Tom Brady's triumphant return from suspension at Cleveland in Week 5 relegated the New England Patriots' remarkable month without him to footnote status in the public conversation. His 406 yards and 96.4 Total QBR score led the league Sunday, shifting the focus back to the Patriots' Super Bowl prospects with their legendary QB back in place.
Jimmy Garoppolo's impressive cameo as Brady's short-term replacement remains on the books, however, and the ramifications are considerable. Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback in league history, will be approaching his 41st birthday when Garoppolo can become a free agent in March 2018. That gives the Patriots 28 regular-season games to figure out how they plan to handle an enviable dilemma.
Trading Garoppolo this year or next will be one option (the 2016 deadline falls Nov. 1). The team under Bill Belichick has sought to sell high and buy low when it comes to the trade market, dealing still-productive players such as Drew Bledsoe, Matt Cassel and Richard Seymour. Garoppolo's performance during Brady's four-game suspension will only increase his value in a league desperate for QBs.
What would the Patriots demand in return for Garoppolo if they decided to unload him? Three longtime NFL team executives answered the question while exploring intriguing alternatives, including whether the Patriots would consider the unthinkable.
Sam Bradford and then some
The Minnesota Vikings shipped first- and fourth-round picks to Philadelphia for Bradford. The first executive polled for this survey thought the Patriots should ask for more. First- and second-round picks would be the minimum. Two firsts would be the goal.
The Patriots would need to determine whether Garoppolo is dramatically better as a prospect than Jacoby Brissett, the team's third-round rookie. But this exec thought the Patriots would feel as though they could coach up a range of quarterbacks to perform well enough for the team to win. Keep Garoppolo if he's special, but otherwise, sell high.
"You get a first and a second in a heartbeat, but you ask for two firsts," this exec said. "That is where the divide is. And the middle ground might be a first and two seconds. San Francisco got two seconds for Alex Smith, but he had already failed."
Garoppolo, drafted 62nd overall in 2014, has started two games, finished one and totaled 105 snaps this season before suffering a shoulder injury.
Would other teams really give up two firsts for a player with such a limited résumé? The Rams gave up two firsts, two seconds and two thirds as part of a package to select Jared Goff. The Eagles gave up two firsts, one second and one third in clearing the way for selecting Carson Wentz. The gap between Bradford's trade value and on-field résumé was massive, but the Vikings are looking smart for making the deal.
"It is the way of the world," this exec said. "We are so quick to make up our minds when we don't really know. At least you know Garoppolo can do it. Can he do it for a long period of time? Quarterback is a weird deal, because out of nowhere a guy can just suddenly perform. You don't know if he can play, but he is performing."
Brady's age changes the dynamic
The Patriots didn't hesitate trading Cassel following his successful 2008 season, because they knew Brady would return from injury and play for many years to come. Trading Garoppolo would be tougher for New England at this stage of Brady's career. That is why a second executive thought the Patriots might not deal Garoppolo unless the price were over the top.
"If they think Garoppolo is good, they will keep him," this exec said. "When Garoppolo played, he looked better than just a guy. But that is part of the brilliance of their whole design. Brady was not a good deep-ball thrower when he came into the league, so Charlie Weis made it a dink-and-dunk offense. People criticized Brady, but then he got better. They will identify what Garoppolo can do and will never be married to a system."
This exec thought the Houston Texans' experience with Brock Osweiler -- underwhelming so far, though it's early -- could hurt the market for Garoppolo in the absence of a team suddenly desperate for help at the position. What would the Patriots be able to get?
"I have no idea," this exec said. "I don't think it would be as high as the Bradford situation, because there are enough examples of guys who were backups, went somewhere and were not successful, especially when they were not with coaches who knew them well."
In theory, the team acquiring Garoppolo would gain control of him through the 2017 season on the cheap and through 2018 on the franchise tag -- essentially three seasons at somewhere less than $25 million. In reality, any team acquiring Garoppolo would probably sign him to an extension as part of the arrangement. This would be an all-in move for the acquiring team.
Garoppolo might be off-limits
A third executive said quarterback-needy teams have gotten nowhere in the past when asking the Patriots what it might take to acquire Garoppolo. There was no price mentioned, because New England wasn't interested in having the conversation. The Patriots know Brady's time is winding down. They also knew for a long period that Brady could miss games to suspension.
"I don't blame them," this exec said. "You have an older QB, and you've got another one you like. Even if you got two ones for what could be your Aaron Rodgers coming after Brett Favre or Steve Young after Joe Montana, what two players from the college draft could come close to that?"
The Packers traded Favre when they had Rodgers lined up to replace him. The 49ers did the same with Montana when clearing the way for Young. The Patriots trading Brady sounds unthinkable. Is it any less unthinkable than the Packers unloading Favre or the 49ers unloading Montana? Favre was 38 and coming off a 13-3 season in which he ranked seventh in Total QBR (70.6) when the Packers traded him. Montana was 36 and coming off injury.
"The interesting thing to me is whether Bill Belichick would ever decide to trade Brady," this exec said. "Does Bill go out with Tom or has Garoppolo shown enough where Bill goes, 'I can stay with him'?"
Summing it up
Execs from multiple teams placed Garoppolo atop the list of potentially available quarterbacks. There will be no shortage of teams in the market. Demand will fluctuate with injuries. Current Patriots assistant coaches such as Josh McDaniels could become head coaches in 2017, affecting the market. How Brady plays will influence the Patriots' need for a successor.
New England could comfortably wait another year before deciding how to proceed. The price for Garoppolo -- unknown for now, but at least what Bradford commanded, in theory -- isn't going down.