cook, who hasn't always lived up to lofty expectations. And Coby Fleener proved that free-agent tight ends don't automatically post big numbers in New Orleans. But Cook thrived in a similar offense in Oakland last season. He's exactly the type of intermediate pass-catcher the Saints need, and he has looked great on the practice field.
New York Giants
Over/under 786 receiving yards for Evan Engram
Jordan Raanan's prediction: Over. This will happen as long as Engram remains healthy. He almost topped that number his rookie season (722 yards) without Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup. Engram is set to be the Giants' downfield receiving target and has looked explosive so far this summer.
New York Jets
Over/under 35 receptions for Chris Herndon
Rich Cimini's prediction: Over. Herndon produced 20 catches over his final six games last season, so there's no reason he can't top 35 over 12 games. It might take him a minute to get going, coming off a four-game suspension to start the season, but he already has the trust of QB Sam Darnold.
Oakland Raiders
Over/under 406 receiving yards for Darren Waller
Paul Gutierrez's prediction: Over. Jon Gruden's offense likes tight ends, or did you miss Jared Cook catching 68 passes for a team- and career-high 896 yards for a 4-12 Raiders team last season. This year's team should be much improved on offense. While Waller is a physical specimen whose skill set more closely resembles that of a wideout, he has all of 178 receiving yards ... in his career. This might be a risk, but it's one worth taking and one that will pay off handsomely, if Waller stays healthy.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under 93 receptions for Zach Ertz
Tim McManus' prediction: Under. Ertz will still be one of the most productive tight ends in football, but he's sharing the field with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor and Dallas Goedert, who is considered a co-starting tight end. Given all that firepower, there is bound to be a dip from last season, when he set an NFL record for most single-season catches by a tight end with 116.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under 655 receiving yards for Vance McDonald
Jeremy Fowler's prediction: Over. Expect his 72-target total from a year ago to increase. McDonald has a rapport with Ben Roethlisberger, who looked to his tight end multiple times in a recent goal-line drill in training camp. In 2018, McDonald posted a career-best 50 catches and 610 yards despite playing in an offense with three Pro Bowl skill guys. With one of those now gone, McDonald can help fill the void.
San Francisco 49ers
Over/under 1,143 receiving yards for George Kittle
Nick Wagoner's prediction: Under. It's no knock on Kittle to say he will come up short of this number considering just 11 tight ends in the NFL have posted more than 1,143 receiving yards in a season since 2001. Assuming health, he should surpass 1,000 yards again and remain the Niners' top target in the passing game, but defenses will game plan to slow him more this season and the Niners have added additional options that should lower Kittle's output, even if the offense as a whole is improved.
Seattle Seahawks
Over/under 471 receiving yards for Will Dissly
Brady Henderson's prediction: Under. Dissly showed during his abbreviated rookie season that he was much more than just a blocking specialist. However, the eight catches and 156 yards he accumulated in his four games came while Ed Dickson was sidelined. Dissly could end up playing the most snaps of any Seahawks tight end in 2019, but assuming Dickson isn't cut, a run-heavy offense like Seattle's will have only so many targets to share among those two plus Jacob Hollister, a receiving tight end whom Seattle acquired in a post-draft trade.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under 797 receiving yards for O.J. Howard
Jenna Laine's prediction: Under. Howard has yet to make it through a full season healthy and only four tight ends eclipsed 797 receiving yards last year -- George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Jared Cook. Only one of those player's teams had a 1,000-yard wide receiver (Kelce) and on every one of those teams except for the Chiefs, those tight ends were their team's leading targets. There are only so many places the ball can go, and Cameron Brate should at least put a dent in those targets.
Tennessee Titans
Over/under 56 receptions for Delanie Walker
Turron Davenport's prediction: Over. Marcus Mariota has always gone to Walker in the past because of the separation the veteran tight end created. Excluding last season (Walker was injured in the season opener), the Mariota-to-Walker combination posted a five-year average of 71.2 completions per season. That shouldn't change given how Walker has slimmed down and is quicker in and out of his breaks. Having former tight ends coach Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator should lead to Walker's number being called frequently.
Washington Redskins
Over/under 58 receptions for Jordan Reed
John Keim's prediction: Over. He has topped this total only twice, but those also happened to be his healthiest seasons. Yes, he's often injured and that's always the fear with Reed -- he missed a combined 13 games the past two years, though 10 occurred in 2017. In three of the past four years, he has played at least 12 games. If he does that again, he'll top this total. Reed has been the talk of training camp because of how well he's exploding out of breaks. It's the best he's looked in camp for several years. This passing game remains centered around him.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ
OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals
Over/under 867 receiving yards for Christian Kirk
Josh Weinfuss' prediction: Under. Looking back at how receivers fared under Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech, there was usually one receiver with a great year -- sometimes well over 1,000 yards -- and then the second- and third-most-productive receivers had a couple hundred yards fewer. It's expected that Larry Fitzgerald will be Arizona's WR1 with Kirk being WR2, but with the amount of talent the Cardinals will have in the receiving room, it's hard to predict who'll have the next-best season after Fitzgerald. Kirk will get his, undoubtedly, but it likely won't top 867 yards.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/under 887 receiving yards for Calvin Ridley
Vaughn McClure's prediction: Over. Ridley had 821 receiving yards last season on 64 catches, and that came as a rookie still learning the system. He should be the unquestioned No. 2 target behind Julio Jones this season. Plus, the Falcons are counting on Ridley to have even more explosive plays down the field, particularly with the deep inside breaking routes in which he can use his catch-and-run ability.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under 646 receiving yards for Marquise Brown
Jamison Hensley's prediction: Under. History says it's tough for rookie wide receivers to contribute immediately, and Brown's learning curve is steeper considering he missed all of the spring offseason workouts and the first week of training camp because he was recovering from January foot surgery. Only one wide receiver has totaled more than 525 yards receiving as a rookie for Baltimore, and that was Torrey Smith (841) in 2011. Plus, Lamar Jackson has shown more of an affinity for throwing to his tight ends.
