There are plenty of reasons behind the Indiana Pacers' 3-1 series lead over the New York Knicks heading into Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals Thursday. One stands above the rest:
In a matchup featuring All-NBA point guards Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton, there has been no question about which of the two has been more impactful. (Hint: It's the guy who had one of the most impressive offensive performances in playoff history in a victory that moved the Pacers one win from their first Finals since 2000.)
"His ability to play both on and off the ball is so unique," a Western Conference executive said of Haliburton, who in Game 4 became the first player in playoff history with 30 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds and zero turnovers since turnovers were first tracked in 1977-78.
"It allows him to be Steph Curry-esque."
Haliburton has a way to go to match the myriad accomplishments Curry has stacked up, including two MVPs, four titles and more 3-pointers than any player in league history. But whenever Curry is on the floor, defenses are constantly being stressed by the threat he poses from anywhere on the court.
Haliburton at the controls of this Pacers offense often leaves defenses with a similarly tall task. That's in part because Haliburton, unlike how Brunson and the Knicks' offense operates, is the leader of what often is an equal opportunity offensive engine.
"[Haliburton is] throwing it ahead, playing out of dribble handoffs, running pick-and-rolls, so he gets everyone involved," a Western Conference scout said. "So [Aaron] Nesmith is throwing himself into defense because he knows he's going to get touches and shots.
"I didn't think [Haliburton] had this jump in him. He's shown so much more just because he makes his teammates better. Those guys have all been put in positions to succeed. All these guys are the best versions of themselves now because they have been instilled with confidence and optimized."
Coaches, scouts and executives universally praised Brunson in this series. But his gaudy individual numbers -- 33.3 points and 5.5 assists on 48% shooting -- are somewhat overshadowed by four turnovers per game, nearly three times as many as Haliburton.
For as much as the Knicks have relied on the NBA's Clutch Player of the Year this season, that game plan makes the Knicks a bit easier to prepare for throughout a seven-game series.
"I love Brunson. But I'm not sure you can win with a ball-dominant player like him," the West executive said.
"There's a ceiling for how far he can take you because you have to play the way he plays," the scout said. "Those guys need a specific player next to them."
That was one takeaway that coaches, scouts and executives gave ESPN this week about these exciting Eastern Conference finals. Here are a few more, plus an early look at the Oklahoma City Thunder juggernaut facing whichever East team reaches the NBA Finals.
The Pacers give you nowhere to attack
Over the course of an 82-game regular season, the most successful game plan is leveraging your individual strengths to overwhelm your opponent. With teams lacking the preparation time to drill down on a specific opponent because of the never-ending grind of the schedule, leaning into what works is often enough to stack up plenty of regular-season victories.
The playoffs turn that theory on its head. Instead, winning often depends on minimizing weaknesses and not giving your opponent any lineup holes to exploit.
And, beyond Haliburton's individual brilliance, it has been his supporting cast that repeatedly came up in conversations about the Pacers, and particularly with their starting unit: Indiana has surrounded its star with four players -- Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner -- all above-average defenders who can space the floor.
"The Pacers, they're still surprising me," a scout said. "Not that they've had success, but how are they doing this? They can come at you in so many different ways and they're so solid everywhere.
"They don't have any weaknesses."
One thing that's been particularly evident during this playoff run, as Indiana has dispatched the Milwaukee Bucks, the Cleveland Cavaliers and are on the verge of doing the same to the Knicks, is that the Pacers' Haliburton-led five-out spacing -- and particularly shooting threats at power forward (Siakam) and at center (Turner) -- could be bending Eastern Conference defenses to its will for years.
"Assuming they bring back Myles, they're such a complete team," an assistant coach said. "And they have size and physicality at every position. And it's sustainable because of the deals they have everyone signed to."
Every starter besides Turner is under contract for at least the next two seasons, and the team has control over most of its second unit.
New York's biggest weakness has been exploited
Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau shares his message to his team after losing to the Pacers in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals.
While this series obviously would look different if the Knicks hadn't suffered their historic collapse in Game 1, what's been inarguable is that the combination of Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns has been a weakness the Pacers have been able to repeatedly attack. Brunson, per GeniusIQ tracking, was the defender on 25 screens in New York's Game 4 loss when Haliburton was the ball handler -- the most on-ball screens defended by a player against Haliburton in a playoff game in his career.
As great of a season as Brunson has had, it's also inarguable that New York's only two big runs in the fourth quarter in this series -- in Games 1 and 3 -- came with Brunson on the bench, which meant that the combination of him and Towns was not out there together, giving Haliburton and the Pacers an obvious target in pick-and-roll actions.
Pacers coach Rick Carlisle hinted as much after Game 3, saying that New York's "better defensive players" were on the court.
"If you're going to play a shooting five [in Turner] and you're going to have Towns and Brunson out there together," an assistant coach said, "it's going to be tough."
New York has two All-NBA players in Brunson and Towns, a trio of good wing players in Hart, Anunoby and Bridges around them and a couple of good reserves in Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson, who entered the starting lineup for Hart beginning with Game 3.
But the specific strengths and weaknesses of this Knicks roster have struggled to keep up with the balance that Indiana plays with, and that has put New York in the position it finds itself in.
"They've overachieved," an executive said of the Knicks. "I never loved their team. I think there's a ceiling with Brunson [and] they overpaid for Mikal [in the trade last summer]. OG has been awesome, but he's limited in what he can do.
"They're the better collection of parts, but it fits better for Indy and the style of play works better."
Trouble awaits out West
Whether New York can pull off a miracle 3-1 comeback or Indiana closes it out, a Herculean task awaits either team: Slow down the 68-win Thunder, who absolutely dismantled the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night to reach the NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history and the first time since 2012.
Back then, it appeared to be the first of many Finals trips for OKC behind the trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. That alone should provide some caution about writing in the Thunder as the favorite for the next several years in the West. But that's about the only reason to feel that way after watching one of the league's youngest teams continually improve as the playoffs have progressed.
"Game 4 sent the biggest message to the rest of the league," a scout said of Oklahoma City's bounce-back win in Minnesota on Monday night. "I saw it and I'm scared [for the future]. Because they're good, and they're going to be. That was the moment where it was like, "OK, they're good."
The other reason, in the eyes of rival scouts and executives, was that Oklahoma City not only survived a seven-game series against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, but it did so after escaping Game 5 via a furious fourth-quarter rally.
"I expect them to win it all now," another scout said. "There's been some doubt because of the normal stuff about young teams having to 'go through it.' But especially once they got through Denver, and took down the best player on the planet, now you expect them to figure it out."