There are plenty of rankings and scouting notes on the 2020 NFL draft class. But which players have the brightest professional futures based on underlying metrics?
Every year, Football Outsiders uses proprietary analysis to project the top prospects at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and pass-rusher. This year's class provides a number of cases in which the scouting reports don't match up with the production.
Jump ahead:
Quarterbacks | Running backs
Wide receivers | Pass-rushers
There's no risk in the NFL quite like the risk of drafting a quarterback. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn't going to climb back into playoff contention. Quarterbacks get drafted earlier than players who rank similarly at their respective positions. And while quarterbacks have more statistics measuring them than other players do, teams haven't been more accurate in drafting them. Just ask the Chicago Bears, who selected Mitchell Trubisky before Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes three years ago.
The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' quarterback-adjusted stats and experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. A total of 50,000 simulations produces a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.
You'll notice that every listed quarterback prospect has a chance to be elite, and every quarterback has a chance to be a bust. That reflects just how much we don't know about drafting quarterbacks, and the wide range of possible outcomes for each player.
QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success, according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt (adjusted for touchdowns and interceptions), and team passing efficiency (measured with Bill Connelly's passing SP+ stats). These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to be used only on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.
Skip ahead to a QB:
Burrow | Tagovailoa | Love
Herbert | Fromm | Eason
Hurts | Gordon
Overall, QBASE thinks this is a good year for moderately promising quarterback prospects. None of this year's quarterbacks comes close to the top projections in QBASE history, in part because no top quarterback prospect this year has four full seasons as a college starter.
However, this is the first year with three prospects with mean projections over 600 DYAR since 2012 (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson) and the first year with five prospects with mean projections over 400 DYAR since 2006. Then again, those five quarterbacks in 2006 were Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson -- once again demonstrating that projecting quarterbacks is very difficult.
Here are projections for eight quarterbacks who might go in the top 100 picks of the 2020 NFL draft.
Joe Burrow, LSU Tigers
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 2
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 759 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 42%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 18%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 13%
Joe Burrow's 2019 season was among the greatest in college football history. He set a record with 60 touchdown passes. His completion rate of 76.3% was the second highest ever. His 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked fourth. He did this against an above-average schedule in the SEC.
Burrow's forecast takes a small hit from playing alongside a very high amount of draftable talent, highlighted by likely first-round picks Justin Jefferson (this year) and Ja'Marr Chase (next year). But the experience variable is the main reason Burrow's QBASE projection is not higher. The system still identifies the risk that comes with drafting a quarterback with only two years of starting experience. Nonetheless, Burrow has the second-highest projection ever for a quarterback with less than three years of starting experience.
Top QBASE projections for one-year and two-year starters, from 1997 to 2020:
1. Alex Smith (2005): 798
2. Joe Burrow (2020): 759
3. Cam Newton (2011): 698
4. Tua Tagovailoa (2020): 653
5. Kyler Murray (2019): 595
6. JaMarcus Russell (2007): 570
7. Sam Bradford (2010): 545
8. Vince Young (2006): 536
9. Dwayne Haskins (2019): 527
10. Tim Couch (1999): 474
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama Crimson Tide
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 7
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 653 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 46%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 8%
As a sophomore, Tagovailoa had 12.8 adjusted passing yards per attempt, the third-highest number ever. As a junior, Tagovailoa had 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt before he injured his hip. That would be the highest number ever if Tagovailoa had not missed time and failed to qualify for College Football Reference's historical rankings. So the elements of QBASE based on past performance like Tagovailoa an awful lot.
On the other hand, QBASE has a variable to discount quarterbacks whose stats are helped by playing with a lot of draftable talent at the wide receiver and offensive line positions. And in the history of QBASE, which goes back to 1997, no quarterback played with more talent in his final college season than Tagovailoa in 2019.
Three different Alabama teammates are forecast to be top-20 picks in the upcoming draft: tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Two more of Tagovailoa's offensive teammates are likely to be top-10 picks in next year's draft: tackle Alex Leatherwood and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Receiver DeVonta Smith and guard Deonte Brown are also likely to be drafted in 2021. As a result, the projected draft value for Tagovailoa's teammates is over 60% higher than the previous quarterback who played with the most draftable talent, Danny Wuerffel in 1997.
(Burrow is also in the top five for teammate value, along with Johnny Manziel and Matt Leinart.)
Tagovailoa's schedule also wasn't as hard as you might expect for the SEC; due to his injury, he missed Auburn (fifth in SP+ defense) and the bowl game with Michigan (11th).
