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Player profiles: Projecting Barnes, Dirk, Bogut and the Mavs

Dirk Nowitzki will anchor a revamped Mavericks starting lineup. How will they mesh together next season? Danny Bollinger/Getty Images

Go to: Starters | Reserves

With notable additions Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes, how will the Dallas Mavericks' revamped lineup work with Dirk Nowitzki and Co.?

Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.

Projected starters


Deron Williams
Position: Guard
Experience: 11 years
Age: 32

Scouting report
+ Former All-Star point guard who has embraced smaller role
+ No longer much of a penetrator but still a capable distributor
+ Good size for position has helped compensate for lost quickness

Analysis
Perception is a powerful thing. Williams posted 4.2 wins above replacement player (WARP) during his final season with the Brooklyn Nets but was considered a disappointment due to high expectations and his high salary. After agreeing to a buyout from Brooklyn and signing in Dallas, Williams posted 2.6 WARP last year and was considered a useful contributor. Williams ended up re-signing a one-year deal with the Mavericks worth $10 million including incentives.

In his 30s, the Williams who drove off the pick-and-roll in his prime is mostly a thing of the past. He attempted a career-low 16.4 percent of his shots inside three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com. Williams was more accurate finishing those attempts than during a fluky poor 2014-15, helping compensate for his 3-point percentage dipping from 36.7 percent to 34.4 percent, his lowest mark since 2011-12. As he has slowed down, Williams' assist rate has declined accordingly, but this is more a function of his inability to draw help rather than weaker passing.

Rick Carlisle took advantage of Williams' size in lineups with multiple point guards, using him to defend shooting guards and even the occasional small forward. A stoutly-built 6-foot-3, Williams held his own in those matchups and probably matches up better with bigger opponents as he loses quickness.


Wesley Matthews
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
Age: 29

Scouting report
+ Largely healthy but far less effective in return from ruptured Achilles
+ Before injury, had emerged as one of NBA's top 3-and-D wings
+ Always better suited to defending bigger, strong opponents

Analysis
Dallas gambled big on Matthews' ability to return from a ruptured Achilles, handing him a four-year, $70 million deal last summer. While that contract no longer looks quite so lavish in the context of this summer's spending spree, it's still likely to be an overpay if Matthews can't up his performance. He fulfilled his stated intention of playing on opening night less than eight months after his injury, but he was never the same player.

Actually, never the same player isn't quite fair. Matthews made better than 40 percent of his 3s in both December and February, but those hot streaks were short-lived, and even then he struggled to finish inside as well as he did before the injury. Lacking explosiveness, Matthews made 50 percent of his shots inside three feet, according to per Basketball-Reference.com -- down from 60 percent the season before. Matthews also got fewer of those shots, as well as the post-up scores that were a staple for him in Portland, leaving him increasingly dependent on the 3-pointer.

Despite his offensive downturn, Matthews still played nearly 34 minutes a night, basically the same workload he had with the Blazers. He was crucial to the Mavericks as their best wing defender, a role in which he was probably miscast after the injury. Matthews has always been better against more physical opponents than quicker ones, which was exacerbated last season. According to NBA.com/stats, Dallas allowed a team-low 101.6 points per 100 possessions with Matthews on the bench. The emergence of Justin Anderson may give Rick Carlisle a more viable alternative for wing defense this season.


Harrison Barnes
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 24

Scouting report
+ Role player in Golden State who will be asked to do more in Dallas
+ Thrives on open shots; has struggled when asked to create
+ Solid defender with ability to slide down to power forward

Analysis
Barnes didn't exactly submit an ideal contract run during the playoffs. He was benched late in the Western Conference finals and overcompensated for a shooting slump in the NBA Finals by trying to do too much off the dribble. Yet Barnes got his max contract (four years, $94 million) anyway, and the Mavericks didn't have to worry about the Warriors matching after they signed some Durant guy as Barnes' replacement. Now the question is whether that big contract will weigh down Barnes with unrealistic expectations.

