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Draft Grades | Impact players: Round 1 | Rounds 2 and 3 | Rounds 4-7
When doing the NFL draft grades every year, I try not to put too much emphasis on what kind of immediate impact a player will have. Impact isn't as based on player evaluation and has a lot more to do with personnel. Obviously, when teams fill big needs, you're likelier to see impact with those picks, and I make needs a part of the analysis. But maximizing value is key for me.
If the Colts had selected Andrew Luck with Peyton Manning set to be on the roster for one more year, the pick would still have been a good one, even if Luck didn't throw a pass in 2012.
Last year, 17 of the 32 first-round picks started or played in at least 15 games. There was major impact. Let's take a look at the first round and players I believe can have an early impact on their teams (I'll get to Rounds 2-3 and 4-7 over the next two days).
Offense
Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck
I won't belabor this, since we've known for a while where each would head, and that both would start. But I'll say that before the draft, I thought Andrew Luck might struggle a little more early because of supporting cast; the Colts gave him some great pieces to work with. Coby Fleener will have a built-in chemistry with Luck, and Dwayne Allen is the most complete tight end on the board (factoring in blocking). T.Y. Hilton can make plays. Suddenly, the major edge in supporting cast for RG3 has been trimmed some. At this point, I'd call it a toss-up for who will have a better year. RG3 should be really effective in the Mike Shanahan system, and he's simply going to be part of a better team. But at least offensively, the Colts made strides over the weekend.
Trent Richardson
Another one who won't come as a surprise. The Cleveland Browns traded up to No. 3 to get Richardson, and I think they'll get him 250 or more carries in 2012, if he stays healthy. This is a guy as physically ready as we've ever seen for the NFL at the running back position. And the obvious guess is that Brandon Weeden will be doing the handing off.
Michael Floyd
Of the two wide receivers taken in the top 15 (Floyd at No. 13 and Justin Blackmon at No. 5), Floyd is clearly in the better position to make an early impact. With Larry Fitzgerald on the other side of the formation, Floyd will see better corner matchups. Think of Julio Jones last year across from Roddy White. As well, Floyd simply has become a really good route-runner, and he won't have a difficult transition to NFL route concepts out of Notre Dame. Blackmon, on the other hand, has to hope Blaine Gabbert has made major strides this offseason.
Kevin Zeitler
The Bengals didn't quite crack four yards per run last year (3.9) and it was a combination of issues. They clearly lacked explosiveness at running back with Cedric Benson, but I thought the guard play was pretty weak too. They just didn't get enough push, or get to the second level. Zeitler is a really good player, and I think the Bengals will see a difference in the run game as he develops.
Doug Martin
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Martin finishes 2012 with more carries than LeGarrette Blount. He's a really hard worker and will come into camp ready to compete. But more than that, he's just a really complete back. He'll be able to get wide more than Blount, and you want him on the field because he's such a good pass-catcher, an area where Blount really struggles. David Wilson will also get his carries for the New York Giants.
Defense
Morris Claiborne
Dallas clearly had "2012 impact" in mind when they dealt up for Claiborne. Why do I think he'll be good early when so many top corners go through NFL growing pains? For one, the presence of Brandon Carr will take heat off Claiborne. This season wouldn't be as promising if he were thrown immediately on either side of the formation to work against a No. 1 wideout. Also, while people saw last year's top corner, Patrick Peterson, struggle a lot early on, it should be noted that Claiborne is actually a better pure cover corner. This guy is as ready as they come.
Luke Kuechly
You don't take Kuechly unless you plan to play him right away, and once you get him on the field, you'll rarely find a reason to take him off. Kuechly will improve the run defense with his instincts and tackling, but he'll probably also pick off a couple of passes -- the guy is simply fabulous in coverage.
Bruce Irvin
I wasn't thrilled with the value Seattle got in taking Irvin at No. 15 overall, but the fact that they did tells me Pete Carroll has a very specific plan to unleash him. Irvin isn't a complete player, but he is a devastatingly fast pass-rusher who can be moved around to target opposing quarterbacks. The comparisons to Aldon Smith aren't correct, but Carroll has always been creative with his personnel, and I'm sure he's got big plans for Irvin.
Melvin Ingram
San Diego hasn't had a pass-rusher this good since Shawne Merriman was at his peak, even if it was a brief one. Ingram is just a perfect fit in San Diego, and it's hard to say he won't be productive simply because his motor is so good. If he reached double-digit sacks this year, it wouldn't surprise me.
Harrison Smith
When your team lacks talent at safety, you're very good in coverage and you face Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler a combined six times per season, you're going to make an impact. Smith might have growing pains, but what he lacks in speed (and he's not that slow) he makes up for in instincts. He takes great routes to the ball and is rarely caught out of position. Minnesota will see the difference in the secondary immediately.