Six NFL teams are looking for head coaches, while others conduct end-of-season reviews that could lead to additional vacancies.
Conversations with league insiders from the management and coaching ranks shed light on which vacancies should be most appealing from candidates' perspectives. The Denver Broncos top the list, but the fiercest competition might have been for the bottom two spots.
1. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are the only team on this list with an established winning culture, an established strong front office and a roster that can win now, particularly on defense. Denver also has a strong home-field advantage, with a loyal fan base and the ever-present altitude. One insider called Denver the second-best home-field advantage in the league, behind Seattle.
"They have a top-performing defense with the talent to support it, specifically against the pass in a passing league," one insider said. "If Wade Phillips stays, you are supported by a veteran defensive staff that knows what they are doing. On offense, they have two very good receivers in a passing league. I also think [John] Elway is a top-notch executive willing to make the tough decisions, whether it's with John Fox or Gary Kubiak. He tells it like it is, and he has a good gut."
A willingness to do whatever it takes to win is the easy part. Knowing how to make that happen is tougher. The Broncos under Elway have been fearless. Of course, Elway's penchant for making bold decisions means even a successful coach might not have exceptional staying power in Denver (ask Fox, for example). Getting fired after winning beats getting fired after losing, but one evaluator did say he thought Elway appeared too involved for some coaches' tastes.
"At the end of the day, Elway improves your chances of winning," another insider said.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars lack the winning culture, strong front office and home-field advantage that helped make Denver the top team on this list. But the teams ranked below Jacksonville aren't necessarily squared away in those areas, either. Jacksonville ranks second because owner Shahid Khan appears patient and supportive without meddling and because the next coach should have little trouble succeeding relative to what came before him.
A head coach with a strong vision and leadership skills could succeed within those parameters. He won't be bothered by the unrealistic expectations surrounding openings such as the one in Los Angeles, where star power might be overvalued. The Jaguars' next coach could almost certainly do better than the team's 15-49 record during Gus Bradley's four-year run. The bar is set unusually low in Jacksonville, and there's enough young talent on defense to improve.
The next coach would inherit a GM in Dave Caldwell who might or might not be imperiled based on the Jaguars' poor record during his tenure.
"On the downside, ownership there is not savvy, and they like the London games, which are a headache for head coaches," one insider said. "The front office and ownership together have very little combined juice with league brass while providing little help on the football side with anything besides picking the players."
The next head coach would not necessarily be betting his tenure on quarterback Blake Bortles. The Jaguars could give Bortles one more season to prove himself before making a clean break without much trouble. One insider thought Bortles' time had passed already and that the team would respond better to a veteran stopgap as a bridge to the next quarterback. Multiple evaluators thought having the green light to move on from Bortles in Jacksonville might be better than being saddled with Jared Goff in Los Angeles.
"I think the Jaguars have more good young players than the Rams have at this point, and they have a first-round pick this year, which helps," one of these insiders said. "It is also simpler there in Jacksonville than it is in Los Angeles."
3. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams look better or worse based on what the next head coach thinks about the quarterback situation. Goff lost all seven of his starts, joining Cody Kessler and Zach Mettenberger as the only rookie quarterbacks since at least 2001 to start five-plus games without winning any. Goff also cost the Rams three early draft choices in 2016, plus first- and third-round picks this year. But the reasons Los Angeles went all-in for Goff remain the reasons a new coach might like him.
One insider who likes Goff said the Rams' job would be No. 1 on his list for long-term building.
"L.A. is the best place to build," this insider said. "They have a very talented young QB with a nice skill set and a new facility coming in a major market where it is sunny 300 days a year. They have some credible talent on defense. The owner is very hands off. You are a king in your kingdom there as long as you can get along with your personnel person."
Les Snead remains the Rams' GM after four seasons working alongside previous coach Jeff Fisher.
"The home field will always host a lot of transplant fans that will support the opposing team," one insider said. "They have absentee ownership that may place greater emphasis on real-estate development than the resources that help win games. They are also far behind Seattle organizationally in that division."
4. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have a skilled veteran quarterback in Philip Rivers, a productive young running back in Melvin Gordon, a talented wideout in Keenan Allen and a potentially dominant young pass-rusher in Joey Bosa. They also could spend the next couple of seasons playing in a minor league stadium as part of a relocation process. The next coach will also inherit a GM, Tom Telesco, who could be under pressure entering his fifth season in the role.
"I'd take the Rams over the Chargers, because they have a stadium plan in place," one insider said. "That has to help you recruit, whereas the Chargers are a year behind. There are just too many unknowns. The fewer unknowns you have, the more stable you are, the more you are on the road to winning in coachspeak."
The hard-line stance San Diego took in negotiations with Bosa strengthened ownership's reputation for keeping close watch over its wallet.
There can also be some challenges associated with inheriting a strong-willed veteran quarterback set in his ways. The Chargers committed more turnovers, 35, than any team in the league. Rivers is 13th in Total QBR over the past three seasons. He ranks fourth in touchdown passes over that span with 93, but also has a league-high 52 interceptions, one more than Bortles has thrown.
"Rivers needs to be coached, but will he accept it?" one insider asked.
5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers will be on their fourth head coach in four seasons, but at least their next one will start fresh with a new GM, so there's at least a chance for alignment where it is essential for long-term success. That makes the 49ers' opening more appealing than the one in Buffalo, where the next head coach will step into a muddled situation. But this is still not a great job.
"The 49ers' ownership is rudderless and impulsive," one insider said. "Their talent is far behind Arizona, L.A. and Seattle. This is also an intense media market with high expectations, and the other sports teams in the market are doing well."
The 49ers have no clear answer at quarterback. They do have the second overall choice in the 2017 draft and a roster stocked with recent draft choices, for better or worse.
"This is a long-haul job with no patience from the ownership," another evaluator said. "That is a bad combination for any head coach."
It's also not changing. As 49ers CEO Jed York put it recently, "I own this football team. You don't dismiss owners. I'm sorry that that's the facts and that's the case, but that's the fact."
One insider bristled at those remarks.
"You are the owner because you built this team, because you did great work?" the insider asked. "No, you are the owner because you inherited the team."
6. Buffalo Bills
Any coach considering the Bills' opening should watch the team's widely panned postseason news conference featuring GM Doug Whaley. Ownership was nowhere to be seen. Instead, Whaley fielded a series of questions he either could not or would not answer, revealing that he was "not privy" to discussions that precipitated Rex Ryan's firing as coach.
"At least with the 49ers, York came out and took the bullets," one insider said. "It felt like Whaley was the sacrificial lamb for ownership and [team president] Russ Brandon. Whaley did not give any reasons for reassurance, either. This one looks like a cluster."
Ryan lasted 31 games. His predecessor, Doug Marrone, opted out of his contract after two seasons. Marrone decided not coaching the Bills was better than coaching the Bills.
"You have a GM where you do not know where he fits in," another insider said. "He is an unknown, and it is not a good unknown. That would scare me to death. And then you have a president who used to be the GM, with an owner who has done it a short time."
Terry Pegula has owned the NHL's Buffalo Sabres since 2011. He and his wife, Kim Pegula, have owned the Bills since 2014. Rams owner Stan Kroenke also owns franchises in other sports, but he tends to keep his distance from daily operations. The structure in Buffalo is less clear, to the point that Whaley said during his news conference that he didn't know the full scope of Brandon's duties.
The Bills should arguably rank higher on this list -- above the 49ers, specifically -- simply because their talent was good enough to finish 7-9 even with all the apparent dysfunction.
"There is no proven quarterback, and it is compounded by a long history of no winning culture, the longest playoff drought in the league," one insider said. "Is there a strong management figure? Now, hockey owners are helping you call shots. Is it a power play, even strength or penalty kill?"