Buffalo Bills
Over/under 650 receiving yards for John Brown
Marcel Louis-Jacques' prediction: Over. And not just by a little bit, either. Brown has established himself as a vertical and intermediate threat; he had 715 yards with the Ravens last season. The chemistry between Brown and QB Josh Allen has been obvious early on in training camp, and if that bond translates to the regular season, Brown could have a career season.
Carolina Panthers
Over/under 5 total touchdowns for DJ Moore
David Newton's prediction: Over. Moore is set for a breakout year. After a slow start to his rookie season, he was the team's top wide receiver in the final eight games. His ability to make yards after the catch is a big reason the Panthers made him their first-round pick in 2018, and that will help get him into the end zone at least six times.
Chicago Bears
Over/under 891 receiving yards for Allen Robinson
Jeff Dickerson's prediction: Over. Robinson is finally healthy after battling injuries most of 2018. Mitchell Trubisky and Robinson have a clear connection.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 985 receiving yards for Tyler Boyd
Ben Baby's prediction: Over. In 2018, Boyd had a breakout season that earned him a four-year contract extension worth $43 million. The 2016 second-round pick caught 76 passes for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He is Cincinnati's No. 2 receiver, but he's currently Andy Dalton's top passing option with A.J. Green out with an ankle injury. Once Green recovers from surgery, Boyd should have more space to work with on the field.
Cleveland Browns
Over/under 1,251 receiving yards for Odell Beckham Jr.
Jake Trotter's prediction: Over. Whether it was Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook or Marquise Brown at Oklahoma, or Jarvis Landry with the Browns last season, QB Baker Mayfield has always fed his go-to wide receivers. And not only is OBJ now healthy, he seems motivated after feeling "disrespected" after the New York Giants traded him.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/under 1,144 receiving yards for Amari Cooper
Todd Archer's prediction: Over. Based on what he did in nine games in 2018, he would have had 1,288 yards in a full season. With more time working with QB Dak Prescott, his numbers should remain about the same and defenses should have a difficult time just focusing on taking him away with Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and Jason Witten in the mix, too.
Denver Broncos
Over/under 774 receiving yards for Courtland Sutton
Jeff Legwold's prediction: Over. He has dropped too many passes and hasn't always looked crisp in his routes during training camp. Toss in a practice fight with Emmanuel Sanders and it's been a rocky summer for the second-year wide receiver. Still, he had 704 receiving yards last season, and it would be a fairly big disappointment if he doesn't perform well enough to at least approach 900 yards receiving.
Detroit Lions
Over/under 1,040 receiving yards for Kenny Golladay
Michael Rothstein's prediction: Over. Golladay hasn't hit this number in his career, but he would have last season had he played in the finale against Green Bay. He has more experience now and should get more downfield opportunities in Darrell Bevell's offense. Golladay had 50 or more yards receiving in six of his last seven games in 2018 and averaged 70.9 yards a game. Provided he stays healthy and Matthew Stafford returns to form, he should get a good amount of work -- and occasionally benefit from teams choosing to focus on Marvin Jones instead of him.
Green Bay Packers
Over/under 52 receptions for Geronimo Allison
Rob Demovsky's prediction: Over. Allison is slated to be the No. 3 receiver. Over the past three seasons, the Packers' No. 3 receiver finished with 38, 53 and 60 catches.
Houston Texans
Over/under 62 receptions for Keke Coutee
Sarah Barshop's prediction: Under. The Texans will hope this number is way over, but it's hard to bet on Coutee playing in all 16 games after looking at his 2018 season. Coutee, who suffered a minor ankle injury during Thursday's preseason game, will be valuable in the slot for quarterback Deshaun Watson. The second-year receiver missed so much time last year with injuries to both hamstrings that it's hard to count on him to show up for the entire season.
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under 602 receiving yards for Devin Funchess
Mike Wells' prediction: Over. Funchess could be this year's Eric Ebron, a player who didn't have an overly impressive start to his pro career, but is able to bounce back playing with QB Andrew Luck in coach Frank Reich's system. Funchess is another big red zone target who should have success running shorter routes while the defense is playing over the top to try to contain the speedy T.Y. Hilton and rookie Parris Campbell.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 783 receiving yards for Dede Westbrook
Mike DiRocco's prediction: Over. Westbrook had 717 yards receiving last season with no running game and terrible quarterback play. The QB play will certainly be better in 2019, and Westbrook has thrived in John DeFilippo's new offense thus far. Marqise Lee is coming off a severe knee injury, and there's no way to know how effective he will be when he returns. Westbrook has emerged as the No. 1 receiver.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under 1,278 receiving yards for Tyreek Hill
Adam Teicher's prediction: Over. Hill cleared this hurdle easily last season for the first time, but there's a good reason for that: He was playing with Patrick Mahomes for the first time. Barring an injury, it's reasonable to believe Mahomes will find Hill often and the two will produce a lot of big plays again.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/under 915 receiving yards for Mike Williams
Eric D. Williams' prediction: Over. With Tyrell Williams joining the Raiders in free agency, Mike Williams has moved into the starting lineup and should be the Chargers' top vertical threat this season. That will mean more targets for what should be a breakout year for the Clemson product.
