The general consensus on Eddie Lacy seems to be that he's an out-of-shape, injury-prone, ineffective plodder with little chance of success. And yes, the Seattle Seahawks' signing Lacy to a one-year contract worth up to $5.55 million comes with its share of risk, but the reality is that the concerns about Lacy are overstated and the narratives surrounding him mostly inaccurate.
Let's start with the "injury-prone" label.
This is something that latched on to Lacy during the draft process, disappeared for a while, and is now back. Granted, he has been beat up often, but so have most -- if not all -- backs who have near the 788 carries he has accrued in four seasons. What's important to keep in mind here is that Lacy missed a grand total of two regular-season games during his first three NFL seasons. He was limited with ankle and rib injuries, but missed only Week 10 (groin) in 2015. He dealt with eye, hip, head and knee injuries in 2014, but didn't miss a game. And as a rookie, he suffered a hamstring injury in the preseason and tweaked his ankle late in the year, but missed only Week 3 (concussion). Entering his rookie season, teams were reportedly worried about an injury history that included a toe and hamstring ailments.
But again: He missed just two games in his pro career prior to a brutal ankle injury last season that required wires, screws and a plate. Oh, and he racked up 18 touches on that injured ankle against Dallas prior to sitting out the rest of the 2016 season. This guy is tough.
And that leads me to the "overweight" narrative. There's no doubt Lacy has struggled with his weight, but has it negatively affected his play?
Lacy was criticized for being too heavy during the 2015 season when he appeared in 15 games, posted 187 carries for 758 yards (4.1 YPC), and racked up 20 receptions for 188 yards (9.4 YPR). As noted earlier, he also dealt with a few injuries during the season. Nonetheless, the efficiency here was solid.
During last offseason, Lacy worked directly with P90X founder Tony Horton and got his weight under control. Everything was positive. In fact, following a strong Week 2 performance against Minnesota last season, both head coach Mike McCarthy and running backs coach Ben Sirmans said they wanted to get him the ball more often. Lacy went on to play three more games, two of which were highly productive (28 carries, 184 yards), before struggling through the ankle injury in his final showing of the year. Listed at 234, Lacy's weight loss was often cited as the reason for his high-end effectiveness before he got injured.
But interestingly, reports later came out that said Lacy "slowly put [the weight] back on until by the start of the season he looked like he was pretty much back where he'd ended 2015." The same report said "coach Mike McCarthy fined Lacy for not making weight over the last couple of seasons."
Let me get this straight. Lacy has been overweight often throughout his career. It's a consistent issue. He has been fined for it for years. It was a problem during a solid 2015 campaign. And, despite reports that he was in shape during the 2016 offseason, he was still overweight during the regular season.
This would all be a huge problem if Lacy wasn't playing well ... but he was.
I mean, Lacy is good. Really good, in fact.
Last season, he racked up 50-plus rushing yards in each of his five games. He posted at least one carry of 25 yards during four of those games. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, 2.8 yards after contact and, per Pro Football Focus, he forced one missed tackle for every 0.27 carries. Those marks ranked eighth, first and second, respectively, among running backs who carried the ball at least 70 times.
Lacy has averaged at least 4.1 YPC during each of his four NFL campaigns, including at least 4.6 YPC during two of those seasons. As a rookie, he ranked fourth in forced missed tackle rate (0.20) and seventh in YAC (1.9). In 2014, he finished fifth in forced missed tackle rate (0.20) and second in YAC (2.4). In 2015, he ranked 11th in forced missed tackle rate (0.14) and fifth in YAC (2.0). (These rankings are relative to all backs with at least 180 carries. An average of 22.7 backs qualified during the 2013-15 seasons.)
So, assuming the reports about Lacy's weight issues are accurate, it's fairly clear that his weight is not a deterrent to his effectiveness.
On Tuesday, it was reported that Lacy weighed in at 267 earlier this month. That's not ideal, but three things here. First, we just showed that he has played at a high level when "overweight." Second, it seems a bit bizarre to overreact when Lacy is still in the midst of his recovery from the aforementioned October ankle surgery. In fact, his timetable for a full recovery was anywhere from Feb. 26 to April 26. And, finally, on Tuesday, the Seahawks gave Lacy $3 million guaranteed and coach Pete Carroll expressed little concern that he'd be able to hit his target weight "into his 240s."
Again, Lacy's weight and durability concerns should not be completely ignored, but they also should not be overstated or misappropriated. Seattle's new tailback has been one of the best in the league at his job since he was drafted in 2013. He's a good bet to slot in as the team's primary early-down and short-yardage back, with second-year RB C.J. Prosise handling change-of-pace and passing-down duties. Thomas Rawls is also in the mix, but will need to beat out Lacy to carve out a significant offensive role.
The Seahawks still need to address a woeful offensive line, but barring disaster, expectations for Lacy should be high in one of the game's better offenses.
Early 2017 projection: 233 carries, 1,028 yards, seven touchdowns; 19 targets, 15 receptions, 124 yards, 1 touchdown.