"I think he can do a lot more than he's been asked to do, and that's what we expect to see," Dallas owner Mark Cuban declared after signing Barnes. The problem with that logic is it's precisely when Barnes has been asked to do more (i.e. create his own shot) that he has struggled. That was Barnes' role off the bench his second season, when just 62.6 percent of his field goals were assisted and he shot a dismal 41.9 percent on 2-point attempts and 34.7 percent on 3s.

Upon Steve Kerr's arrival, Barnes became more effective when he returned to the starting lineup and feasted on the open 3s created by Golden State's stars. Per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/stats, more than 60 percent of Barnes' 3-point attempts came with no defender closer than six feet. He shot 42.6 percent on such attempts, as compared to 30.8 percent on more contested 3-point attempts.

At the defensive end, Barnes is an unequivocal upgrade from departed Chandler Parsons. Though not quite stopper-caliber, Barnes is a solid wing defender who is strong enough to defend power forwards -- the latter trait key to the success of the Warriors' "death lineup." Rick Carlisle loves to use smaller lineups when Dirk Nowitzki rests, so expect Barnes to get minutes at the 4 in those scenarios.


Dirk Nowitzki
Position: Forward
Experience: 18 years
Age: 38

Scouting report
+ Longtime superstar aging gracefully in late 30s
+ Remains one of league's best midrange shooters
+ Has trouble keeping up with quicker opponents

Analysis
With Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan retiring and Kevin Garnett debating joining them, Nowitzki may be left as the last superstar who entered the league in the 1990s. While Nowitzki's eventual farewell is likely to look more like Duncan's quiet departure than Bryant's tour, there's no indication we need to plan for either scenario just yet. Nowitzki signed a two-year, $50 million deal this summer that includes a 2017-18 team option in case he wants to take another discount to facilitate the Mavericks creating additional cap space.

In all likelihood, Nowitzki will tire of the NBA grind before he's physically incapable of accurate outside shooting. He knocked down his usual 46.8 percent of 2-point attempts beyond 10 feet last season, good for sixth among players with at least 250 such attempts according to Basketball-Reference.com. Typically, shooting so many long 2-pointers is not a recipe for offensive efficiency, but Nowitzki's gravitational pull on defenders is so strong that he opens the floor for Dallas' guards. That explains why the Mavericks scored 7.1 more points per 100 possessions with Nowitzki on the floor last season, per NBA.com/stats.

Age has taken a greater toll on Nowitzki defensively. He runs like he's stuck in cement, an issue in transition defense, defending fellow stretch bigs and against the pick-and-roll. One solution Dallas has tried is putting Nowitzki at center at times in ultraoffensive lineups that sacrifice rim protection for elite floor spacing. Via Nylon Calculus, such lineups outscored opponents by a robust 5.6 points per 48 minutes.


Andrew Bogut
Position: Center
Experience: 11 years
Age: 31

Scouting report
+ Experienced, injury-prone center whose minutes have been limited
+ Strong passer and decision-maker from high post on offense
+ Premier rim protector who struggles when dragged away from basket

Analysis

Besides letting go of Barnes, clearing enough space to sign Durant required Golden State to trade Bogut to the Mavericks, who also got a future second-round pick in the deal. One of the NBA's great what-ifs will be whether the outcome of the NBA Finals -- and Durant's decision -- might have been different had Bogut not gone down with a severe bone bruise during Game 5, finishing his series and leaving the Warriors thin at center.

With former Dallas starter Zaza Pachulia signing in Golden State as Bogut's replacement, the teams more or less swapped centers. That's a deal that should favor the Mavericks defensively. Bogut now has difficulty coming out to defend on the perimeter, one reason -- along with his health -- his minutes have been limited. Still, when on the court Bogut is an elite rim protector. Opponents shot just 45.2 percent inside five feet against Bogut, the fifth-best mark among players who defended at least five such shots per game according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/stats. And Bogut finished with the league's best defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus on a per-possession basis.

