John Elway is not the type of general manager who will accept a quarterback with a midtier ceiling. That's why he parted ways with Tim Tebow four years ago, as it was clear Tebow would be hard-pressed to develop into a top-15 quarterback.
Elway instead decided to take a risk on a 36-year-old quarterback coming off four surgeries, but one who would have a high ceiling if things worked out. After two Super Bowl appearances and one Lombardi Trophy in four years with Peyton Manning as the primary starter, it's clear that risk paid off.
Given Brock Osweiler's performance last year, during which he ranked 24th in Total QBR (48.8) and 28th in yards per dropback (6.0), it's no surprise Elway seemed to put him into the midtier ceiling category and thus was willing to let him depart via free agency.
If Elway's history is any indication, he will look for a high-ceiling option when picking his next quarterback, even if that player comes with some risk. In that case, the best candidate is Robert Griffin III.
A top-flight history of vertical and stretch vertical passing
The Broncos were awful in both the vertical (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and stretch vertical (20 or more yards downfield) route depths last season.
Denver ranked 31st in vertical Total QBR (55.2) and 29th in stretch vertical QBR (38.3). These numbers did not vary much regardless of who was under center, as Osweiler (52.5 vertical QBR, 35.7 stretch vertical QBR) and Manning (57.2 vertical, 40 stretch vertical) both struggled mightily in these areas.
Griffin, on the other hand, has been an elite player at these route depth levels.
He placed first among BCS conference passers in vertical yards per attempt (17) and tied for first in vertical QBR (99.4) in his Heisman Trophy-winning season at Baylor in 2011. Griffin's stretch vertical numbers were equally strong in that campaign, ranking first among BCS conference quarterbacks in QBR (99.8), touchdowns (21), yards (1,506) and completion percentage (48.5 percent) in that category.
Griffin's rookie NFL season was equally strong on downfield throws, as he was No. 1 in vertical QBR (97.9), vertical yards per attempt (14.6) and vertical completion percentage (58.6). He was also tops in stretch vertical QBR (99.7) and second in completion percentage (45.7) and YPA (16.4) at that route depth level.
Griffin's vertical and stretch vertical numbers dropped in his second NFL season, but they moved back up in 2014, when he ranked first in vertical YPA (13.7) among passers with 150 or more pass attempts that season.
Upper-tier play-action production
Griffin could also upgrade a Broncos play-action passing game that was among the worst in the league last season. Denver quarterbacks ranked 26th in play-action QBR (56.0) and 29th in play-action vertical pass QBR (68.2).
Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson were the only BCS conference passers with higher play-action QBR marks than Griffin (90.6) in the 2011 college season. Griffin also ranked third in play-action YPA that season (12.4).
This trend continued in Griffin's first pro season, as he had the highest YPA on play-action passes (12.5) and ranked second in play-action QBR (87.9).
Griffin's play-action QBR dropped in 2014 (71.6, ranked tied for 15th among passers with 150 or more attempts) but his 99.4 vertical pass play-action QBR ranked tied for third and thus indicates this skill is still in Griffin's arsenal.
Strong offensive platoon outside of quarterback position
Denver has a superb starting wide receiver tandem in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who both had a history of posting upper-caliber vertical receiving numbers before the Broncos' quarterback play fell off this past year (they ranked fourth and 13th, respectively, in composite vertical receiving yards during the 2013 and 2014 seasons). The offensive line could also be improved, as both Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay are projecting the Broncos to draft an offensive tackle in the first round of the 2016 draft.
Bottom line
Griffin is a perfect fit for a Gary Kubiak offense from a skill-set perspective. Although there are concerns about his history in Washington, some of those issues can be chalked up to the chaos that seems to be a part of that organization.
Denver doesn't have those problems in large part due to Elway, a fact that should help Elway convince Griffin that he can come in and give this franchise a chance to make a dynastic run over the next few years.