NFL draft 2022 notes and rumors: Last-minute updates on potential Round 1 trades, rising prospects, surprise picks

This might be the toughest time of year to get reliable NFL information. There is no bigger smokescreen season than the pre-draft season, when it's easy to get sources on the phone but hard to know how much of what they're telling you is true. We do our best, but no matter how many mock drafts or pre-draft notebooks you read, you have to understand there's very little we know for certain.

That said, we believe we're pretty good at figuring out which stuff feels more real than other stuff. And we are making a lot of calls right now. So what we wanted to do here was share with you some of the best, most real-feeling, reliable-sounding stuff we're hearing with Round 1 of the 2022 draft set to start Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN and ABC).

Who's going where, who likes whom, which teams could trade up, trade down, trade a player on their roster -- all of it. Hopefully, if nothing else, it gets you fired up and maybe a little bit educated before you sit down and start to find out what really happens:

Jump to a topic:
How far could Stingley rise?
The Packers' plan on Day 2
What could the Giants do early?
Trade buzz: Who could move up?
Will Deebo Samuel get dealt?
Latest on Malik Willis' stock

What are the Jaguars thinking at No. 1?

Unlike last year, when the whole world knew the Jaguars were taking Trevor Lawrence, or the year before, when the whole world knew the Bengals were taking Joe Burrow, we really don't know for sure who the No. 1 pick will be Thursday night.

ESPN NFL draft analyst Todd McShay shook up some folks earlier this week when he wrote that Georgia edge rusher Travon Walker sounded as if he would be Jacksonville's pick, and it definitely sounds as if Walker is a strong possibility. The other contenders are Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson or one of the top tackles, Evan Neal (Alabama) or Ikem Ekwonu (NC State).

Everybody I've talked to believes the Lions, picking at No. 2, would sprint to the proverbial podium to take Hutchinson if the Jaguars don't. If Jacksonville does pick Hutchinson, it's unclear whether the Lions would prefer Walker or Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux, though it really sounds as if edge rusher is their focus with that pick.

No one seems to have a handle on what Houston will do at No. 3, in part because the Texans have so many obvious needs. If that pick isn't a wide receiver, though, I would watch for Houston to target a pass-catcher with its second pick (No. 13). That's assuming it doesn't trade out. -- Graziano

Why Stingley is back in the top-10 conversation

Scouts and execs I talked to believe the Giants (No. 7) and Seahawks (No. 9) are among teams to watch for LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who seems to have worked his way back into the top-10 conversation. There's even some buzz about the Texans at No. 3, though Houston general manager Nick Caserio has kept his team's plans very tight, as you wrote, Dan.

Stingley's stellar pro day helped his cause, and he came across as polished in team interviews. After a brilliant freshman season in 2019, he got knocked for erratic play over 10 games the past two seasons, due in part to injury.

Still, many evaluators prefer Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner over Stingley as the top corner in the class. Teams also wonder whether Stingley simply got bored after a successful freshman year, which coincided with LSU's decline.

"Teams needed the pro day to confirm what they know he can be athletically, and he did that," a scout with an AFC team told me. Added an exec from another AFC team: "Let's not complicate this -- he's a really good football player." -- Fowler

Packers' need for speed

One thing I heard: Watch out for Green Bay, despite holding two first-round picks and needing to replace Davante Adams, potentially going a different direction and taking a Day 2 receiver, such as Baylor speedster Tyquan Thornton.

The Packers have had success drafting receivers in the second round -- Adams and Jordy Nelson, among others -- and perhaps they will continue that tradition. They want to add that speed element to replace Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the Packers believe Thornton has a high ceiling. He ran a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and acquitted himself well in interviews. The Saints also have spent a lot of time researching Thornton.

The Packers will get Aaron Rodgers pass-caching help somewhere in the draft, and other teams believe Green Bay could be a threat to move up for a blue-chip option. But that would stray from the Green Bay blueprint. -- Fowler

Another name I've heard the Packers have done a lot of work on is Virginia tight end Jelani Woods. Look, everybody wants the Packers to take a wide receiver in the first round -- something they've done only once since 1988. But they might also decide Woods is the better way to go because of his physical traits and upside.