Los Angeles Rams
Over/under 69 receptions for Cooper Kupp
Lindsey Thiry's prediction: Over. Kupp returned to full-time practice eight months after he underwent reconstructive knee surgery to repair a torn ACL and has shown no signs of lingering effects. "It sounds crazy, but he looks more explosive than he was before," coach Sean McVay said a few days into training camp. Kupp looks like a player who can improve on his 40 receptions in eight games last season.
Miami Dolphins
Over/under 676 receiving yards for Albert Wilson
Cameron Wolfe's prediction: Under. For all of Wilson's explosiveness and yards-after-the-catch ability, he has never surpassed 554 receiving yards in a pro season. He was on pace to shatter that number last season before suffering a significant hip injury in Week 7 -- an injury that he hasn't recovered fully from just yet. Also, the Dolphins are deep at receiver, so expect them to spread the ball around. The hope is Wilson will be ready by Week 1, but there's uncertainty surrounding his health and whether he can be that game-changing player right away.
Minnesota Vikings
Over/under 89 receptions for Adam Thielen
Courtney Cronin's prediction: Under. This is no knock on Thielen, but given the number of weapons Kirk Cousins has, the team's commitment to running the ball and how the wide receiver's production dipped when Kevin Stefanski took over playcalling duties for the final three games of last season (10 catches for 137 yards and no TDs on 12 targets), I'd expect Thielen to hit the under on receptions in 2019.
New England Patriots
Over/under 50 receptions for N'Keal Harry
Mike Reiss' prediction: Under. Going with the under is simply based on the history of rookie receivers in the Patriots' system. The best season for a rookie receiver in Bill Belichick's previous 19 seasons as Patriots coach was Deion Branch's 43-catch season in 2002. Harry should see a lot of action, but betting on more than 50 receptions seems risky until he consistently proves he can reliably catch the football.
New Orleans Saints
Over/under 374 receiving yards for Tre'Quan Smith
Mike Triplett's prediction: Over. I would caution fantasy owners expecting a breakout from Smith, who battled inconsistency as a rookie and still needs to prove he can handle a significant role, especially now that Ted Ginn Jr. is back healthy. But 374 yards seems manageable for the second-year wideout.
New York Giants
Over/under 940 receiving yards for Sterling Shepard
Jordan Raanan's prediction: Under. The Giants are running the "village" offense. They're going to spread the ball around. While Shepard might be the 1A or 1B wide receiver, it's entirely possible Saquon Barkley leads the team in receptions with Eli Manning as the quarterback most of the season. That and the potential for injuries keep Shepard just under 940 yards.
New York Jets
Over/under 7 touchdown receptions for Robby Anderson
Rich Cimini's prediction: Over. Anderson scored six times last season in a poor offense that struggled at times with a rookie QB, so it's fair to expect at least two more TDs with better coaching and better quarterback play.
Oakland Raiders
Over/under 103 receptions for Antonio Brown
Paul Gutierrez's prediction: Under. If Brown's frostbitten feet are not healed enough for him to play early on, he can't get along with his new helmet and the Raiders get off to a slow start, he would be a nonfactor. Of course, we're talking about a guy who has averaged 104 catches the past three seasons, so we might be looking at a push. It's just that it would be so much easier to take the over were Brown healthy, happy and had not missed two weeks of training camp getting his feet (presumably) fixed.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under 753 receiving yards for DeSean Jackson
Tim McManus' prediction: Over. He had 774 yards in 12 games for Tampa last season. Back in Philly, he's motivated to ball out. Though QB Carson Wentz has a lot of mouths to feed on offense, he'll be slinging it deep to Jackson plenty.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under 50 receptions for James Washington
Jeremy Fowler's prediction: Under. Washington appears to be in more command of the offense; his confidence is high. That should result in better production. But 50 catches is probably asking too much with Donte Moncrief also set for a big role on the outside, rookie Diontae Johnson showing promise in camp and veterans Ryan Switzer and Eli Rogers serving as trusted Ben Roethlisberger targets in the slot.
San Francisco 49ers
Over/under 808 receiving yards for Dante Pettis
Nick Wagoner's prediction: Under. While Pettis has a real chance to emerge as the Niners' most productive wide receiver, that doesn't mean he will be the most productive pass-catcher. Coach Kyle Shanahan likes to spread the ball around, and with a strong corps of pass-catching backs and a star in the making in tight end George Kittle, it will be hard for Pettis to go much beyond 800 yards, which would still constitute a successful second season.
Seattle Seahawks
Over/under 6 total touchdowns for Tyler Lockett
Brady Henderson's prediction: Over. But it might not be over by much. He'll no longer have Doug Baldwin there to command defenses' attention, which means two things must happen for Lockett to match his 10 touchdowns from 2018: offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has to find creative ways to get him favorable matchups, and others such as DK Metcalf have to pose enough of a threat to keep Lockett from getting blanketed by double-teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under 964 receiving yards for Chris Godwin
Jenna Laine's prediction: Over. He started only five games last season splitting that role with DeSean Jackson and still wound up with 842 receiving yards on 42 catches. Bruce Arians has said "he's not coming off the field" and even predicts he could be a 100-catch receiver. Considering he's now lining up in the slot in addition to his role outside and he has been getting some decent yards after the catch in practice, Godwin looks poised to have a big year.
