And then there were two.
After a fascinating pair of Game 3s to end the semifinals series, the 2025 NBL Championship Series matchup is set, with the Illawarra Hawks looking to cap off the greatest offensive season of all time with a title, while Melbourne United is searching for redemption after falling agonisingly short last year.
Once again, we have a battle of a big market vs. small market. The Hawks are based out of the regional, coastal city of Wollongong and embrace the underdog tag even when they aren't. United represents one of the biggest cities in the world, with a roster full of championship-winning veterans who are looking to use that experience to their advantage.
The best-of-five series all begins with Game 1 on Saturday, with Wollongong's WIN Entertainment Centre set to host the matchup, and will likely be full to the brim with some of the most vocal and mischievous fans in the NBL.
"It's not the biggest stadium in the league but, my god, it might be the loudest," Hawks big-man Sam Froling told ESPN.
"It's so much fun. It gives us that extra burst of energy. If you're feeling tired or gassed, you hear that crowd going off and you're not tired anymore. It's so much fun to play in.
"I would hate to be the opposition team in that arena."
United - and in particular, their captain Chris Goulding - has experienced the full force of the trash-talking Hawks fans over the regular season, and are preparing for what's sure to be a fiery reception accordingly.
"Reacting to it, and fuelling them even more, is not a great thing," United head coach Dean Vickerman told ESPN.
"We can deal with our own frustration the right way. Your play is gonna silence the crowd. If you can stop a run with great defence, or stop a run with great execution, that's the best way to stop them getting involved from there."
Here's what to keep an eye on as the series gets set to begin, from the big storylines, to the players primed to explode, and where each team might find their advantages.
Schedule (AEDT)
Game 1: Saturday, March 8 @ 8pm - WIN Entertainment Centre
Game 2: Wednesday, March 12 @ 7:30pm - John Cain Arena
Game 3: Sunday, March 16 @ 5:30pm - WIN Entertainment Centre
Game 4 (if required): Wednesday, March 19 @ 7:30pm - John Cain Arena
Game 5 (if required): Sunday, March 23 @ 2:30pm - WIN Entertainment Centre
Regular season results
Melbourne def Illawarra 92-87 (Oct. 24), Illawarra def Melbourne 106-93 (Dec. 13), Illawarra def Melbourne 117-95 (Jan. 18)
Containing another offensive juggernaut
There'll be no rest for United this postseason.
Their semifinals series had them face a Perth Wildcats team that finished the regular season with the second best offensive rating in NBL history. Next up: a Hawks team that has the highest offensive rating of all time in this league.
United has consistently been a top-three defence under Vickerman - and this season is no different, finishing No. 2 - so they're in a position to be prepared for anything, but the Hawks have a unique combination of offensive weapons.
Trey Kell is the primary ball-carrier and the head of the snake, averaging 18 points and 4.2 assists per game, and coming off a 30-point game in the Hawks' Game 3 win on Wednesday. He's flanked by his fellow All-NBL First Team guard, Tyler Harvey, who averages 17.6 points per game, and has been one of the league's premier three-point shooters over the last half-decade.
That pair is surrounded by high-level shooters, with an elite post presence in Froling, so United is likely set for a more substantial challenge than what they just faced in Bryce Cotton and the Wildcats.
"Do I think the Perth series prepared us well? I think so," Vickerman said.
"Obviously that was guarding Bryce; now, this one is Kell and Harvey. There are a couple on the floor. Then, the shooting; you adjust when [Jesse] Wagstaff comes into the game, and now we'll have [Darius] Days and [Todd] Blanchfield. There are a couple of these absolutely elite shooters out there.
The Hawks, of course, are also coming off arguably their best offensive game of the season, posting a 144.5 offensive rating in their Game 3 win over the South East Melbourne Phoenix, hitting 19 three-pointers in the process.
"There's a double down on some things that happened against Perth," Vickerman said.
"The pace of their offence, both in the full court and the half court, you have to find ways to slow the ball down at different times."
Prepare for a Sam Froling series
Sam Froling is one of the best big-men in the NBL, was just named to the All-NBL Second Team, and is a significant part of what the Hawks do on both ends.
He's also coming off a semifinals series where he averaged less than 20 minutes a game. Now, it wasn't because of foul trouble, or poor play; it was simply what the matchup against the Phoenix dictated. The Phoenix had a propensity to play small, so there was an element of matching that, as well as Hawks head coach Justin Tatum finding advantages with shooting lineups even when facing a more traditional centre.
"We told Sam before last game that, hey, big fella, this might not be a big minute game for you," Tatum told ESPN.
So then, will a series against United - whose preference is to always have a traditional big on the floor - mean we see more of Froling?
