What can we expect from what promises to be another crazy summer of NBA free agency? Our 5-on-5 panel weighs in.
1. Which team is the one to watch in free agency?
J.A. Adande, ESPN.com: Dallas Mavericks. They can solidify themselves as a playoff team if they land their top targets (think DeAndre Jordan or LaMarcus Aldridge) or they could open a playoff spot for the pack of hungry contenders if they strike out. They have as wide a range of outcomes as anyone.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: The Evil Empire, the San Antonio Spurs. The idea that they can clear enough cap space to sign a max-level player is making the league quiver. For years, people have sat around and said, "Yeah, but what's gonna happen when the Big Three moves on?" San Antonio might just find the succession plan this summer.
Ramona Shelburne, ESPN.com: Can I rephrase this to, which is the STATE to watch in free agency? Because it's Texas. Between the Mavericks, Spurs and Rockets, a lot of the key action on the top-tier free agents will be doing the same Texas three-step visiting teams do through the Lone Star state during the season.
Marc Stein, ESPN.com: San Antonio. It has taken only two decades and five championships, but the Spurs are a destination at last and at the forefront of the biggest free-agent headlines. They are the favorites to steal Aldridge away from Portland. The only other team Marc Gasol gave consideration before basically recommitting to Memphis. The Spurs are suddenly sexy!
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: Spurs. They have a chance to do something that's usually impossible if they can add Aldridge and then re-sign Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan. That is to rebuild and retain current stars at the same time. However, to pull this off it is going to take a lot of smoke and mirrors with the rest of their roster and it will bear monitoring.
2. Who's the best unrestricted free agent not named LeBron?
Adande: Marc Gasol. But he might as well be LeBron in terms of lack of chatter about him moving elsewhere. Gasol can anchor a defense and is coming off a career-high 17 points per game last season. It would be understandable if he went elsewhere after seven years without breaking through to the NBA Finals with the Grizzlies, but he apparently wants to stay in Memphis.
Elhassan: Gasol. He's the only guy on the board not named LeBron who you can legitimately construct your team offense AND defense around.
Shelburne: In terms of impact, I'd say Gasol or Aldridge. Doesn't look like Gasol's going anywhere. But Aldridge seems to be on his way out of Portland. If he lands in San Antonio, Los Angeles or Dallas, it changes the course for each franchise for years to come as well as the Western Conference.
Stein: Given the list of teams lining up for him, it's the summer of LaMarcus for starters. And given the fact Gasol has all but committed already to re-sign with the Grizzlies, there's little use discussing him here. But I think we're all sleeping on Kevin Love. I still think he's going to have a significant impact in Cleveland if the Cavs, as it now appears, manage to retain him. Quality shooter, elite rebounder, top-shelf passer. Write off Love if you want after so many things went awry in his first season as a Cav, but I refuse.
Windhorst: Well, Gasol was first team All-NBA and he's an unrestricted free agent. You could give several answers here but honor would seem like a tiebreaker to me.
3. Who's the best restricted free agent on the market?
Adande: Kawhi Leonard. Don't be fooled by the lack of noise, which is typical of both Leonard and the Spurs. If the Spurs lock down Leonard with a long-term deal it will be one of the most important transactions in the league when we look back on this summer years from now. If he goes short-term it could create more drama than we're used to seeing in San Antonio. As Andre Iguodala just showed, there's great value in being a defensive weapon to use against LeBron James.
Elhassan: This is tough, but I'm going to lean toward Leonard. He's magnificent on both ends of the floor, and rebounds like a power forward. But that's no slight toward Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green, both talented guys in their own right.
Shelburne: Butler. The Bulls have said they'll match any offer sheet on him so I doubt his free agency becomes all that interesting. Teams just can't afford to have their cap space tied up for three days while they have an offer sheet out to a restricted free agent. But if Butler signs a short-term deal and hits free agency again next summer or the year after that, the competition for him will be stiff.
Stein: Why are you making me choose between Leonard, Butler and Green when so many things are already happening, before we even get to July 1, that I can scarcely think straight? Not cool.
Windhorst: Leonard. Like all the rest of the top-end restricted players, though, he's not really on the market. He's going to be a Spur for years.
4. Who's the best under-the-radar free agent on the market?
Adande: Wesley Matthews. Even if he isn't quite the same player some four months after tearing his left Achilles tendon, he's still the same person who helped give the Trail Blazers a fighting spirit for much of the season. They went 10-12 after he went down (and other injuries began mounting) and never seemed to have the same edge. He could still bring that attitude.
Elhassan: Ready for a hot take? Kosta Koufos! This guy is a starting-caliber center who's been forced to play a bit role behind one of the best frontcourts in basketball. Because his per game numbers aren't eye-popping, he'll likely get a modest deal somewhere, but he's my pick for best value (along with Patrick Beverley).
Shelburne: I think Tyson Chandler and Robin Lopez can really help some teams and both are in play. The way defense is being played around the league now, it's essential to have a rim-protecting big man and these two are it. I also think Arron Afflalo can really help a contender as a 3-and-D guy.
Stein: Paul Millsap, Danny Green and a title-tested big man getting very little attention with all the other top bigs on the market this summer -- Tyson Chandler -- all come to mind. From the restricted free agents: Orlando's Tobias Harris.
Windhorst: Millsap. He has been underrated for much of his career. There's a bunch of teams who think they have a chance to get him and he is coming off a contract where he was underpaid. Perfect for a bidding war.
5. Which free agent is most likely to be overpaid?
Adande: Greg Monroe. Despite the move toward smaller lineups, the NBA isn't so over big men that teams have lost all interest in them. And agent David Falk, who ruled the NBA in the 1990s, hasn't lost his negotiating touch, as evidenced by the $15.5 million Roy Hibbert will make this season.
Elhassan: Tobias Harris. There's still a strong contingent of NBA folks who are enamored by points per game, and Harris definitely checks that box. He's not a great perimeter shooter, a well below average defender, and a bit of a ball-stopper on offense. But hooray points!
Shelburne: Everyone. This is the last year players can be signed at 2015 prices. Next year all salaries will go up. So giving, let's say, Ed Davis a three-year deal worth $7-8 million a year might seem like a lot this summer. But next year that's actually a very reasonable salary. Look for a guy like DeMarre Carroll to be the biggest beneficiary of this phenomenon.
Stein: Don't think Brook Lopez's injury history can really justify a $20 million annual salary anymore. But the Nets simply can't afford to lose him this offseason given their total lack of cap space to replace Lopez if he bolts. So they're stuck. The Nets have to splash out all that cash to get that deal done.
Windhorst: It's hard to say because it's a changing world. What looked like a bad contract a year ago may not be so bad in a world with a $108 million cap, as there may be in two years. Under that guise, there may not be a bad contract given out this summer. Though I'm not sure I'd be crazy about giving restricted point guards like Reggie Jackson or Brandon Knight contracts for $12 million a season. But I could disagree with myself in a couple of years.