Tennessee Titans
Over/under 753 receiving yards for Corey Davis
Turron Davenport's prediction: Over. Davis was on pace for a 1,000-yard season despite all of the inconsistencies on offense last year but finished with 891 yards. The third-year receiver worked on refining his route running and attacking the football during the offseason. Marcus Mariota seems to be developing trust in Davis to throw him the ball even when he's covered. That should lead to more opportunities to make big plays.
Washington Redskins
Over/under 684 receiving yards for Paul Richardson
John Keim's prediction: Under. The Redskins love his speed and what he can add to the offense when healthy, something he never was last season. But that has also been the knock on his career. They have young receivers they like, which will cut into Richardson's time and productivity. While Richardson has flashed in camp at times, the quarterbacks have struggled to always connect with him. He'll help, but the Redskins will spread the ball around to a lot of receivers, and that will limit his yardage total.
RUNNING BACKS
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ
OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals
Over/under 60 receptions for David Johnson
Josh Weinfuss' prediction: Over. The expectation is that Kliff Kingsbury will use Johnson as Bruce Arians used the running back in 2016, when he caught 80 passes for 879 yards. But with how quickly the Cardinals are expected to try to run their offense, the number of opportunities for Johnson to see passes thrown his way will go up. Arizona wants to run about 90 to 95 plays per game, Johnson said in the spring. He is the most important piece of the offense next to quarterback Kyler Murray.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/under 11 touchdowns for Devonta Freeman
Vaughn McClure's prediction: Under. Not that Freeman isn't capable of hitting the mark; in fact, he had 11 rushing touchdowns in 2015 and 2016. Freeman looked fresh coming off last year's season-ending core-muscle injury, but the Falcons have many scoring options. And they could call on a bigger back such as rookie Qadree Ollison or Brian Hill in goal-line situations.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under 32 receptions for Mark Ingram
Jamison Hensley's prediction: Over. Ingram has the seventh-most catches by a running back since 2014 (204), averaging 40.8 receptions per season. Even though that all came with the Saints, Ingram will be utilized as a receiver in his first season in Baltimore. The Ravens want to give Lamar Jackson more high-percentage throws this season, and Ingram is a big factor in that.
Buffalo Bills
Over/under 168 touches for LeSean McCoy
Marcel Louis-Jacques' prediction: Under. McCoy recorded the fewest carries (161) in 2018 since his rookie season (155). Although the team still believes he can play, he will have to split the load with veteran Frank Gore and Devin Singletary. The rookie out of Florida Atlantic is a good bet to take over as the Bills' primary weapon out of the backfield by season's end.
Carolina Panthers
Over/under 1,792 scrimmage yards for Christian McCaffrey
David Newton's prediction: Over. The goal is to get McCaffrey more touches than he had in 2018, when he fell just short of becoming the third player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He did this with an injury-plagued offensive line and quarterback with a sore right arm. Those issues appear fixed. McCaffrey's offseason workout program has him stronger and faster than a year ago, so the numbers should go up.
Chicago Bears
Over/under 231 touches for David Montgomery
Jeff Dickerson's prediction: Under. There are too many weapons on offense. Montgomery will split time in the backfield with Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 1,597 scrimmage yards for Joe Mixon
Ben Baby's prediction: Over. Expect the former Oklahoma running back to have another big season. Yes, the Bengals' offensive line isn't great, but Mixon could be the focal point after he rushed for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns in 2018. Given the injury issues with Cincinnati's top passing options, Mixon could see his targets increase in Year 3, which bodes well for fantasy owners.
Cleveland Browns
Over/under 275 touches for Nick Chubb
Jake Trotter's prediction: Over. This would have been tougher had the Browns not traded away Duke Johnson Jr. But until Kareem Hunt returns from his eight-game suspension, Chubb is going to be Cleveland's backfield workhorse. And given his ability to catch passes, too, he's going to be touching the ball a lot.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/under 13 total touchdowns for Ezekiel Elliott
Todd Archer's prediction: Under. And it has nothing to do with his holdout. It has to do with what should be a more varied attack, especially in the red zone. Elliott will top the six rushing touchdowns he had last season but not come close to the 15 he had as a rookie. Count on Elliott having double-digit touchdowns, but he won't be able to crack 13.
Denver Broncos
Over/under 172 touches for Royce Freeman
Jeff Legwold's prediction: Over. He had 144 touches last season with two missed games and Phillip Lindsay getting 192 carries in the offense. The Broncos will frustrate plenty of those playing fantasy football with their share-the-load philosophy in the run game, as they will certainly move backs in and out of games, but right now, Freeman projects to be the early-down back in the offense and all of the backs, Freeman included, will be far more involved in the passing game in the team's new offensive scheme. The Broncos have even flashed a personnel grouping on offense with two ball carriers, like Lindsay and Freeman, in the backfield at the same time.
Detroit Lions
Over/under 60 receptions for Kerryon Johnson
Michael Rothstein's prediction: Under. Johnson is going to be a premier option for the Lions, particularly after the release of Theo Riddick, but 60 catches might be a high bar. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has other receiving options and Detroit is going to likely monitor his touches at least early. Add in that if Ty Johnson can emerge as a receiving back (he has the speed for it), that could take some chances away, too.
