There is a cold reality when it comes to NBA free agency this summer.
Outside of players re-signing with their current teams or agreeing on sign-and-trades, free agents are staring at the Brooklyn Nets, who are the only team with enough salary cap room to offer a contract greater than $30 million. However, half the league has the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception.
To show the complexities of negotiating in free agency, we chose 10 of the biggest free agents this offseason and examined what their next contract should be.
This list won't include Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James, as ESPN's Shams Charania reported in May that signs point to James opting in to his $52.6 million salary for next season. If James does become a free agent, the 40-year-old would be eligible to sign up to a three-year, $175 million contract with the Lakers.
(Note: The order below is based on Kevin Pelton's top 25 free agent rankings for the 2025 offseason.)
James Harden
LA Clippers | Guard
Free agent ranking: 2
Best free agent fit: LA Clippers
The deal I'd offer: Two years, $79 million. (The $41 million second-year salary has $10 million in guaranteed money. It increases to $25 million if the Clippers reach the conference finals and becomes fully guaranteed if LA reaches the NBA Finals.)
An All-Star appearance and an All-NBA nod for the first time since 2020 should have Harden seeking a raise and multiyear contract.
Harden logged the fifth-most minutes of any player this season and appeared in 79 games, his most in the regular season since 2016-17. As a result, Harden became the only player this season with 1,500 points, 500 assists, 100 steals and 50 blocks.
"Because James has a player option, it would be irresponsible for me not to have contingency plans with it," Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank said after the season. "But I'm going in with the intent that if he doesn't pick up his option, that we're going to be able to reach an agreement that works well for James and works well for the Clippers."
Considering the lack of teams with cap space, Harden's age (he recently turned 37) and the importance of financial flexibility in the 2026 offseason, the Clippers can be creative with their next contract.
The $38 million salary in the first year is an increase from his $36.3 million player option, but it still gives them flexibility to use their full $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception.
The second year not only benefits Harden financially but also the Clippers if they reach the conference finals for the first time since 2021.
Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks | Guard
Free agent ranking: 3
Best free agent fit: Dallas
The deal I'd offer: Three years, $113 million.
The $113 million contract is a win-win for Irving and the Mavericks.
The $35 million price tag next season is $8 million lower than Irving's player option and gives Dallas greater flexibility to operate below the second apron. The Mavericks now have access to the $5.7 million tax midlevel exception to sign a temporary replacement for Irving. If the nine-time All-Star opts in to his $43 million salary, the Mavericks have only the veteran minimum exception and are over the second apron.
While there is a drop in salary next season, Irving is guaranteed an additional $70 million in new money. The 33-year old tore his left ACL in March but still remains part of the Mavs' future.
"The team we're bringing back is a championship-caliber team," Mavs GM Nico Harrison said after the season. "We fully expect to have Kyrie back with us next year. When he gets healed from his injury, we believe we'll be competing for a championship."
Irving's three-year contract aligns with that of Anthony Davis.
Julius Randle
Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward
Free agent ranking: 4
Best free agent fit: Minnesota
The deal I'd offer: Four years, $121 million. (The fourth year of the contract becomes guaranteed if the Timberwolves reach the NBA Finals in 2026, 2027 or 2028.)
Randle is not a restricted free agent like Giddey and Kuminga but is faced with a daunting market if he declines his $30.9 million player option and enters free agency. That does not mean the forward and the Timberwolves should not compromise on a new contract.
Randle's strong play to finish the regular season (he averaged 18.2 points in the final 21 games), carried over to the first two rounds of the playoffs, where he had eight 20-point games and averaged 23.9 points. But in Games 2 and 4 in the Wolves' conference finals loss to the Thunder, Randle scored a combined 11 points.
The four-year, $121 million new contract (the player option is replaced with a new salary), is a win-win for Randle and the Timberwolves.
The $4 million in savings (Randle's first-year salary would be $27 million), has Minnesota positioned to bring back reserves Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker while remaining below the second apron.
