A new year means fresh starts, and for some teams, that means a reset for the second half of the NBA season. For others, such as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, it means more opportunities to steadily climb toward the postseason.
In 2024, the Milwaukee Bucks were crowned NBA Cup champions, the Cleveland Cavaliers went on an unexpected 15-0 start to the season and rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama came out even stronger in Year 2 for the San Antonio Spurs. What will 2025 have in store for the league?
Can the struggling Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers make up ground? Will there be a surprise breakout star? And which coach is on the hot seat after the Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown on Dec. 27?
Our NBA insiders answer some of the biggest questions heading into the new year.
Which struggling contender is poised for a second-half surge?
Ohm Youngmisuk: The Bucks might be slightly above .500 after an inconsistent start to the season. But if they can get healthy -- Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dealing with an illness, Damian Lillard recently returned from a four-game absence and Khris Middleton is still working his way back to form -- they certainly can move up the Eastern Conference. Their win in the NBA Cup championship shows their potential. The Bucks could also be a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, hoping to keep their franchise star as happy as possible.
Jamal Collier: The Timberwolves' assumption that it could trade away star Karl-Anthony Towns and remain at the top of the West has proven false. But with the current roster, the Wolves are better than the .500 record they compiled for most of the first two months of the season. Minnesota could surge into the top six, but it appears likely the Wolves will fall short of a higher seed in their first-round matchup.
Chris Herring: Even after their struggles and inability to stay healthy over the first two months, the Sixers are the clear answer here -- especially after their Christmas Day victory over the Celtics. Joel Embiid and Paul George are back in the lineup, and the club has begun to develop a rhythm over the past month. The Sixers also have one of the league's easiest schedules the rest of the way, which should allow them to stack wins and build confidence.
Dave McMenamin: After their conference finals berth and Anthony Edwards seemingly poised to take over the league based on how Team USA summers have boosted budding stars in the past, the Wolves' No. 8 spot in the West has been a bit of a head-scratcher. There are some signs of life, winning nine out of their past 13 games, and Edwards has shown he is willing to lead an uncomfortable conversation for the good of the team. Plus, now that the initial shock from the swap with the New York Knicks has worn off, look for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo to contribute more consistently down the stretch.
Tim MacMahon: There's no doubt that the 76ers will surge in the second half of the season, but as of now, they don't qualify as a contender. Those were the expectations after a perfectly executed summer in which Philadelphia recruited Paul George as a free agent and awarded Tyrese Maxey a maximum contract. On paper, it's the best team in the Joel Embiid era. Hopefully, the worst of the Sixers' medical drama is done, but their lack of season-long, on-court cohesion will hinder the squad from advancing further than the second round of the playoffs.
The breakout player for 2025 is___?
Youngmisuk: Everyone has been waiting to see what will happen when Wembanyama begins to figure things out. The Spurs' phenom has increased his scoring each month this season and averaged 28.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 4.5 blocks while making 38.9% of his 3s in December. He also scored 50 points in a game in November and had two 42-point performances in December. If the Spurs can stick around in the West play-in conversation, Wembanyama will play meaningful games and get valuable experience.
Collier: Paolo Banchero looked ready to take his game to the next level at the start of the season before an oblique injury derailed his momentum in October, but he is ramping up toward a return soon. Look for Banchero to pick up where he left off and lead the up-and-coming Magic into the postseason, where the 2022 No. 1 pick can cement himself as one of the league's young stars.
Herring: DiVincenzo has played much better in recent weeks, and finally seems to be finding his footing with Minnesota. He averaged almost 17 points on 48% shooting from 3-point range over his past six games after an ugly start to his tenure with the Wolves. He started flourishing with the Knicks around this time last season, eventually finishing with the third-most triples in the league.
McMenamin: Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young has already been touting Jalen Johnson's All-Star credentials and with good reason. The fourth-year forward out of Duke impacts the game in so many ways, averaging 19.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.1 steals for an Atlanta team that went 8-4 in December. Plus, only 4.2 of his 15.5 field goal attempts per game come from beyond the 3-point arc, making the 6-foot-8 slasher's game even more exciting in the paint and above the rim.
MacMahon: Wembanyama is already a superstar, but he's in the early stages of his development, especially on the offensive end. He just had the best month of his career, averaging 28.6 points on 62.5% true shooting. That's just a hint of what's on the horizon for one of the most uniquely talented players to step foot on the hardwood. With the help of future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul, Wembanyama is only beginning to harness his incredible gifts.
Which newcomer contender is best positioned for a deep postseason run?
Youngmisuk: The Cavaliers have the league's best record heading into the new year and they look poised for a deep run in the East. They look like they have everything they need: a prolific star scorer, a high-scoring backcourt, incredible size and length, veteran shooters and defense. Donovan Mitchell has proven he can get hot in the playoffs when healthy. Though all the talk entering the season revolved around the Celtics, Knicks and Sixers, the Cavs are building a cushion atop the East standings and have shown little signs of slowing down.
Collier: I'll stick with the Orlando Magic. They have one of the best defenses in the league (No. 3) and have been one of the toughest teams this season, despite Banchero's injury. Orlando made it to the first round of the playoffs last season, giving the Magic valuable postseason experience that will make them a tough matchup in the East. Cleveland, which beat Orlando in a seven-game first-round series last year, might not be so eager to see Orlando for a second straight postseason.