Green Bay Packers
Over/under 245 touches for Aaron Jones
Rob Demovsky's prediction: Under. As much excitement as there is about what Jones can do in this offense, coach Matt LaFleur is quickly finding out why Jones hasn't broken out yet. After knee injuries prematurely ended his first two NFL seasons, Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the preseason opener.
Houston Texans
Over/under 270 touches for Lamar Miller
Sarah Barshop's prediction: Under. Duke Johnson Jr. will take away some touches from Miller, particularly in the passing game. Miller will still get the majority of Houston's rushing attempts but is unlikely to reach 270 total touches.
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under 31 receptions for Marlon Mack
Mike Wells' prediction: Under. Mack isn't known for his pass-catching ability. Nyheim Hines, a receiving threat while at NC State, will likely be the running back on the field on passing downs for the Colts. Hines had 63 receptions, which was third overall on the team, as a rookie in 2018.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 1,433 scrimmage yards for Leonard Fournette
Mike DiRocco's prediction: Under. Fournette's injury history plays into this (nine of the 11 games he's missed over the past two seasons were because of injuries) and it would be illogical at this point to expect him to stay on the field for 14 or more games in 2019. Fournette will be a bigger part of the pass game than he has in the past in John DeFilippo's offense, so he could surpass that number if he is able to play 14-plus games. Just doesn't make sense to predict that.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under 1,125 scrimmage yards for Damien Williams
Adam Teicher's prediction: Under. It's difficult to predict a huge season for Williams. He's never been a featured back for a full season, the Chiefs have some depth at his position and he missed most of the first two weeks of camp because of a sore hamstring.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/under 255 carries for Melvin Gordon
Eric D. Williams' prediction: Under. Even before his holdout, the Chargers planned to reduce Gordon's workload for the upcoming season. Now that there's a threat of the Wisconsin product possibly missing regular-season games due to a contract dispute, it seems fair to take the under here.
Los Angeles Rams
Over/under 285 touches for Todd Gurley
Lindsey Thiry's prediction: Under. Gurley will remain the focal point of the Rams' offense, but the team must be smarter with his workload if they want him to last deep into the season and the playoffs. Last season, Gurley had 315 touches despite sitting out the final two games of the regular season. In 2017, he had 343 touches. Expect some of those touches this season to be spread around to Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson.
Miami Dolphins
Over/under 203 touches for Kenyan Drake
Cameron Wolfe's prediction: Under. Drake hasn't eclipsed 173 touches in a season since high school. Durability has been a question, and though he promises to be in better shape to withstand a larger workload, Dolphins offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea aims to use a multiback system. My projection for Drake is 200 touches, but he's more likely to finish under that mark thanks in part to splitting time with Kalen Ballage.
Minnesota Vikings
Over/under 313 touches for Dalvin Cook
Courtney Cronin's prediction: Over. Minnesota wants to place a heavier emphasis on its rushing attack, which bodes well for fantasy owners who draft Dalvin Cook. He's also fully capable of catching passes out of the backfield and helping ignite the screen game. Injuries have limited Cook to 15 games over the past two seasons, and now that he's fully healthy with zero restrictions, it's time the Vikings utilize the running back as they envisioned when they drafted him.
New England Patriots
Over/under 12 total touchdowns for Sony Michel
Mike Reiss' prediction: Over. Michel was a hammer close to the goal line last season, doing some of his best work in the playoffs (6 touchdowns). While it remains to be seen what the identity of the Patriots' offense will be this season, protecting Tom Brady with a running game that sets up play-action opportunities in the passing game makes a lot of sense. So Michel, assuming good health, should be a central piece of the attack.
New Orleans Saints
Over/under 205 carries for Alvin Kamara
Mike Triplett's prediction: Over. I want to say "under" since Sean Payton has made it clear he isn't planning a major increase in touches for Kamara now that Mark Ingram is gone. But Kamara averaged 12.5 carries per game last season even when Ingram was on the field, and he would need only 13 per game to hit this number. "It will be similar to what we've been seeing," Payton said last week. "I think our pitch count and how we've played and used him has been really good."
New York Giants
Over/under 290 carries for Saquon Barkley
Jordan Raanan's prediction: Over. He had 261 carries as a rookie. Now the Giants are set to put an even bigger focus on both Barkley and the running game. He should top 290 carries and 400 total touches.
New York Jets
Over/under 1,749 scrimmage yards for Le'Veon Bell
Rich Cimini's prediction: Under. Bell is not in Pittsburgh anymore. He won't get 406 touches, as he did in his last season for the Steelers in 2017. He won't be as efficient as he was in Pittsburgh because there will be a drop-off in his line play. The injury factor also has to be considered, based on his one-year layoff.