The Packers, as much as any other team, view the draft from a long-term perspective and believe in their ability to develop players over time. -- Graziano

Take your Pickens

Georgia's George Pickens is a true outside X receiver who could rise into the late first round. He could also go deep into Day 2, due in part to off-the-field concerns. Pickens told me that he believes his range is Nos. 25 to 45, and the Packers, Chiefs and Cardinals are among teams that have done lots of homework on him.

Pickens told me he believes he's the draft's best wideout because "as a big target that can run 4.4 [40], I can do what [other receivers] can along with having size. ... When you can do all of those things [at 6-foot-3], it's a no-brainer."

Pickens says he takes pride in blocking, comes from a pro-style system at Georgia and has closely studied the greats, such as Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp.

Several NFL execs believe Pickens, on talent alone, would be talked about among the top five receivers, but teams have some concerns. Pickens was suspended for a half-game at Georgia and had a well-publicized fight with a Georgia Tech player in the end zone. He also tore his ACL in March 2021 and caught only five passes this past season.

Pickens believes he has matured since that fight. "The internet can portray you in different ways, but seeing me in a different light, I believe teams were pleasantly surprised," Pickens said. "A lot of teams wanted to get to know me personally, so I took a few business trips and believe they saw that side of me." -- Fowler

A pass-rusher on the rise

Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II is seeming more like a top-10 lock now. When I talk to people with teams picking high in the draft, they often mention him, and the pass-rush conversation always includes him. One NFL coordinator calls him the most polished pass-rusher of the entire class. Another coordinator says there are similarities to Danielle Hunter, who has starred for the Vikings.

Watch for the Jets, who pick at Nos. 4 and 10. I'm told they are high on Johnson. I recently caught up with Seminoles coach Mike Norvell, who said his former ACC Defensive Player of the Year was a great example for young FSU players and worked hard in class to obtain the 36 hours needed to graduate. "He has a chance to grow into a complete player in the league," Norvell said. "Great versatility." -- Fowler

What could the Giants do in the top 10?

Johnson is also of interest to the other New York team. The Giants have pick Nos. 5 and 7, and my sense is they'd ideally like to take an offensive tackle with one of those and trade down with the other to try to get an additional first-round pick next year. (Of course, they aren't the only team hoping to do that, and so far there are precious few teams that seem interested in moving up.)

If the Giants stay put, one would think tackle (Ekwonu, Neal or Mississippi State's Charles Cross, with Neal I believe their favorite if all three are available) would be the pick at No. 5, because they have legitimate reason to worry that Carolina might snag one of them at No. 6.

Assuming that's what happens, the Giants could go several different ways at No. 7. They're high on Gardner, for example. But the organization has a history of valuing edge rushers, and if Johnson or Thibodeaux is there, New York would at the very least be tempted to go that way. -- Graziano

Trade watch: Draft picks

Want to trade back? Join the club: Several teams want to trade out of the top 10, but many evaluators believe that will be tough, given the lack of can't-miss, elite talents atop the draft.

In fact, those same evaluators predict more movement in the 11-14 range because some teams believe the variance between Nos. 1 and 14 isn't steep. If a player teams thought wouldn't be available in the early teens somehow drops, calls will be made.

We're hearing Seattle (No. 9) has received calls from teams, though, so perhaps that's a pivot point to watch closely. -- Fowler

One team to watch for a potential trade up is the Saints, who have a history of doing it and already have done it once this year. They did an eight-pick swap with the Eagles a couple of weeks ago that moved them up from No. 18 to No. 16 while also adding No. 19 and sending away their 2023 first-rounder in the process. The upshot is the Saints are now ahead of the Chargers (No. 17) and have multiple first-rounders in case they want to make a big move up the board to get the player they want.

People to whom I've spoken are split on what they think New Orleans is planning. Some believe the Saints are positioning themselves to get one of the offensive tackles, because they have to replace Terron Armstead, who signed with the Dolphins in free agency. With the Chargers possibly looking at tackles, too, it would make sense to try to move ahead of them just in case.