These elements drop Tagovailoa only a little bit, however. So he still has one of the all-time best QBASE projections for a quarterback with only two years of starting experience.
Jordan Love, Utah State Aggies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 57 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 64%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 23%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 10%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%
Scouts are high on Love's arm talent and smooth release, but his final year of college was quite unimpressive. Thanks in part to 17 interceptions with only 20 touchdowns, his already mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt number becomes 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Over the past decade, the only top-100 pick with a lower adjusted yards per attempt in his final college season was C.J. Beathard. Love had this poor performance against the easiest schedule of pass defenses faced by any of this year's top quarterback prospects.
But there's an asterisk here, which is that Love's performance declined dramatically between his sophomore and junior seasons. In 2018, Love had a far more impressive 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt, with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. If Love had come out a year ago, he would have had a higher projection (420 DYAR). Teams considering Love in this year's draft need to watch two years' worth of film and figure out what changed for him in 2019.
Justin Herbert, Oregon Ducks
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 23
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 689 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 43%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 11%
Herbert has started for two full seasons and two partial seasons at Oregon, so we counted him with three seasons for the purposes of QBASE. That gives him the second-best projection this year, ahead of Tagovailoa but still behind Burrow. Where Herbert takes a bit of a hit is that Oregon was only 36th in FBS in passing SP+ this season.
Jake Fromm, Georgia Bulldogs
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 57
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 439 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 15%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%
Fromm gets a boost in QBASE from three years of starting experience. Both his 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt and 61% completion rate last season are below the mean for top-100 picks over the past 20 years, but he played the hardest schedule among this year's top quarterback prospects. And like Love, Fromm declined in his final season, as he had a 67% completion rate and 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2018. Unlike Love, Fromm's QBASE projection would have been lower had he come out a year ago with less experience (208 DYAR).
Jacob Eason, Washington Huskies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 60
Mean projection in Years 3-5: -98 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 68%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 21%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 9%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%
Eason's 2019 season stats were close to the mean for top-100 quarterback prospects, but he put up those numbers against an easier-than-average schedule. Combine that with a lower expected draft position (end of the second round) and only two years of starting experience, and Eason does poorly in our QBASE projections.
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma Sooners
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 98
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 410 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 25%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 16%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%
The QBASE system likes Hurts even though he's projected to be a late third- or early fourth-round pick. He has three years of starting experience and had awesome statistics at Oklahoma in his senior season: 70% completion rate and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. That latter number is the sixth-highest qualifying AYPA number in FBS history. But when you look at the five players ahead of him, you sense the biggest question about Hurts. Those players include Baker Mayfield twice and Kyler Murray. Four of the top six APYA seasons ever come from Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense. How much of Hurts' performance is Hurts, and how much is the offense, especially considering the big jump in Hurts' stats from his two starting seasons at Alabama to last season at Oklahoma?
Anthony Gordon, Washington State Cougars
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 116
Mean projection in Years 3-5: -234 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 72%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 20%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 7%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 1%
It's hard to put too much faith in Gordon considering that his only season as a starter came as a redshirt senior. Even Gordon's good-looking stats aren't as impressive as they might seem at first glance. He was second in FBS with 5,579 passing yards and fourth with 48 touchdowns, but those stats were partially the product of ranking first in pass attempts in Mike Leach's pass-friendly Washington State offense. Gordon was also helped by an easier schedule in the offense-friendly Pac-12. His 8.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked only sixth in the conference.
Projecting the 2020 NFL draft's top running backs
D'Andre Swift was a feature back in a crowded backfield at Georgia.
Two years ago, Saquon Barkley was universally considered the best running back prospect to enter the NFL draft in years. Football Outsiders' metric for projecting the likelihood of success for running backs, BackCAST, agreed: It gave Barkley the second-highest projection of all time.
This year, no prospect has come close to matching the hype of Barkley. BackCAST, however, thinks there is one prospect who should be similarly hyped. In fact, BackCAST rates this prospect more highly than Barkley, or anyone else for that matter, as he has the highest BackCAST projection ever.
BackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, gained a high average yards per carry, and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level.
BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years. For example, a running back with a +50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the average drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each running back is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a ground-and-pound back.
What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2020 NFL draft.
Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin Badgers
BackCAST score: +196.9%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Saquon Barkley, LaDainian Tomlinson
Taylor excels at every metric that BackCAST measures. First, the obvious: Taylor is big and fast. Taylor is a big back at 226 pounds and somehow managed to run the 40-yard dash in a blistering 4.39 seconds. Taylor's performance at the combine is roughly equivalent to that of Barkley, who ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at 233 pounds.