Oakland Raiders
Over/under 1,374 scrimmage yards for Josh Jacobs
Paul Gutierrez's prediction: Under. So much depends upon how big of a load Jacobs can handle to prove he is a feature back as a rookie. We're talking about a guy who had 251 carries total in college. And while he has shown soft hands catching the ball out of the backfield in camp, fellow tailback Jalen Richard, who tied for the team lead with 68 catches last season, might be more trustworthy early on, so that would eat into Jacobs' all-purpose output.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under 185 touches for Miles Sanders
Tim McManus' prediction: Under. I could see it being right around that number. His talents are obvious and coach Doug Pederson will likely feed him more as the season goes on, but he'll be sharing snaps with Jordan Howard, Corey Clement and Darren Sproles and needs to stay healthy after dealing with a hamstring injury for a good portion of the offseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under 287 touches for James Conner
Jeremy Fowler's prediction: Over. No. 2 back Jaylen Samuels' pass-catching ability could cut into Conner's reception total slightly, and the Steelers have a tendency to go away from the run. But Conner was averaging 21 touches per game last season before a December ankle injury, and the Pro Bowler has a personal goal to play a full 16-game slate. When the offense needs the tough yards, the Steelers turn to Conner.
San Francisco 49ers
Over/under 157 touches for Tevin Coleman
Nick Wagoner's prediction: Over. Coleman averaged 177 touches the past three seasons in Atlanta while in a timeshare with Devonta Freeman. He's joining a crowded backfield with Matt Breida and Jerick McKinnon, both of whom will get their share of opportunities, but Coleman is the most proven back on this roster. He also has the longest history of staying healthy, which should position him to lead the group in touches and, potentially, even surpass his career high of 199, which he set in 2018.
Seattle Seahawks
Over/under 162 touches for Rashaad Penny
Brady Henderson's prediction: Over. Penny finished his underwhelming rookie season with 94 offensive touches while serving in the No. 3 role behind Chris Carson and Mike Davis. He'll be the clear-cut No. 2 option this season with Davis gone, and he'll move into the featured role if Carson ever has to miss a game, which seems likely given his injury history. Even when Carson is a go, the Seahawks might want to keep him fresh by working Penny in a bit more than they worked in their backups last season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under 162 touches for Ronald Jones
Jenna Laine's prediction: Under. Jones had only 30 touches total and one touchdown last season. While the Bucs believe Jones looks like a completely different player than he was last season, he's still currently penciled in as the No. 2 running back behind Peyton Barber. He could very well overtake Barber for the starting role -- Arians said this really is a competition -- but I'd proceed with caution on Jones (he's still dropping screen passes on occasion) or any Bucs running back, for that matter.
Tennessee Titans
Over/under 12 rushing touchdowns for Derrick Henry
Turron Davenport's prediction: Under. Teams are going to sell out to stop Henry. The Titans also have the personnel to spread the field horizontally even if they use three-tight end groupings. They will look to be a much improved passing offense in the red zone.
Washington Redskins
Over/under 245 touches for Derrius Guice
John Keim's prediction: Under. If Guice stays healthy, he should top this number. But coming off a torn ACL isn't easy, even though he has been a full participant in training camp. The Redskins don't need to force-feed Guice because they also have Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson, who remains in a third-down role. Guice will help in both the run and pass game and could be the spark this offense needs.
QUARTERBACKS
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ
OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals
Over/under 110 rushing attempts for Kyler Murray
Josh Weinfuss' prediction: Over. Based on how Kliff Kingsbury's offense is designed, Murray will get his fair share of designed runs; but he'll also be running the ball quite a bit when plays break down. And a lot of those runs will likely be right up the middle, where a gaping hole will form as the receivers spread out the linebackers and defensive backs in the Air Raid. With Murray's speed and quickness, he'll be able to avoid pass rushes when the pocket collapses, which could happen more often if the offensive line starts to get banged up like it already is.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/under 4,655 passing yards for Matt Ryan
Vaughn McClure's prediction: Over. Ryan has Dirk Koetter back as his offensive coordinator, and Koetter likes to air the ball out. When Koetter first coached Ryan from 2012 to 2014, he twice surpassed 4,655 passing yards. And Ryan has so many weapons now, led by Julio Jones.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under 152 rushing attempts for Lamar Jackson
Jamison Hensley's prediction: Over. When it was pointed out that Cam Newton's career high in rushes was 139, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said "take the over" with Jackson. The Ravens and Jackson have never showed any fear when it comes to their speedy quarterback carrying the ball. Jackson will run as much as it takes for Baltimore to win. It's safe to say Jackson will average 10 rushing attempts per game, which would set another NFL single-season record for carries by a quarterback, like he did in 2018.
Buffalo Bills
Over/under 100 rushing attempts for Josh Allen
Marcel Louis-Jacques' prediction: Under. General manager Brandon Beane wants Allen to mimic Russell Wilson's "keep defenses honest" running style. Wilson has only carried the ball 100-plus times twice in his career, so it's unlikely Allen will surpass that in his second season -- especially now that defenses are prepared for him to run.
Carolina Panthers
Over/under 29 total touchdowns for Cam Newton
David Newton's prediction: Over. The combination of rushing and passing touchdowns should get the 2015 NFL MVP past this mark if he plays all 16 games. He had a combined 28 last season, his first under offensive coordinator Norv Turner, and that was in 14 games. With tight end Greg Olsen healthy, Christian McCaffrey looking stronger and faster than ever and the improvement of receivers DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, Newton has more weapons around him than at any point in his career. As long as the right shoulder stays strong, Newton should put up big numbers.