"We're very appreciative of what the market might look like," Timberwolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said after the season. "We're pretty cautiously optimistic we're in a good place with all of the guys [Randle, Reid and Alexander-Walker]. Most importantly, they want to be here."
The contract is greater than the $117 million extension Randle signed with New York in 2021 and gives him nearly $90 million in guaranteed money for the next three seasons.
Fred VanVleet
Houston Rockets | Guard
Free agent ranking: 5
Best free agent fit: Houston
The deal I'd offer: Three years, $80 million. (The second year has $15 million in guaranteed money and the third season is a team option.)
The next contract for VanVleet will play a role in how much flexibility Houston has this offseason and in future years.
The Rockets could exercise his $44.9 million team option by June 29 and then use the guard as a valuable trade chip if a deal materializes (potentially for Kevin Durant). However, by picking up the option, Houston becomes a luxury tax team over both aprons.
The more logical play is to decline the option and work out a new contract with additional years but less money in the first year. For example, a salary that starts at $29 million (and then declines each season) has Houston $20 million below the second apron. VanVleet eventually recoups the $44.9 million option that is declined, but over two seasons.
Because of possible extensions for young Rockets forwards Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, the second year for VanVleet is partially protected and the third season is a team option. In the unlikely scenario Houston declines the option and does not sign VanVleet, they would have the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception available.
Myles Turner
Indiana Pacers | Center
Free agent ranking: 6
Best free agent fit: Indiana
The deal I'd offer: Three-years, $90 million. (The third year of the contract increases to full if Turner is named All-Defensive first-team in 2026 or 2027.)
The Pacers and their longest-tenured player are in a unique situation.
Because Turner renegotiated and extended his contract in January 2023, he is not allowed to extend prior to June 30. (Both sides are allowed to negotiate a new contract starting after the NBA Finals.)
Indiana has not paid a luxury tax penalty since 2005-06. However, as both ESPN's Brian Windhorst and Charania reported, Indiana is willing to dip into the tax to sign their starting center. They are $20 million below the tax entering the offseason.
A contract that starts at $30 million and remains flat would accomplish two things:
Because of a change in the CBA this offseason, teams pay a less punitive tax penalty if they are up to $11.4 million over the tax. A contract that starts at $30 million costs Indiana only a $16 million penalty after their roster is filled out. The Turner signing also leaves them $7 million below the second apron.
There is concern that a Turner contract starting at $30 million could impact the Pacers' elite depth, as both Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin are extension-eligible this offseason. Mathurin is a restricted free agent next summer if a new deal is not reached.
The new contract would give Turner the 10th-highest salary among all NBA centers. Turner had 144 blocks this season, third most in the league. He is the only player with at least 150 3-pointers and at least 125 blocks.
Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls | Guard
Free agent ranking: 7
Best free agent fit: Chicago
The deal I'd offer: Five years, $125 million.
The $25 million average salary seems low, considering Giddey is coming off the most complete season of his career.
He joined Michael Jordan as the only Bulls players to average at least 10 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in a season. And since mid-February, Giddey averaged 22.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists. Giddey's six triple-doubles tied for the fourth most in a single season in franchise history.
Numbers aside, there is a realization that restricted free agency should give the Bulls a competitive advantage on the price to keep Giddey, especially with Brooklyn the only team that could sign the guard to a significant offer sheet.
"I think he fits really well here," Bulls executive vice president Arturas Karnisovas told reporters during his end-of-season media availability. "I hope to see him here for the next few years to come. I feel really good about Josh and his future here."
Jonathan Kuminga
Golden State Warriors | Forward
Free agent ranking: 9
Best free agent fits: Golden State, Brooklyn
The deal I'd offer: Three years, $81 million. (The final year is a player option.)
Projecting a new contract for Kuminga is like trying to master the Rubik's Cube.
Like Giddey, the 22-year-old is a restricted free agent and Golden State has leverage, considering the lack of available money teams have to offer in free agency.
