This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's May 25 Pitchers Issue. Subscribe today!
FOR SOME TEAMS -- those with actual plans (Sixers! Metrics!) and those without (Knicks!) -- the May 19 draft lottery offers a chance to justify a season-long slog of stink. Why? Because the NBA's inane lottery system fetishizes futility. Consider the Knicks, who in their 81st game beat the East-leading Hawks, pushing the projected top pick to Minnesota. The response of coach Derek Fisher? "I'm sure people are upset with us. But I don't think you can ever go out and not try your best." This was a coach defending a win. Because reform ideas are legion, we put three to the test and had NBA Insider Chad Ford predict each team's pick. A fantasy exercise? Sure. Dare to dream, NBA fans. Dare to dream.
FIRST LOSER? NOW YOU'RE THE FIRST WINNER!
One proposal, championed by ESPN Radio's Mike Greenberg, would flip the system that now exists, gifting the No. 1 pick not to the NBA's 30th team but to the best non-playoff team (the 17th). "The current system makes no sense," Greenberg says. "We incentivize losing." Under this model, the Thunder, 2015's first playoff misser, would feel pretty darn good about losing that playoff tiebreaker. And a Philly-style tank job? (Hey, Sam Hinkie, here's the No. 12 pick for your troubles.) Yeah ... not quite as prudent.
Chad Ford predicts ...
1. Thunder Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Suns Jahlil Okafor
3. Pacers D'Angelo Russell
4. Jazz Kristaps Porzingis
5. Heat Emmanuel Mudiay
TO EACH ACCORDING TO ITS BASKETBALL NEEDS
Here's an idea: Let's blow up the whole dang draft and implement something like the National Resident Matching Program, which uses a formula to place the brightest young doctors in the hospitals that match their skill sets. Teams would be paired with players who are the best fit to fill their greatest statistical need. No draft. No tanking. No miserable fans. It's mutually assured construction! "The NBA is a collection of 30 teams, but it's actually 30 workplaces," says ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz, who hatched the idea. "This creates happier marriages between players and teams." (Note: In building the list below, our need-based algorithm gave the Knicks two top-five picks. Because, well, they're just that bad.)
Top five players from Ford's big board ...
Karl-Anthony Towns Timberwolves (worst rim protection)
Jahlil Okafor Knicks (worst RPM* from centers)
Emmanuel Mudiay Knicks (worst RPM from point guards)
D'Angelo Russell 76ers (worst RPM from all guards)
Kristaps Porzingis Kings (worst RPM from power forwards)
SHOCK THE WORLD? HAVE A TOP PICK!
Mika Honkasalo, of basketball analytics site NylonCalculus.com, has a notion: Reward teams that most outperform preseason projections. This approach -- we used Bovada's over/under totals as a baseline -- would have given the top-seeded Hawks (19-game outperformance) and Warriors (16.5) top-three picks this June. Just the rich getting richer? Hardly. It's impossible to improve every year. "It reinforces behavior fans would like to see in teams," says Nylon Calculus editor Ian Levy. "And it works over the long haul."
Chad Ford predicts ...
1. Hawks Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Bucks Jahlil Okafor
3. Warriors D'Angelo Russell
4. Jazz Kristaps Porzingis
5. Celtics Willie Cauley-Stein
*Real plus-minus