More limited offensively, Bogut finished a career-low 11.4 percent of the Warriors' plays while on the court but did show surprising scoring prowess in leading Australia to a fourth-place finish in the Olympics. He'll occasionally score in the post, primarily using hook shots, but most of Bogut's offensive value at this point comes as an offensive rebounder and playmaker from the high post. His 4.0 assists per 36 minutes last season ranked fourth among 7-footers.

Reserves


J.J. Barea
Position: Guard
Experience: 10 years
Age: 32

Scouting report
+ Undersized, quick point guard who thrives in pick-and-roll game
+ Enjoyed best season of his career as a 3-point shooter
+ Gives up size to nearly all opposing players

Analysis
Scientists use the term "commensalism" to describe relationships in nature where one party benefits without harming the other. That's the type of relationship Barea enjoys with Dirk Nowitzki.

Throughout his career, Barea has been best in the Dallas pick-and-roll game, which is really a way of saying he's best running pick-and-roll with Nowitzki. Because of the defensive attention Nowitzki requires, Barea is free to use his speed to get to the basket off the dribble. According to NBA.com/stats, Barea saw his true shooting percentage fall from 57.1 percent with Nowitzki last season to 47.5 percent without him -- similar to his 47.1 percent true shooting in 2013-14 with the Minnesota Timberwolves, who cut him thereafter, freeing Barea to return to the comforts of Dallas and Nowitzki.

Barea has worked to improve his shooting, and last season saw him make a career-high 100 3-pointers at a 38.5 percent clip, keeping opponents from ducking under screens to cut off his driving lanes. Still, Barea wouldn't be the same player without Nowitzki's presence, as we saw in Minnesota. In that case, his defensive shortcomings at a listed (and generous) 6-foot might make Barea unplayable. So nobody should be more concerned with making sure Nowitzki is happy and wants to keep playing than him.


Devin Harris
Position: Guard
Experience: 12 years
Age: 33

Scouting report
+ Combo guard who can be effective on and off the ball
+ Has a knack for getting to the free throw line
+ Experienced at defending bigger opponents

Analysis
At 6-foot-3, Harris isn't exceptionally big for a point guard. Because of Rick Carlisle's fondness for using multiple ball handlers, however, he has spent much of his second stint in Dallas playing shooting guard. Last year, Carlisle trotted out 3-point guard lineups with Harris playing alongside Barea and Raymond Felton, bringing new meaning to the term "small forward."

Harris has handled this all with aplomb. He's experienced at defending bigger opponents -- usually shooting guards, since the Mavericks typically played zone with all three point guards on the court -- and uses quick hands and lower-body strength to make them work.

At this point, Harris is also familiar with playing more off the ball than he'd prefer. Though not a great 3-point shooter -- he shot 32.9 percent from downtown last year, a hair better than his career mark of 32.4 percent -- Harris is a threat enough to keep defenders honest. He's also good at attacking the defense when the ball changes sides of the court, and excels at drawing free throws on the drive. His per-game totals aren't nearly what they were during his prime -- Harris averaged 8.8 attempts per game in 2008-09, when he made his lone All-Star appearances -- but on a per-shot basis, it remains strong. That's a big reason why Harris typically scores with above-average efficiency.


Justin Anderson
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 22

Scouting report
+ Budding 3-and-D wing likely to step into larger role
+ Struggled with transition to NBA 3-point line
+ Physical defender capable of guarding multiple positions

Analysis
Assuming nothing goes catastrophically wrong in training camp, Anderson will become the first Mavericks first-round pick to make it to Year 2 in Dallas since 2010 selection Dominique Jones. On a team starved for young talent, Anderson represents the greatest hope for the future. It took Anderson most of his rookie season to win Rick Carlisle's trust, but he emerged as a key contributor in the postseason and will hope to build on that performance in his second season.

