With the weekend's action in the books, it's time to react with fire or cool the jets on some NBL takes.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
BOTH INTERIM COACHES SHOULD BE SIGNED FOR NEXT SEASON IN ADELAIDE AND ILLAWARRA
Peter Hooley: Storyline
We have spoken a few times about Justin Tatum and the future in Illawarra and that looks to be only a matter of time for him to sign a deal to return. Adelaide is an interesting one because it has been noted how they have had interest in the likes of Brian Goorjian and Trevor Gleeson (who wouldn't?) but you can't knock a winning team. Adelaide has been one of the hottest teams in the entire league of late and as a club, that has to be a major measurement in how you gauge what to do going forward. Scott Ninnis can only control what he can control and right now that's just winning every chance he has. The way the 36ers have let Isaac Humphries be their primary target and then Kell and Vasiljevic fill big roles around him, it's mighty impressive. Ninnis has a big part of this 36ers history and it's starting to look like that may continue going forward.
Kane Pitman: Headline
I'm not there at this point and would hope both clubs test the market and see what names may be available in the next few months. Illawarra (9-5) and Adelaide (6-5) have both improved dramatically from what appeared to be disastrous campaigns earlier this season, though I still remain cautious on short sample records in a season that has become utterly impossible to predict. Tatum and Ninnis deserve a chance, without question, but if Goorjian or Gleeson become available and willing, I'm not passing up on that opportunity.
Olgun Uluc: Headline
I'm with Kane on this one. And, of course, this absolutely isn't an indictment on how each coach has performed in their time at the helm; both Tatum and Ninnis have achieved results, and that's the most important factor in this business. There are two parts to this: what we know is the case, and then our opinion on the matter. What we know is that the Tatum situation feels slightly different, because he's been around the team for longer and will have a very similar roster for next season, so there's some continuity and an existing relationship there that makes sense. That doesn't exist to the same extent with Ninnis in Adelaide. When it comes to signing a head coach for the long run, the sample size just isn't there to go all in and not do the due diligence to speak with potentially available candidates. Why rush?
ILLAWARRA MADE SOME DISCOVERIES WHEN IT COMES TO THE BLUEPRINT FOR STOPPING BRYCE COTTON
Peter Hooley: Storyline
If you watch the last two Hawks and Wildcats games and then watch any other game of the season, you'll see a completely different game plan from Illawarra. It might not seem like rocket science, but they have been doing it collectively which is why it has been so successful. Some possessions they run two at Cotton as soon as he touches it, forcing him to give it up and then others they wait for him to make a move before having players load up the help and shrink the floor. Granted, Cotton missed some very good looks last round, but the way the entire five on the floor stay locked in to their defensive style is impressive. Even on fast breaks by Perth, whoever is closest to Cotton just goes and sits in his lap and would be ok with giving up anything else in transition other than a pass to Bryce. It's worked twice so they're doing something right.
Kane Pitman: Headline
As a rule, I won't get into the idea of a team having the formula to stop the greats... a category in which Cotton comfortably sits. In holding Cotton to 12 and 9 shot attempts across two meetings, the Hawks have minimised the damage better than any team in the league over the last two months. It is worth noting Perth was just -6 in the 34 minutes Cotton played against the Hawks despite his diminished scoring numbers, which means the Wildcats were -12 in the six minutes he sat. Cotton is still able to put the Wildcats in a position to win without scoring, but they need more than nine points from Pinder and better than 3-for-14 shooting from Usher. A big part of the responsibility falls on Cotton's teammates to make the most of four on three situations. I'll back Bryce if these teams meet in the postseason.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline
There's no denying Tatum and his crew figured some stuff out. Throwing size on Cotton, forcing him off the three-point line, then having a free safety type of guy be there to help immediately, has achieved demonstrably positive outcomes for the Hawks, including the win on both occasions. The Hawks made Cotton look small, physically, which he rarely seems because of his usually-dominant play; he had inefficient nights on low attempt volume in both matchups, which got the Wildcats out of their rhythm. Now, you'd of course bet on Cotton and the Wildcats to make the necessary adjustments when they face the Hawks - or anyone who implements what they did defensively - next, but it wouldn't be surprising if we see more of that type of coverage against the eventual MVP for the remainder of this season and going into the playoffs.
ISAAC HUMPHRIES IS IN LINE TO MAKE THE ALL NBL FIRST TEAM
Peter Hooley: Storyline
Even though the changes to the rules have this as a positionless team, I still believe those voting will try and shape it to look like it has in the past: that being three guards and two bigs. Anthony Lamb is probably a lock, which could technically fill a 'big' role if you look at it that way, but in terms of true centres, there probably hasn't been anyone put their hand up like Humphries has. The big man has been dominant in this second half of the season and stands out as the best and most consistent across the league. The last few games could be telling in how the last few spots of the first team look, because there are probably three locks in it right now which means there are two spots up for grabs. Cotton, Goulding and Lamb would be certainties and you could argue Parker Jackson-Cartwright is as well, which doesn't leave many spots for anyone else.
Kane Pitman: Headline
If Humphries had played at his recent level throughout the entire season, he'd almost certainly be in the box seat, though I think the crunch for spots in the first team is going to be brutal. Along with the guys, I would have CG, Lamb and Bryce as locks and I would also put Mitch Creek in there for his consistently outrageous numbers and efficiency. Even though the league has pivoted to positionless teams (finally), I would only want to see one true five. For me, I would have Sam Froling ahead of Humphries and I would also put Jo Lual-Acuil in this mix, but I don't believe he has played enough games to receive the honour. I think there should be a bar of playing at least 75 percent of games for end of year awards. If he plays the final four games, JLA will have appeared in just 20 games (71 percent).
Olgun Uluc: Headline
At his best, Humphries is showing that there's no other big man you'd rather in the NBL right now. Unfortunately, he may end up being the first victim of the league changing these All-NBL teams to positionless. If there was a designated spot for bigs, or for a five-man, he has a damn good argument to be in the First Team in that spot. Froling has a good shout, too, of course, while Lual-Acuil Jr. and Alan Williams would be impacted heavily by the games they've missed. I'll join the chorus of Cotton and Goulding as locks, and then take your pick of Mitch Creek, Anthony Lamb, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Jaylen Adams, and either of Tassie's guards, all of whom have been performing at a high rate with a level of consistency this season. Again, this is an indictment on the system - which I largely agree with - that makes it tough for Humphries, who's suddenly looking like he's re-emerged as maybe the most sought-after free agent this coming off-season, to crack that now-positionless team.