Veteran NFL players know to look around the locker room one final time before each season ends because the same group will never be together again. That can be a welcome realization for the worst teams and a wistful one for the best.
The changes in 2017 will be more sweeping for some teams than for others, based on factors including ownership, front offices, coaching changes, projected free agents and more.
The New York Jets could have no equal among teams headed for massive offseason overhauls. What follows is an effort to place each of the NFL's 32 teams on the franchise-overhaul continuum. The teams most affected appear near the top, starting with the Jets, who outrank even the 1-15 Cleveland Browns and 2-14 San Francisco 49ers. But a high ranking doesn't necessarily mean the team will be bad next season. Turnover affects some of the better franchises as well.
1. New York Jets
Coach Todd Bowles has never been one for hyperbole, but when his Jets surprisingly won 10 games in 2015, some might have gotten the impression that this team was close to contending. The 5-11 record that followed this season cleared the way, politically, for a roster overhaul that has been a long time coming.
Center Nick Mangold, cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebacker David Harris have provided excellent production at various points of their Jets tenures, but all are in their 30s and declining. The team could save more than $22 million in 2017 by releasing them.
There is much more work to be done. The Jets' divorce from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is all but final. The team could also move on from both starting tackles (Ryan Clady, Breno Giacomini) and both starting receivers (Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker). Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins could be another logical subtraction.
The Jets are No. 1 on this list, not just for the volume of expected change but also because so many "name" players at key positions could depart.
2. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the only NFL team that hired a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and a new general manager (John Lynch). That is usually recipe for roster volatility. San Francisco is light on established players -- is there a truly special talent on the roster? -- and heavy on salary-cap room. That combination will provide maximum flexibility for an overhaul. The new leadership also should have a mandate to make significant changes. There should be no sacred 49ers as this team changes course. Quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and/or Blaine Gabbert could both depart, particularly with Shanahan saying he thinks it's important for his quarterback to be a pure thrower.
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns' roster remains in the early stages of an overhaul that should continue for years to come. Swapping defensive coordinator Ray Horton for Gregg Williams will lead to additional changes. Quarterback is obviously a big question mark. Even the positions Cleveland has addressed remain unsettled. Wide receiver comes to mind; the team could still use significant help at the position after drafting five receivers in 2016.
4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills emerged from the season with more than 20 players who can become unrestricted free agents, an unusually high number. That does not count quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who is expected to hit the market after Buffalo declines to pick up his three-year contract option. GM Doug Whaley is back, but a coaching change will lead to scheme changes, and that usually means personnel changes are on the way as well.
5. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts had the oldest starting defense in the NFL this past season by a wide margin. A desire to get younger on that side of the ball will lead to changes, especially now that owner Jim Irsay hired Chris Ballard to replace Ryan Grigson as GM. Pass-rusher Robert Mathis, 35, is retiring. Linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, 33, could be a cap casualty. Four other 30-plus defensive players who started during the 2016 season can become free agents: Erik Walden, Mike Adams, Darius Butler and Trent Cole. Ownership will want to see tangible signs that the team is making effective changes. That means the roster must be overhauled.
6. Chicago Bears
At least 13 Bears players can become free agents after starting during this season. That is one of the highest figures in the league. The figure does not include quarterback Jay Cutler, but Chicago can extricate itself from his contract without complication this offseason.
The Bears could easily afford to keep Cutler on the books from a cap standpoint, but this could be the year management seeks a fresh start. Cutler turns 34 this offseason, and he has not played all 16 games in a season since 2009. This season, he matched a career low with five games played. There are likewise no guarantees that the Bears will keep receiver Alshon Jeffery, while slot receiver Eddie Royal looks like a potential cap casualty.
It's also fair to wonder whether former big-money acquisitions Lamarr Houston and Pernell McPhee fit into Chicago's plans.
7. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' starters were the NFL's oldest in 2016. The oldest of the lot, Steve Smith Sr., has already announced his retirement. Tight end Benjamin Watson is older than Smith, coming off an injury and expensive for a backup, so he could be gone as well. Elvis Dumervil could become the Ravens' highest-profile cap casualty. Lardarius Webb, Jeremy Zuttah Kendrick Lewis and Kyle Arrington are also question marks, while Brandon Williams could escape in free agency.
Baltimore was one of six teams fitting three criteria: missed the playoffs, ranked among the top 10 for oldest starters and ranked among the top 20 for potential free agents with the most starts last season. The Redskins, Colts, Cardinals, Bengals and Saints are all on that list. As such, although Baltimore remains a model for stability at head coach and GM, the Ravens should have both the need and the incentive to make personnel changes.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
A new coaching staff and Tom Coughlin's hiring as executive vice president suggests a course change even though Dave Caldwell remains as GM. Ownership has shown a willingness to spend in free agency. The free-agent market could be a weak one, but since when is that a deterrent for the desperate?
