Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 21, 2025, 07:21 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
16.3	Zack Wheeler	R	BOS	99.9%	68%	6.4	2.1	7.2
14.3	Paul Skenes	R	DET	99.9%	75%	5.8	1.9	6.4
13.2	Kodai Senga	R	LAA	90.6%	61%	5.7	1.8	6.1
12.0	George Kirby	R	MIL	82.7%	54%	5.7	2.2	5.5
11.5	Brandon Woodruff	R	@SEA	64.2%	46%	5.5	2.1	5.8
11.4	Carlos Rodon	L	@TOR	97.2%	53%	5.8	2.4	5.7
10.7	Tanner Bibee	R	BAL	73.0%	60%	5.6	2.7	5.9
10.6	Shane Baz	R	CWS	48.0%	60%	5.6	2.3	5.3
10.3	Eury Perez	R	SD	32.3%	51%	4.9	1.9	5.1
9.8	Kevin Gausman	R	NYY	85.4%	47%	5.7	2.8	5.7
8.9	Noah Cameron	L	@CHC	34.5%	63%	5.3	2.6	5.0
8.9	Zac Gallen	R	HOU	72.1%	47%	5.6	3.0	5.8
8.8	Tyler Anderson	L	@NYM	7.0%	39%	5.5	2.5	5.0
8.5	Jacob Lopez	L	@TEX	6.8%	62%	4.9	2.5	5.3
8.5	Brady Singer	R	@WSH	32.8%	58%	5.5	3.0	5.3
8.3	David Festa	R	@LAD	1.3%	52%	4.7	2.2	5.2
8.1	Jake Irvin	R	CIN	13.4%	42%	5.6	3.1	5.1
7.3	Randy Vasquez	R	@MIA	2.0%	49%	5.2	2.5	3.6
7.2	Colton Gordon	L	@ARI	1.4%	53%	5.3	3.1	4.9
6.4	Shohei Ohtani	R	MIN	99.9%	48%	3.6	1.6	3.6
5.9	Sean Burke	R	@TB	3.1%	40%	5.0	3.0	4.5
5.8	Hayden Birdsong	R	@ATL	4.0%	53%	4.7	3.0	5.0
5.1	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@CLE	7.6%	40%	5.3	3.4	3.8
4.9	Walker Buehler	R	@PHI	14.3%	32%	5.0	3.2	4.4
4.5	Bryce Elder	R	SF	1.9%	47%	5.2	3.8	4.6
1.1	Michael McGreevy	R	@COL	1.0%	59%	5.2	5.5	4.6
	TBD		@PIT	0.0%	25%	0.0	0.0	0.0
	TBD		ATH	0.0%	38%	0.0	0.0	0.0
	TBD		KC	0.0%	37%	0.0	0.0	0.0
-1.8	Austin Gomber	L	STL	0.3%	41%	5.0	5.9	3.7

Pitchers to stream on Monday

Shane Baz's last four outings before the All-Star break were all quality starts and he's in a good position to keep it going when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Chicago White Sox. Baz opens his post-break schedule facing the lineup with the league's lowest wOBA versus right-handers.
In his last three starts before the break, Eury Perez compiled 18 innings, fanning 21 with just one walk. He yielded one earned run in that span, winning all three efforts. Next up is a home date with the San Diego Padres. The visitors don't strike out much, but they sport the fourth-lowest home run rate against righties and generate the eighth-poorest wOBA.
Jacob Lopez has eight outings lasting at least four innings this season. He fanned at least eight batters in five of them. He's in line for another big strikeout effort with the Athletics visiting the Texas Rangers. The Rangers sport the ninth-highest strikeout rate facing left-handed pitching, helping fuel the third-lowest wOBA against southpaws.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

This is more of a heads up than a suggestion to avoid Shohei Ohtani. Technically the starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers' game Monday, Ohtani is more of an opener, as he's ticketed for three innings before Dustin May takes over. At some point, Ohtani will serve as a traditional starter, but not for this home affair with the Minnesota Twins. In fact, May is a solid streamer since he doesn't need to complete five frames to vulture a win.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Monday

Since June 1, Randy Vasquez has walked 19 hitters while punching out just 18 in 39 1/3 innings. The Miami Marlins' lefty swingers, most notable Kyle Stowers and Jesus Sanchez, are solid streaming targets against the Padres right-hander.
Bryce Elder went into the break on a high note, striking out seven in 6 2/3 frames and limiting the Athletics to only one run. However, over his four previous outings, he recorded a 12.64 ERA and 2.81 WHIP. The San Francisco Giants visit the Atlanta Braves, landing Mike Yastrzemski as one of the slate's top hitters to pick up.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Matt Wallner | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the second-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.

Freddie Freeman | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium's CF fences are also the ninth-shallowest in the majors.

Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past 14 days, Cruz's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) shows big improvement over his season-long rate of 16.8%.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Tomoyuki Sugano | OVER 3.5 K (+120)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.47 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is projected to have the fifth-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Eury Perez | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the offense with the second-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.9 underlying K%.

Walker Buehler | UNDER 4.5 K (-155)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.32 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts). This game is predicted to have the fifth-hottest weather (82 degrees) on the slate.