It's NBL award season.
The final round of the regular season is underway, but a lot of eyes are already turning toward the upcoming Andrew Gaze MVP Awards Night -- or, the 'Gazeys' -- as those around the league decide who'll walk away with the many individual honours on offer.
Here's how the process works.
A panel of experts was convened to put forward nominations for each award; that six-person group consisted of Andrew Gaze, Derek Rucker, Michael Cedar, John Casey, Alice Kunek, and Olgun Uluc (this author). Those selections were collated and created the list of nominees that each team's head coach, assistant coach, and captain vote on.
The NBL has announced those nominees that were sent out to teams; they're laid out below, along with ESPN's analysis of each award race.
Does Bryce Cotton have a fifth MVP in the bag? Is Kouat Noi the unanimous Sixth Man of the Year? Who's the best young player in the NBL?
Let's analyse.
Most Valuable Player - Andrew Gaze Trophy
Nominees
Bryce Cotton (Perth)
Chris Goulding (Melbourne)
Casey Prather (Brisbane)
Jaylen Adams (Sydney)
Kendric Davis (Adelaide)
Montrezl Harrell (Adelaide)
Matt Hurt (South East Melbourne)
Parker Jackson-Cartwright (New Zealand)
Sam Froling (Illawarra)
Tyler Harvey (Illawarra)
Trey Kell III (Illawarra)
Xavier Cooks (Sydney)
Analysis
The NBL has offered us 12 nominees for the MVP award, but everyone knows the focus is really just on one.
Cotton will enter the league's awards night as the overwhelming favourite to walk away with his fifth MVP award, following a regular season where he averaged a career-high 28.6 points per game -- on impressive efficiency -- while leading his Perth Wildcats to an 18-11 record. Cotton is the best player on a top-three team, and capped off what's expected to be another MVP season with a 49-point explosion in a win over the Adelaide 36ers.
In the nominations I submitted prior to the shortlists being created, Cotton was No. 1, followed by Davis, Cooks, Harvey, Hurt, Kell, Adams, Goulding, Prather, Harrell, Jackson-Cartwright, Froling, Jack White, Nathan Sobey, and Kristian Doolittle. The NBL wanted a final 12, so they asked us voters to pick a top 15. That gave me a better appreciation of the torture Derek Rucker probably puts himself through when he makes his 'top 15 players in the league' lists. However, it's also worth mentioning that, by the time we hit around the 12th mark, the pool of potential players got so wide that, by the very nature of the task, the last few names weren't added with the same level of conviction as those who proceeded them.
The head coaches and captains of all teams, as well as the aforementioned panel of experts, cast a vote for MVP.
There are a few things that needed separating when voting for an MVP. The definition of 'valuable' is necessarily subjective, so it was about figuring out how much weight to put into certain things. For example, discerning production from impact can sometimes be tough; a player can average 20 points per game and be quite bad. Then, there's the age old question of how much winning matters when deciding an award like this.
My determination was winning matters a lot. The goal of the NBL competition is to achieve victories, and a player's value should be determined by how much he impacts his team's capacity to win games. Of course, there has to be a balance; impact and production do matter, and doing that at a high enough level while also achieving a respectable amount of wins earns someone legitimate consideration.
That's why Davis earned my No. 2 nomination. The production was so off the charts that it warranted a high level of consideration notwithstanding his team's performance: he'll finish the season second in scoring (currently 25.6 ppg) and first in assists (8.0 apg). The 36ers will finish the season well below 0.500, though; so, while I thought the production was enough to overcome that when casting this nomination, he probably shouldn't come close to Cotton, purely because of the inability to impact winning on a consistent basis. Simply put, if I could've given 'daylight' my No. 2 nomination, I would have.
While the NBL has whittled our nominations down to that 12-man shortlist, it's probably wise to just focus on those who would be in that All-NBL First Team conversation.
Cooks averaged similar counting stats to his MVP season a few years ago -- 15.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game -- and the Kings were an absolutely elite team when he was on the floor (123 offensive rating, and a 107 defensive rating). He was also one of the best defenders in the NBL this season, and the Kings finished with a winning record (16-13), so he'd be in strong consideration for a First Team selection.
