Nearly a month after the 2025 NBA playoffs began, four teams -- the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves -- are an obstacle away from reaching the Finals.
The Pacers, who toppled the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, upset the dominant Cleveland Cavaliers to make way for their second consecutive conference finals berth. They'll tip off the East finals against the Knicks on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET, TNT) at Madison Square Garden, where New York delivered its final dagger to the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics. The team will continue its attempt to bring the Empire State its first conference title since 2000.
In the West, the Thunder sunk the Denver Nuggets in seven games after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in Round 1. Waiting for them Tuesday are the Timberwolves (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT), who took down the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games each.
With a shot at the Larry O'Brien Trophy just a round away, our NBA experts break down how each team got here, what we are hearing about each series and what to expect from the four champion hopefuls.
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Eastern Conference
(3) New York Knicks vs. (4) Indiana Pacers
How did the Pacers get here?
The Pacers are back in the conference finals for the second consecutive season, but the path has not always been linear. Last year's conference finals run was still met with questions after a rash of injuries in the East cleared the field for Indiana to become one of the NBA's final four before Boston won in a sweep.
The Pacers followed that up with a slow start to the season -- they were 16-18 on Jan. 1 -- but since then, they have been one of the best teams in the NBA. Indiana is 42-16 since the beginning of the calendar year, including the postseason, advancing past Milwaukee in the first round before upsetting 64-win Cleveland despite not being favored in any game during the second round. The Pacers again faced opponents hampered by significant injuries -- both the Bucks and the Cavs had All-Stars sit out games in their series, including Damian Lillard, Darius Garland and newly minted Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley -- and the Pacers took care of business to put away both teams in five games.
Tyrese Haliburton has already hit two winning shots in the postseason and is averaging 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and a playoff-high 9.3 assists, which powers Indiana's relentless offense. It's what led the Pacers to a Game 7 win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers have used the confidence from last season to fuel them for another deep postseason run. -- Jamal Collier
How did the Knicks get here?
New York's path to the conference finals has been somewhat remarkable. The Knicks were undoubtedly good during the regular season, but far from dominant, with a middling 15-13 record after the All-Star break. They generally beat the teams they were supposed to but logged a 15-23 mark against clubs with winning records -- the worst, by far, of the NBA teams to earn home-court advantage for the postseason's first round.
Even more eye-popping: New York was winless in 10 games against the league's three 60-win teams. The Knicks were 0-8 against the top-seeded Cavs and second-seeded Celtics, marking the first No. 3 seed to go winless against the top two teams in its conference since the current playoff format came into play in 1984, per the Elias Sports Bureau. (It's also noteworthy that most of those eight games weren't even competitive.)
But between the Knicks' never-say-die mentality that propelled them to begin the Boston series, and backup center Mitchell Robinson hitting his stride and wreaking havoc on the glass for two series in a row after sitting out the first 60 games of the regular season, this relatively new-look club appears to be jelling at just the right time. It's something the team probably will need to compete with a Pacers squad that has been playing like one of the league's best for months now. -- Chris Herring
Jalen Brunson knocks down the 3-pointer and waves goodbye to the Celtics' bench.
What we're hearing on the series
In talking with sources about this series, several mentioned the same thing: Styles make series. The team that controls the style in which this series is played probably will win it and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in more than a generation.
"These are two teams built completely differently," one scout said. "[New York] is top-heavy, and has leaned in that direction with its moves [trading for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns last summer] at the expense of its depth. And [Indiana] is built more holistically, and relies on that depth to wear you down."
New York, with a methodical offense led by Jalen Brunson, is going to want the game to be a half-court rock fight. Indiana, on the other hand, might be the most successful team at maintaining a fast-break mentality in the playoffs, and will rely on that to wear down the Knicks as the series progresses. That's the formula we have seen the Pacers deploy over the past two playoff runs across their four series wins, and the same thing will apply in this one.
