It's been more than a month since the 2025-26 season started, giving us an early idea of where teams stack up in their respective conferences.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, the defending NBA champions, are at the top of the Western Conference with a nearly perfect 16-1 record. Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference has seen the surprising rise of the Detroit Pistons, while teams expected to contend for the conference faced early struggles.
The season is still in its infancy, but early play is already revealing strengths and weaknesses. Our ESPN insiders took a look at teams with title aspirations in both conferences, answered the biggest question facing each team and weighed in on what each team needs to do to stay among the contenders. These teams were selected based on having at least a 1.5% chance of reaching the finals per BPI.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | CLE | DEN
DET | GS | HOU | LAL
MIA | MIN | NY |OKC
ORL | PHI | SA | TOR
Eastern Conference
The Hawks have played above expectations with Trae Young out. What happens when Young returns?
Surprisingly, since Young went down on Oct. 29, the Hawks have played the style head coach Quin Snyder preached during camp: moving the ball, drive and space, cutting, sharing the ball, defending and being competitive. Jalen Johnson has played like an emerging star and players are stepping up when others are out. Role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker have been terrific as Atlanta has gone 9-4 without Young.
The team was trying to develop chemistry during the first five games Young played in with players like Kristaps Porzingis, Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard. Now, the Hawks have begun forming an identity in Young's absence, and it will take time to develop cohesion when he returns. The good thing is Young is expected back after mid-December, and they have plenty of time to find their stride at full strength. This period without Young will only make the Hawks stronger. -- Ohm Youngmisuk
What is the goal for this season?
Anyone believing this Celtics team is a real threat in the East saw the flaws in this group in Friday's NBA Cup loss at home to the Brooklyn Nets. Then again, after trading away Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, letting Al Horford and Luke Kornet walk in free agency and having Jayson Tatum out with a torn Achilles, no one should be expecting that from Boston, anyway.
The real question in Boston is if the Celtics will remain truly committed to trying to make the playoffs this season, or if they'll instead pivot to the future -- and getting out of the luxury tax. For future seasons, resetting the repeater clock would be a wise move for Boston, and the Celtics currently remain about $12 million over it, although with a $27 million expiring salary in Anfernee Simons on the books they are a couple of moves away from potentially ducking it. Either way, that -- plus whether or not we see Tatum at some point before the season ends -- will dominate the discussion around the Celtics from now until next spring. -- Tim Bontemps
Can Cleveland unlock its elite offense again?
The Cavs were the No.1 seed in the East last year in large part because of an elite offense that was the best in the NBA in efficiency. This year, Cleveland ranks outside the top 10 offenses, still solid, but far from the prolific offense that carried the team last season.
The Cavs are still launching 3s but making them at a much lower clip (35.1%) from their league-leading pace last year. They haven't been able to generate as many shots at the rim or get in the paint as often, which has led to an offense with much less ball movement.
Donovan Mitchell has had to take on a greater share of the offense, averaging 20.3 field goal attempts per game, numbers more in line with his days in Utah than averages in Cleveland. The Cavs have had Darius Garland, their starting point guard, for only three games this season because of a toe injury. His addition to the rotation will certainly help, but the offense still has a few issues it can iron out without him to start flowing the way it was at its peak last season. -- Jamal Collier
How will J.B. Bickerstaff incorporate all his returning players into a rotation that's been rolling without them?
It sounds like rich people problems, but with Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey out for long stretches, players such as Daniss Jenkins, Javonte Green and veteran Paul Reed have done more than fill in admirably; they've woven themselves into the culture and have warranted playing time to continue. The Pistons' defense is top three in so many important metrics (defensive rating, defensive field goal percentage and fewest assists), and Bickerstaff has to walk the fine line of keeping the good vibes going while bringing back his mainstays -- especially Ivey, who made his season debut on Saturday.