The same can be said for Hurt, who was a top-five scorer in the league all season long, and played a key role in the Phoenix's surge up the ladder after their 0-5 start. The American forward produced at a high enough level, on a team that had success, that warrants him being toward the top-end of this MVP conversation.
The Hawks' backcourt duo will be part of that debate, too, with both Kell III and Harvey having their elite moments throughout the course of the season. There's a frame of thought that, perhaps, they'll steal votes from one another -- and Froling may do the same, for that matter -- so, if that's the case, it wouldn't be surprising to see some credence given to Harvey, purely because of how consistent his output and impact has been this season. Harvey averaged 17.9 points, but it's the NBL career-highs in efficiency that stand out most: 46% from the field, including 38.6% from downtown.
Most Improved Player
Nominees
Ben Henshall (Perth)
Kouat Noi (Sydney)
Owen Foxwell (South East Melbourne)
Sam Waardenburg (Cairns)
Taran Armstrong (Cairns)
Tyrell Harrison (Brisbane)
Will Hickey (Illawarra)
Analysis
There are a heap of worthy candidates for this, and it'll be intriguing to see which direction the voters go.
If we're purely going off who made the best statistical leap, then Armstrong is the easy frontrunner here. Armstrong went from 7.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game last season, to 17.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game this campaign, all while improving his shooting splits. The 23-year-old also made clear improvements from a physical standpoint, and the three-point shooting jumping to 38.2% on the season was also a great development indicator.
Tyrell Harrison is also one that'll be considered, as someone who emerged as a starter last season, but is now regarded as a sometimes-star for the Bullets. He jumped from 9.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, up to 14.3 points and 9.7 rebounds a contest.
Armstrong received my No. 1 nomination, followed by Harrison, then Waardenburg, Noi, and Henshall.
Waardenburg's leap this season was the one we were expecting him to make last season, but development isn't linear, so he gets credit for it nonetheless. The Kiwi big-man averaged 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.0 blocks per game, which is up from 9.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 0.7 blocks per game over his last campaign. He continued to make strides on the defensive end, and projects as someone who could perhaps take another step up in role, depending on who he's playing for next season.
Noi and Henshall also took major statistical jumps, while Hickey and Foxwell made an impact on winning in ways they hadn't done up to this point in their respective NBL careers, so the improvement among all four was noteworthy, and warranted a nomination here.
Best Sixth Man
Nominees
Cam Oliver (Sydney)
Ian Clark (Melbourne)*
Kouat Noi (Sydney)
Marcus Lee (Melbourne)
Owen Foxwell (South East Melbourne)
Will Hickey (Illawarra)
*Eligibility contingent on whether he qualifies as of the conclusion of Round 20
Analysis
Noi seems like the runaway favourite to win this award, averaging 14.8 points and 3.0 rebounds off the bench for Brian Goorjian's team. He's shooting an impressive 40.1% from downtown, on 5.8 attempts a game, and has consistently been in the Kings' closing lineups.
He received my No. 1 nomination for this award, in what was probably the easiest decision of the lot. Noi's provided an energy and offensive boost that any team generally wants from their sixth man, so he also fulfills the spirit of what the award should represent.
My nominations were: 1. Noi, 2. Jordon Crawford, 3. Hickey, 4. Clark, and 5. Lee. Unfortunately, Crawford ultimately became ineligible for this award after my nominations were cast, so that No. 2 selection became redundant.
Hickey's counting stats don't absolutely jump out at you, but he fit the role of sixth man perfectly for the Hawks. Every time he stepped onto the floor, he'd lift the group, made sure they played with pace, and even worked his way into some closing lineups. Going into their final game of the season, the Hawks were a league-leading +266 with Hickey on the floor, which points to his effectiveness, so, of course, impacting winning would be part of the consideration here.