The two teams are fairly evenly matched across the board. New York has Bridges to defend Haliburton, and OG Anunoby to defend Pascal Siakam. Towns and Myles Turner are like-for-like options in the middle. But last year, Andrew Nembhard -- a very good defensive guard -- couldn't handle Brunson in the conference semifinals. That will need to change for Indiana to advance.
"Can he do a better job on Brunson?" another scout said. "That could decide the series."
Another scout said a matchup to watch will be whether Robinson can have a similar impact to what he did against the Boston Celtics, when he dominated the paint, or if the Pacers can get out and run and mitigate his influence. Robinson going up against Thomas Bryant when the second units are on the court is a matchup that, heading into the series, feels as if it should go in New York's favor. -- Tim Bontemps
Will New York's starting lineup be able to keep pace with Indiana's?
Indiana boasts the best high-volume lineup in the playoffs: Haliburton, Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Siakam and Turner have a plus-22.1 net rating after posting a plus-11.9 in the regular season. But the Knicks' starting five has been outscored in the playoffs, with a minus-4.7 net rating, after a mere plus-3.3 mark in the regular season.
In other words, the Pacers' starting and closing lineup has absolutely blitzed opponents, allowing Indiana to rack up big leads and close strong; that group is athletic and balanced, with a strong identity. But New York has often fallen behind in these playoffs, necessitating late comebacks, because its talented starting lineup hasn't meshed as cohesively as expected. The Knicks' five has played well in spurts, but the Pacers' has been much more consistent throughout the season when healthy. That difference could give Indiana the advantage in this series, because at some point, New York's habit of spotting their opponents double-digit leads will come back to haunt them. -- Zach Kram
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
How did the Timberwolves get here?
The Wolves are in back-to-back conference finals for the first time in franchise history, but they aren't approaching their matchup with the Thunder as if they've arrived.
"Nobody expected us to beat the Lakers, no one expected us to beat the Warriors," Minnesota guard Donte DiVincenzo said after his team bounced Golden State in the second round. "We know that no one is going to pick us [against the Thunder], and we're fine with that."
The Wolves embraced their underdog status by starting the postseason on the road and beating the tails off the Lakers in Game 1, then gutting out three more close wins to advance in five games. They got a break when Stephen Curry was sidelined after Game 1 of the conference semifinals and dominated the Warriors from the second half of Game 4 through the end of Game 5 to set up a showdown with the Thunder.
Though Minnesota finished the regular season going 17-4 and has dominated the postseason thus far, it took the Wolves some time to materialize as a contender. They started off 8-10 and were just 22-21 more than halfway through the season before the pieces truly fit. DiVincenzo and Julius Randle are the new characters in their story, acquired in a training camp trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks. DiVincenzo has provided a two-way punch off the bench and the 30-year-old Randle has played the best basketball of his career this postseason, averaging 23.9 points on 50.9% shooting with 5.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists.
And the Wolves' constants remain 23-year-old superstar Anthony Edwards, defensive stalwarts Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, and the steady leadership of veteran point guard Mike Conley and coach Chris Finch. Edwards, who has been challenged by Finch to improve his decision-making as the team relies on him more and more to run the offense, continues to set the tone for the group with his infectious confidence. As such, he let everyone know that he wants more than just a conference appearance this time.
"There is no satisfaction," Edwards said after finishing off the Warriors. "We haven't [done] anything yet." -- Dave McMenamin
How did the Thunder get here?
Oklahoma City's Game 7 rout of the Nuggets was an extreme version of the Thunder's journey to this point. The recipe for dominance consists of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's efficient brilliance, Jalen Williams serving as his versatile sidekick and a swarming, smothering defense creating all kinds of havoc.