There is some league consensus that Jacksonville has good, young defensive talent in place, so there could be less incentive to overhaul that side of the ball (veteran Jared Odrick could be a cap casualty). Cutting offensive mainstays Kelvin Beachum, Julius Thomas, Chris Ivory and even Blake Bortles would be easy to justify based on performance and/or cost. It remains to be seen how far the Jaguars will go in overhauling this offseason.
9. Washington Redskins
The Redskins will have a largely remade defensive staff and every reason to overhaul that side of the ball. That is where their talent is lacking the most and where they almost surely will funnel their draft resources. There could be high-profile changes on the offensive side of the ball as well. Quarterback Kirk Cousins probably isn't going anywhere, but receivers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson can both become free agents.
10. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has a league-high 134 starts associated with potential unrestricted free agents, and the team could part ways with defensive mainstay Calais Campbell, among others. Aging players such as Evan Mathis, Frostee Rucker and Chris Johnson also could be out.
The Cardinals have churned their roster aggressively since Steve Keim became general manager, doggedly looking for the right mix of veteran bargains. The urgency could be especially high after a disappointing 2016 season. Quarterback Carson Palmer turned 37 last month. Arizona will move up this list if he retires. But with receiver Larry Fitzgerald and coach Bruce Arians returning, the Cardinals of 2017 will still be quite recognizable.
11. Green Bay Packers
This is higher than the Packers would typically rank based on their well-earned reputation for sticking with home-grown talent. Quite a few established players face uncertain futures, however. Julius Peppers, Eddie Lacy, Nick Perry, Micah Hyde, T.J. Lang, JC Tretter and Jared Cook can all become unrestricted free agents. It's unclear how aggressive the Packers will be in retaining them, especially if GM Ted Thompson decides the team needs to go after a top-level defender in the tradition of Peppers and Charles Woodson. Sam Shields' future is also in question.
12. Dallas Cowboys
Ten projected free agents started at least one game for the Cowboys during the 2016 regular season, including Terrell McClain, Terrance Williams, Barry Church and Ronald Leary. The league suspended Rolando McClain and Randy Gregory for at least the next year. Meanwhile, there's a chance Tony Romo could be traded or released in the offseason.
13. San Diego Chargers
Two or three starting offensive linemen could be out as San Diego makes value judgments regarding Orlando Franklin, D.J. Fluker and King Dunlap. Receiver Stevie Johnson could also be on his way out. The Chargers are keeping GM Tom Telesco, but a new head coach will have an opportunity to influence personnel decisions in ways promoting change.
14. New England Patriots
Tom Brady and the coaching staff are returning, which means the Patriots will once again enjoy continuity in critical areas. New England ranks this high because coach Bill Belichick isn't afraid to change up the roster as he seeks the right players at the right prices.
Martellus Bennett, Dont'a Hightower, Logan Ryan, LeGarrette Blount, Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, Alan Branch, James Develin, Duron Harmon and Michael Floyd are among the familiar Patriots names eligible for free agency. Some will be back. Others will leave. Trading backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is another potential option.
15. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals began a bit of a roster overhaul last offseason, when receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left in free agency. They could part this offseason with veterans on offense such as tackles Andrew Whitworth and Eric Winston. A youth movement on defense is what the Bengals need most. Cincinnati had the NFL's second-oldest starting defense in 2016.
16. Carolina Panthers
GM Dave Gettleman battled a complicated salary-cap situation during his early years in Carolina. The Panthers will have great flexibility this offseason. The money they didn't spend on Josh Norman can help retain Kawann Short. The team would then be in position to upgrade its defense by adding multiple defenders through free agency (someone such as Logan Ryan would make sense). Lining up contingencies for Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis might also be smart. On offense, the Panthers could replace Jonathan Stewart.
17. Los Angeles Rams
A new coaching staff would usually bring sweeping changes to a team as inept as the Rams were this past season, but Los Angeles is locked into much of its key personnel. The Rams also lack first- and third-round draft choices in 2017, which limits their capacity for a talent infusion.
Quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and receiver Tavon Austin form the young core of offensive skill players. The Rams will not move on from any of them this offseason. They will make changes along their offensive line. There isn't much more pruning to do on defense after Chris Long, James Laurinaitis and Janoris Jenkins departed last offseason, but a scheme change will impact Mark Barron and others.
18. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are building around an athletic young core on defense. Most of their key players remain under contract. There will still be changes for an Atlanta team that remains relatively early in its construction despite its unexpected success this season.