Clark's impact dipped compared to last season, but he was still productive enough -- 12.8 points per game -- to earn a spot on this list. Lee being on the Best Defensive Player shortlist made it difficult to not have him as one of the NBL's best sixth men, with United boasting a net rating of 20 with him on the floor, so bringing that level of punch off the bench was quite meaningful for Dean Vickerman's team.
Foxwell is another bench player who impacted winning in a really positive way, averaging 7.9 points and 2.4 assists per game on elite shooting splits. There are players who make their impact in a more explosive way that may get some credence over him when it comes to the voters, but a spot on this list is well-deserved.
You can understand Oliver's addition by the panel of experts, purely given his counting stats -- 12.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game -- and the fact that he was eligible for the award, but it's tough to see the coaches and captains seeing him as a true sixth man.
Best Defensive Player - Damian Martin Trophy
Nominees
Matthew Dellavedova (Melbourne)
Marcus Lee (Melbourne)
Mitch Norton (Brisbane)
Shea Ili (Melbourne)
Will Magnay (Tasmania)
Wani Swaka Lo Buluk (Illawarra)
Xavier Cooks (Sydney)
Analysis
The sentiment around the league seems to be that Ili is probably the favourite to win this award for the second straight season, with the United guard once again putting together an extremely impressive defensive campaign. United is on track to finish the season as a top-two defence, and a significant reason for that is because of Ili's ability to make early connection, stifle opposing ball carriers, and neutralise perimeter scoring threats.
My nominations for this award were: 1. Cooks, 2. Ili, 3. Swaka Lo Buluk, 4. Lee, and 5. Alex Toohey. Toohey, of course, didn't make the shortlist that was sent to voters, but I gave him credit for his ability to guard the point of attack at a high level, on the league's best defence, while being among the NBL leaders in combined steals and blocks.
The argument for Cooks is simple. The Kings have had the NBL's No. 1 defence for practically the entire season -- finishing with a 110.9 defensive rating -- and it's even better in the minutes Cooks plays (a 107 defensive rating). Cooks is a significant reason why the Kings are such an effective team on that end, because he excels as a big who can hard show and recover, and his mobility and athleticism allows them to switch consistently.
While the NBA iteration of this award generally goes to bigs, the NBL landscape usually puts a larger emphasis on perimeter defence; my guess is because a guard playing up and in is 'louder' than a solid defensive big, unless there's some emphatic shot-blocking going on. Cooks is the best and most versatile defender on the best defensive team in the league, and is a big reason why they've been atop that category for the entire season, so he was atop my nominations.
Swaka Lo Buluk is also regarded among the frontrunners for this award, and he's an intriguing option to look at. He's someone who most would say is one of the NBL's best point of attack defenders; the 6'6 wing consistently takes on the opposing team's primary offensive guard option, and is elite at picking up full court, staying in front of his man, and not getting screened. The Hawks are, according to the data, a worse defensive team with him on the floor, though. The Hawks have a defensive rating of 113.5 on the season, but that dips to 117 with Swaka Lo Buluk on the floor. You could point to the team's bench being elite, so they help the Hawks' overall numbers, but the reality is that they give up a higher rate of points when Swaka Lo Buluk is out there, compared to when he's not. Again, it has to be stressed that advanced numbers can be noisy, so this doesn't minimise what Swaka Lo Buluk is as a defender; we probably all agree he's in the top tier in the NBL. It's reasonable, however, to put some consideration into those numbers when gauging how deserving somebody is for a defensive award, especially when all else is equal.
Lee is a significant part of what United does defensively, with the team conceding just 103 points per 100 possessions (a league best among qualified players) when he's on the floor. The big-man is also tied for first in the league in block percentage (9%) among qualified players. United's dip in play in the middle third of the season coincided with Lee being injured, because of how much his absence impacted their defence.
It's surprising to see Magnay's name on this shortlist, considering the big-man only played 13 games this regular season; in saying that, he would more-than-likely have been the frontrunner for this award if he stayed healthy. Mitch Norton is still one of the NBL's most annoying defenders --that's obviously a compliment -- but the Bullets are the 10th-ranked defence, so it's legitimate to question his spot on the list of nominees.