That's how the Thunder set a franchise record with 68 wins during the regular season and an NBA record for point differential with an average margin of plus-12.9 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander probably will be awarded his first MVP trophy next week in large part because he averaged a league-leading 32.7 points on 63.7% true shooting, which were both career bests. He has struggled by his standards during the postseason, averaging 29.0 points on 58.6% true shooting, but Gilgeous-Alexander rose to the occasion when the Thunder really needed it in the second round. After Denver took a 2-1 series lead, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.8 points on 65.6% true shooting in the final four games, making a series of clutch shots to close out Games 4 and 5.
Williams had a great Game 7 -- 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting and seven assists -- to finish an underwhelming offensive series. He was only 10-of-43 from the field in the previous three games, including 3-of-16 in the Game 6 loss. He was a first-time All-Star this season, and Oklahoma City will need him to perform at that level in the West finals.
Fast breaks tend to fuel Williams, who is spectacular in the open court. A lot of his finishes in Game 7 started with defensive stops, as the Thunder converted 23 Nuggets turnovers into 37 points. Oklahoma City didn't just have the NBA's stingiest defense by a significant margin this season. Its defense often is its best offense. The Thunder led the league in turnovers forced (17.0) and points off of turnovers (21.8) during the regular season. Those numbers have increased -- 18.3 turnovers converted into 24.7 points -- during the run to the conference finals. -- Tim MacMahon
Alan Hahn breaks down why the Thunder's comeback win in Game 7 against the Nuggets was a coming-of-age moment.
What we're hearing on the series
Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league all season. It won 68 games, has fantastic versatility at both ends and the likely league MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander. But that hasn't stopped scouts from thinking the Thunder could fall short of their first Finals trip since 2012 at the hands of a Minnesota team that has won its first two series in five games each.
"That will be a fun as hell series," one scout said. "Minnesota is big and long, and comes at you in different ways.
"Like every other young team, OKC has to earn it, and getting through [Nikola] Jokic certainly is part of taking that next step."
Minnesota's size and strength across the board -- including being big at the guard spots and rotating through Naz Reid, Randle and Gobert in the paint -- matches up pretty well with Oklahoma City's desire to make every game a rough and tumble one, which has been critical to the Thunder's defensive identity this season.
But the reason the OKC needed to go the distance with Denver was because its offense was hot and cold, particularly from the outside. That especially was the case for Williams, who followed up a 33-point performance in Game 3 by going a combined 10-for-43 in Games 4, 5 and 6 as Oklahoma City's second perimeter scoring threat alongside Gilgeous-Alexander.
"Oklahoma City has way more explosive-night capability," another scout said. "I thought they would have more success than they have had against Denver offensively.
"I think OKC has the best roster in the NBA, but we don't know if guys two through eight can make enough shots. If they can, they win in a rout. But, if they don't, it's a struggle." -- Bontemps
Will the Wolves win a game of zones?
The Thunder's uneven outside shooting compelled the Nuggets to use heavy zone defense in their series. In fact, the 55 zone possessions Denver played in Game 4 tied the most by a team in any game across the regular season and playoffs, per GeniusIQ tracking.
Based on that tracking, it shows Oklahoma City averaged just 1.04 points per possession against zone defense over the first six games of the series as compared to 1.07 against the Nuggets' traditional man-to-man. The Thunder seemed to figure things out in their Game 7 blowout, but that came against a compromised Denver team with Aaron Gordon playing through a hamstring strain.
As a result, we'll undoubtedly see Minnesota use zones after having nearly a week off to prepare for this series. The Timberwolves played 52 zone possessions in four head-to-head meetings with Oklahoma City during the regular season, according to GeniusIQ, easily their most against any opponent.
Minnesota coach Chris Finch leaned into the zone defense in back-to-back games against OKC coming out of the All-Star break. The zone helped the Timberwolves erase a 22-point Oklahoma City lead in the fourth quarter of the second game, which Minnesota won in overtime. Per GeniusIQ, the Thunder totaled only seven points on 17 possessions against the zone in the final period and OT. -- Kevin Pelton