Bickerstaff played 12 when the game was in contention against Milwaukee. Can he keep that up and put enough shooting on the floor for a team that's 21st in 3-point shooting? -- Vincent C. Goodwill
Stephen A. Smith weighs in on whether the Heat or the Magic are a bigger threat in the NBA's Eastern Conference.
Is Miami's new-look offense working as intended?
Following in the footsteps of the 2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies, the Heat have overhauled their offensive approach. They don't look like any other team in the NBA: Miami is setting just 15.4 picks per 100 possessions, per GeniusIQ; for context, the previous low for any team in any season in the tracking era (since 2013-14) was 37.9 picks by the 2018-19 76ers.
This unorthodox style has boosted Miami's scoring -- but only slightly. Stripping out garbage time, the Heat ranked 25th, 21st and 21st in offensive efficiency, and they're up to 13th in 2025-26. Individual players like Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have taken to the new system with aplomb, but as a whole, the Heat are still only an average offensive team, which isn't good enough to compete for a title when Miami is not a defensive juggernaut.
The impending return of Tyler Herro could help, if he's able to slot seamlessly into the no-picks offense. (Herro led the Heat with 35 picks per 100 possessions last season.) Bam Adebayo has also missed nearly half of Miami's games. So while the innovative system might get Miami part of the way to a top-tier offense, more star power appears necessary to complete that journey. -- Zach Kram
How do the Knicks handle the absence of OG Anunoby?
It'll be another week before Anunoby is evaluated for his hamstring injury, and given Anunoby's injury history (playing 70-plus games only twice in eight seasons), it seems being cautious will be the smart play here. In the meantime, head coach Mike Brown has to find a way to unlock Karl-Anthony Towns. He doesn't seem to fit in the offense so far, and the numbers bear it out. He's shooting 10 percentage points below his career average and a career-low 31.7% from 3-point range.
It's such a small sample size that perhaps it's too early to panic, but it's noticeable -- especially with how the Knicks struggle defensively without Anunoby. On Saturday, Orlando feasted all over the floor, and the Knicks didn't look good on defense when playing Towns and Mitchell Robinson together. New York is a middle-of-the-pack team on defense with one win on the road. It's getting late a bit early in Gotham. -- Goodwill
Can the Magic raise their shooting to match their elite defense for a deep playoff run?
After a slow start to the season, the Magic have seemingly found their footing and defensive identity. They've won 9 of their last 13, even with Paolo Banchero missing the past six games because of a groin injury. Defensively, the Magic are still trying to recapture the level they defended at last season when they finished with the second-best defensive rating. And the Magic are playing faster with coach Jamahl Mosley emphasizing running off stops and pushing when they can. But shooting remains a question mark.
While they've improved their 3-point shooting slightly, from a last-place 31.8% last season to 35.4% this season, they need to shoot better. Orlando paid a steep price to get Desmond Bane to address this area, betting he will raise his 3-point shooting percentage to his career 40.7% average. But will his presence open more space for Banchero and Franz Wagner to operate in? And can Banchero and Wagner improve their 3-point shooting to get the Magic out of the first round? Wendell Carter Jr. and Tristan da Silva have shot above 40% from 3, which helps. But if Orlando wants to make noise in the postseason, Bane, Banchero and Wagner have to raise their 3-point shooting to give Orlando's elite defense the help it needs. -- Youngmisuk
Can Joel Embiid and Paul George stay healthy?
It was a year ago that Philadelphia was seen as a team worthy of being a title contender. But after the disaster that last season was, just making the playoffs will be a true success story for the 76ers this time around. It's been a frisky start to the season, with Philadelphia jumping out to a 9-7 start after Thursday's overtime win in Milwaukee. But for this team to have any chance of being a real threat to make playoff noise in the Eastern Conference, it's going to need both George and Embiid available down the stretch and in the playoffs.