One omission is Kristian Doolittle. The Wildcats forward is widely regarded as one of the league's most versatile defenders, and it would've been fine to ignore the team's 6th-ranked defence to include him on this list of nominees. Doolittle missing some time, as well as perhaps being more impactful as a defender last season compared to this campaign, may have contributed to him not finding his way on this list.
Next Generation Award
Nominees
Alex Toohey (Sydney)
Ben Henshall (Perth)
Izan Almansa (Perth)
Karim Lopez (New Zealand)
Lachlan Olbrich (Illawarra)
Malique Lewis (South East Melbourne)
Taran Armstrong (Cairns)
Wani Swaka Lo Buluk (Illawarra)
Analysis
All eyes will likely be on Armstrong for this award, too, with the 23-year-old capping off an impressive season with a 28-point triple-double in his team's final home game.
Armstrong is averaging 17.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game; production that's probably enough for us to ignore that his team will finish the season at the bottom of the ladder. The 6'6 point guard was given substantial usage, and he made the most of it, and in a relatively efficient way.
My nominees for this award were: 1. Armstrong, 2. Toohey, 3. Sam Mennenga, 4. Henshall, and 5. Olbrich. Mennenga was the only one of my nominees not to make the final shortlist; the Kiwi big-man dealt with some consistency issues, but still averaged 11.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, and, at his best, showed to be a really high level player.
Outside of the production of Armstrong, the list is a fascinating one to break down. Toohey has made a substantial two-way impact on a team that will finish in the top half of the ladder, averaging 10.6 points and 4.0 rebounds per game for the Kings. Henshall is another -- 9.8 points per game -- who's been really effective on a team that's won the bulk of its games.
Olbrich and Swaka Lo Buluk are a pair whose numbers are substantial but have been key players for the No. 1-seed Hawks, with the latter also in the running for the league's Best Defensive Player award.
Karim Lopez is one of those players -- like Toohey, Olbrich, and Henshall -- who really fits the spirit of the award, in the sense of the Mexican forward producing at such an impressive level as a 17-year-old in a pro league. Lopez averaged 9.6 points and 4.7 rebounds for the Breakers this season and, if he doesn't walk away with this season's Next Gen award, he'll likely be the frontrunner to win it going into his 2025-26 campaign.
Coach of the Year - Lindsay Gaze Trophy
Nominees
Mike Wells (Adelaide)
Justin Schueller (Brisbane)
Adam Forde (Cairns)
Justin Tatum (Illawarra)
Dean Vickerman (Melbourne)
Petteri Koponen (New Zealand)
John Rillie (Perth)
Josh King (South East Melbourne)
Brian Goorjian (Sydney)
Scott Roth (Tasmania)
Analysis
Every head coach earned a nomination for this season's Coach of the Year award, and the formula to win it -- basically the narrative one needs to take control of -- remains largely unchanged.
It's outcomes over expectations. Simply put: to what extent did you defy expectations?
The Hawks' Tatum seems like the clear frontrunner to walk away with the Lindsay Gaze Trophy, with the American leading the franchise to its first ever No. 1 seed. The Hawks were expected to have a relatively strong rebound following last season's impressive semifinals showing, but not many expected them to sit atop the NBL ladder for the majority of the season. Tatum had his team operating with the clear No. 1 offence in the league, and made significant improvements defensively over the course of the season.
King is another who'll earn strong consideration here. The Phoenix are 14-6 with King as head coach, and have worked their way into a top-four spot after starting the season 0-5 under then head coach Mike Kelly. King has done an extremely impressive job instilling a defensive identity in the group -- they're a top-three defence -- while maximising the talent on the roster.
Any coach in the top-four will likely be considered here. Vickerman, however, was the winner of last season's award, so it's tough to see him taking it in back-to-back years. As for Rillie, he deserves credit for how he has the Wildcats operating -- especially on the offensive end -- but it wouldn't be surprising if many put the team's success primarily down to Cotton's incredible play.
The NBL's awards night will be broadcast on Kayo on Monday, February 10, beginning at 7:30pm (AEDT).