The 2014 NFL draft might turn out to be one of the deepest wide receiver drafts in history. In addition to boasting top-end talent such as Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans, the 2014 draft produced a small army of pass-catchers who, at least at one point or another, have made significant contributions to their teams, such as Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Davante Adams and Martavis Bryant.
Although the 2017 draft might lack elite wide receivers such as Beckham and Evans, it might turn out to have even more depth than the much ballyhooed 2014 class. According to Playmaker Score, Football Outsiders' system for projecting college wide receivers to the professional level, there is plenty of wide receiver talent available this year, even in the mid-to-late rounds.
For an explanation of how Playmaker Score works, check out the full detail at the bottom of the article.
What follows is a ranking of the top 10 receiver prospects for 2017 according to our model, including a projection for the average number of regular-season receiving yards that each wide receiver will gain per season in his first five NFL years:
1. John Ross, Washington: 694 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 17 overall
Similar historical prospects: Terry Glenn, Percy Harvin
Ross made his mark on NFL draft coverage by running a record 4.22-second 40-yard dash, but the hoopla around his combine performance shouldn't detract from his strong career for the Huskies. Ross scored a touchdown on more than 4 percent of all of the Huskies' pass attempts in 2016. He was also somewhat involved in the running game, averaging approximately one rushing attempt every two games, which further boosts his projection. Ross is a bit of a "one-hit wonder" because he had less than 600 career receiving yards before exploding with 1,150 yards as a junior. However, there is a long history of successful NFL wide receivers, such as Glenn or Brandon Marshall, who did even less than Ross early in their college careers before breaking out as juniors.
2. Corey Davis, Western Michigan: 669 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 10 overall
Similar historical prospects: Torry Holt, Roddy White
Playmaker Score includes a significant penalty for players who enter the draft as seniors, because underclassmen typically enjoy much more success than their more experienced counterparts. That Davis is Playmaker Score's second-highest wide receiver despite this penalty speaks to how dominant he was for Western Michigan. He caught a touchdown on more than 5 percent of his team's passes as a senior. Only seven of the 500-plus wide receivers drafted since 1996 can say the same: Randy Moss, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Glenn, Holt, Andre' Davis and Corey Coleman.
3. Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech: 579 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 65 overall
Similar historical prospects: Steve Smith, Lee Evans
Henderson's draft stock seems to be rising in recent weeks, and for good reason. He scores reasonably well in all of Playmaker Score's metrics -- he caught plenty of touchdowns, gained plenty of yards, entered the draft as an underclassman and even contributed to the running game. However, Henderson's strongest metric is his explosive 19.6 yards per catch. He is a potential steal in the second round.
4. Curtis Samuel, Ohio State: 565 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 48 overall
Similar historical prospects: Tavon Austin, Randall Cobb
Samuel is a somewhat unusual prospect whose relatively positive projection comes exclusively from his use in the running game. He had 74 rushing attempts as a junior, making him one of the most "run-heavy" wide receivers that Playmaker Score has ever evaluated (topped only by running back-turned-wide receiver Dexter McCluster). Intuitively, one might think that these college "gadget" players would struggle to perform as conventional receivers at the NFL level, but prospects similar to Samuel have enjoyed moderate success. The top four wide receivers in Playmaker Score's rushing attempt metric are McCluster, Austin, Harvin and Cobb. Austin and Harvin might have been overdrafts in the first round, but all four of these players have been considerably more successful than the average drafted wide receiver. It would not be shocking if Samuel turned out to be the best of the bunch.
5. Mike Williams, Clemson: 514 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 13 overall
Similar historical prospects: Keyshawn Johnson, Laquon Treadwell
Although Playmaker Score generally likes the 2017 draft class, it is a bit down on Williams, whom many draftniks consider to be the top receiver available. Williams simply does not stand out relative to any of Playmaker Score's metrics. Typically, larger wide receivers like Williams boost their Playmaker Scores by catching touchdown after touchdown, but in 2016 Williams had only 11 touchdown catches despite Clemson's fairly pass-happy offense. Moreover, Williams did not have a single rushing attempt during his career, and his yards per catch numbers were just average.