"Yes. 1000%," Tatum said. "We're good with Sam going up against [Marcus] Lee and [Rob] Loe... this is a series for Sam, and we identified that."
Over the season, Froling has averaged 14 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, continuing to establish himself as one of the league's best and most reliable centres. In the Hawks' three games against United this season, Froling's averages jump up to 16.7 points and 9.0 rebound a game. United has struggled containing Froling in the post, stretching back to last season's semifinals series between the two teams, so the 25-year-old is confident going into this matchup.
"Individually, I've had success against Melbourne for a long time," Froling told ESPN.
"The staff know that. As a team, when I'm going and getting a bit more in the game against United, we look really good. I'm definitely prepared for a longer stint out there."
United's Loe, who'll likely open the game as Froling's primary matchup, knows it too.
"He's an amazing talent, and doing so well this season," Loe said of Froling.
"We've got to really focus in on him, and their guards as well. They're so deep, and such a talented group, so we've got to have our wits about us the whole game. Sam hurt us last game we played them, and the game before, so we'll be ready for him."
The key to keeping Chris Goulding in check
Arguably the biggest story going into this series is how the Hawks plan to - or attempt to - contain Chris Goulding.
United's captain had 41 points - including 10 three-pointers - in Game 1 of their semifinals series, and backed that up with a 30-point effort with nine made three-pointers in the deciding Game 3. Goulding is unquestionably one of the great shot-makers in world basketball right now, hitting incredibly difficult shots on a wildly consistent basis.
"Once he gets going, it's sort of over," Hawks forward Mason Peatling - a former teammate of Goulding - told ESPN.
"You can't give him easy ones to get him going. He's a great leader of their team too, so him getting going inspires other guys to elevate their game as well."
Goulding, 36, is seemingly getting better with each year; this season, he's had four games where he's made nine or more three-pointers. The efficiency has always been at an admirable level, but the volume over the past two seasons is what's taken a noticeable leap, with Goulding shooting a career-high 10.2 three-point attempts a game this campaign.
We spoke about being aggressive and hunting good shots. We let ourselves down a little bit in the back end of Game 2, where we watched back our offence and there wasn't the same pop to it; there wasn't the same flow, and we maybe settled a little bit. I know I shot some bad ones. So, just making sure we're hunting good looks and trying to be aggressive.
"For me, it's about being aggressive and hunting good shots," Goulding told ESPN.
"We let ourselves down a little bit in the back end of Game 2, where we watched back our offence and there wasn't the same pop to it; there wasn't the same flow, and we maybe settled a little bit. I know I shot some bad ones. So, just making sure we're hunting good looks and trying to be aggressive."
Goulding hurts you in a multitude of ways, and he demonstrated all of them over United's last season. He's constantly hunting trail threes, with Matthew Dellavedova and Shea Ili always searching for him, and his gravity coming off turn-out action is what tore the Wildcats' defence apart.
"The shot-making: to be off balance, shooting it either way, going right or left, and still finding a balance and consistency of shot is truly amazing," Vickerman said.
"There aren't many people who can do that. There are so many other things other than his scoring that's so elite: his leadership in meetings right now, making sure there's clarity in every scout we do, challenging things. He's putting so many winning behaviours together." There are the threes off offensive rebounds and kickouts, and coming off on-balls when he recognises the opposing big isn't at the level; he's one of the NBL's no-leave shooters, so the defence has to be cognizant of where he is on the floor at all times.
"It's about attention to detail, and being physical with him without causing obvious fouls," Tatum said.
"We're a very good team at showing attention to detail to a single player. With [Wani] Swaka [Lo Buluk], with Trey, and [Will] Davo [Hickey], the guys who are really good guarding somebody, they won't lose that attention to detail. There's no way we're gonna run down the court and forget that Goulding's on the court, or that Delly is looking for him on a pin down or something like that.
One of Goulding's best games of the season came in October against the Hawks, in Wollongong, where he had 25 points, including five made three-pointers. If the Hawks can contain him, even in the slightest, it would go a long way toward making sure United can't keep up with their level of scoring.
"Whatever we can do to throw different guys, different matchups, different schemes, it's gonna be a long series and whatever we can do to throw him off his game," Peatling said.
"But, also, we need to make him shoot shots that he doesn't wanna shoot; that'll go a long way to stopping Melbourne."
Why Ian Clark's 38-point outburst changed everything
The leading scorer in the game most people would consider one of the most impressive showings of shot-making the NBL has ever seen: Ian Clark.
The American guard needs no real introduction, of course. Clark was an NBA Champion with the Golden State Warriors back in 2017, and an NBL Champion with the Sydney Kings in 2022; still, he wouldn't generally be atop the billing in a game between Cotton's Wildcats and Goulding's United. What's unique about his existence on this United team is that he has the capacity to be, if he so chooses.
