With Chip Kelly taking over as the new head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, the discussion has immediately shifted to how his system is a fit for quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
From the zone-read, to run/pass options (RPOs) and offensive tempo, there are certain aspects of Kelly's playbook that cater to Kaepernick's athleticism at the position. We can all agree on that. He's a dual-threat guy, a quarterback with the size/speed combo to carry the ball on designed runs and the arm strength to challenge opposing secondaries in Kelly's passing game.
But if Kaepernick returns to San Francisco in 2016, is it realistic to expect a complete reversal of his regression as a passer just because the scheme changed?
Let's break down the positives of Kaepernick playing in Kelly's offense next season and also discuss why the quarterback still has to take more steps in his development at the position to see true success.
Zone-read/RPOs
At first glance, it's easy to like Kaepernick working out of the shotgun in Kelly's zone-read running system. Just think about Kaepernick reading the end man on the line of scrimmage, or the force player, while riding the running back through the mesh point (quarterback-running back exchange). That allows the quarterback to essentially block the extra defender with the ability to pull the ball on the edge.
That was missing last season in Philadelphia with Sam Bradford running the offense under Kelly, as the threat of the quarterback keep never showed up on the tape. For example, check out this play from the Eagles-Panthers matchup in 2015 with Bradford reading Carolina cornerback Charles Tillman through the mesh point.
If Tillman crashes hard on the dive, or the inside zone give to running back DeMarco Murray, the Eagles quarterback is now in a position to pull the ball, attack the edge and pick up yardage. If Tillman hesitates, now the Eagles have a running lane to expose with the back bending the zone path up the field. That's a beautiful thing (especially in key down-and-distance situations), but you need a quarterback to bring that threat to the field.
With Kaepernick, the 49ers will have that option to run more zone-read concepts in Kelly's offense. And while it's not going to be the top call in the game plan every week, having that option in the playbook is a positive with the possible Kelly-Kaepernick combo in San Francisco.
Looking at the RPOs (run-pass options) -- or the packaged plays -- in Kelly's system, the same theory applies while adding another dimension with Kaepernick (the quarterback keep). These RPOs give the offense the ability to execute a run play and a pass play within the same huddle call based off the defensive alignment.
The diagram below shows an Eagles RPO from the Monday night matchup this past season against the New York Giants. In this situation, the Eagles are running the "buck sweep" to the front side of the formation (pull two offensive linemen to the play side) with a built-in wide receiver screen (called a "rocket screen") to the back side.
This is an easy read for Bradford based on the Giants' pre-snap look versus the Eagles' stack alignment to the back side of the formation. This is all about playing the numbers as the Eagles have a two-on-one. That allows Bradford to quickly throw the rocket screen for a positive gain.
Now think about adding a "read" for Kaepernick off that "buck sweep" (read backside edge defender) -- or any other packaged play in Kelly's playbook. That added dimension does make a difference when forcing the opposing defense to play disciplined football with its run-pass keys versus the bubble, slant, quick pop pass and the built-in runs.
The dropback passing game
Kelly didn't re-create the passing game when he came to the NFL from Oregon, and it shows up on the tape. Everyone from New England to Arizona to Carolina to Green Bay runs similar stuff as the Eagles -- four verticals, the spot route (corner-curl-flat), boot, hide boot, stick-outs, smash routes, Hi-Lo concepts and more. These are pro-style routes, and it's on the quarterback to make the throws.
Check out Kelly's Hi-Lo "mesh concept" in the diagram. It looks like there's a lot going on here, but it's really an inside pick play (two shallow crossers) paired with a dig route to give Bradford a high-to-low read with the running back, Darren Sproles, releasing on the quick wheel or rail route.
Create traffic, force defenders to work over the top of the inside picks and try to get the running back matched up against a linebacker. This route, which is one of Kelly's favorites, is run on Sundays across the NFL (from a ton of different formations) and also in the college and high school games. This thing shows up on Friday nights more than you would think -- because it works.
There are aspects of Kelly's passing game such as the boot plays, the play-action to open up inside throwing windows to the seam, and the quick three-step concepts that do mesh with the idea of having Kaepernick running the system. Plus, Kelly can scheme deeper breaking routes with combinations that lead to vertical one-on-one opportunities for Kaepernick over the top.
But it still comes back to ball placement, accuracy and decision-making to produce in the passing game under Kelly.
Technique vs. scheme
Kelly's offense is a proven system, one that produces numbers when the proper pieces are in place. But it's not that much different at its core when examining the rest of the league.
Everyone runs RPOs. Heck, Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears lived on those schemes this past season under Adam Gase. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers run them too. And the route schemes are pretty standard when the concept finally plays out. Four verticals and boot live in every single NFL playbook.
Is Kaepernick a fit? Yeah, I would say he is when looking at what he brings to this offense because of his athleticism, size and big league arm. But it's very important to remember that Kaepernick's tape from the past two seasons was choppy, and I have plenty of concerns when studying his technique at the position. From his footwork to his accuracy and decision-making, there is room for improvement to take the next step as a pro. Kaepernick's overall development has somewhat plateaued.
That has to change if he's going to see real success with Kelly in San Francisco. This is about technique and core fundamentals. Those trump scheme every time. And it will be on Kaepernick to show those improvements under Kelly. If he doesn't, it won't matter what plays Kelly calls.