As a rookie, Anderson was light on the "3" half of the 3-and-D equation, and it's tough to tell whether that was a product of his limited playing time or the result of it. Anderson shot 45.2 percent from the shorter college 3-point line in 2014-15, but that was out of line with his first two seasons (near 30 percent), and he's unlikely to be an elite shooter in the NBA. More than just a specialist, Anderson was probably too aggressive at times off the dribble but has shot better than 50 percent inside the arc using his powerful frame to finish with ease around the basket.

Size and strength enable Anderson to defend either wing spot, as well as smaller power forwards. He's an excellent shot blocker for a wing, and in fact, blocked shots as a rookie at a rate that would be nearly average for a center. Anderson also crashed the defensive glass hard from the perimeter and was an effective rebounder.


Dwight Powell
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
Age: 25

Scouting report
+ Skilled backup big man who can play either frontcourt spot
+ Excellent finisher; working to add 3-point range
+ Less comfortable with physical play in the paint

Analysis
Though Powell played less than a thousand minutes in his second NBA campaign, the Mavericks made a big commitment to him as a restricted free agent, re-signing Powell to a four-year contract worth more than $37 million. The deal signals that Powell will begin 2015-16 as Dallas' top frontcourt reserve.

Powell can play either frontcourt spot, though he's more comfortable as a power forward. To be effective there, Powell will probably have to improve his shooting. He showcased 3-point range at the 2015 NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, but made both of his 3s during the 2015-16 regular season in the same quarter on Jan. 17 against San Antonio, finishing 2-of-16 beyond the arc. And Powell wasn't much better a step inside the line, shooting 33.3 percent on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet according to Basketball-Reference.com. Though he can struggle at times to finish over defenders, Powell is a fine finisher off the pick-and-roll because of his ability to play above the rim.

If Powell has the offensive skills of a center, his defense is more suited to playing power forward. He's light for a center and is only an average shot blocker and defensive rebounder for a 4-man. On the plus side, Powell moves his feet well and is the Mavericks' best big man at defending pick-and-rolls.


Salah Mejri
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
Age: 30

Scouting report
+ Self-assured international veteran who contributed as NBA rookie
+ Experienced pick-and-roll player who rolls hard to basket
+ Prolific shot blocker who will foul in the pursuit of blocks

Analysis
Debuting at age 29 as the first player from Tunisia in NBA history, Mejri didn't have any doubts about his ability to play in the league. When reporters asked him if a March double-double against the Portland Trail Blazers would build his confidence, Mejri replied, "I don't need my confidence; I need the coach's confidence. I know what I can do." Mejri talked trash to All-Stars and took 3-pointers, but it worked because when given the chance he backed up his talk with production.

Thanks to his international experience, Mejri proved a quick study in the pick-and-roll game. He rolls hard and catches the ball on the move, though he can get in trouble if forced to put the ball on the ground without a plan. Among players with at least 25 pick-and-roll possessions as tracked by Synergy Sports, only DeAndre Jordan (82.1 percent) shot better as a roll man than Mejri (78.9 percent).

At the other end, Mejri's block percentage (7.6 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) ranked third in the league among players with at least 250 minutes behind Hassan Whiteside and John Henson. For a 7-foot-2 center, he tracks players well from behind and has good timing as a shot blocker. Per NBA.com/stats, Dallas allowed 2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions with Mejri on the court and had a plus-6.3 net rating, best of any player on the roster. Given Mejri is 30 and coming off arthroscopic knee surgery in June, we've probably already seen the best of him, but he has earned more playing time next season and will be a bargain at the veteran's minimum.


Seth Curry
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 26

Scouting report
+ Younger Curry has established himself as NBA combo guard
+ Can play point guard but more comfortable looking for own shot
+ Targeted by opponents defensively, particularly by bigger guards

Analysis
Overshadowed by his older brother's development into an MVP, Curry has quietly grown into a rotation-caliber player in his own right. Curry finished his first full NBA season by averaging 16.4 points in the month of April for the Sacramento Kings, earning a two-year, $6 million deal from the Mavericks.