Others believe the Saints are trying to move up to get one of the big wide receivers, though we don't know which one. It seems unlikely they're positioning themselves to move up for a quarterback, though Jameis Winston's contract is effectively a one-year deal and you can never rule anything out. Regardless, keep an eye on the Saints. -- Graziano

Trade watch: Current players

49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel recently requested a trade, and many of the people I spoke to around the league consider the Jets the front-runners, though even some interested teams don't expect the 49ers to move off Samuel in the short term. Multiple teams are calling, and it's believed San Francisco is at least listening. I'm told the Lions and Packers also have interest. As one source pointed out, "It would take so much for Kyle [Shanahan] to trade him to Green Bay," given the rivalry both in the NFC and between the two coaches: Shanahan and Matt LaFleur.

Samuel is the only big-name receiver who seems like a threat to be dealt. I'm getting strong indications Seattle is not dealing DK Metcalf. The Seahawks know he has generational ability that would be hard to give away. A.J. Brown is in a similar spot with Tennessee. After talking with people there, the feeling is very much that Brown will be with the Titans long term. He has been in touch with coaches, and everyone is in a good place. -- Fowler

Other potential candidates to be traded during draft week include but are not limited to: Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, Giants cornerback James Bradberry, Bears quarterback Nick Foles (yes, he's still there!) and Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. Add Houston offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil to that list if the Texans use the No. 3 pick on a tackle and some team (Saints?) is desperate enough for tackle help that it is willing to pay a lot for it.

I don't get the sense that the Jimmy Garoppolo market is hot right now, and the 49ers have made their peace with the fact that teams won't be willing to part with much in exchange for Garoppolo until after they've see him thrown in late June/early July coming off shoulder surgery.

Keep in mind: As of now, teams are allowed to trade picks from only the 2022, 2023 and 2024 drafts. Once the draft starts Thursday night, teams are also allowed to trade 2025 draft picks. So if a team is short on picks in the next couple of years, it might have more capital with which to deal once the draft begins. -- Graziano

Willis' stock watch

Among the teams on the radar of Liberty quarterback Malik Willis are the Panthers (No. 6), Falcons (No. 8), Steelers (No. 20) and, yes, even the Lions (Nos. 2 and 32). Willis going No. 2 would shock many. But here's why I won't totally discount it: Word out of the Senior Bowl was that Detroit planned to host Willis with one of its last top-30 visits and was intrigued by his skill set. Both of those factors have proved true.

Most people in the league believe Detroit will go with a safer pick, but Willis could become a stronger option if Detroit can somehow find a way to trade back up with the No. 32 pick.

Pittsburgh's quarterback intentions have been all over the map (welcome to draft season). Some believe they like Willis, others say Kenny Pickett (Pitt) would be their guy, but the majority leans toward Pittsburgh going with a different "need" position at No. 20, such as defensive or offensive line or corner.

"I don't know, they've done a ton of work on the QBs," one NFC exec said. "Feels like they will take one."

Most people to whom I've spoken said the Liberty offense did Willis few favors, resulting in a lot of tuck-and-run plays if the first read wasn't there. 'The learning curve will be steep for him," the NFC exec said. "But the traits are impressive, and the arm strength is really good." -- Fowler

Where are the running backs?

There have been a total of four running backs selected in the first round over the past three drafts -- one in 2019, one in 2020 and two last year. The last time there was a first round without a running back was 2014, when Tennessee made Bishop Sankey the top back at pick No. 54. This year could be a repeat of 2014.

The most likely running back to sneak into the first round seems to be Iowa State's Breece Hall. The question is: Who would take him? Some believe he could be a luxury pick for the Bills (No. 25), who have one of the league's most complete rosters and no immediate needs to fill with their first-round pick. Devin Singletary finished the season strong, but Hall would give them an explosive playmaker at the position, one new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey could use in tandem with Singletary.

The Buccaneers (No. 27) would also be a threat to take a runner in the first round, though maybe not as much of a threat as if they hadn't re-signed Leonard Fournette.

