The Jacksonville Jaguars are big underdogs on the road against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. And the Philadelphia Eagles are home dogs for the second straight week in the NFC playoffs, this time to the Minnesota Vikings.
Both the Jags and Eagles can win -- I believe that. This is the NFL playoffs. But it's going to take more than hundreds of dog masks in the stands to gain an advantage.
So how can these underdogs pull off upsets and punch a ticket to Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis? Let's look at these matchups through the lens of coach and break down three keys for both teams, starting with the first game. And starting with the probable league MVP:
How the Jaguars can upset the Patriots
Sunday: 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: NE by 7.5
1. Mix coverage looks against Tom Brady
Why it's important: The Jags have a core Cover 3 defense (three-deep, four-under zone) with top-level cornerbacks who can do anything that is asked of them. Sitting in that three-deep shell, however, allows the Patriots quarterback to work the inside seams and find soft holes in the coverage. Brady will eat it up. Because of that, the Jags must vary their coverage looks, use safety rotation and disguise both zone and man schemes.
How they can do it: No, the Jags aren't simply going to erase Cover 3 from their game plan. And I already discussed some adjustments and matchups to try to limit the production of tight end Rob Gronkowski. But the Jags can play more Quarters coverage (four-deep, three-under) to protect the seam, with the safeties also in a position to drive downhill on inside breaking routes. Man-to-man coverage? Dial that up too, with a linebacker -- Telvin Smith or Myles Jack -- lurking inside. Jacksonville also could drop down safety Barry Church as a rover to light up those crossing routes. And with man coverage, the Jags can seriously challenge the Patriots' wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. No free releases. The point here is that the Jags can move to these coverages from a pre-snap three-deep shell. And it still allows the Jags to cater to their defensive team speed, while removing those pockets that Brady wants to attack in Cover 3.
2. Early down play-action with Blake Bortles
Why it's important: First or second down play-action gives the Jaguars quarterback defined reads with open windows to deliver the ball. During the playoffs, Bortles has thrown for 176 yards and two touchdowns off 24 play-action attempts, as compared to 125 yards and no touchdowns on 25 non play-action throws. The Jags' play-action route tree will create open throwing lanes and give Bortles an opportunity to pick up chunk gains in the passing game.
How they can do it: The play-action passing game out of two-back personnel isn't new or complex. We know that. But when Jacksonville runs the ball downhill all day with Leonard Fournette, those linebackers are going to attack the line of scrimmage. Show the off-tackle lead or iso scheme and pull the ball. Bortles can then look up the deep dig to Marqise Lee. He can set his feet and make the throw to the now-vacated area of the field for a quick 20 yards. Or he can take a shot, like Bortles did in the divisional round to Keelan Cole on the deep Yankee route. And if we need a reminder of why the play-action game works in the Jags' run-heavy attack, go back to Bortles' red zone touchdown pass to fullback Tommy Bohanon in the win over Pittsburgh. That was like two trains passing in the night when Bohanon ran past the linebacker on the quick seam route for six. Remove defenders from the passing lanes -- that's the goal. And doing it on early downs can catch the Patriots off guard.
3. Use inside pressure stunts
Why it's important: Yes, that Jags' front four, led by offseason signing Calais Campbell, is nasty. That unit has to get home to beat Brady. Since halftime of Super Bowl LI, Brady has lit up teams in the playoffs that rush four or fewer passers. He has completed 71 percent of his passes for 508 yards and five touchdowns and zero interceptions in those situations. That's why I would sprinkle in some five- and six-man pressure stunts to attack the inside gaps.
How they can do it: Lining up with linebackers in the A-gap isn't going to cut it against Brady. He will check at the line and dice up the Jaguars. So let's not show it and use stunts, instead. This would allow the Jags to run some inside cross-dog blitzes with linebackers rushing from off the ball and crossing to different gaps. Or they can loop Jack inside. There are a lot of possibilities here, but the idea is to pepper those inside gaps to generate pressure. Make Brady uncomfortable, don't allow him to step up in the pocket and put multiple rushers at his feet. Remember, we aren't talking about a game plan loaded with blitz stunts. But this is a way to be aggressive and dictate the game.
How the Eagles can upset the Vikings
Sunday: 6:40 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: MIN by 3
1. Continue to use run-pass options with Nick Foles
Why it's important: In the divisional-round win over the Falcons, Foles completed all 11 of his passes on throws inside the numbers for 119 yards. And a majority of those throws came off run-pass options in which he attacked clean windows.
How they can do it: RPOs at the NFL level don't require the quarterback to run all over the field. Instead, these pair the run game with a quick passing concept. In Philadelphia, this puts Foles in a position to hand the ball off on an outside zone or sweep look while reading Vikings linebackers Eric Kendricks or Anthony Barr. If Kendricks or Barr attack downhill to the run -- vacating the inside hole -- Foles can quickly throw the inside slant (or pop pass) to receivers Nelson Agholor or Alshon Jeffery. And if Kendricks or Barr sit, then hand the ball off to Jay Ajayi. If executed properly, the offense is always right. Always. And doing this against the fast and aggressive defense of Minnesota will create superhigh-percentage throws for Foles to work the middle of the field.
2. Create pass-rush matchups versus against Rashod Hill
Why it's important: With the Vikings bumping Mike Remmers inside to guard after the injury to Nick Easton, Hill is the new starter at right tackle. And the young tackle had some struggles against Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan last week. Getting pressure on the edge obviously disrupts the Vikings' passing attack, but it also takes away the ability for quarterback Case Keenum to escape and make off-scheduled plays.
How they can do it: Throw fresh legs at Hill all game. Let's start there with the Eagles' defensive end rotations. Philadelphia can mix in Chris Long and rookie Derek Barnett with starters Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry. And by doing that, they are forcing Hill to match up with a variety of different techniques off the edge. Plus, the Eagles also can add some twist stunts to get interior rushers Fletcher Cox and Tim Jernigan looping outside. Again, it's another matchup to test Hill. Can he identify the twist and win when Cox scrapes off the inside stunt from the end? The idea here is to use that deep and athletic Eagles defensive line to target Hill.
3. Versatility in the run game
Why it's important: The Vikings defense held the Saints to 80 rushing yards on 24 carries in the divisional round. This unit ranked No. 2 overall in the NFL versus the run during the regular season, surrendering an average of only 83.6 yards per game. But that's exactly why the Eagles need to attack the Minnesota front-seven with a deep variety of run concepts to counter the speed of the Vikings' personnel.
How they can do it: Start with the same RPOs we discussed above. That allows the Eagles to run both zone and power to the edge, forcing the linebacker to play run and pass. That's the outside zone/buck sweep combo. But the Eagles also have to account for the interior dominance of Vikings defensive tackle Linval Joseph. How you do that? Traps and wham plays. Instead of trying to consistently win a one-on-one there, the Eagles can invite Joseph up the field and then trap him. And those are quick-hitting, downhill runs for both Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount. Add the trap/wham to inside zone, classic power and the creative plays that coach Doug Pederson is saving for this matchup. It's no different than the old-school Wing T counter scheme the Eagles used to generate an explosive run with Agholor in the win over the Falcons. Remember, banking on moving the Vikings defensive line off the ball all day on off-tackle stuff isn't going to cut it. But when Philadelphia diversifies its run package -- and attacks in multiple ways -- the Eales can establish tempo with both Ajayi and Blount.