Where Taylor edges Barkley is in the production department. Like Barkley, Taylor grabbed a stranglehold on his team's backfield and never looked back. While Taylor was in the lineup, Wisconsin fed over 50% of its carries to him. Barkley also soaked up a large number of Penn State's carries, although not quite to the extent that Taylor did at Wisconsin. However, where Taylor really beats Barkley is in yards per attempt. The weak point of Barkley's projection was that he averaged "only" 5.7 yards per attempt in college. Taylor averaged nearly 6.7 yards per carry. It's rare for a prospect to produce so much on a per-play basis while carrying a workload like Taylor's, and no prospect in BackCAST's database has done it as well as Taylor. It's an incredible feat.
Some might hesitate on Taylor because of the draft history of Wisconsin running backs. Ron Dayne, for example (whom BackCAST missed on), was a failure despite big numbers at Wisconsin. It's questionable whether NFL decision-makers should put much weight on the failure of a running back who was drafted two decades ago. For what it's worth, Dayne was a highly unusual prospect. He was 259 pounds and was not fast in an absolute sense (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.65 seconds). Taylor is a much more conventional prospect in terms of size.
Of course, the best reason to doubt Taylor's prospects is that he is simply not rated as a top prospect by the draftnik community. Scouts Inc., for example, has Taylor rated as a late first-round or early second-round pick. BackCAST is not the be-all-end-all of running back evaluation, and it's absolutely legitimate to question whether the scouts might have picked up problems with Taylor's game not identified by Taylor's combine measurables and college production. However, the possibility that the numbers might be right about Taylor makes him an intriguing option for any team that could use an upgrade at running back.
AJ Dillon, Boston College Eagles
BackCAST score: +111.4%
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Steven Jackson, LenDale White
Dillon could be the perfect fit for a team that is looking for a bargain-basement running back pick with upside. Like Taylor, Dillon has a good size-speed combination -- his 4.53-second 40-yard time is impressive given his 247-pound size. Dillon also consistently dominated his backfield at Boston College, although not to quite the extent that Taylor dominated Wisconsin's.
Dillon's only "bad" metric is his (for a drafted running back) low 5.2 yards per attempt. It would have been better if Dillon had been more productive on a per-play basis, but there is also precedent for running backs with lower yards per attempt finding success in the NFL. Steven Jackson, for example, averaged only 4.9 yards per attempt and had a strong BackCAST projection and a good career in the NFL.
Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins loves the challenge of being hit and not being the one to fall.
J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State Buckeyes
BackCAST score: +67.5%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Le'Veon Bell, Rashard Mendenhall
Dobbins scores well for his workload in the Ohio State backfield, and he also recorded a strong 6.2 yards per attempt. Dobbins loses some points, however, for not being quite as impressive as his draftmates in the size-speed category. Dobbins is not a huge back at 209 pounds, but his size-speed is a complete mystery because he did not run at the combine and Ohio State canceled its pro day.
D'Andre Swift, Georgia Bulldogs
BackCAST score: +53.7%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Larry Johnson, Felix Jones
At least before the combine, Swift was widely recognized as the top running back available in the draft. BackCAST, however, rates Swift as only the fourth-best back available.
Nonetheless, Swift's projection is not horrible. The average first-round pick has a BackCAST score of approximately +67%, so Swift is just a bit off where he should be, given his likely draft position.
BackCAST's biggest knock on Swift is his workload in college. Swift had a lighter workload than the average drafted running back. To be fair, Swift had to compete with NFL talents Nick Chubb and Sony Michel as a freshman. As a sophomore, however, Swift split carries almost 50-50 with Elijah Holyfield, who went undrafted and has yet to record an NFL carry. Swift did record over 40% of his team's carries as a junior, but that only gets him up to about average for a drafted running back.
It could be that his coaches did not recognize his talent and failed to give him as many carries as they should have. (This has happened before, most notably with Alvin Kamara.) Indeed, Swift had an excellent 6.6 yards per carry, which is one piece of evidence that he might be better than his college workload suggests. However, it's equally possible that Swift had an average workload because he is not a special talent.
Swift's combine also did not move the needle. He is a bit lighter and somewhat faster than the average drafted running back.
Swift could very well be a successful running back, but the price for him is a bit high, given the low value of the running back position and his uncertain projection.