The early returns on George, who made his season debut last week after offseason knee surgery, are encouraging after he had 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in 25 minutes in Milwaukee. Embiid's play had been up and down before he missed time with right knee soreness, with his mobility away from the basket defensively the biggest sign that he still isn't fully confident on his surgically repaired left knee. But if the two of them can play and be reasonably effective alongside the perimeter trio of Tyrese Maxey, rookie VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes, the Sixers will be able to talk themselves into being frisky given the soft nature of the top of the conference. -- Bontemps
What's the biggest factor propelling the Raptors to their hot start?
Surprisingly, it's their depth. Toronto has five well-known, highly paid players, but the starting lineup they comprise has outscored opponents by only 5 points per 100 possessions -- a decent but unspectacular showing. As expected, the skill sets of Toronto's starters don't make for a perfect fit.
However, the Raptors are thriving when reserves Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Jamal Shead and Sandro Mamukelashvili are on the floor, as coach Darko Rajakovic can mix and match his lineups to ensure a proper two-way balance at all times. Out of 27 Raptors duos with at least 100 minutes together, the top 10 all involve either Dick or Mamukelashvili, while the starrier pairings of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, and Ingram and RJ Barrett, have actually been outscored on the year.
That dynamic raises questions about Toronto's ceiling in the playoffs, when rotations generally shrink. But for now, at least, there's no reason to expect the Raptors' role players to stop powering wins. -- Kram
Western Conference
Can Cameron Johnson join the party?
The Nuggets profile as one of the biggest threats to the defending champion Thunder despite their biggest offseason addition dealing with an extended slump to start the season.
Denver ranks second in the league in offensive efficiency (121.9 points per 100 possessions) and third in net rating (plus-9.7) even though Johnson is averaging only 9.4 points per game while shooting 33.3% from 3-point range, which is almost 10% points lower than his career norm. Johnson's production since a one-game absence to rest a right biceps strain has been encouraging. He averaged 14.5 points in his last two games, going 9-of-17 from the floor and 5-of-8 from 3-point range. The Nuggets especially need Johnson to perform up to his standard with Christian Braun out at least six weeks because of an ankle sprain. -- Tim MacMahon
Does a softer travel schedule produce more consistent results?
Steve Kerr has a statistic he has been continually tracking and citing recently. In 18 games, the Warriors are 8-1 when they win the turnover battle and 1-8 when they lose it. Kerr is of the belief that if the Warriors want to get back to the 23-8 version that sprinted to the playoffs following the Jimmy Butler III trade last February, the largest key is better ball security more consistently.
The Warriors are hopeful that a lighter schedule and more practices will produce sharper focus, rested bodies and, thus, lower turnovers. They've played an NBA-high 17 total games, 12 road games and five back-to-backs in the opening month. But there's always a reward for that. Their next four are at home and they have eight straight in San Francisco in January. The bottom of the Western Conference has been surprisingly forgiving. Their 9-9 record has them eighth. But this is an older team that is intent on a top-six seed. To climb into safety, they can't hover around .500 all season. -- Anthony Slater
Can Houston keep up this level of production offensively?
Not only can the Rockets maintain their level of offensive production, but there's a decent chance they'll improve because the starting group hasn't been together very long, and the supporting cast is still adjusting to playing alongside star forward Kevin Durant. Remember, Houston lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet just before the start of training camp to a season-ending injury, forcing the Rockets to use a committee approach to facilitating offense. It has worked well with Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and Durant handling the main ballhandling responsibilities.
What's more is that Durant has empowered teammates to find their individual roles. Sengun is transforming into a superstar offensive hub. Thompson is wreaking havoc from the dunker spot. Jabari Smith Jr. is hitting a career-high 39.5% from 3-point range, while Reed Sheppard continues to prove he's the long-range marksman everyone expected, connecting on 48.8% from range.
Houston's bigs need to stay healthy to maintain the team's rebounding dominance. Houston has reeled off two 5-game winning streaks, and it has scored 20-plus second-chance points in an NBA-best eight games, according to ESPN Research. Essentially, the Rockets have bullied their way to the league's best offense, and that style should be effective in the postseason. -- Michael C. Wright
Can the Lakers' high-powered offense mask their defensive deficiencies?