Simply put: when Clark is in attack mode, with an eye toward scoring the ball with a heightened level of aggression, he's one of the best players in the league, and United is a far superior basketball team.
"That's the message: we want him to be aggressive," Goulding said of Clark.
"He's confident, we're confident in him; we see it every day. We're the guys that have to guard him in practice. He's such an impressive offensive player, but the message is: keep being confident, we'll roll with you, and we'll read off you."
When Clark is a threat, it opens the game up for everyone else. You'll often see United run different turnout actions for Clark, where he has a heap of space because Goulding is attracting so much gravity on the other side of the floor. Or, Vickerman might run that same action, but as a decoy to shift the defence so Goulding can come off a turnout on the same side. Goulding comes with gravity built in, but this United team becomes unbelievably more potent when Clark focuses on scoring and can also bend the defence in a significant way.
Clark has averaged 13.8 points per game up to this point, but that number has jumped to 19.1 points per game over his last nine contests, of which United is 8-1.
"We need it," Vickerman said.
"We talked to Ian a while back... we can't win a championship unless we really get you humming. He took that on board. The refresh in America was great for him; the way he's come back from that. It hasn't just been the shooting either. We saw his one-on-one ability the other night, and his midrange and float game has really picked up.
"When you have people that are elite shooters, everyone has the opportunity to run them off the line and make them do other things, but he has the counters."
What role will experience play?
Scan through this United roster and you'll find a combined seven NBL titles, two NBA Championships, and an immense amount of experience playing high-pressure basketball on the international stage.
The Hawks objectively don't match that level of experience. Mason Peatling has one title to his name, while Swaka Lo Buluk has three; though he wasn't a primary player in two of those.
It's obviously not a knock on anybody, but it's important to note that these two rosters are at different points in their respective journeys, and that experience in high-stakes environments could very well play a role in the outcome of this series.
"These guys have been through so many things in world basketball, and so many situations," Vickerman said of his team. "They're gonna be composed in situations, and they're gonna be solution-based, as we were after Game 2."
Dellavedova and Clark, for example, have played meaningful roles in NBA Championships over the past decade, so it's reasonable to place a level of trust in both guards to keep a level head going into this series.
"It's the beauty of the group," Goulding said.
"It's why, over the last couple of years, the club's been really diligent in picking guys who they feel can fill a role.
"Everyone provides their expertise and experience in certain areas, and we're all comfortable in listening and taking direction from others. We have what's best for the group at the forefront of our minds."
Tatum isn't phased, though. He has a strong level of confidence that his team can channel its own high-pressure experiences - however slight, relative to United - to be prepared for the moment come the Championship Series.
"We experienced that loss on Melbourne's court in Game 3," Tatum said.
"We were in the locker room and said, hey, if we're in this position again next year, we'll be prepared, because we know how to deal with the physicality, we know how to deal with bouncing back after 48 hours. The experience last year will help.
"And it's our competitive nature. At the end of the day, basketball is basketball."
Illawarra's big advantage: a plethora of x-factors
Who's the Hawks' x-factor?
Ask that question to 10 people and you'd probably get five different answers. That's the extent of the functional depth of this Hawks team.
One night, it's Hickey blowing teams out of the water with his pace, and the next - like Game 3 of their semifinals series - it's Todd Blanchfield hitting eight three-pointers. Dan Grida is elite as a spark off the bench, Lachlan Olbrich is one of the best back-up bigs in the NBL and provides a different look to Froling, while Darius Days and Hyunjung Lee can string multiple threes together. There are five or six players off that Illawarra bench that can provide double-digit minutes for Tatum in a playoff game, which you can't say about any other team.
"There's a real acknowledgement around the group that every player on our roster adds something very important, but also very different," Peatling said.
"I don't think we have anyone that's a like-for-like on this team. If you're out there, there's a reason why you're out there, and you just have to lean into what you're great at. When you're not out there, that's where the brotherhood, the friendship, the mateship - all the stuff we really pride ourselves on as a group - come out in supporting whoever's out there on the court."
What's unique is how different all of the pieces are, meaning the Hawks can attack you in so many different ways. They can play with pace, but also immediately get to their floppy actions when Lee and Blanchfield hit the floor.
"It's a true understanding of, when those guys come into the game, what are they looking for?" Vickerman said.
"We saw it with Lee in Game 3. As soon as he comes into the game, there are gonna be turnout screens for him. Are you prepared for it? Toddy... you have to make him bounce the basketball. We know when he's in the game, he has to bounce it. He cannot get contested threes. You have to go a step further.
"Olbrich has been so elite at finding ways to go by people. Davo's had big scoring games, driving and in transition, and getting at the rim.
"They all have these really elite skills, and can we contain those skills when they're in the game."