He is still an above-average prospect. Williams' problem, however, is that a wide receiver drafted in the first round typically scores in the top 20 percent of Playmaker Score before it adjusts for draft position. Williams, by contrast, barely scores in the top 30 percent. Although that might not sound like a large difference, it is significant in a draft as strong at wide receiver as this one, where solid prospects can be had in the second round with several better risk-reward propositions in the mid-to-late rounds.
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC: 425 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 46 overall
Similar historical prospects: Greg Jennings, Donte Moncrief
Smith-Schuster declared he "is the top receiver in this class." Playmaker Score, along with most draftniks, believes that to be an overstatement, but Smith-Schuster could nevertheless be a good addition in the third round. Smith-Schuster had a nice sophomore season in 2015, catching 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns, which is all the more impressive considering he broke his hand halfway through the season.
7. Jalen Robinette, Air Force: 409 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 264 overall
Similar historical prospects: Sammie Coates, Stephen Hill
Robinette has a great projection, especially considering that he fails to crack Scouts Inc.'s top 250 players. Robinette's 959 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2016 might not be impressive in absolute terms, but he had monster rate statistics (which is what Playmaker looks at), because Air Force attempted only 150 passes in the 2016 season. As a result, Robinette averaged 6.39 yards per team attempt. To put that in number in perspective, no other wide receiver in this draft class averages as much as 4 yards per team attempt.
However, there is good reason to trust the scouts over the numbers when it comes to Robinette. For one, there have been a few recent receivers who have fit Robinette's statistical profile -- great per-attempt receiving statistics in an unusually run-heavy offense -- and Playmaker Score was too optimistic regarding many of them. Playmaker Score loved Hill, for example, and he turned out to be a bust. On the other hand, Demaryius Thomas similarly had great rate statistics but average absolute statistics, and he became an NFL star.
Unlike Thomas, however, Robinette is not graded as a first-round pick, but as a late-round afterthought, so it seems more likely than not that Robinette will significantly underperform his Playmaker Score projection. That said, a team sitting in the seventh round would not be crazy to spend a late pick on Robinette on the chance that Playmaker Score's numbers are actually right about him.
8. Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky: 407 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 76 overall
Similar historical prospects: Bobby Engram, Kevin Johnson
One of Playmaker Score's lessons is that receivers from non-powerhouse schools are often underrated. In that regard, Taylor could be a pleasant surprise for some team looking for a receiver in the third round. Taylor's yards per team attempt and yards per reception are among the best in this class, his touchdown rate is above average, and he even added a few rushing attempts to give his projection a boost. Playmaker downgrades him considerably because he came out of college as a senior, but that should be less concerning for a player from Conference USA, because senior success stories are more likely to come from lower-profile programs.
9. Chris Godwin, Penn State: 393 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 86 overall
Similar historical prospects: Mike Wallace, Donte' Stallworth
Godwin has one distinct advantage over many of the other receiver prospects likely to be available in the fourth round: He enters the draft as an underclassman. Although Godwin's numbers are not particularly impressive without context -- 982 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns in 2016 -- he is only a junior. Plenty of wide receivers, including comps Wallace and Stallworth, were good but not great as juniors, entered the draft and blossomed once they reached the NFL.
10. Zay Jones, East Carolina: 371 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 35 overall
Similar historical prospects: Ryan Broyles, Aundrae Allison
According to Playmaker Score, Jones is the most overrated wide receiver prospect in this class. Jones' weakest point is a low average of 10.7 yards per reception for his career. Possession receivers in college tend not to succeed in the NFL, even as possession receivers.
College wide receivers with lower yards-per-reception numbers have succeeded in the NFL, but they tend to be the "gadget" wide receivers who are heavily involved in the running game. Jones had only four rushing attempts in 2016, which is not an unusually low level for a pro prospect, but certainly well below where he would need to be to make up ground for his low yards per reception.
Jones also did not find the end zone much for a top wide receiver prospect. He caught only eight touchdowns as a senior even though his team attempted an above-average 554 passes.
How Playmaker Score works
Playmaker Score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the FBS wide receivers drafted from 1996 to 2014, and measures the following:
The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts Inc.
The wide receiver prospect's "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (for example, a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a 2.5).
The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt.
The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply zero for a player whose peak season was his most recent season).
The wide receiver's vertical jump from pre-draft workouts.
A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility.
The wide receiver's college career yards per reception.
The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.