Cam Akers, Florida State Seminoles
BackCAST score: +51.7%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Jay Ajayi, Anthony Thomas
Akers has a similar projection to Swift, and the two are like opposite sides of the same coin. Unlike Swift, Akers had a heavy workload in college, recording a significantly larger slice of his backfield's carries than the average drafted running back. However, while Swift was super productive on a per-play basis, Akers was not. Akers averaged only 4.9 yards per carry. Swift and Akers had similar combines as well. Akers is five pounds heavier and ran the 40-yard dash a hundredth of a second faster.
Akers, however, might be a better value prospect than Swift. A +50% prospect might not present value in the first round but is definitely a value pick in the fourth round.
Anthony McFarland Jr., Maryland Terrapins
BackCAST score: +39.1%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Clinton Portis, Chris Brown
McFarland is a solid if unspectacular prospect. He soaked up carries at a slightly higher rate than the average drafted running back, averaging roughly a half-yard per carry more than the average drafted running back, and he ran a fast 4.44-second 40-yard dash but was a little light at 208 pounds. McFarland would be a grossly overrated prospect as a first-round pick, but he is clearly not -- he's likely to go somewhere in the late third or early fourth where he could be a great value play.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU Tigers
BackCAST score: -36.1%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael
Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete nonfactor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore.
Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per-play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.
However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof.
Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the 10 lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds who recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing. For example, the complete list of running backs drafted since 1998 who ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at less than 210 pounds is Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizable impact in the NFL.
A second-round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is if there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success.
Projecting the 2020 NFL draft's top wide receivers
Oklahoma wideout CeeDee Lamb can play both slot and outside and is considered one of the most evasive offensive players in the 2020 NFL draft.
The 2020 NFL draft's wide receiver class has been widely hailed as perhaps the best class in over a decade.
However, aside from the sheer number of first-round prospects, there may not be anything particularly special about this year's wide receivers. Playmaker score, which is Football Outsiders' statistical system for projecting college wide receivers to the next level, has two prospects it really likes but believes the rest of the first-round prospects available are average when compared to first-round wide receivers from past drafts.
Note: Players are listed in order of their projected average receiving yardage.
Below, we take a look at some of playmaker's top prospects in this year's draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts. Our similar historical prospects are based on former players who were similar in their playmaker statistics, so you might see us compare two physically dissimilar players because they were similar statistically. Read more on our methodology here.
1. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma Sooners
Projected yards/season, first five years: 691
Scouts Inc.: No. 7 overall
Similar historical prospects: Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper
For the second consecutive year, an Oklahoma Sooner holds the playmaker projection top spot (Marquise Brown held the distinction last year). Lamb recorded 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior in 2019. Moreover, contrary to Oklahoma's reputation from past years as a "pass-happy" team, the Sooners attempted only 381 passes last season. As a result, Lamb has the best touchdowns per team attempt and yards per team attempt of any underclassman wide receiver in this class. In short, Lamb, like many successful NFL wide receivers before him, was the focal point of his college's passing offense.
Another positive sign for Lamb is that his coaches involved him in the running game as well. Lamb had nine rushes in his career -- all last season. That may not seem like many, but any carries at all are a good indicator of whether the wide receiver's coaches thought the player was a special talent who should have the ball in his hands.
Although not necessarily a knock on Lamb, it's worth noting that no other Oklahoma wide receiver prospect was invited to the combine this year, so Lamb does not get any adjustment for playing alongside talented teammates. It's true that Lamb had to fight Brown for pass attempts as a sophomore, but playmaker uses only the receiving numbers from the wide receiver prospect's best season. For Lamb, that was his junior year, after Brown was long gone and catching passes for the Baltimore Ravens.
However, like all draft prospects, Lamb is not a lock to succeed. Lamb had excellent production, but it was not quite to the superhuman level that the very best historical prospects -- such as Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald -- reached in college. Still, the numbers think Lamb is well worth his high projected draft position.
2. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected yards/season, first five years: 668
Scouts Inc.: No. 3 overall
Similar historical prospects: Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne
Jeudy was a reasonably productive wide receiver in college, but his numbers are much more impressive in the context of the absurd amount of receiving talent on the Crimson Tide. In 2020, Jeudy had to compete for passes with Henry Ruggs III, who is also projected as a first-round pick. Amazingly, neither Jeudy nor Ruggs was the receiving yards leader on his own team. DeVonta Smith outgained both of them but declined to enter the 2020 NFL draft and is returning to Alabama for his senior season. The 2019 Alabama Crimson Tide might have had the most receiving talent since the 2000 Miami Hurricanes, which sent Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and (one year later) tight end Jeremy Shockey to the first round (future star Andre Johnson was on the bench).
