We're in the final weeks of the 2024-25 NBA regular season, and teams are zeroing in on the postseason. But there are plenty of games left before the regular season ends April 13.
Though the Oklahoma City Thunder have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the race for the West's No. 2 seed is tight. Meanwhile in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and New York Knicks have already secured playoff spots.
From the contract incentives to the tank race for the No. 1 pick in the draft, our NBA insiders Brian Windhorst, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon, Zach Kram and Jamal Collier break down what we should be watching in the final weeks of the regular season.
Which player's contract incentives should we be watching?
Fifty-three players, including Kevin Durant, Derrick White, Aaron Gordon and Dejounte Murray, had incentives in their contracts before the season. The incentives ranged from being selected for the All-Star Game (Durant) to 3-pointers made in a season (White). Durant, White and Jae'Sean Tate (team wins) have reached the criteria and will earn a combined $2 million. White also picked up an extra $500,000 for playing in at least 70 games.
As for the rest of the list, ESPN projects only five players -- Dillon Brooks, Jonathan Isaac, Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul and Julius Randle -- are on pace to earn regular-season bonuses.
Brooks will earn $1 million when the Houston Rockets clinch a playoff spot. Johnson will pick up $562,000 if his true shooting percentage remains above 60% -- he is shooting 63.2%. Meanwhile, Paul is one win from $262,000. Paul also has two bonuses (net rating and true shooting) that he is on pace to reach. Both will net the guard an additional $523,000. Randle's $1.4 million bonus is dependent on the Timberwolves reaching the first round. They are in the play-in but only a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors for the No. 6 seed.
Isaac's bonus -- an extra $2.6 million for appearing in 70 regular-season games for the Orlando Magic -- was the most unlikely to happen before the season. The forward has dealt with injuries throughout his career and played only 69 games the past two seasons. He has played in 65 games this season, on pace to play his most since 2018-19. -- Bobby Marks
Which playoff-contending team has the most on the line this postseason?
Memphis has zoomed up the list after it fired Taylor Jenkins with less than three weeks left in the season, bringing two big things into play.
First, the Grizzlies are taking a risk by handing the team to interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, a high-intensity and system-devoted coach who has had success overseas but doesn't have NBA playoff experience. Leaning into this is fascinating and could be inspired by general manager Zach Kleiman, who believes in Iisalo's high-tempo, high-movement offense that bucks NBA norms. In a month, perhaps the clarity from this move -- Jenkins had been moving away from an aggressive offensive style in recent weeks as the Grizzlies floundered -- propels Memphis into a postseason run.
Second, how do the team's stars feel about this direction? This season, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have had their minutes, shots and points decrease. The Grizzlies' offensive efficiency has improved season over season. But questions regarding how Morant, who is eligible to sign a contract extension this summer, feels about the changes prompted some rumors about his future in Memphis and led Kleiman to rebuke that noise after the trade deadline in February.
The bottom line is the Grizzlies have underachieved. They were the No. 2 seed in the West after great regular seasons in 2021-22 and 2022-23 but failed to reach the conference finals, with Morant's off-court issues undoubtedly contributing. Last season was derailed by unrelenting injuries and Morant's suspension. Now, after being the No. 2 seed again in early February, the Grizzlies have been dropping in the standings and lost all momentum as the playoffs approach. At some point, they need to prove it when it matters. -- Brian Windhorst
Which playoff positioning should we be watching closest in the East?
Keep an eye on the three-way battle for the fourth through sixth seeds involving the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks. This race has gotten interesting after the Bucks announced Damian Lillard is out indefinitely because of blood clots in his right calf. Though ESPN reported there is optimism Lillard will play again this season, the Bucks will be without their star guard for an extended stretch and have already dropped six of their past 10 games, falling to No. 6.
Indiana, meanwhile, has been one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star break, going 13-8, while Tyrese Haliburton looks like an All-NBA player again. And then there are the surging Pistons, who are fighting to host a first-round matchup in their first playoff appearance since 2019. If the Bucks can't climb out of the No. 6 seed, they will likely meet the Knicks in a star-studded first-round matchup where the winner of that series is likely to face the Celtics in the second round. Meanwhile, the Cavs would have a much clearer path to the conference finals with two less-experienced teams in their way in a potential second-round series. -- Jamal Collier
Which of the tanking teams needs Cooper Flagg the most?
In each of the past two seasons, the Utah Jazz remained competitive for more than half of their schedule before tanking at the end of the season. As a result, they picked ninth and 10th, respectively, in the past two drafts and didn't land a franchise cornerstone. So this season, they started to tank early -- and were fined for violating the league's player participation policy -- and now they're almost guaranteed to have the best lottery odds.
Utah has a greater need for Flagg than any of the other teams jostling for a superior lottery position. The Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets are still early in their rebuilds, while the Charlotte Hornets already have a potential dynamic duo in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Plus, the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers should be competitive again next season with better health. But the Jazz traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert three years ago, and they're still stuck without a young star to build around. Flagg would fill that void. And though the Duke freshman would be a great fit for any team in the lottery, he'd look particularly potent in Utah, forming a dominant defensive front line with Walker Kessler and partnering with another big, skilled forward in Lauri Markkanen. -- Zach Kram
OKC is 13½ games ahead in the West. Who locks up the No. 2 seed?
The West's second seed is Houston's to lose at this point, as unlikely as that seemed entering the season. The Rockets have a two-game cushion over the Nuggets, and the tiebreaker between those teams will be decided on the final day of the regular season in Houston.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers are within striking distance if the Rockets fade down the stretch, sitting 4½ and 3½ games back in the standings, respectively. Two of the Rockets' remaining eight games are on the road against the Lakers. -- Tim MacMahon
Which players should we be watching to hit the 65-game criteria?
There's no need to worry about stars such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Anthony Edwards being ineligible for postseason honors. All three players have met the 65-game criteria. Gilgeous-Alexander is eligible to be named MVP and Jackson has qualified to sign up to a five-year, $345 million super max extension if he is named All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year. However, a group of previous award winners is short of the criteria. The list includes Nikola Jokic (64), Evan Mobley (64), LeBron James (63), Jalen Brunson (61), Stephen Curry (62), Giannis Antetokounmpo (62), Kevin Durant (62), Domantas Sabonis (61), Jaylen Brown (59) and Draymond Green (59). A player has to appear in at least 20 minutes or more for the game to count, and they are allowed two games between 15 to 20 minutes. -- Marks