Curry's fundamental problem has been that he's too short to defend shooting guards but not really a point guard. As a result, the 5.3 assists he averaged in April might have been as impressive as his scoring. Curry spent most of his season playing off the ball as a catch-and-shoot specialist, and was outstanding in that role -- he shot 45 percent from beyond the arc, nearly identical to his brother (albeit on far fewer attempts). Still, the ability to play with the ball in his hands makes Curry a more valuable contributor and gives him the opportunity to thrive running pick-and-rolls with Dirk Nowitzki.

Former Kings coach George Karl actually used Curry as something of a defensive specialist against quick guards, which says more about Sacramento's other options than it does about Curry. When matched with shooting guards, Curry was a target for isolation plays and post-ups and handled them reasonably well. Still, his lack of size is a major shortcoming at shooting guard and may encourage Rick Carlisle to play zone when using Curry alongside a point guard.


Quincy Acy
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 25

Scouting report
+ High-energy backup big man
+ Excellent finisher with range
+ Compensates for size with activity

Analysis
After a solid season off the bench with the Kings, Acy chose free agency over a $1.05 million player option for 2016-17 ... and ended up signing for the same amount with the Mavericks, part of a two-year deal for the veteran's minimum that includes another player option for 2017-18. On the plus side, Acy was able to return to North Texas, where he starred in college at Baylor, and he should thrive in the Dallas offense.

Always a fine finisher around the basket because of his athleticism (he has shot 67.4 percent career inside three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com), Acy has developed into a legitimate 3-point threat. He made a career-high 19 triples at a 38.8 percent clip. While on the perimeter, Acy is also good at driving to the basket to take advantage of an opening created by penetration, which should come in handy in the Mavericks' pick-and-roll offense.

At 6-foot-7, Acy is one of the league's smaller power forwards, so he can only be effective defensively by playing with a high motor. He shows well on pick-and-rolls and is an occasional shot-blocking threat. Previously a good defensive rebounder, Acy struggled last year, securing a career-low 15.1 percent of available defensive boards -- worse than the league average for a power forward (19.2 percent).


A.J. Hammons
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
Age: 24

Scouting report
+ Athletic 7-footer who underachieved offensively before senior year
+ Strong rebounder who needs to increase defensive energy level
+ Fine shot blocker who may struggle with fouls

Analysis
It's weird to talk about a 24-year-old rookie in terms of potential. Such is the case with Hammons, whose tools outstripped his offensive production before his senior season at Purdue. Until 2015-16, the 7-footer had never averaged more than 11.8 points per game or shot better than 55.4 percent, which sounds impressive but isn't given how much shooting percentages tend to drop in the NBA. Dallas is hoping his production last season (15.0 points per game in just 24.6 minutes on 59.2 percent shooting) is more telling of how Hammons will perform in the NBA.

The vast majority of Hammons' points came in the post, where his 312 points led all Division I players according to Synergy Sports tracking. It's unclear how well that will translate to the NBA. Hammons was an efficient post scorer, shooting 58.5 percent on those attempts, but it will be harder to find favorable matchups against NBA opposition. He wasn't particularly effective at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, averaging just 4.5 points in 17 minutes per game. On the plus side, Hammons has also shown good touch, shooting 69 percent career from the free throw line and even making six 3-pointers in 11 attempts as a senior.

Hammons was more consistently productive on the defensive end, blocking better than 10 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts each of the last three seasons. He has been able to protect the rim without sacrificing his defensive rebounding, an encouraging sign. However, Hammons was rarely asked to defend on the perimeter and will probably have to drop when defending pick-and-rolls instead of venturing too far outside the paint.


Jonathan Gibson
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 28

Scouting report
+ Leading scorer in Chinese Basketball Association (CBA), getting first crack at NBA
+ Score-first point guard who must show playmaking skills

Analysis
Since graduating from New Mexico State in 2010, Gibson had gotten no closer to the NBA than playing summer league. But last season's eye-popping 42.0 points per game for Qingdao, tops in the high-scoring CBA, opened eyes. When Gibson backed that up by averaging 17 points for the Mavericks at the NBA summer league, it earned him a guaranteed contract for this season.

