Opening week in the NFL is a great time to tap the brakes and remember that first impressions frequently do not endure. Here's a look at which Week 1 surprises I'm buying and which ones I'm resisting for the time being:
What I'm buying
The Colts are this bad: They are when Scott Tolzien is the quarterback instead of Andrew Luck. Indy's 46-9 road defeat to the Los Angeles Rams showed just how much the Colts depend on Luck to carry their rebuilding roster. The drop from Luck to a legitimate backup could be significant enough. The drop from Luck to the replacement-level Scott Tolzien? It's almost incalculable in the absence of an average supporting cast.
David Johnson's injury dooms Arizona: I thought the Cardinals were a borderline playoff team with Johnson at full strength. The schedule was their friend. Age, injuries and Calais Campbell's offseason departure would work against them. If Johnson's wrist injury is serious, Carson Palmer no longer appears consistent enough to pick up the slack behind a shaky line. Losing left tackle D.J. Humphries to injury Sunday isn't going to help.
The Ravens' D is fantastic: The 20-0 beatdown Baltimore put on Cincy justified the Ravens' offseason chatter. Desperate for help on offense, the Ravens instead loaded up on defense in the draft, using their first four selections to address that side of the ball. They weren't messing around.
The Bears are no lock for the NFC North cellar: Vegas set the Bears' projected season win total at 2.5 games lower than any other team in the division, but I don't think it's a given Chicago will finish last. Detroit and Minnesota are flawed enough for the Bears to threaten. Chicago's shortage of notable pass catchers showed up during the final moments of a 23-17 home defeat to Atlanta. But the performance also showed how the Bears' ground game and defensive front seven can keep them in games.
Seattle's D has 2013 potential: The front-line talent is as good or better than the Super Bowl-winning version, with players such as Frank Clark and Sheldon Richardson joining a core featuring eight key holdovers. They held the Packers scoreless in the first half Sunday and gave up only 17 points overall, including seven after the offense turned the ball over at its own 5-yard line. Age is one complicating factor. Key contributors average about 28 years old this season, compared to 26-27 years old back in 2013. Depth at corner is another question mark.
Kyle Shanahan is no magician: Shanahan deserved the rave reviews he got for orchestrating a talented Atlanta Falcons offense last season. Sunday's 23-3 defeat to Carolina in his first game as the San Francisco 49ers' head coach was a reminder that Shanahan did not bring the Falcons' players with him.
What I'm selling (for now)
Le'Veon Bell is a fantasy bust: Bell will be a fantasy star if he sticks in the lineup all season. He's too dynamic not to be. After missing 14 games over the past two seasons, the odds are still against Bell staying in the lineup every week. But there's no reason to Bell's career-low fantasy output against Cleveland -- 7.7 points in PPR leagues -- will become his new normal.
The Rams are much improved: In their five previous season openers, the Rams totaled three first-quarter points and 33 first-half points. They scored 10 first-quarter points and 27 first-half points against the Colts. But the Colts, with two pick-sixes from Tolzien, were no measuring stick. Remember, too, that the Rams started 3-1 last season, including a win over Seattle. Let's not get carried away.
Carson Wentz has arrived: Watching Wentz still feels like an adventure -- mostly in a good way. There was a pick-six, a left-handed pass, an intentional grounding penalty and the usual crash-test-dummy hits on Wentz during the Eagles' 30-17 victory over Washington. Wentz is arriving and should only improve, but it's a process, not something that magically happens. He lit up Cleveland in the opener last season before experiencing the usual rookie ups and downs.
Blake Bortles is a good game manager: Life was much easier for Bortles on Sunday with the Jaguars' defense feasting on Houston's Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson during a 26-7 victory. The reality is that any quarterback is going to win games with such a dominant defense on his side. Starting QBs were 143-5 over the previous 10 seasons when their opponents scored exactly seven points. Managing games that every quarterback wins isn't enough for Bortles to qualify as a good game manager yet.
The Raiders' D isn't so bad: Oakland's 26-16 victory at Tennessee was a big one for the Raiders after they heard all offseason about their defensive shortcomings. It was still a victory over a run-oriented Titans team that finished the game with 42 pass plays and 21 running plays. We need to see more. For Oakland, the best defense will once again be a really good offense.
Green Bay's D is much better: Coach Mike McCarthy understandably lauded his defense for its performance during 17-9 victory over Seattle. Feasting on Seattle's offensive line away from CenturyLink Field doesn't tell us much about what lies ahead -- especially early in the season, when the Seahawks always seem to be finding their way on offense.
The Chiefs are a Super Bowl team: Kansas City remains a very well-coached team that can win the AFC West, but one monster game from Alex Smith doesn't mean the Chiefs are ready to outgun the Tom Bradys and Ben Roethlisbergers over the course of a postseason. Losing Eric Berry for the full season isn't going to help, either.
The Patriots are diminished: The past three times New England started 0-1, the team went on to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots aren't going to give up 78- and 75-yard touchdowns every week. Finding a reliable pass rush is going to be a challenge, but the Patriots will work out their communication issues following their 42-27 home defeat to the Chiefs.