Chicago Bears
Over/under 27 total touchdowns for Mitchell Trubisky
Jeff Dickerson's prediction: Over. Trubisky had exactly 27 total touchdowns last year, but that number is expected to increase with another season of experience in Matt Nagy's system.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 3,937 passing yards for Andy Dalton
Ben Baby's prediction: Under. Dalton has thrown for more than 3,700 yards in only two of his eight seasons, with the feat most recently occurring in 2016. The veteran quarterback could potentially be without his top target, A.J. Green, for multiple games at the start of the season. The lack of healthy receiving options and a shaky offensive line could hamper Dalton's ability to post big numbers this season.
Cleveland Browns
Over/under 32 passing touchdowns for Baker Mayfield
Jake Trotter's prediction: Over. He broke the NFL rookie record with 27 last season and didn't even play in the first 2½ games. Oh, and he has Odell Beckham Jr. as a weapon now too.
Stephen A. Smith contends that Antonio Brown embarrassed himself with the way he acted with the helmet issue over the past week.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/under 25 passing touchdowns for Dak Prescott
Todd Archer's prediction: Over. Prescott has maxed out at 23 touchdowns, but he appears ready for his best season yet. While the Cowboys will continue to be a run-first team, Prescott will have more time on task with Amari Cooper, a growing Michael Gallup, the savvy of Randall Cobb and the return of Jason Witten to help make Kellen Moore's first year as coordinator a success.
Denver Broncos
Over/under 12 starts for Joe Flacco
Jeff Legwold's prediction: Over. Flacco has started all 16 regular-season games in nine of his 11 years in the league. He missed six games in 2016 because of injury. And he missed seven games last season after he was replaced by Lamar Jackson, or even with a hip injury he would have hit 12 starts. The odds are with him, and the Broncos will do enough in the run game and play-action to slow down the rush at times. Denver's depth on the offensive line is a question mark, but it should play with more attention to detail up front with Mike Munchak coaching the O-line. If Flacco is disciplined about getting the ball out on time, the Broncos should be able to limit at least some of the potential punishment he takes in the pocket.
Detroit Lions
Over/under 3,919 passing yards for Matthew Stafford
Michael Rothstein's prediction: Over. New coordinator and new philosophy, sure, but Matthew Stafford has thrown for 4,000 or more yards in all but one of the seasons in the league when he has played in all 16 games. The Lions still need him to win, and he has enough receiving options, with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay on the outside, Danny Amendola in the slot, Jesse James and T.J. Hockenson at tight end and even Kerryon Johnson as a receiving back. Stafford should beat that number by a couple of hundred yards or so.
Green Bay Packers
Over/under 33 total touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers
Rob Demovsky's prediction: Under. There's going to be an adjustment period for Rodgers in Matt LaFleur's offense, which, by the way, is going to be more run-heavy than any offense Rodgers has played in before with Green Bay. Rodgers has topped 33 TDs in a season only once in the past four years.
Houston Texans
Over/under 30 total touchdowns for Deshaun Watson
Sarah Barshop's prediction: Over. It remains to be seen how much better the Texans' offensive line will be than it was a year ago, but even some improvement should help Watson eclipse 30 total touchdowns. If Will Fuller V and Keke Coutee can stay healthy, Watson will have three receivers he can count on, as well as tight end Jordan Thomas, who could be a red zone threat.
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under 34 passing touchdowns for Andrew Luck
Mike Wells' prediction: Under. The Colts want to have more of a balanced attack on offense, as running back Marlon Mack has the potential to be a 1,000-yard rusher this season -- as long as he remains healthy. And while Luck has the best group of skill position players surrounding him since he entered the NFL in 2012, he has thrown for at least 34 touchdowns just twice in his pro career.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 3,832 passing yards for Nick Foles
Mike DiRocco's prediction: Under. Offensive coordinator John DeFilippo got in trouble in Minnesota for not running the ball enough, but that won't happen here. Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone still believe in running the football, and DeFilippo, while he likes to push the ball downfield, understands that. The biggest factor in Foles' passing yards will be how many games he and Leonard Fournette play. Foles has never played 16 games and the two times he has entered the season as the unquestioned starter, he missed 13 combined games. Fournette has missed 11 games over the past two seasons.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under 37 total touchdowns for Patrick Mahomes
Adam Teicher's prediction: Over. Mahomes has too many strong receiving threats to think his numbers will take a big tumble from 2018, when he threw 50 TD passes. He won't get to 50 again, but he should get to 37 with room to spare.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/under 4,235 passing yards for Philip Rivers
Eric D. Williams' prediction: Over. Rivers has thrown for at least 4,300 passing yards in each of the past four seasons. Additionally, he has not missed a start since taking over as the starter for the Chargers in 2006, so missing games likely will not be an issue in Rivers putting up big numbers again in 2019.
Los Angeles Rams
Over/under 28 passing touchdowns for Jared Goff
Lindsey Thiry's prediction: Over. Last season, Goff passed for 32 touchdowns. In 2017, he tossed 28. There's no reason to think his numbers will decline in his fourth season. Goff has an increased command of the offense and also has an increased number of targets with the development of lanky receiver Josh Reynolds and tight end Gerald Everett.
Miami Dolphins
Over/under 10 starts for Josh Rosen
Cameron Wolfe's prediction: Over. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the favorite to win the Dolphins' starting job in Week 1, but he likely won't have a long rope if his history of inconsistency strikes again and there are struggles early in the season. Miami has a Week 5 bye, making it an ideal time for a quarterback switch before the Week 6 home game against Washington. That scenario has Rosen starting the final 12 games, which should be enough to evaluate whether he is the Dolphins' long-term answer at quarterback.
