A Dallas Mavericks team that has been hit hard by injuries since a 19-10 start suffered its biggest medical loss of the season Tuesday, when ESPN's Shams Charania reported that star guard Kyrie Irving had been diagnosed with an ACL tear stemming from his injury early in Monday's loss to the Sacramento Kings.
Without Luka Doncic, traded to the Los Angeles Lakers a little over a month ago, or the All-Star acquired for him (Anthony Davis, sidelined by an adductor strain), the Mavericks depended heavily on Irving to keep their offense afloat. Dallas is also missing centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II and dealing with a shorter-term injury to forward P.J. Washington, meaning Irving and Klay Thompson were the team's only regular starters available Monday.
The absence of Irving will linger into the 2025-26 season, causing problems for a team that was hoping to win a championship with Davis after reaching the 2024 NBA Finals led by the duo of Doncic and Irving.
For a team that entered this season with title hopes, the Mavs' best path to even reaching the postseason is now likely through the Western Conference play-in tournament. But injury woes leave them vulnerable to missing out altogether. The good news? The 10th-place Mavericks have a 3.5-game cushion for the final play-in spot ahead of teams dealing with their own issues. The Phoenix Suns are navigating a stormy season with Kevin Durant at the center of trade talk, while the San Antonio Spurs had their own injury setback with Victor Wembanyama out for the rest of the campaign due to deep vein thrombosis.
Let's dive into what is next for the Mavericks and break down what to expect from the West play-in race -- which now suddenly includes a former bottom-five team that has turned into one of the hottest in the league.
How good is Dallas without Kyrie?
In 10 games this season with neither Doncic nor Irving, the Mavericks have gone 3-7 with a minus-8.5 point differential. That's inflated by a 43-point loss to the league-leading Cleveland Cavaliers immediately after the shocking Doncic trade, but Dallas has been outscored by a combined 42 points in nine other games without both guards. The Mavericks have predictably tightened defensively with Irving off the court, but struggled to score. Dallas' offensive rating drops by more than eight points per 100 possessions without him, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
The Mavericks built around the idea of having either Doncic or Irving on the court at all times, which leaves the team with limited ballhandling and playmaking elsewhere on the roster. Spencer Dinwiddie now steps into a critical role as Dallas' primary point guard, but he isn't nearly the efficient scorer Doncic and Irving are.
Now would be an ideal time for third-year guard Jaden Hardy to take a larger role. Hardy averages 19 points per 36 minutes and is Dallas' most explosive athlete on the perimeter, but has seen his playing time fluctuate and left Monday's game because of an ankle injury. That could leave the Mavericks relying on two-way player Brandon Williams as their backup point guard in the short term. Worse yet, Dallas can't fill its open 15th roster spot until the final week of the season because the team is too close to a hard cap at the NBA's lower luxury-tax apron triggered by offseason moves.
The glimmer of hope for Mavericks fans is that Davis could return soon from the adductor strain he suffered in his Dallas debut, giving the team more scoring punch. Davis is scheduled for a reevaluation of his recovery later this week. With Davis filling the massive hole at center created by injuries to both Gafford and Lively, the Mavericks can hope to reorient around defense and at least play .500 ball down the stretch.
Looking ahead, Dallas' surplus of quality big men could lead to difficult offseason choices. Recovery from ACL tears has typically required at least nine months for NBA players, and often more like a full year, so Irving can't realistically be expected back for the start of the 2025-26 season. With that in mind, and the team unlikely to have access to its midlevel exception to add free agents for more than the minimum salary, the Mavericks might need to consider dealing one of their centers for a ballhandler to supplement Irving.
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One play-in race becomes two
Monday night's matchup against the Kings was crucial because both Dallas and Sacramento are part of a five-team logjam from sixth to 10th in the West standings with just a game and a half separation from top to bottom. Now, that has essentially changed to a four-team race for the last guaranteed playoff spot, as well as another competition for the final play-in position.
Let's start at the top of this pack. The Golden State Warriors, in sixth and 8-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, are the clear favorite to avoid the play-in (49% of simulations) with the Minnesota Timberwolves (33%) and LA Clippers (23%) still very much in the mix. The Kings, projected for nearly two wins fewer than any of those teams, appear headed for ninth.
That leaves the race for 10th place as one to watch. Historically, finishing as the lowest seed in the play-in hasn't been much of a reward. The No. 10 team has yet to win two road games and reach the playoffs in four years of the current play-in tournament format, and just two of eight teams that finished 10th have avoided elimination in their opening play-in game. Already, the Mavericks were the most likely of the five teams to finish 10th in projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) because of their other injuries. Without Irving, they now finish in the top six in less than 1% of simulations.
There's another two games of separation in the projections between Sacramento and Dallas, creating a potential opening for a team to jump the Mavericks and finish 10th in the West. Fortunately for Dallas, the two likeliest contenders -- the Suns and Spurs -- appear incapable of making that kind of a run.
The Suns, three games over .500 at the start of February, have collapsed as the Durant trade rumors ramped up ahead of the Feb. 6 deadline. Phoenix is 4-11 since the start of February and 2-8 over the past 10 games. The Suns still reach the play-in in 20% of BPI simulations, but the projections can't account for Phoenix's execrable vibes.
Meanwhile, Wembanyama's absence has slowed San Antonio's play-in push. The Spurs are 2-5 since he was sidelined during the All-Star break, including a pair of road losses to the injury-plagued New Orleans Pelicans. Because of Wembanyama's importance, BPI rates San Antonio the weakest of the teams in the play-in mix based on current personnel.
Can Portland make a run?
The Blazers are the one team outside the West play-in spots trending in a positive direction. After a 13-28 start, Portland has gone 15-6 over the past 21 games to join the play-in race. The BPI projection rates the current version of the Blazers better than either the Mavericks or the Spurs --but still shows the team reaching the play-in just 8% of simulations.
There are two obstacles to Portland reaching the postseason for the first time since 2021. First, the Blazers have a lot of ground to make up in the standings. Not only are they four games back of Dallas, but the Mavericks also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series 3-1. Portland would have to win five more games than Dallas out of the final 20 to surpass the Mavericks.
Second, the Blazers face a more difficult schedule down the stretch. Only Phoenix has a harder remaining schedule in the entire league than Portland, per BPI, while the difficulty of Dallas' final stretch ranks near the middle. The Blazers still have four remaining games against the league's top three teams, including this week's trips to Boston and Oklahoma City to close out a road trip they've started 4-1. If Portland can stay in the mix through the end of March, the Blazers' April schedule gets easier.
Portland plays five below-.500 teams to start the month before finishing at home with the Warriors and the Lakers, who could be locked into their playoff positions by the final weekend. Even entertaining the possibility of the Blazers reaching the postseason is remarkable given how directionless they appeared at midseason. Portland's development, catalyzed by young forwards Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara and dramatic progress from Scoot Henderson in his second season, is encouraging for the future.