Dwight Freeney, Jonathan Babineaux, Chris Chester, Philip Wheeler and Jacob Tamme are 30-and-older players eligible for free agency this offseason. Offensive scheme changes following Kyle Shanahan's departure adds another variable to the personnel equation.
19. New York Giants
The Giants need an overhaul on offense to whatever degree is feasible. They could especially use new personnel at running back and tight end. The big defensive spending spree last offseason won't help the team reach agreements with defensive linemen Jason Pierre-Paul or Johnathan Hankins. There also could be turnover in the secondary if the Giants decide Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's price exceeds his role.
20. Minnesota Vikings
Overhauling the offensive line looks like a given for Minnesota. The Vikings also could part with franchise rushing leader Adrian Peterson. The status quo appears likely to continue at quarterback, where Sam Bradford figures to buy time for a Teddy Bridgewater decision that might not come until after the 2017 season. But a revamped line and new lead rusher would constitute at least a moderate overhaul on offense.
21. Denver Broncos
The Broncos will have a new coaching staff for the second time since they finished the 2013 season with a Super Bowl defeat to Seattle. They might or might not go outside the roster for their next starting quarterback. The potential for significant change is great, but GM John Elway's vision is the constant. No team's projected free agents started fewer games in 2016 than the Broncos' did, and that's an indication that the talent base will not change dramatically. Both offensive tackles could be imperiled during another line rebuild, however.
22. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins presumably want to stay the course following a 10-6 season, but that might not be as easy if defensive coordinator Vance Joseph gets a head-coaching job. It's generally assumed that Miami will stick with quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but 2017 is the first year of the deal that Miami can create cap room by escaping the contract. A move at that position would mark a major change by itself.
23. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are perpetually battling a tight salary-cap situation. They have some additional flexibility this offseason and could be more active. The defense can always use reinforcements. New Orleans could also address its offensive line.
24. Tennessee Titans
GM Jon Robinson added a fancy new title this offseason (executive vice president) and should be empowered following a successful first year on the job. The Titans need an overhaul at cornerback. They could use a No. 1 wide receiver. Tennessee could address those positions in the draft and/or free agency. The Titans have extra picks in the first and third rounds.
25. Houston Texans
It's looking like the Texans will stay the course following a third successive 9-7 season. It's also natural to wonder what the fallout might be from the Texans' $37 million mistake on quarterback Brock Osweiler. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork could retire and cornerback A.J. Bouye is eligible for free agency.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers came close to reaching the Super Bowl, and they will presumably make another run with a similar roster. Lawrence Timmons, James Harrison and DeAngelo Williams are 30-plus contributors without contracts for 2017, but one or more could return. The way Le'Veon Bell performed over the season's second half should alleviate whatever questions remained about his future in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will presumably find a way to keep him for at least another season.
27. Philadelphia Eagles
GM Howie Roseman has invested heavily in retaining the Eagles' core players after dumping players associated with former coach Chip Kelly. Replenishing through the draft could be the next step for Philadelphia, which is why the Sam Bradford trade was so important. It's unclear whether running backs Ryan Mathews and/or Darren Sproles will return.
28. Detroit Lions
Resolving Matthew Stafford's contract could be a top priority, but if GM Bob Quinn follows his New England roots, the Lions will be craftier than they are aggressive in free agency. There could be additional personnel changes if the Lions lose one of their coordinators to a head-coaching job. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin in particular could have opportunities.
29. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's key players remain under contract for 2017, but the roster needs work for the Seahawks to reclaim the ground they've lost over the past couple of seasons. The offensive line could receive a partial overhaul. Every level of the defense needs reinforcement as well. GM John Schneider has made aggressive moves in the past, swinging trades for Marshawn Lynch, Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham. What does he have in mind for 2017?
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Continuity could be the priority for Tampa Bay, which is why it's important for the Buccaneers to keep defensive coordinator Mike Smith if possible. Doug Martin's situation is murky. Beyond that, the Buccaneers could be more concerned with keeping their own. Re-signing receiver Mike Evans before Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry set the market could make more sense than any kind of personnel overhaul.
31. Oakland Raiders
Re-signing Derek Carr and Khalil Mack figures to take priority. The Raiders have conducted massive overhauls in recent offseasons. This time, they will add to their roster instead of overhauling it.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Berry and Dontari Poe can become free agents. The Chiefs will need to get younger at inside linebacker, but the roster appears pretty well set. The coaching staff should return nearly intact, and there's a good chance Alex Smith will remain the starting quarterback. The Chiefs move up this list if Smith's status changes.