Herring: The Houston Rockets still have some offensive issues but feature a stout defense (No. 2) and could make postseason noise. Ime Udoka's group has a firm identity and enviable versatility to make life difficult for opposing offenses. And even if there are offensive droughts, there's enough of an inside-out game between center Alperen Sengun and the club's wings to make the Rockets' offense potent.
McMenamin: The Cavaliers are no fluke, beating up on an Eastern Conference that's weaker than the West. They have star power in the backcourt (Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland) and frontcourt (Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen). They can go 10 deep, and that's not counting Max Strus, an elite role player who has missed most of the season because of an ankle injury. They have the second-best point differential in the league behind Oklahoma City. Their coach, Kenny Atkinson, has been waiting for a chance to prove himself since being unceremoniously ousted by the Brooklyn Nets during the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving failed experiment. Add in a great postseason home-court advantage thanks to an electric fan base, and the road to the Finals in the East could go through Cleveland.
MacMahon: The Thunder arrived as a contender last season, when Oklahoma City was the No. 1 seed in the West. Cleveland is on that path now. There seems to be an assumption that the Celtics' return to the Finals is a certainty, but it'd be foolish to dismiss the Cavaliers as a serious threat. There is nothing fluky about Cleveland's league-best 29-4 record. The Cavaliers are in rare air with a net rating of plus-11.6, which ranks behind only this season's Thunder (11.9) and last season's Celtics (11.7) among teams in the past decade.
Which coach is in the hot seat for the second half of the season?
Youngmisuk: One Las Vegas oddsmaker gives Chauncey Billups the best odds as the next NBA coach to be fired. But the Blazers have not given Billups a roster ready to contend for a playoff spot. He has had to oversee a rebuilding era in Portland filled with injuries and young players still learning the game. Yes, Billups has vets in Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. But the franchise has bet on guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to be their stars of the future with Deandre Ayton and Deni Avdija as complementary pieces. Billups needs more time and more vets.
Collier: There's going to be pressure on Michael Malone to keep the Denver Nuggets among the elite teams in the West as long as Nikola Jokic is in his prime. The Nuggets have a lot of flaws, and currently would have to go through the play-in tournament to make the playoffs. Despite being only two seasons removed from their title, NBA teams have shown time and again that they move swiftly on coaching decisions.
Herring: Willie Green led the New Orleans Pelicans to 49 wins last season and 42 victories in 2022-23 but has just five victories this season. New Orleans has been ravaged by injuries, both in terms of games missed and salary lost, more than any other NBA team this season. Every member of the Pelicans' top eight was out at some point during the first two months, and Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out. But season-long failures of this magnitude generally result in someone being let go.
McMenamin: Nick Nurse's seat has cooled considerably after the 76ers won nine of 12 games in December following an anemic 3-14 start to the season. But the weight of expectations are still on the shoulders of Nurse, who coached the Toronto Raptors to a championship in 2019. Philadelphia's addition of Paul George to the duo of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey was expected to give Sixers fans -- hungry for a championship since 1983 -- a chance to cheer on a title contender. If Philly can't continue to climb its hole and factor into the East race, Nurse could bear the brunt of the fallout.
MacMahon: The Pelicans' Willie Green is further proof that NBA coaching is a tough business. New Orleans has the league's worst record, but it's hard to blame that on the coach of a team that usually has its two high-priced stars sitting out due to injuries. If Green gets let go, he should immediately be a candidate for other openings over the summer.
The best storyline to follow for the rest of the season is___?
McMenamin: Cleveland is a tremendous story. Who doesn't love the weird joy the Cavs Frog brings as a sideshow to the main event? But because we already covered the Cavs as a newcomer contender, I'll keep my focus local and say that the Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers might finally deliver the so-called "Battle for L.A." that was promised when Kawhi Leonard signed with the Clips the same summer Anthony Davis was traded to the Lakers. Both teams have been better than expected through the first 30 games of the season. With Leonard nearing a comeback and the Lakers trading for Dorian Finney-Smith, who could help them guard Leonard when he returns, the four remaining regular-season games should be big-time basketball.
Collier: The Memphis Grizzlies and Ja Morant. A few years ago, the Grizzlies were one of the league's ascendant young teams and Morant was one of its best young stars. Now, Memphis is second in the West despite a plethora of injuries. If everyone can stay healthy and focused on basketball, the Grizzlies are a legit contender in the West and will be a fun playoff team to add to the mix.
Herring: If the Magic earn home-court advantage despite losing their two best players for months -- and being last in the league in 3-point shooting -- they would be a very cool story. Similar to the Rockets, they know their identity and play extremely physically in each game. It's what has helped them stay in contention despite not having Banchero and Franz Wagner. The duo's scoring is desperately missed on a team with minimal offense. Jamahl Mosley's coaching has been fantastic, and he should be right in contention for coach of the year with Udoka and Atkinson.
Youngmisuk: How will the second apron impact this trade season? Which contending teams will make a move as teams such as Washington, Brooklyn and the Pelicans lean more into what is expected to be a very deep draft next summer. Perhaps there won't be any big-name players moved before the deadline, but teams such as the Lakers and Warriors have made trades already -- and could remain busy.
MacMahon: The small-market Thunder might not have much sizzle, but the NBA's next dynasty could be blossoming in Bricktown. We've heard that before, and the trio of future MVPs -- Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden -- couldn't bring a championship to Oklahoma City. All indications are that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a deep, young supporting cast are ready to make a run at a title and will have an extended window as contenders.