During his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells came up with a list of seven criteria he used when grading quarterbacks in an upcoming NFL draft.
1. Be a three-year starter
2. Be a senior in college
3. Graduate from college
4. Start 30 games
5. Win 23 games
6. Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
7. Tally a completion rate of 60 percent or higher
There can be reasonable disagreements about how these rules are applied, but the central theme behind them is important. They aim to help teams identify durable, accurate and self-motivated passers who will finish what they start and who can convert drives into touchdowns while avoiding mistakes.
It's rare for a first-round caliber quarterback to meet all of these rule requirements. In the BCS/Power 5 era (which includes the 1999 through 2015 NFL drafts), only 10 have successfully done this. They are, in alphabetical order: Drew Brees, Robert Griffin III, Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Parcells himself indicated that Teddy Bridgewater could also be included on the list despite leaving college as a junior because Bridgewater had already completed his degree.
That list includes two likely Hall of Famers (Brees and Manning), a player with 96 career wins and five playoff berths (Rivers), one who posted playoff berths in every season he started 10 or more games (Pennington), a current top-five quarterback (Luck) and two of the best young quarterbacks in the league (Bridgewater and Mariota). That's seven success stories and doesn't include Griffin, who won the offensive rookie of the year award before off-field issues seemed to derail his career.
So how does this year's quarterback draft crop rate in the Parcells Rules? Let's take a look, but in an effort to expand the field, we'll review quarterbacks who ranked in a first- or second-round tier in Todd McShay's tier rankings, a list that includes Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg.
Six yes answers
Connor Cook, Michigan State
Three-year starter: Yes
Senior: Yes
College graduate: Yes (bachelor's degree in media and information)
Start 30 games: Yes (started 39)
Won 23 games: Yes (won 34)
Two-to-one TD/INT ratio: Yes (71 to 22)
60 percent completion rate: No (57.5 percent)
Cook is the only quarterback in this group to post six yes answers. He easily bested both the career start and win total and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of more than three-to-one. The determination he showed in overcoming a low recruiting ranking to end up leading the Spartans to more wins than any field general in that program's history speaks volumes for his intangibles.
The main issue here is Cook's only no answer occurred in the 60 percent completion area. This is a big concern because Cook never completed 60 percent of his passes in a single season, either in college or in high school. This isn't a matter of dropped passes, as according to ESPN Stats & Information, Cook finished tied for 82nd out of 89 passer-rating-qualified Power 5 quarterbacks in percentage of off-target passes during the course of the 2013-15 college campaigns (14.5 percent). These factors indicate the accuracy issue is virtually certain to recur during his NFL career.
Four yes answers
Jared Goff, California
Three-year starter: Yes
Senior: No
College graduate: No
Start 30 games: Yes (started 37)
Won 23 games: No (won 14)
Two-to-one TD/INT ratio: Yes (96 to 30)
60 percent completion rate: Yes (62.3 percent)
Given his draft stock value, it's hard to hold it against Goff that he left early, especially since his leadership (two-time captain, as voted on by his teammates), durability (started all 37 games during his Cal career) and intelligence (a reported 36 score on the Wonderlic intelligence test) indicate Goff would have posted seven yes answers had he stayed for his senior season.
Goff also has displayed remarkable consistency. During the past three seasons, he has posted 25 games with a Total QBR of 50 or higher, a mark that ranks tied for sixth among Power 5 passers. Since this metric is measured on a 1-100 scale, with 100 being the best, it means Goff posted above-average performances in a very high percentage of his starts despite having less-than-stellar talent around him much of the time.
Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Three-year starter: Yes
Senior: No
College graduate: No
Start 30 games: Yes (started 38)
Won 23 games: No (won 22)
Two-to-one TD/INT ratio: Yes (59 to 23)
60 percent completion rate: Yes (62.9 percent)
If Goff's draft entry can be justified because he left his program on an up note, Lynch's draft entry is on the other end of that justification spectrum.
The Tigers seemed to lose the wind in their sails last season after consecutive losses to Navy and Houston pretty much ended any chance Memphis had of repeating as American Athletic Conference champions. It ended up being defeated in four of its last five games and Lynch's sub-par performances were a major part of this decline.
In games played from November 2015 through January 2016, Lynch ranked 67th nationally in overall Total QBR (55.9), 70th in vertical pass Total QBR (48.4 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 75th in stretch vertical Total QBR (23.0 on passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield). One Auburn coach said Lynch looked "checked out" during the bowl game. Lynch followed this downward spiral by leaving the program without getting his college degree. Add it all up and his early draft declaration has the look of a poorly timed move.
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
Three-year starter: No
Senior: Yes
College graduate: Yes (is on track to graduate later this year)
Start 30 games: No (started 23)
Won 23 games: No (won 20)
Two-to-one TD/INT ratio: Yes (45 to 14)
60 percent completion rate: Yes (64.1 percent)
Had it not been for a broken right wrist suffered about halfway through the 2015 season, Wentz would almost certainly have posted yes answers to the 30 games started and 23 games won questions. That would have given him six yes answers and only left the three-year starter question as a no.
The major concern for Wentz is one would expect a franchise NFL passer to post out-of-this-world numbers against FCS-caliber competition. While there is no doubt Wentz was prolific, according to ESPN Stats & Information, his completion percentage when facing a blitz was middle of the road and his production on throws 20 or 30 yards downfield was markedly worse than Goff's.
Two yes answers
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
Three-year starter: Yes
Senior: No
College graduate: No
Start 30 games: Yes (started 38)
Won 23 games: No (won 21)
Two-to-one TD/INT ratio: No (48 to 31)
60 percent completion rate: No (56.1 percent)
Hackenberg is the only quarterback in this group to not post a two-to-one or higher touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had the lowest completion percentage and his highest single-season rate in that category was 58.9 percent in 2013.
Making matters worse is Hackenberg was consistent in all the wrong ways in the past three seasons. He had 21 games with a Total QBR of lower than 50 during this time frame, the highest mark among all FBS quarterbacks and one that beat second in this category by four games (John Wolford, Wake Forest, 17). Add this to the other negatives and it gives Hackenberg more red flags than anyone else in this group.