Two months after 50 NFL coaches and evaluators stacked quarterbacks into tiers for 2017, we take a look at who is rising or falling through the first five weeks of the season and why.
I've excluded quarterbacks whose struggles stem disproportionately from what is happening around them and those who have been up-and-down to this point without settling on a clear trajectory.
Here are five QBs trending up and four trending down, along with insights from execs on whether those trends will continue.
Five up
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
A general manager who voted in the 2017 QB Tiers survey thought Wentz had a shot at joining the top tier this season.
"What I saw last year," this GM said before the season, "he is exactly what you are looking for: toughness, movement, arm, quickness, decisiveness, accuracy. I think he is, of all the young quarterbacks in the league, the pick of the litter."
Wentz has met those expectations while tossing 10 touchdown passes with three interceptions during the Eagles' 4-1 start. His numbers looked good through five games last season, as well. Wentz has added more as a rusher this season, carrying 26 times for 108 yards and nine first downs. Will he fade the way he did last season?
"He is not afraid, he knows exactly who he is, he is on an up-and-coming team, he always says the right thing," a coordinator said Sunday night. "He is just everything you want to put out there for your franchise. He has big enough shoulders to carry anybody else. He never looks like he asks what's in it for him."
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Sunday was a rough one for Goff and the Rams' offense, but only in a relative way. His worst game of the season -- 22-of-47 passing with two picks during a 16-10 loss to Seattle -- felt better in the end than his best game as a rookie. That was because Goff, having taken the Seahawks' best punch, put the ball on receiver Cooper Kupp's hands in the end zone with the game on the line.
Head coach Sean McVay, offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson inherited a quarterback in Goff who appeared lost while going 0-7 as a starter last season. They have put Goff under center about 50 percent more frequently on early downs, forcing defenses to more fully account for the run game. With a veteran offensive line and improved weaponry, Goff entered the Seattle game averaging a league-leading 13.1 yards per attempt from under center, up from 4.2 last season (he was 4-of-10 passing for 79 yards on those throws against the Seahawks).
Obviously, Goff and the Rams are not going to average 30 points per game all season. Goff will surely hit rough patches, but even if he falls off, the Rams know they have a viable young quarterback. It was much tougher to be sure of that last season.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
The injuries Houston suffered to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus could derail Watson over time by shifting too much of the burden onto his shoulders as a rookie still finding his way. But he already has two five-touchdown games. It's really laughable in retrospect that Tom Savage was in the picture as the opening-week starter, although giving a rookie additional time isn't a bad idea in theory.
"We knew he was going to be a solid performer," an offensive coach said. "We didn't know he was going to run for a 50-yard touchdown to turn a Thursday night game, or that he would come back the next week against Tennessee and help them put up 57 points. But when you pair a solid performer who does not turn over the ball with a great defense, good things are going to happen."
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
Cousins' supporting cast took a hit when DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon left in free agency. The vital signs for Cousins -- seven TDs, one pick, 107.6 passer rating, 61.5 Total QBR, 8.3 yards per attempt, great pass to Josh Doctson in the end zone at Kansas City -- are encouraging.
"They jettisoned the good players and the expectations didn't change," an evaluator said. "I'm up on him. Everything is going crazy around him and he keeps playing, which he didn't do two years ago."
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith has played well enough consistently to silence the offseason and preseason talk about 2017 first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II taking over sooner rather than later. Smith, perpetually cast as a dinker-and-dunker, went into Week 5 with four touchdowns and no interceptions on passes traveling 15-plus yards past the line of scrimmage. He had three scores with two picks on those passes all last season.
Now, with 11 touchdowns and no picks overall, Smith is leading a team that is 5-0 this season and 27-4 in its past 31.
"There is just another level of confidence with him when he plays," a veteran coach said. "I have not seen him have a bad look on his face yet, and last year, you could find it sometimes. I don't think you can find it now. I think he is over that. I don't know if he is ever going to chuck it down the field and feel great about that, but that is not their offense, so do not sweat it. They still kill everybody."
Four down
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger missed throw after throw in the loss at Chicago and seemed to lack awareness at times, including when he took a sack and fumbled after failing to locate his hot receiver. Then came his five-interception game in the 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville on Sunday.
Five coaches and evaluators I polled Sunday night thought the Steelers were simply out of sync and would ultimately find their way. But with Roethlisberger having talked retirement before the season, there is at least some concern his mind wasn't entirely where it should have been, negatively affecting his preparation.
Jay Cutler, Miami Dolphins
Cutler's knowledge of the Dolphins' offensive system ideally would have let him start quickly, but there was an untold portion to his story: Cutler had gone 259 days without throwing a pass in a competitive setting from the time he took his final snap with Chicago to the day in August when Miami signed him to replace the injured Ryan Tannehill.
Four games -- two bad, two OK -- isn't enough to say Cutler is finished as a competitive player. He might improve as he figures out timing with his receivers, how they like the ball delivered, etc. It's also possible the Dolphins won't be good enough around Cutler to support him and that his inconsistency will drag them down further as a result.
It's also possible the Dolphins have suffered one too many disruptions to overcome. They've lost their starting QB, signed a player in Cutler who carries his own baggage, had their opener rescheduled due to a natural disaster, lost their bye week, dealt with the anthem protests and now are investigating a video showing offensive line coach Chris Foerster snorting a white substance.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
This one is simple: It's all about injuries for Mariota.
He has missed games in each of his first three seasons with the Titans and is injured now with a hamstring injury that leaves his status uncertain heading into Week 6.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Carr, previously durable, has suffered two injuries in his past five starts, missing multiple weeks in both cases. He completed 29 of 49 passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions over his final two games before suffering a fracture in his back.
There's no reason to expect Carr's overall career trajectory to change, but this was not how anyone with Oakland hoped his fifth NFL season would begin.