We're closing in on December, which means the 2018 season is in the home stretch, and the NFL's firing-and-hiring season is here. One head coach already has been let go -- and picked up by another team -- and there are still a few more to come.
Let's take an analytical look at the head coaches sitting on the hottest seats. Just as we have the past two seasons -- here's the preseason Hot Seat Index -- we trained our model using Pro-Football- Reference's data on every NFL head-coaching tenure since 1979. Unsurprisingly, the most important factor in our model is the team's win-loss record from the current season, but there are a number of other factors that the model takes into effect, such as previous playoff success, whether the current general manager hired the coach, and more. Read the full methodology here.
Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project season outcomes, we estimated the chance that each head coach would be fired by this offseason. Here are the coaches who are the most vulnerable, in order of highest chances of being fired and going in descending order.
Where's Hue Jackson?
OK, yes, the Cleveland Browns already fired him. But the model would have placed him No. 1 on this list with a 73 percent chance of being fired. I'm including his result here to give everyone confidence in the model -- and, besides, you'd be curious anyway. The Browns underperformed in the first half of the season, going 2-5-1 before Jackson was ousted. Although the team's talent level has turned the corner -- Cleveland has an improving offensive line, strong defense and competent quarterback room -- Jackson was never able to put it all together. He finished his tenure 3-36-1.
Now, on to the rest of the list ...
1. Todd Bowles, New York Jets
Chances of being fired: 69 percent
Before the season began, we ran a "what if?" scenario with our model to see which coaches could least afford to have a 4-12 record in 2018. Bowles was the second-most vulnerable on the list at 71 percent, and it's possible that the Jets finish the season with that exact record. That would make three straight losing seasons for Bowles, who has lost 17 of the last 22 games, and things are trending in the wrong direction.
2. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
Chances of being fired: 60 percent
Cincinnati has stuck with Lewis through thick and thin over the past 16 years. The past three seasons are back onto the thin side of things, though, as it is likely headed for a third straight year without the playoffs. The Bengals are 5-6, and FPI does not see them finishing strongly. The Bengals' ownership and front office are unlike other franchises, so take our estimate with a grain of salt. But we can say this: If the Bengals don't go on a run to finish the season and Lewis is retained, his tenure would stand out as even more atypical.
3. Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals
Chances of being fired: 58 percent
Wait, new coaches are always given more than a single year, right? No, not always. The problem for Wilks is that his projected record of 3-13 would represent a significant downturn from last season's 8-8 record. He already has jettisoned his offensive coordinator. Wilks' hopes of sticking around for a second season in Arizona depend on generating positive trends in December.
4. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Chances of being fired: 56 percent
The model doesn't take into account the season-ending injury to a star quarterback in Week 3, so it is relatively unforgiving of the 49ers' 8-19 record over the past two years. The model also is unaware of the relatively favorable contract Shanahan has, but it does take into account that the second-year coach is tied closely with general manager John Lynch, who doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Shanahan is more than likely safe, despite the cold, hard numbers.
5. Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chances of being fired: 51 percent
Question: Which coach has the third-highest winning percentage in Bucs history? Answer: It's Koetter ... at .419. Seriously, he trails only Tony Dungy (.563) and Jon Gruden (.509) for a team that has been around since 1976. Since going 9-7 in Koetter's first year as coach, the Bucs are just 9-18. And Koetter has had quarterback issues in 2018.
6. Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders
Chances of being fired: 50 percent
The Raiders have regressed from their 6-10 record in 2017 to become the latest team teetering on the cliff. One-and-done coaches are unusual, but there have been 13 instances in our model's training data going back to 1980, and the Raiders own three of those. Regrettably, our model is not aware of Gruden's coach-for-life $100 million contract. Realistically, the chance of Gruden being let go after one year is minimal, but it's worth knowing that without that contract, it might be a coin flip whether he would be back to coach the Raiders in 2019.
7. Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins
Chances of being fired: 41 percent
Over Gase's three seasons in charge, the Dolphins have never had a positive point differential. Even his first season was something of a mirage, as Miami went 10-6 and made the playoffs but gave up more points than it scored and was quickly dismissed in the wild-card round. The Dolphins have gone 11-16 since then and have only a 1.8 percent chance of making the playoffs this season, per FPI.
8. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
Chances of being fired: 37 percent
Expectations for the Jaguars were sky-high after a rebuilding effort finally resulted in a 10-6 regular-season record and a trip to the AFC Championship Game last season. Instead, Jacksonville (3-8) has taken a major step back. The defense is not the elite unit it was in 2017, and ongoing frustrations with the offense have resulted in the firing of the offensive coordinator and benching of quarterback Blake Bortles. With a projected win total of between five and six, all indications are that Marrone and his coaching staff are likely not destined for a long tenure.
9. Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins
Chances of being fired: 37 percent
This is Gruden's fifth season, and he has won more than eight games only once (2015). That also was his only trip to the playoffs. The Redskins looked like they could luck out this season by winning an average NFC East, but a season-ending injury to Alex Smith has dimmed those hopes. Still, they have six wins and might be able to take advantage of a weaker-than-expected division to earn a playoff berth. Gruden, who is 34-40-1 overall, was handpicked by Washington's front office, which boosts his chances of sticking around for 2019.
Other coaches on the fringe of the hot seat
Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
Chances of being fired: 27 percent
Now in his eighth full season, Garrett has taken the Cowboys to just two postseasons and has only one win. It has been two years since a 13-3 season raised expectations for the Cowboys, and this season could be make or break. Fortunately for Dallas, fate has blessed it with a wide-open division, as the defending champion Eagles are struggling and the former first-place Redskins appear to be fading. Garrett is 73-58 overall.
Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers
Chances of being fired: 22 percent
Frustrations in Green Bay are simmering as Aaron Rodgers is in his prime, while the Packers are likely to miss the playoffs for the second straight season. McCarthy's overall record is 125-76-2, and his teams made the playoffs eight years in a row from 2009 to '16, but things are trending in the wrong direction.
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
Chances of being fired: 18 percent
The Harbaugh era in Baltimore could come to an end, as the Ravens haven't made the playoffs since 2014. Harbaugh set the bar high in his start in Baltimore, going to the playoffs in six of his first seven seasons, including winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season. FPI gives the Ravens a 43 percent chance of making the 2018 postseason, which could save Harbaugh's job.
Full methodology
While the team's record is obviously of critical importance to whether a coach is fired, here are the other factors taken into account by our model:
The degree of decline or improvement from the previous season -- this is almost as important in our model as this year's record. The fact that GMs and owners are much more likely to pull the trigger after a team fails to meet expectations is hardly surprising, but it's important to note that a coach who goes from 3-13 to 5-11 is less likely to be fired than a coach who slips from 9-7 to 5-11.
The next most important factor is the coach's long-term record with the team, represented by his rolling average winning percentage for the past two through five seasons.
Playoff success matters. The model looks at how long it has been since a coach made the playoffs and the number of seasons since a playoff victory. The recency of a playoff appearance appears slightly more important than that of a playoff win.
Did the current GM hire you? The thinking here is that a general manager (or whoever the hiring and firing authority is) is more likely to cut ties with his predecessor's coaching hire. Coaches generally have a 25 percent chance of being fired when working with a GM who didn't hire him, as opposed to 18 percent when the current GM is the one who did.
Tenure has an impact on the model, but not in a straightforward way. Whether you've been the coach for a long time or you just got there, the data still relies on a combination of other factors to determine if your seat should be hotter.
I also included Super Bowl appearances/victories as factors, but they turned out to be the least important. Coaches with a Super Bowl appearance or victory on their résumés aren't given much extra slack.