Playmaker does not give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith, but it gives him a sizable boost for playing with Ruggs. You could argue that it should give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith as well, but historically no adjustment is necessary for players who have to compete with a potential future draftee for passes. Overall, playmaker projects Jeudy to be slightly more productive than the average first-round wide receiver.
3. Justin Jefferson, LSU Tigers
Projected yards/season, first five years: 599
Scouts Inc.: No. 16 overall
Similar historical prospects: Roy Williams, Michael Crabtree
If you read only Jefferson's stat line at LSU, you might think he was far and away the best wide receiver in this year's draft. Jefferson caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, LSU passed the ball 569 times in 2019. After adjusting Jefferson's numbers on a per-play basis, he falls behind both Lamb and Jeudy. His numbers are still good, of course, and they put his projection about 30 yards per season ahead of the average wide receiver drafted in the first round.
Moreover, Jefferson did have to compete with Biletnikoff Award winner Ja'Marr Chase for passes. Chase is not in this year's draft. He's not eligible until 2021, so Jefferson does not get a bump for competing with a talented teammate. However, even if Chase were able to enter this year's draft and was projected as a first-round pick, Jefferson would still fall just short of Jeudy's projection.
4. Henry Ruggs III, Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected yards/season, first five years: 567
Scouts Inc.: No. 11 overall
Similar historical prospects: Laveranues Coles, Travis Taylor
There is an appealing theory supporting Ruggs' success. Ruggs played in one of the most talented receiving corps in college football history and might have dominated on a team with less competition for passes. Ruggs also flashed big-play greatness, averaging 18.7 yards per catch.
However, the counterfactual is that a mid-first-round pick is a high price to pay for a wide receiver who never had more than 746 receiving yards in a single season. As a junior, Ruggs averaged less than 2.0 yards per team attempt. The most successful wide receiver in playmaker's data set to average less than 2.0 yards per team attempt in his best college season is Coles. Coles is actually a fairly good comp for Ruggs because Coles had to compete with other highly drafted wide receivers (namely, Peter Warrick and Ron Dugans) during his senior year at Florida State.
However, after Coles, the record of wide receivers with less than 2.0 yards per team attempt is not good. The second best is Kenny Stills, and it goes downhill from there. Only two wide receivers since 1996 have been drafted in the first round and averaged less than 2.0 yards per attempt: Cordarrelle Patterson and Travis Taylor. Neither made much of an impact in the NFL. (Well, Patterson made an impact as a return man, but not really as a wide receiver.)
Ruggs' potential upside is intriguing, and his unique situation makes it easy to explain away his low production. Those explanations might ultimately prove to be right. However, playmaker is concerned that Ruggs' production might be too low, even after accounting for the intense competition for passes in Alabama's offense. Overall, playmaker sees Ruggs as a prospect who belongs in the middle of the first round rather than near the top.
5. Jalen Reagor, TCU Horned Frogs
Projected yards/season, first five years: 566
Scouts Inc.: No. 20 overall
Similar historical prospects: Koren Robinson, Chad Jackson
Reagor's production was better than Ruggs', but Reagor had much less competition for passes in the TCU offense. Other than Reagor, the most productive wide receiver on TCU was Taye Barber with 372 yards -- a far cry from the dominant wideouts who played with Ruggs at Alabama. Reagor gets a boost because he was heavily involved in the Horned Frogs' rushing offense (he averaged one rushing attempt per game) and because he entered the draft as an underclassman.
6. Tee Higgins, Clemson Tigers
Projected yards/season, first five years: 552
Scouts Inc.: No. 23 overall
Similar historical prospects: Torrey Smith, Reggie Williams
Higgins has the same issue as Jefferson: His raw numbers look good but are less impressive when adjusted on a per-play basis. Higgins had 1,167 receiving yards and caught 13 touchdown passes as a junior. However, Clemson attempted 509 passes, which brings Higgins' rate stats a bit lower than you would like for a first-round pick.
Potential sleeper
7. Tyler Johnson, Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected yards/season, first five years: 303
Scouts Inc.: No. 182 overall
Similar historical prospects: Deion Branch, Justin McCareins
The most productive receiver in this draft class is not Lamb or Jeudy. It's Johnson. As a senior, Johnson recorded 1,318 yards with 13 touchdowns. However, his numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Minnesota attempted only 323 passes in 2019, resulting in an outstanding 4.08 receiving yards per team attempt.