Alas, Gibson's story and skill set are both broadly similar to Seth Curry -- a standout at summer league in the summer of 2015 who now has a more lucrative two-year contract. Like Curry, Gibson is a fine outside shooter who isn't really a natural playmaker. He handed out just 10 assists in six games in Las Vegas. So Gibson may find it tough to beat out Curry for whatever playing time is available behind Dallas' top four guards.


Nicolas Brussino
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23

Scouting report
+ Lanky wing looking to make enormous jump from Argentinian Liga A
+ Capable FIBA 3-point shooter who's unlikely to create own shot

Analysis
The Mavericks are bringing Brussino, a 6-foot-7 Argentine wing who went undrafted in 2015, to training camp with $100,000 in guaranteed money. Given the enormous step up in competition -- writing on Nylon Calculus, Layne Vashro found the level of play in Argentina was comparable to the Sun Belt Conference --a stint in the D-League is more likely than a leap directly to the NBA. Brussino is a capable 3-point shooter, but his Argentinian stat line is otherwise unremarkable and doesn't really suggest much NBA potential.


Kyle Collinsworth
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 24

Scouting report
+ Uber-versatile point guard who set NCAA triple-double record
+ Poor outside shooter who may lack quickness to defend NBA guards

Analysis
As an upperclassmen at BYU, Collinsworth smashed the NCAA record for single-season (six in both 2014-15 and 2015-16) and career triple-doubles (12). In fact, he doubled the previous mark of six shared by Shaquille O'Neal and Drexel's Michael Anderson. A 6-foot-6 point guard, Collinsworth also racked up steals in addition to his work as a passer and a rebounder. Alas, he was dominating against much younger opponents.

After serving an LDS mission, Collinsworth was 23 and a junior at 24 last season. The track record of such overage players in the NBA is poor, even before accounting for the fact that Collinsworth will have a tough time playing off the ball since he made just 30 3-pointers in four seasons.


Dorian Finney-Smith
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23

Scouting report
+ Big wing with NCAA 3-point range
+ Unlikely to score efficiently at NBA level

Analysis
A 6-foot-8 forward who was a contributor on the glass, Finney-Smith's best hope of sticking in the NBA is probably to develop into a stretch 4. To do so, he'll have to improve his shooting too. While Finney-Smith was an above-average shooter from the NCAA 3-point line (36.1 percent career, including 42.6 percent as a junior), that translates into below-average accuracy from the NBA distance, and indeed Finney-Smith was just 3-of-13 on 3s during the NBA summer league. He was even worse (1-of-12) on 2-point attempts, yet still finagled a spot in training camp with the Mavericks. He'll likely end up playing for their D-League affiliate in Frisco.


Keith Hornsby
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 24

Scouting report
+ College sharpshooter who wasn't really considered NBA prospect
+ Likely to struggle defensively against NBA athleticism

Analysis
One of two sons of musician Bruce Hornsby, Keith has his own range of the 3-point variety, shooting 41.5 percent as a senior. His floor spacing was invaluable to LSU and star Ben Simmons last season. The Tigers went 9-5 in the 14 SEC games Hornsby played and finished 3-3 after his season was ended by a hernia. Still, the 24-year-old Hornsby isn't a good enough shooter to survive on that skill alone in the NBA, and he figures to struggle defending bigger opponents.


Jameel Warney
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22

Scouting report
+ Highly productive, undersized midmajor big man
+ Fine passer for big man and shot blocker for size

Analysis
A three-time America East Player of the Year, Warney was one of the nation's most productive big men at Stony Brook. As a senior, he averaged 19.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 3.0 blocks while shooting 62.8 percent from the field. Still, Warney's height (6-foot-8) and lack of shooting range caused him to go undrafted. Warney played well for Dallas at the NBA summer league, averaging 6.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in 16.5 minutes per game. However, he settled for a summer contract with no guaranteed money to come to training camp with the Mavericks.