NFL teams were told last month to expect the 2017 salary cap to be around $168 million. Some believe it could grow to as much as $170 million. There is about $1.1 billion of cap room available for 2017 among the league's 32 teams, but that soon will change as teams re-sign players to extensions and dole out franchise tags.
General managers realize, however, that they can't build championships through free agency alone. Sure, the New York Giants improved their defense by investing more than $200 million in free agency last offseason and got to the playoffs in 2016, but those success stories are rare.
The Jacksonville Jaguars ($56.7 million of 2017 cap room) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($61.2 million) have plenty of room this offseason, but they have spent big money in free agency over the past few years and will be more careful with their investments. It's strange to see the New England Patriots with $66.9 million in cap room, but the Patriots don't go big into free agency. They usually go for six to eight lower-cost free agents for depth.
As we look toward the offseason, here are five teams I expect to make several moves in free agency, and five more I expect to be frugal (all cap numbers are current as of Monday, Jan. 16):
Big spenders
Cleveland Browns
2017 cap room: $105 million
The Browns elected to minimize free-agency spending last year in order to load up on compensatory picks for the free agents who left the team. Two of those compensatory picks -- a third- and fourth-round pick -- have been used in trades. The Browns have only six unrestricted free agents and the team hopes to retain wide receiver Terrelle Pryor and linebacker Jamie Collins. The rest of the free agents aren't going to get a big enough market to gain compensatory picks, so the Browns can have a clear conscience spending big on the roster. The Browns need everything. After hiring Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator, they have to decide if they want to invest in 4-3 defensive players coming off their season in a 3-4. Obviously, finding a new quarterback is their main mission, but they have to decide if they want to acquire one in free agency, the draft or via trade.
San Francisco 49ers
2017 cap room: $76.9 million
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is expected to void his contract and become a free agent. That will free up another $14.4 million, so the 49ers will have more than $91 million of cap room. First, they have to figure out who will be the general manager in charge of fixing the roster and spending their money. They also have to get a new coach after firing Chip Kelly. It's pretty evident that most of the money will be spent on offense. Kelly was one-and-done because he didn't have enough weapons on offense. Carlos Hyde is a good running back. Torrey Smith, who is making $8 million a season, is their lone receiving threat, and the lack of help at receiver limited him to a 20-catch season. Quarterback also will be at the top of their shopping list.
Tennessee Titans
2017 cap room: $63.8 million
General manager Jon Robinson won't go crazy in free agency, but he can make some important strategic hits just like he did last offseason. And why not? The Titans were a tiebreaker away from winning the AFC South. They have one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Marcus Mariota. Coach Mike Mularkey has established a physical culture that works. The offensive line is solid. Robinson can work on upgrading the wide receiver position and cornerback. With Mariota in the final two years of his rookie contract, this is the time to add key starters -- he will begin commanding big money that would eat up a good portion of the salary cap after that. This is their time to jump to the front of the division.
Chicago Bears
2017 cap room: $52.3 million
This is Year 3 for coach John Fox and general manager Ryan Pace. During the first two years, the Bears have tried to bulk up their front seven on defense. More work has to be done in the secondary, but the Bears have the money to rebuild some of the losses on offense. Quarterback Jay Cutler doesn't figure to be back. If they do a post-June 1 release on Cutler, that would add $9 million to their salary cap. The Bears have the ability to afford a veteran QB such as Tony Romo. They have to figure out if they can sign wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to a long-term deal, and will be on the lookout for receivers and potentially a tight end. Chicago would have the ability to afford one free-agent addition on the offensive line.
Denver Broncos
2017 cap room: $31.5 million
The Broncos are my sleeper team in free agency. General manager John Elway has a new coach in Vance Joseph. He has only $2.261 million of his cap tied up in two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. A lot of the resources will be used to fix the offensive line. Donald Stephenson, signed last offseason, struggled at right tackle. The Broncos might not pick up the four-year, $48 million option on left tackle Russell Okung. Over the past couple of years, Elway has been one of the best in using free agency to fix problems. After losing the Super Bowl to the Seattle Seahawks in 2013, he hit on Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware in free agency. Elway is smart and aggressive, and he doesn't want to fall behind in a tough AFC West.
Penny pinchers
Dallas Cowboys
2017 cap room: approximately $19.1 million over the cap
With Dak Prescott at quarterback, the Cowboys don't plan on having Tony Romo on their 2017 cap at $24.7 million. They could do a post-June 1 release, save $14 million on the 2017 cap and push off $8.9 million to their 2018 cap. If Romo doesn't find a team that appeals to him, he can take a paycut and stay as the backup. The Cowboys have 18 unrestricted free agents, including starters Barry Church, Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, so they have to be smart about spending in the secondary. The team is pretty well set on offense with Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and a great offensive line. Cowboys signings from the outside can't be too expensive.
Kansas City Chiefs
2017 cap room: approximately $630,000 under the cap
The Chiefs will be over the cap once their season is over and they sign their practice-squad players to future contracts. Tackle Mitchell Schwartz was the Chiefs' only expensive signing last offseason, getting a five-year, $33 million deal. If they want to maintain the current roster, the Chiefs won't have a lot of flexibility looking outside for players. Fortunately, general manager John Dorsey does such a good job in the draft that the Chiefs have a solid team and now stand atop the AFC West.
Green Bay Packers
2017 cap room: $35.5 million
The Packers always have ample cap room, but general manager Ted Thompson believes in homegrown talent and not using free agency. There are 34 draft choices on the active roster. It was rare for Thompson to go into free agency in the last offseason to get tight end Jared Cook, who signed a one-year deal at $2.75 million. The money will be invested in his homegrown talent. Guard T.J. Lang, linebacker Nick Perry, safety Micah Hyde, halfback Eddie Lacy and former first-round choice Datone Jones are all free agents.
Cincinnati Bengals
2017 cap room: $43.9 million
The Bengals need a bounce-back year following a disappointing 6-9-1 season. Like the Packers, the Bengals invest in their own players. They have 34 draft choices on their 53-man roster. The Bengals spent $3.7 million on one-year deals this past offseason for linebacker Karlos Dansby and wide receiver Brandon LaFell. Their money will be invested in their own players again. They brought in only 10 new players to their 53-man roster at the start of the season. The offensive line is their priority. With the struggles of their young tackles, they will most likely re-sign left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Guard Kevin Zeitler is a free agent and could command more than $8 million a year. Cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick is a free agent too.
Baltimore Ravens
2017 cap room: $13.7 million
The Ravens made two strong moves during the offseason, signing wide receiver Mike Wallace and safety Eric Weddle. Both signings worked out. This year, things will be tighter. Right tackle Rick Wagner and defensive lineman Brandon Williams are the key players to re-sign. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is too important to the offense to lose. The Ravens do a great job with the cap, but they might not have enough money to spend to hit the market.