To put Johnson's yardage numbers in perspective, only 18 drafted FBS/Division I-A wide receivers hit 4.0 yards per team attempt or higher in their college careers and most of them were ultimately first- and second-round picks. The most lowly drafted of the group to date is McCareins, who was drafted in the fourth round and significantly outperformed his draft projection. Although playmaker significantly downgrades Johnson's prospects because he enters the draft as a senior, his outstanding production more than suffices to overcome his upperclassman status.
Johnson fits the profile of a wide receiver who could succeed despite a relatively humble draft position. The typical profile of a successful late-round wide receiver is not a raw height-weight-speed player with little production. It's a productive college wide receiver who scouts maybe second-guessed a little too much. Johnson fits the latter description to a T.
That humble draft projection is, of course, the real damper on Johnson's playmaker score -- Scouts Inc. projects him as worthy of a pick near the very top of the sixth round. Although there are many famous examples of fifth- and sixth-rounders who become stars, the vast majority of these players either have very short careers or never make it out of training camp. So will Johnson buck the trend and be a star? Probably not. However, his chances are considerably better than most fifth- and sixth-round picks. Even accounting for Johnson's projected draft position, playmaker thinks Johnson has more than twice the chance of succeeding as a typical fifth- or sixth-round wide receiver -- or roughly the same chance of succeeding as a typical wide receiver drafted in the third round.
Methodology
Playmaker score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996 to 2017, and measures the following:
The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the draft projections from Scouts Inc.
The wide receiver prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e., a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a 2.5)
The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt
The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season)
A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility
The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt
A factor that gives a bonus to wide receivers who played for the same college team, entered the draft in the same year and are projected to be drafted.
Those of you familiar with playmaker score might notice that we have changed the factors a bit this year. First, we have added a factor for "talented wide receiver teammates" for the first time. Historically, playmaker score has underrated those wide receivers who had fewer yards and touchdowns because they split passes with one or more other talented wide receivers. The new metric fixes that problem. Second, we have eliminated the vertical jump and the yards per reception metric from the model. These two metrics were never especially strong predictors of performance and their predictive value has faded considerably in recent drafts.
Playmaker's primary output projects the average number of regular-season receiving yards that the wide receiver will gain per year over the course of his first five NFL seasons.
Projecting the top edge rushers in the 2020 NFL draft
Chase Young enjoyed a dominant college football career and looks primed to join the list of Ohio State D-linemen to star in the NFL.
Edge rush prospects often grab pre-draft headlines for incredible athletic feats of size and speed. Whether it was Jadeveon Clowney's 4.53-second 40-yard dash, Vernon Gholston's 37 reps on the bench press or Mike Mamula's all-around great combine performance, edge rushers are typically the players who astound us with how well a 260-pound human being can run, jump and perform feats of strength.
This year, however is different. Although the NFL combine proceeded as usual, the coronavirus pandemic resulted in the cancellation of all but the earliest college pro days. This lack of full workouts -- combined with the tendency for top draft prospects to wait to run the 40-yard dash until their pro days -- creates a unique situation at the top of the draft. Of Scouts Inc.'s top 10 edge rush prospects, only three have a recorded 40-yard dash from the NFL combine or a college pro day.
This lack of information also poses a unique challenge for Football Outsiders' system for projecting college edge rushers, SackSEER. SackSEER uses pre-draft workout data, along with college statistics, to project the NFL pass-rushing prospects of defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers. However, strangely enough, even without the typical level of pre-draft workout numbers available, SackSEER believes that the edge rush picture is relatively clear: One player stands out among what is otherwise a fairly average group.
For more detail on how SackSEER works, read more on the methodology here. What follows is a ranking of the top edge rush prospects for 2020 according to our model:
Chase Young, Ohio State Buckeyes
SackSEER Projection through five seasons: 30.7 sacks
Scouts Inc.: No. 1 overall
Similar historical prospects: Myles Garrett, Dwight Freeney
Most, if not all, pre-draft prognosticators put Chase Young at the top of the edge rushers available in this year's draft, and SackSEER agrees. Young has the strongest projection in this year's class by far, leading the runner-up by more than seven sacks.
Young was consistently productive at Ohio State. He had 3.5 sacks as a freshman, 10.5 as a sophomore, and 16.5 as a junior. According to SackSEER's numbers, that places Young as the sixth-most productive drafted edge rusher since 1998, right in between Jared Allen and Freeney. Although not quite as excellent, Young also had good passes defensed numbers. Young defensed eight passes for Ohio State, resulting in a rate of about 0.24 passes defensed per game. His rate is not quite at the level put up by the very best at the metric -- Julius Peppers and Allen both averaged more than a half-pass defensed per game -- but it is still well above the drafted edge rusher average of 0.14 passes defensed per game.
