The Alex Smith trade was good for Kirk Cousins and discouraging for the Cleveland Browns. That was one initial takeaway from conversations with NFL executives about what comes next for Cousins, the Washington Redskins quarterback expected to hit free agency next month.
Cousins, who turns 30 in August, will become the rare starting quarterback to reach free agency in his prime after Washington arranged to acquire Smith from Kansas City in a deal that can become official when the trading period opens March 14. Once Cousins hits the market, he will be in position to choose from a range of suitors based on criteria that matters most to him, under the assumption that any team serious about signing him will pay him well.
It's unclear just how much Cousins might command, but one salary-cap analyst thought the deal could average more than $27 million per year, with a $50 million signing bonus and $90 million in the first three years. Cousins would then supplant Matthew Stafford as the highest-paid player in NFL history -- and subsequently lose that title when the next QB mega-deal is signed.
Here's a look at how NFL execs see the dynamics at this early stage.
Three teams execs mentioned first, with some caveats
Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals
The Broncos and Vikings could see themselves as a quarterback away from contending. Both teams could be attractive to a free-agent quarterback because they possess strong defenses. The Vikings also have coaching stability. The Cardinals can offer an elite running back and strong defense if they can make the salary-cap particulars work.
"You have two teams that think they are a quarterback away from really competing in Minnesota and Denver, and so I think [agent] Mike [McCartney] is just going to set his price, and they are either going to match it or they won't," one exec said.
Two other execs questioned whether the Vikings, with a defense-minded head coach, would see the value in spending $25 million or more per season on a quarterback who might not provide a dramatic upgrade in a new environment.
"I think Cousins would fit well in Minnesota, but I think they like their own guys, whether that is [Teddy] Bridgewater or [Case] Keenum," an exec said. "If they like one of those guys, they will give him a chance and figure they can pick up the pieces if they fail because they have done it before. They can find somebody. They don't need a $25 million-a-year quarterback to make their engine go."
The Vikings do have a history of pursuing veteran quarterbacks as upgrades (Brett Favre) and out of desperation (Sam Bradford). But multiple execs thought Minnesota would prefer sticking with its own, especially Bridgewater.
"A defensive coach like [Mike] Zimmer probably feels like, 'Hey, play good defense, and we can make the other parts work,'" another exec said. "He might rather spend it on pass-rushers."
Von Miller shares that he has had conversations with Kirk Cousins about coming to Denver and flat out says "we need Kirk."
What about the Broncos? One exec paused for a few seconds and sighed before answering.
"Great defense," this exec said. "You kind of like their chances in the division again. They have had recent success. What worries me about them is they kind of chew up quarterbacks. They just fired the offensive coordinator [Mike McCoy]. If you are Cousins, maybe you wonder whether that continues with you."
The exec who thought Cousins' agent would set his price and wait for Minnesota or Denver to match it saw Arizona as a team that would try to get into the conversation, but he wasn't sure the Cardinals would be able to compete.
"I could see Cousins willing to go there," a different exec said of Arizona. "I was just thinking from a money/cap standpoint, it might be harder than some other places."
Another exec said he thought the Cardinals should be appealing to Cousins as long as there are no concerns about their new and relatively unknown head coach, Steve Wilks.
"Arizona might be my top pick," this exec said. "They are competitive. I think Seattle is headed the other way. The Rams could take a step back. Arizona has a good defense, a pretty good recent history, some talent and a good running back. Plus, it's a good place to live, and they did this already with Carson Palmer, and it worked, so they have a history of relocating guys positively."
One team that might belong in the top group
One exec said he thought the Jets were a more realistic destination than the Vikings, based on their salary-cap situation and Zimmer's known affinity for Bridgewater. He thought the Jets could comfortably make an offer with excellent cash flow. The Jets' 2017 quarterback, Josh McCown, has said he would like to return. McCown and Cousins share the same agent, which might or might not affect the situation in a meaningful way.
"The Jets are a wild card," an exec said. "They go from spending to not spending to spending to not spending."
The Jets need a long-term quarterback and, like Cleveland, are flush with salary-cap resources. Two other execs said they saw the Jets as another version of Cleveland: a team that is not suddenly going to contend with Cousins on the roster.
The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Jeremy Bates, worked previously under Mike Shanahan, Cousins' initial NFL head coach. But head coach Todd Bowles is entering his fourth season after two consecutive losing ones. Is this a great situation for a veteran quarterback if Cousins is seeking stability and a chance to win?
"Maybe Cousins could change it, but he also might sink with it," an exec said.
One team execs were less sure about
Yes, the Bills could use a quarterback, but what are their intentions? One exec said he didn't have a feel for the Bills and wasn't sure whether Cousins would consider them seriously.
"Buffalo is an interesting one," another exec said. "You have to consider that. They are on the upswing. There is positive there. Something worries me a little. They got rid of the other guy [Tyrod Taylor] so cold-heartedly when they benched him. That kind of worries me."
A third exec placed Buffalo in the Minnesota category, in that both teams have defense-minded head coaches who might prefer funneling resources elsewhere to going all-in with Cousins.
One team execs thought Cousins might avoid
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland seems to rank high on most Cousins-related lists because the Browns have obvious quarterback needs and tons of salary-cap space. Neither of those factors necessarily makes Cleveland more attractive for a free agent with the ability to consider a wide range of options if we assume, as stated from the outset, that every team interested in him will pay him well.
If Cousins wanted out of Washington to escape dysfunctional leadership, how eager should he be to sign with a Browns team that arguably has leadership that has been even more dysfunctional? Would going from Redskins owner Daniel Snyder to Browns owner Jimmy Haslam make sense for a player getting his one and only shot at setting his own career course?
"He is not going to Cleveland," an exec said. "Alex Smith just said that in a very nice way. How could you go to a 1-31 team, no matter how good you are? You can't, can you? Unless you have nothing else, but this guy will have other things."
Smith's willingness to enter into a contract extension with the Redskins does not necessarily mean he ruled out entering into a new deal with the Browns, who also were known to be interested. However, the fact that Smith did essentially approve the pending trade with Washington by agreeing to extend his deal was seen as a potentially bad sign for Cleveland.
"I think Cleveland is a real possibility, money-wise," another exec said, "but I don't know if he wants to go there. I think they will be better under [new general manager John] Dorsey, but does Cousins want to wait? They do have some pieces on the defensive side. Can Cousins get past the craziness of the past five years? If he puts that on the owner, you cannot get around it."
Cousins has earned nearly $44 million the past two years. He's in position to seek out the best possible situation, not just the most lucrative one. Beyond ownership, the Browns will have no shortage of strong, established and opinionated personalities under one roof with Hue Jackson, Todd Haley, Gregg Williams and Dorsey working together. Those are the types of dynamics Cousins would likely take into consideration.
"Cleveland could be a price driver in this," an exec said.
Another exec speculated that the Browns might prefer starting fresh with a rookie such as Sam Darnold, as opposed to paying huge money for Cousins. This could be a case of mutual disinterest under that type of scenario.
Three teams execs thought might stick with current starters
Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Miami Dolphins
It's looking as though these teams will stick with their projected 2017 starters in some capacity. Jacksonville moving on from Blake Bortles seemed more likely than the Giants dumping Eli Manning or the Dolphins casting aside Ryan Tannehill, the execs thought.
"You never know," an exec said, "but it sure does seem like they'll stick with Bortles."
One exec who had the Broncos, Vikings and Jets as his top three destinations said he thought the Dolphins were potentially lurking as a surprise team.