Minnesota Vikings
Over/under 3,919 passing yards for Kirk Cousins
Courtney Cronin's prediction: Under. In the final three games of the 2018 season with Kevin Stefanski as his offensive coordinator, Cousins averaged 27.3 attempts, 200 yards and two touchdowns. That mirrors the run-first mentality the Vikings want to carry into this season, which could help Minnesota in the win column but halt Cousins from recording his fifth straight 4,000-yard passing season.
New England Patriots
Over/under 28 passing touchdowns for Tom Brady
Mike Reiss' prediction: Under. The Patriots' strength at the end of last season was running the ball when close to the end zone. While that needs to be re-established in 2019, the odds seem high for them to duplicate that success, and thus the trickle-down effect could see Brady's TD number decline (he had 29 last season). The retirement of Rob Gronkowski is a big piece to replace in the passing game.
New Orleans Saints
Over/under 4,264 passing yards for Drew Brees
Mike Triplett's prediction: Over. This is a great target number, since Brees was on pace for 4,258 passing yards last season before resting in Week 17 and he threw for 4,334 yards in 2017. The Saints are more balanced than when he averaged 5,141 passing yards from 2011 to 2016. But it's hard to imagine Brees dipping much lower if he stays healthy. And his number could be boosted if the Saints see some games in which they need to play from behind.
New York Giants
Over/under 13 starts for Eli Manning
Jordan Raanan's prediction: Under. The Giants will make the switch to rookie Daniel Jones when the playoffs get realistically out of reach and/or the locker room demands it. One of the two will happen at some point from the 10th to 12th games.
New York Jets
Over/under 25 passing touchdowns for Sam Darnold
Rich Cimini's prediction: Under. Darnold will show improvement in Year 2, but 25 TD passes probably would rank him among the top 10 to 13 signal-callers in the league -- and that's too high for him at this stage. With Le'Veon Bell in the backfield, the Jets would be foolish to become a pass-oriented team.
Oakland Raiders
Over/under 24 passing touchdowns for Derek Carr
Paul Gutierrez's prediction: Over. Yes, I realize Carr has surpassed 24 touchdown passes in a single season only twice in his five-year career, and he is coming off a career-low 19 touchdowns in 2018. But Carr has weapons all around him now, from deep-threat Tyrell Williams and all-everything receiver Antonio Brown to stud young running back Josh Jacobs and a revamped offensive line. Most important, Carr has a better grasp of Jon Gruden's offense, and this is only the second time in Carr's career he will play in the same system in consecutive seasons.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under 33 total touchdowns for Carson Wentz
Tim McManus' prediction: Over. He hit that mark in 2017 despite missing three-plus games. The bet here is he stays on the field for the bulk of the season. If he does, he should have no problem going over 33 TDs given all the weapons at his disposal.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under 4,720 passing yards for Ben Roethlisberger
Jeremy Fowler's prediction: Over. Roethlisberger will be in complete control of this offense, and he feels most comfortable in a no-huddle attack that includes plenty of four- and five-wide sets. Offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner trusted Roethlisberger to throw the ball a league-high 675 times in 2018, leading to a career-best 5,129 yards. There's no going back now.
San Francisco 49ers
Over/under 24 passing touchdowns for Jimmy Garoppolo
Nick Wagoner's prediction: Over. This of course presumes Garoppolo can play a full season or close to it, something he has never done in the NFL. But if he does, it's not hard to see him pushing past 24, considering the trio of Garoppolo, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard combined to throw for 26 scores last season. Garoppolo has a better group of weapons surrounding him in 2019, and Kyle Shanahan's offense should create plenty of opportunities to reach the end zone through the air.
Seattle Seahawks
Over/under 29 total touchdowns for Russell Wilson
Brady Henderson's prediction: Over. Without longtime No. 1 receiver Doug Baldwin, Wilson might have a hard time topping his ultra-efficient 2018 season, in which he set a career high with 35 touchdown passes and tied his career low with seven interceptions. But he has enough deep threats (Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, David Moore) and enough mobility to make 30 combined touchdowns a realistic baseline. It seems like an anomaly that he didn't run for a single score last season for the first time in his career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under 27 total touchdowns for Jameis Winston
Jenna Laine's prediction: Over. Winston has thrown 27 touchdowns only once in his NFL career (28 in 2016), but Bruce Arians' red zone packages are a lot more diverse than what we saw under previous head coach Dirk Koetter. And the Bucs will put up more points as a result.
Tennessee Titans
Over/under 20 total touchdowns for Marcus Mariota
Turron Davenport's prediction: Over. Mariota should see an increase in passing touchdowns this season thanks to the return of tight end Delanie Walker and the addition of wide receiver Adam Humphries. Both players present matchup problems, especially in the red zone. They get open quickly, and they're reliable pass-catchers. Mariota also has wideout Corey Davis as an option to make contested catches. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants Mariota to play more freely, so don't be surprised if he flees the pocket and scores touchdowns running the ball.
Washington Redskins
Over/under 11 starts for Dwayne Haskins
John Keim's prediction: Under. In an ideal world, the Redskins would not start Haskins in 2019. They knew it might take a while to learn the offense, realizing the talent is worth grooming. With a coaching staff that needs to win now, they will first turn to veterans Colt McCoy and Case Keenum. Haskins might play if those two aren't getting it done and the team is out of playoff contention, but that wouldn't occur until perhaps the midway point or later.