As Tony Romo read his six-minute statement last month accepting the job as the backup quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, you could tell he understood his career was at a crossroads.
When healthy, Romo is arguably one of the top eight quarterbacks in the NFL. He is 78-49 as a starter, and the Cowboys have averaged 25.4 points per game in those starts -- one of the best marks among active quarterbacks.
But Romo is 36 years old, and he has only played four games over the past two seasons due to back and collarbone injuries. Now, after rookie Dak Prescott won the starting job, Romo and the Cowboys face an interesting decision after the season.
The Cowboys could try to get Romo to take a pay cut and stay in Dallas as the backup. They could also try to offload his hefty contract in a trade -- or release him outright, which will hurt the Cowboys' salary cap.
Before we get into Romo's potential destinations, let's take a look at which option is most likely, based on my discussions with people around the NFL.
First, though, we have to mention his contract. Romo is scheduled to make $14 million next year and $40 million more over the final two years of his current contract, which expires in 2019. While $14 million might not be a lot in a quarterback market that now pays in the range of $20 million per year, that number severely hurts the Cowboys' market for Romo in a trade. Not many teams have a need for a starting quarterback and can take on his salary.
Because of his age and contract, Romo's value in a trade would probably be from Round 4 in the draft or lower. Plus there's the injury aspect.
"You have to question his durability," one NFL front-office executive said. "One hit could knock him out and diminish your investment."
I think it's more likely that the Cowboys end up releasing Romo than trading him this offseason -- if they can't convince him to take a pay cut. In fact, the Cowboys could get some cap relief by making him a post-June 1 release, which would only eat up $10.7 million of their 2017 cap. In doing that, they could roll over $8.9 million of Romo's dead money into 2018, rather than take a $19.6 million hit next year.
"That's why a trade may not totally benefit the Cowboys," another front-office exec told me. "The Cowboys can use that $8.9 million of cap room to get a few more players around Prescott. Dak makes around $680,000 a year. The benefit of having a starting quarterback taken in the fourth round is you have three more years to clean up your cap and get a few more players to make the team better."
So where will Romo be playing in 2017? Below are my percentage chances for his potential destinations, including returning to Dallas, from most to least likely:
Realistic possibilities
Chicago Bears: 40 percent chance
There are contingencies to these odds. First, the Bears would have to retain John Fox as coach. Romo likely wouldn't want to go to a team that is breaking in a current coordinator as a head coach. Second, the Cowboys would need to release him so he can make this choice. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones could accommodate Romo because of their stellar relationship.
I could see the Bears taking a two-way approach to replacing Jay Cutler at quarterback. The first move would be to commit a second-round pick to acquiring a quarterback. They could offer a second-round pick in a trade for New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo and, if necessary, add a third-round pick in 2018 -- something similar to the Alex Smith trade by Kansas City.
If the Bears can't get Garoppolo, they could sign Romo and use the second-round pick on a quarterback to groom behind him. For quarterbacks, it's looking like the 2017 draft could be similar to the 2013 draft, in which the best quarterbacks were rating more in the middle of the first round than up top. Such a draft allows the Bears, who will likely pick in the top five, to use their first pick on a top defensive player and use their second on a quarterback.
"Tony could be very interested in hooking up with John Fox," a third front-office exec told me. "All he has to do is call Peyton Manning, who will tell him that John would give Tony the freedom to do his job at quarterback."
New York Jets: 30 percent
This would be more on the Jets than it would be on Romo. The Jets have to figure out which direction they want to go with their roster. For two years, they have had an older roster filled with 30-year-old-plus players. That strategy worked the first year with 10 wins. This year, the team looks old and is 3-9. Ryan Fitzpatrick came back on a one-year deal and probably won't be back. Most believe the Jets will go outside of the organization next year for a quarterback, because they don't know if Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg are the answers at the position.
"This will be a tough call for the Jets," a fourth front-office executive said. "They may not want to go with Romo at the age of 37 if they are going to rebuild the roster and get younger. I can see them tearing up some of the age on that team, and if they do, Romo might not be the option."
Dallas Cowboys: 25 percent
Some believe staying in Dallas as the backup might be Romo's best option. Jones could redo Romo's deal and give him a three-year contract at $21 million to be the backup, which would resolve any of the salary-cap issues over the next three years and give the Cowboys the best of both worlds: Prescott and Romo.
"Tony has meant so much to the Cowboys and so much for the Jones family that he should be able to stay as a Cowboys," the fourth front-office executive said. "The worst thing he could do is go to some rebuilding team and then suffer an injury that could end his career. He does need to think about his health in making a decision."
Longshots
Denver Broncos: 2 percent
This would be the ideal situation for Romo, but it's not likely the direction general manager John Elway would take. The Broncos have two young quarterbacks: Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. They invested a first-round pick on Lynch to be the quarterback of the future.
"This wouldn't be the same as what Elway did with Peyton Manning," another front-office executive said. "John took a chance on an older quarterback and gambled on his back injury with the idea Peyton could get them to the Super Bowl. He got them to two. Where this is different is that Tony's injury situation is trickier, and there is no guarantee he can stay on the field as long as Peyton did."
The Broncos feel their potential for a Super Bowl run still has a few more years, particularly with the quality of their defense. Romo would seem like a one-year fix, but Elway could use the money it would cost for Romo to instead maintain and build the roster for the long term.
Buffalo Bills: 1 percent
The Bills could take a look at Romo if they decide to move on from Tyrod Taylor, who signed a team-friendly extension before the season. Buffalo could decline his 2017 option with minimal effect on its salary cap. Taylor has struggled lately, and now he has a three-game audition. Ownership also has to determine if it wants to keep Rex Ryan as coach. Ryan could take the position that the Bills are a quarterback away from the playoffs, which gives Romo another option. Still, it's hard to imagine the Bills would go with an older quarterback with a history of injuries.
Cleveland Browns: 1 percent
The Browns ripped up their roster to go young, trying to build a team for the future. It might take until the end of Romo's current contract in 2019 for Cleveland to be a factor. Romo going to Cleveland just isn't a match.
San Francisco 49ers: 1 percent
The 49ers have a lot to figure out. They are a couple years away from winning, and they have to determine whether they want to keep or get rid of Colin Kaepernick. Odds figure he could be released or traded.
It's hard to picture Romo in San Francisco's fast-paced offense under coach Chip Kelly. Plus, Romo probably wouldn't want to go to a team that is more than a year away from winning.
No chance
Washington Redskins: 0 percent
The more Kirk Cousins continues to evolve as a starting quarterback, the less chance the Redskins have of needing a quarterback. They could franchise the free-agent-to-be at a little less than $24 million if they can't get done a long-term deal. With Cousins, the Redskins have been in the playoff hunt for two seasons.
"There is no way Jerry Jones would let Tony out of his contract to go to a division rival like the Redskins," front-office exec No. 2 said. "And you know he wouldn't trade him to the Redskins. I just don't think the Redskins are going to part with Cousins."
Should the Redskins not sign Cousins, they might go for Cutler, whom they looked at a couple years ago. Regardless, this looks like Cousins' team.
Minnesota Vikings: 0 percent
If Teddy Bridgewater doesn't come back from his bad knee injury, the Vikings have Sam Bradford under contract for the 2017 season. There's no spot for Romo in Minnesota.
Arizona Cardinals: 0 percent
The Cardinals had great success getting Carson Palmer from the Oakland Raiders for virtually nothing. This season has been a disappointment, but if Arizona is going to go with an older quarterback, it would be Palmer -- not Romo.