However, unlike the Bulls guard, Kuminga's fourth year was a roller coaster. He went from coming off the bench to start the season, to an undefined role after the Jimmy Butler trade, to averaging 21 points in the Warriors' second-round loss to the Timberwolves.
As for his next contract, the only thing guaranteed is that Golden State will tender the forward a $7.9 million qualifying offer before June 29.
"I know how we can work with him better," GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. said after the Warriors' season ended. "But in terms of guessing how it's all going to play out or what the contract might look like or sign-and-trades and things like that, honestly, I'd be totally guessing at this point."
A contract that starts at $25 million gives Golden State the flexibility to fill out its roster and remain below the second apron.
Ty Jerome
Cleveland Cavaliers | Guard
Free agent ranking: 15
Best free agent fits: Cleveland, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Sacramento
The deal I'd offer: Four years, $40 million. (The final year is a team option.)
Jerome is one of the better backup guards in free agency and should see a considerable pay increase off his $2.6 million salary in Cleveland last season.
After playing only two games last season, Jerome finished second in Sixth Man voting in 2024-25. Finally healthy, Jerome played 70 games, averaging career highs in points (12.3), field goal percentage (52%) and 3-point percentage (43%). Cleveland was plus-11 points per 100 possessions with Jerome on the court during the regular season.
Re-signing in Cleveland should be the obvious choice, considering starter Darius Garland could miss the start of the regular season after toe surgery and the Cavaliers can offer up to a four-year, $64 million contract, the maximum of any team outside of Brooklyn.
However, Cleveland is not only a luxury tax team for the first time since 2018 but also $13 million over the second apron. A starting salary of $14 million adds an additional $80 million in tax penalties and puts Cleveland further over the second apron. President of basketball operations Koby Altman told the media after the season that owner Dan Gilbert has given the front office "no restrictions of going into the tax."
Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte and Sacramento all have a void at starting or backup point guard and have the full $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception available to offer. A starting salary of $10 million is comparable to the extension T.J. McConnell signed with the Pacers last season.
Naz Reid
Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward
Free agent ranking: 17
Best free agent fits: Minnesota, Detroit
The deal I'd offer: Three years, $57 million. (The final year is a player option.)
Because of the Timberwolves' finances and the majority of other teams with no more than $14.1 million to spend in free agency, Reid's next contract is difficult to project despite the former Sixth Man of the Year having his best season.
Reid averaged a career high in points (14.2), rebounds (6.0) and assists and ranked second among reserves in points during the 2025 postseason. He finished first in the 2024 postseason.
By declining the $15 million player option and signing a three-year, $57 million contract with the Timberwolves or a team that has cap space, Reid gets a slight increase in salary. More importantly, he has the option to extend or become a free agent in 2027.
The Pistons, meanwhile, could create up to $17 million in cap space (or possibly more with a trade) but at the expense of free agents Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder and Malik Beasley.
Minnesota and Reid could reach an extension before the start of free agency or he could opt in to his contract and then extend in July. Reid is allowed to sign a four-year, $87.2 million extension starting on June 27. The $15 million player option for next season is replaced with a starting salary of $19 million. Reid could also opt in and then sign a four-year, $94.2 million extension. The $21 million salary in the first year starts in 2026-27.
Bobby Portis
Milwaukee Bucks | Forward
Free agent ranking: NR
Best free agent fits: Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit
The deal I'd offer: Three years, $54 million.
At the very least, Portis will get an increase from his $13.4 million player option.
However, similar to Reid, Portis' market consists of signing (or extending) with his current team or targeting teams with the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception.
His next contract in Milwaukee could be tied to free agent center Brook Lopez. If Lopez elects to sign elsewhere, the Bucks have the flexibility to give Portis a raise and also use their full non-tax midlevel exception to bring back Gary Trent Jr. or sign a starting point guard to replace the injured Damian Lillard.