The biggest questions about Young's prospects come from Young's completely missing pre-draft workouts. Not only did Young skip the 40-yard dash at the combine, he also skipped the vertical leap, the broad jump, the short shuttle and the 3-cone drill. What we did this year was estimate Young's likely combine performance based on his projected draft position. From 1998 to 2018, there have been 11 edge rushers selected in the top three picks. Those players averaged 4.64 seconds in the 40-yard dash, a 36-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-2 broad jump, so that is what we plugged in for Young.
Young's lead over the rest of the edge rushers available in the NFL draft is so robust that it almost does not matter what assumptions we use to project his combine performance. Indeed, even if Young had run a slow 4.80-second 40-yard dash, he would still be the No. 1 edge rush prospect.
Young is a great prospect who is almost certainly going to be gone after the third pick in the draft and probably will not escape the top two. Unfortunately for the majority of teams that need an edge rusher, the pass-rushing options after Young in this draft are relatively limited.
Check out some highlights of former Iowa defensive lineman A.J. Epenesa as he heads into the 2020 NFL draft.
A.J. Epenesa, Iowa Hawkeyes
SackSEER projection through five seasons: 23.5 sacks
Scouts Inc.: No. 24 overall
Similar historical prospects: Darren Howard, Cameron Jordan
Weighing in at 275 pounds, Epenesa could play defensive end in a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme. SackSEER does not apply to 3-4 defensive ends, but it can provide a projection for what Epenesa's sack total could be like if a 4-3 team selects him.
Epenesa is one of the most productive edge rushers available in this draft. He recorded 26.5 sacks in just three years at Iowa. Epenesa also recorded seven passes defensed, which gives him an above-average passes defensed rate.
The problem with Epenesa's projection is his workout numbers. Unlike many of the edge rush prospects available, Epenesa did a full workout at the combine, but the results were not good. Epenesa ran a slow 40-yard dash at 5.04 seconds and recorded a below-average 32.5-inch vertical jump. His 7.31-second 3-cone drill time was also below average. The 40-yard dash time is particularly poor. Only 30 edge rushers drafted from 1998 to 2018 have run a 40-yard dash of 4.95 seconds or worse, and only Howard recorded over 20 sacks in his first five seasons in the NFL (although current Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard will likely be a second). Howard, however, was quite good, and he shows that Epenesa has a path to success despite his below-average combine numbers.
Check out the highlights that show off former LSU DE K'Lavon Chaisson's good bend and burst off the edge.
K'Lavon Chaisson, LSU Tigers
SackSEER projection through five seasons: 18.5 sacks
Scouts Inc.: No. 22 overall
Similar historical prospects: Melvin Ingram, Jerome McDougle
Chaisson is perhaps the most mysterious edge rusher available in this year's draft. Most edge rushers are not particularly productive as freshmen, so their most instructive years are typically their sophomore, junior and senior years. Chaisson missed all but one game of his sophomore season due to injury, had 6.5 sacks in 13 games the following year, and then entered the draft. In that regard, SackSEER has only one real season of production from Chaisson, and it was inconclusive. Six-plus sacks in 13 games could be an indication that Chaisson is ready to break out, or it could be an indication that Chaisson is a good college player but does not have the talent to stand out in the NFL.
It would have been interesting to see if Chaisson had the athleticism to shine at the combine, which would be some evidence that his 6.5-sack season was just the beginning of what he could do rather than the limit. Scouts have given Chaisson high marks for athleticism, and it is entirely possible that Chaisson would have recorded excellent workout numbers that would have made up for the weaknesses in his projection. However, Chaisson chose not to do any of the agility drills at the combine and LSU's pro day was canceled, so SackSEER has no numbers. Instead, SackSEER assumes that Chaisson would have performed as well as players drafted in the second half of the first round.
Overall, Chaisson certainly has a chance to succeed in the NFL, but he has more unknowns than the typical first-round pick at the position -- and his knowns are not particularly spectacular. A smart team should scrutinize his limited game tape very closely before selecting him in the first round.
Take a look at some highlights of former Penn State DE Yetur Gross-Matos as he tackles his way to becoming a powerful NFL draft prospect.
Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State Nittany Lions
SackSEER projection through five seasons: 18 sacks
Scouts Inc.: No. 34 overall
Similar historical prospects: Whitney Mercilus, Shane Ray
Gross-Matos was a productive edge rusher for the Nittany Lions, recording 18.5 sacks in three seasons. Although he did not run the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, he did perform the jumps -- recording a 34-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot broad jump. SackSEER can use these numbers to estimate Gross-Matos' 40-yard dash time because performance on the jumps has, historically, correlated with 40-yard dash performance. SackSEER estimates that Gross-Matos would have run the 40-yard dash in 4.71 seconds. Together with his jumps, this estimated 40-yard dash time works out to an above-average combine performance.
Gross-Matos has some drawbacks as well. Most importantly, he did not record a single pass defensed in his college career. That may seem like a silly reason to downgrade Gross-Matos, but pass defensed rate has been an important predictor of stars and busts.
If it were not for his lower projected draft position, SackSEER would rate Gross-Matos more favorably than Chaisson.
Curtis Weaver, Boise State Broncos
SackSEER projection through five seasons: 17.9 sacks
Scouts Inc.: No. 76 overall
Similar historical prospects: Robert Mathis, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
Weaver is SackSEER's pick for the most underrated edge rusher in this year's draft. Indeed, even taking into account -- as SackSEER does -- that Chaisson probably will be a first-round pick and that Weaver probably will be only a third-round pick, SackSEER still thinks the two have very similar chances of NFL success.
SackSEER likes Weaver's production. Weaver recorded an eye-popping 34 sacks in just three seasons with the Broncos. He also intercepted two passes and knocked down six others, giving him an above-average passes defensed rate.
Weaver's weakness is his combine performance. Weaver did not run the 40-yard dash, but he did perform the jumps -- recording a 32.5-inch vertical leap and a 9-foot-8 broad jump. Those are slightly below average "explosion" numbers for a drafted edge rusher. However, Weaver did make up for his mediocre explosion by recording a 7-second 3-cone time, which is above average.
Certainly, a player who puts up big numbers at an FCS school should not be taken as seriously as a player who puts up the same numbers at Florida State, but the difference between a program like Boise State and a program like Clemson has not been significant historically. NFL decision-makers have generally not spent high picks on edge rushers from a smaller program unless they have outstanding workouts. This is often a mistake, because there are plenty of examples of highly productive players from small programs who excelled in the NFL despite average workouts, such as Mathis and Gbaja-Biamila.
Aside from Weaver, there are not many other intriguing edge rush prospects in the third round or later. Accordingly, if he is on the board in the third round, a team in need of a stronger pass rush should strongly consider him.
Zack Baun, Wisconsin Badgers
SackSEER projection through five seasons: 12.6 sacks
Scouts Inc.: No. 37 overall
Similar historical prospects: Kyle Van Noy, O'Brien Schofield
The player who SackSEER thinks is most likely to bust is Wisconsin linebacker Baun. First, he has an injury history. Baun missed his entire sophomore season to injury. Moreover, Baun is unusually light for an edge rusher at 238 pounds. Although several light college edge rushers have succeeded, they usually make up for the difference with great athleticism or production. Baun, however, exceeds at neither.
Baun ran a fast 40-yard dash at 4.65 seconds, but he had a below-average vertical (32.5 inches) and broad jump (9-7). These numbers would be fine for a player 20 pounds heavier, but a player at Baun's weight should be putting up numbers well above average.
Baun's production was not horrible, but it was not fantastic either. He had a nice redshirt senior season, posting 12.5 sacks in 14 games. However, that was Baun's only productive season from a pass-rushing perspective. Baun recorded zero sacks as a redshirt freshman and only 2.5 sacks in 13 games as redshirt sophomore. His passes defensed were a tick above average, however.
In sum, Baun's projection is basically a death by a thousand cuts. Nothing about his projection looks horrible, but nothing is great either, and he needed some good marks to overcome his injury history and lack of weight. Indeed, it is difficult to find a player with a similar profile who has had success in the NFL. Clay Matthews and Trent Cole had similar weight and production in college, but they both had well-above-average workouts. Mathis and Gbaja-Biamila had similar workout numbers, but both had superb production. Of course, Baun could forge new territory, overcome this history and be the first successful edge rusher to fit his particular profile. However, a late first-round pick or a high second-round pick is a high price for a team to pay to make that bet.
Methodology
SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2017 and measures the following:
The edge rusher's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from Scouts Inc.
An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts
The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill
A metric called "SRAM," which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college
The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played
The number of medical redshirts the player either received or for which he was eligible