Every team loves having depth at that position, so you can't rule out a team that already has a top back adding another (as Green Bay did in the second round two years ago with AJ Dillon), but first-round backs have become rare. -- Graziano

How many off-ball linebackers in Round 1?

Scouts love Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean. They just don't know where exactly he fits in this draft. He could go as high as No. 12 or as low as the top of Round 2.

"One of the best people I've ever scouted," an AFC scout said. "He will learn the playbook in two days. Minimal deficiencies."

Some teams peg him to a 4-3 defensive scheme due to his size (5-11, 229 pounds), which is why Philadelphia (No. 18) makes some sense. There's also buzz around New England (No. 21) potentially taking a linebacker.

"Small and slow doesn't help, but he's a baller," an AFC exec said. "Could see him fitting in New England because of the traits and the ability to run the show. Similar to Jerod Mayo from that standpoint."

Teams are all over the map on the top inside linebackers, opting for Dean or Utah's Devin Lloyd or even Dean's teammate, fast riser Quay Walker. -- Fowler

Fowler: Quick-hitter notes

• If the Panthers can successfully trade back from the No. 6 pick and gain more draft capital (they have no Day 2 picks), taking a quarterback later in Round 1 becomes more palatable. How the offensive tackle market shapes up in the top five picks could determine Carolina's choice. Ekwonu impressed during the process as Carolina did its homework on the top tackles.

• We've highlighted Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder's strong pre-draft process, and now it's time to do the same for another quarterback: North Carolina's Sam Howell. I've heard his name a lot in recent days, with several coaches saying his pre-draft interviews were impressive. He might not go in Round 1, but he should have a strong market on Day 2. Seattle (No. 40) is a realistic possibility. Carolina likes him, too, but again, it doesn't yet have any Day 2 picks.

• When asking teams about the top receivers, Drake London's name comes up often as a potential top-10 pick. The Falcons (No. 8) or Jets (No. 10) are among logical spots. "He was the best player on a bad team; the defense was designed to stop him and they still couldn't," an NFC exec said. Added an AFC scout: "He's Keenan Allen with more [run-after-catch] ability." But there's not much consensus on which receiver is the best in class. Alabama's Jameson Williams and Ohio State's Garrett Wilson have plenty of support there.

• The Skyy Moore connection with the Steelers is something to consider, and with Pittsburgh's penchant for taking receivers in the second round, Moore is one to watch there. The Western Michigan standout played with Mike Tomlin's son Dino at Shadyside Academy outside of Pittsburgh. Tomlin knows him well. The Steelers have the No. 52 pick, and Moore might not last that long. Jacksonville, which has the first pick of the second round, has done a lot of homework on him.

• These are names scouts are higher on than you might think: Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon, Oklahoma linebacker Brian Asamoah, Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert, Memphis receiver Calvin Austin III, Western Kentucky edge rusher DeAngelo Malone, Central Michigan OT Luke Goedeke, Virginia tight end Jelani Woods, Rutgers RB Isaih Pacheco, Miami (Ohio) edge rusher Dominique Robinson and Tennessee defensive back Theo Jackson.

• Washington hasn't been linked to draft-eligible quarterbacks much since trading for Carson Wentz before free agency. But the word heading into draft weekend is the Commanders have done a lot of research on Ole Miss' Matt Corral, researching his background from high school to college. Washington could be looking for quarterback help on Day 2 of the draft. The Saints and Panthers also have done much homework on Corral. Some coaches were underwhelmed with his presence in team interviews, but many are high on his quick release and natural throwing ability.

• Brown quarterback EJ Perry could slip into late Day 2 as a developmental option, according to multiple scouts. Talked to a coach who said he would probably need to sit a year to learn NFL systems, but he has ability.

• File this one away: The Jaguars did not show Evan Neal as much outward interest as many other teams in the top 10, and the player's camp noticed. If we're reading the tea leaves ... is Jacksonville playing a misdirection in case it potentially takes Neal? Maybe not, but I at least found that interesting.