L.A. hit its stride last season in January and February, going 19-7 and ranking in the top five in the league in defensive efficiency as the team not only went through a franchise transformation with the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis swap, but developed a defensive-minded identity on the fly. So far this season, they've slipped significantly, ranked 14th in defensive rating per game -- allowing a whopping 10.1 points more per 100 possessions than the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.
However, the offense -- orchestrated by three triple-threat wings in Doncic, Austin Reaves and now, LeBron James -- could be what the Lakers hang their hats on this season. At least for now. The Lakers are second in the league in true shooting percentage (61.5%) and are second in both free throw attempts per game (29) and free throw percentage in clutch situations (87.5%) this season -- all signs that they can get what they want on offense when they want it. In Tuesday's win over Utah, the first game all season in which L.A. had every player on its 14-man roster healthy and available, the Lakers scored a season-high 140 points and shot 60% as a team while racking up 31 assists.
As James works to get his wind back after a long layoff because of sciatica and coach JJ Redick tinkers with his optimal rotation now that he has every player at his disposal, leaning on the offense might be the Lakers' best option to keep winning. -- Dave McMenamin
Can the Timberwolves replace Nickeil Alexander-Walker in-house?
Depth was an edge for Minnesota en route to back-to-back conference finals appearances, but losing Alexander-Walker has turned it into a weakness. Despite getting 13.1 PPG off the bench from former Sixth Man award winner Naz Reid, Minnesota ranks 28th in both minutes and points per game by reserves, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Given the Timberwolves' depleted draft assets, developing a replacement for Alexander-Walker is critical. Thus far, 2024 first-round picks Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. (currently sidelined by a bone bruise in his left foot) are both shooting under 40% effective field goal percentage, limiting their playing time.
The closest thing Minnesota has to an in-house solution is 2023 second-round pick Jaylen Clark, a strong perimeter defender who has played the most minutes of the Wolves' young guards (16.5 per game) and has shot 9-of-25 (36%) from 3. If opponents don't respect Clark's shooting, it will be tough to keep him on the court in the playoff crucible. -- Kevin Pelton
Are we watching one of the best teams in NBA history?
It's hard to find nits to pick with the defending champs, who are off to 17-1 start despite All-NBA forward Jalen Williams having yet to play a second this season. Oklahoma City is on pace to smash the record for point differential in a season ... for the second consecutive season. Oklahoma City is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.3 points per game, a jaw-dropping improvement from last season's record-breaking plus-12.9 point differential.
The Thunder have the league's best defense (again) by a laughable margin. Oklahoma City is holding foes to 103.1 points per 100 possessions, 7.1 points fewer than the second-ranked Pistons. To put that gap into perspective, it's about the same as the margin between Detroit and the 22nd-ranked Jazz. How dominant are the Thunder? Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has sat out the fourth quarter in more than half of Oklahoma City's games. -- MacMahon
Will San Antonio's early rash of injuries diminish its prospects to truly contend?
It's possible. Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle became the latest casualties on a team featuring multiple players missing chunks of the season so far because of injuries. After playing just five games with Wembanyama in 2024-25, veteran De'Aaron Fox has played alongside the Frenchman just four times this season, as the guard missed the first eight outings because of a strained hamstring. No. 2 pick Dylan Harper (calf) hasn't played since Nov. 2, while frontcourt players such as Jeremy Sochan, Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk have also missed time. Luckily for San Antonio, all the injuries came early and were deemed minor, while also providing opportunities for reserves to gain experience.
But all the missed time is slowing this team's ability to develop the cohesion it knows it needs to realistically compete in the postseason. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has discussed on multiple occasions the challenges of gaining the requisite chemistry in the face of so many players missing time. We've seen the improvements Wembanyama and Castle made as a duo through their work together over the summer. But Wembanyama's cohesion with Fox is more important to San Antonio's success, considering both are star players capable of taking over games. -- Wright