Through the first three weeks of the season, Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian has posted a Total QBR of 68.8. That's a bump from the 52.2 QBR the Broncos recorded during the 2015 season with Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler under center. And while three games is still a very small sample size, the Broncos' decision to open up the offense a bit more on Sunday versus the Cincinnati Bengals raises the question: Is this team better off with Siemian running the show?
After Siemian threw for 312 yards and four touchdowns in that Week 3 win over the Bengals, let's examine how the Broncos are increasing his role in the game plan. With more deep shots and an emphasis on creating more one-on-one matchups outside of the numbers, the Broncos are in a position to complement the running game and their top-tier defense with the young quarterback.
The double moves
During Weeks 1 and 2, Siemian threw just one ball that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. One. That's an amazing number in today's league, given the amount of deep shots we see every week. In fact, Siemian averaged just 5.76 air yards per pass in those first two games. That ranked 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
But this was part of the Broncos' plan with Siemian, who hadn't thrown a single regular-season NFL pass entering this season. That meant underneath throws and screen passes for Siemian on a team that could still win because of its ability to run the ball and play nasty defense. It was a controlled, or reduced, game plan for the young quarterback in the first two weeks of the season.
The change we saw in Week 3 is a big reason Broncos fans should be optimistic.
Here's an example of Siemian's touchdown pass to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on the double move (out and up) versus the Bengals' pressure package. Find the one-on-one matchup and take a shot.
With the Bengals sending man pressure (free safety over the top), the Broncos counter with seven-man protection. This creates time for the double move to develop outside with Sanders working against Bengals cornerback Adam Jones. Sanders stems up the field, sells the out (quickly) and then presses the route vertically over the top, with the Broncos running two inside-breaking routes to the front side of the formation.
Siemian uses a slight slide step to move in the pocket while identifying the matchup he wants -- Sanders versus Jones. Plus, with the inside dig routes essentially holding the free safety in the middle of the field, Siemian knows he has a true one-on-one outside with no immediate help over the top. Set the feet and sling it.
Sanders has to adjust to this ball (see photo below). It's thrown a little behind him to the back shoulder. But Siemian put enough air under this ball and gave Sanders a shot to make the play after the wide receiver separated down the field. And more important, it was an aggressive look from an offense -- and a quarterback -- that had been very cautious in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Broncos came back to the same concept later in the game when Siemian hit Demaryius Thomas for a touchdown. Sure, they dressed it up a bit based on the formation, and Thomas ran a stutter and go, but again, it was another deep shot -- with more seven-man protection and an excellent job from Thomas stacking on top of the defensive back to finish the play for six points.
Now, two deep shots over the top of the secondary is pretty standard (per half) for most teams in the league. But to see the Broncos finally challenge the opposing secondary is good for business in Denver. And it's a start for Siemian. Plus, it tells us that the Broncos are gaining more confidence in their young quarterback to take some chances within the game plan.
Targeting Sanders and Thomas
Siemian posted a Total QBR of 87.1 versus the Bengals, averaging 8.91 yards per attempt. That's a jump from the 52.2 QBR and 7.53 yards per attempt Siemian recorded in Weeks 1 and 2. It's no coincidence that jump occurred as Siemian looked toward Sanders and Thomas more often.
Take a look at their numbers in Week 3 as compared to the first two games:
Putting the deep balls aside, I thought Siemian saw the field much better against the Bengals, and he was quicker to identify his primary targets. Just look at the underneath throws and the matchups that Siemian went after.
We could see that on his second touchdown pass to Sanders. It was an out route in the red zone with Sanders aligned in the slot. Clear out space to the outside and let Sanders use his speed to separate versus a nickel cornerback. And the throw? It was a dime -- with some heat on it. Put the ball away from the defender and get six. Money.
Plus, Siemian started to develop a rhythm as the game progressed. At the end of the first quarter, Siemian was only 5-of-12 for 49 yards. And he was struggling with his accuracy. But on the fourth-quarter drive that put the Broncos ahead, he went 7-for-7 for 75 yards and capped it off with a 1-yard touchdown to tight end John Phillips off the boot action.
Siemian targeted Sanders and Thomas a combined four times on underneath throws. The quarterback hit Sanders on the slant and the wide receiver screen, with Thomas making grabs on the curl and hitch. That's playing within the system and finding your top options in the passing game to move the sticks.
Keep the formula simple
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Broncos rank 13th overall with 113 yards rushing per game, while the Denver defense is giving up only 306.6 yards (seventh) and 19.0 points per game (eighth). In short, the plan isn't going to dramatically change after Sunday's production from Siemian. This team is still built on running the ball and playing lights-out defense.
However, the fact that the Broncos are starting to open up the passing game a little for Siemian is a major positive. That can create more underneath and intermediate throwing windows, while also pushing the secondary down the field. And in turn, that results in a much lighter run front to attack for C.J. Anderson.
As I said above, three games is a very small sample size. But if Siemian can continue to develop within the Broncos' game plan, this could be a very dangerous team. And they might just be better off with Siemian at the quarterback position to fit their style of play.