Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 analysis for the New York Knicks.
Projected starters
Jose Calderon
Position: Guard
Experience: 10 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Formerly efficient scorer who dropped off in Knicks' offense
+ Increasingly struggles to finish inside the arc
+ Embedded in league's lowest tier of defenders
Analysis
It was a lost season for Calderon, who missed the first 13 games with a calf strain and ultimately was limited to 42 games by a bad Achilles tendon. When he did play, Calderon struggled on both ends of the floor and never looked comfortable in the triangle offense. While his 41.5 percent mark on 3s was right on target, he also shot 41.5 percent inside the arc. Not good, especially when he took 17 percent more shots from midrange than the season before. It's hard to say how much of this was from the Achilles, discomfort with the offense or simply because Calderon is 34 years old. On the bright side, Calderon's passing skills remained sharp even though he was used much less often in pick-and-roll situations. His assist rate actually went up by a tick, though his turnover rate went up as well.
On defense, Calderon has never been a plus performer, but last season he was one of the worst in the league. His multiyear RPM (minus-3.4) was in just the sixth percentile and the Knicks gave up 111.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. According to SportVu, opposing shooters shot 54.2 percent from the field when defended by Calderon. Per Synergy, he allowed a whopping 79.4 effective field-goal percentage in catch-and-shoot situations.
Arron Afflalo
Position: Guard
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Starting-quality off-guard at his best when kept in average-volume role
+ Catch-and-shoot game is solid
+ Defensive metrics have declined to well below average
Analysis
Few players have a bigger disconnect in their games between common perception and analytic reality than Afflalo. He's played almost 7,900 minutes over the past three seasons and the conventional wisdom is that if Afflalo is not quite an All-Star, he's at just the level below it. In reality, he's put up an aggregate minus-0.6 WARP for three teams during that span. For a while, it seemed as if Afflalo were simply a good player thrust into a bigger role than he can fill, as he labored for the lottery-bound Magic. Last season though, his usage rate fell below league average and his efficiency did not rebound accordingly. His RPM has hovered around minus-2.10 or worse in recent seasons, slotting him in the lower third of the league.
The Knicks did not break the bank by inking Afflalo to a two-year, $16 million deal. The second year of the pact is a player option however, and since New York almost certainly will need Afflalo to be its second option on offense to Carmelo Anthony, the tea leaves suggest a too-high volume and too-low efficiency campaign is in the offing. However, it will be interesting to see how he fits in the triangle. Afflalo is one of the better midrange shooters in the league and few wings are more accomplished in the post. While he's been asked to be more of a finisher than a creator in recent seasons, his per-pass metrics are very good and he keeps turnovers to a minimum. If the Knicks can keep Afflalo focused on his strengths, this could be the system his game has been looking for.
The story of Afflalo's season could be more told on the defensive end. He once carried a strong reputation on that end but as he's become more focused on offense, his indicators have waned. His defensive RPM for last season (minus-1.86) was in the 16th percentile, and that was the best he's done over the past three seasons. He gets few blocks or steals, and any rebound he gets is because the ball just happens to bounce his way. However, if Afflalo can improve his team defense, he could play a lot of minutes at 3 in New York, allowing Anthony to slide over to 4, where he's been at his best. New York has solid defensive options to Afflalo at 2 in Jerian Grant and Langston Galloway, and if Afflalo re-proves his two-way acumen, that configuration could become a favorite in New York.
Carmelo Anthony
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Prolific scorer and shot-creator
+ Midrange accuracy and mid-post game well suited for triangle offense
+ Indifferent defender losing mobility with age
Analysis
Anthony picked the right season to suffer from knee issues. He'd just signed an all-but-the-max deal to remain with the Knicks. Then as the team crumbled around him and his left knee sapped the zip from his game, Anthony called it quits just before the All-Star break. Even before he was sidelined, Anthony floated through much of the season, particularly on defense, and it's hard to say how much of it was the losing, and how much was the knee problem. The injury also makes it difficult to judge his transition to the triangle offense, though there is evidence that it went pretty well, even if Melo himself seemed to get frustrated with the scheme from time to time. In any event, the triangle is less about what a superstar like Anthony does, like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant showed before him, and more about how it helps what he does to better fit those around him.
During the 40 games he played, Anthony's offensive efficiency was down. Yet his touches were up thanks to the triangle's consistent ball movement, which he himself contributed to by making four more passes per 100 touches than the season before, per SportVu. Those passes resulted in scoring plays about 8 percent more often. And while Anthony's shooting efficiency was off, the decline was entirely due to a slip from 41 percent to 31 percent on above-the-break 3s. That might be explained either by random fluctuation or the balky knee, but either way, it's an area you figure will bounce back. And while New York became more midrange-oriented as a team, Anthony's shot selection wasn't that much different than it was under Mike Woodson, though the looks were coming from a very different package of plays. Anthony's single-season offensive RPM (plus-4.90) ranked in the 99th percentile. Triangle, knee trouble, whatever -- Anthony remains one of the NBA's top offensive players.
Anthony's effort was fine on the boards, where SportVu showed he grabbed contested rebounds 6.7 percent more often than 2013-14, which is impressive for a player who got almost no lift from his legs. But the effort/injury woes were glaring on defense, where he plummeted by nearly every metric we have at our disposal. His RPM on that end fell from the 63rd to the 13th percentile. His block and steal rates slipped, as did his foul rate, and that's not always a good thing. Tracking data had Anthony's opposing shooting percentage rising from .433 to .460. Because of the knee problem, we can give Anthony a mulligan for all of this, but if he's not showing a better two-way effort this season, then the Knicks might start re-thinking that quasi-max deal. And if New York loses as frequently as last season, get ready to queue up your favorite soap opera theme and plan a daily stop to ESPN's trade rumor pages.
Kyle O'Quinn
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Elite efficiency around the rim but tends to be a black hole after receiving the ball
+ Solid in rim protection situations
+ Increased focus on face-up game to below-average results
Analysis
Phil Jackson pulled off one of the nicer value pickups over the summer by agreeing to a four-year, $16 million deal with O'Quinn -- a New York native -- then acquiring him in a sign-and-trade with Orlando. O'Quinn will have a lot of utility for the Knicks both in the short-term and long-term. At the outset, expect O'Quinn to be in the mix as the possible starter at power forward while the Knicks bring along prized rookie Kristaps Porzingis. Whether O'Quinn fits next to starting center Robin Lopez in a big lineup is an open question, but even if it doesn't work, O'Quinn will be Lopez's primary backup and swing between both frontcourt positions in a bigger role than he held down in Orlando.
O'Quinn's offensive RPM cratered last season as the Magic encouraged him to pursue a stretch-4 path. It didn't work: Orlando averaged just 96 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. O'Quinn shot 28 percent from deep, not nearly enough to offset the decline in offensive rebounding that stemmed from his forays to the perimeter. O'Quinn shot less frequently from midrange but struggled there too, so perhaps he just had a poor shooting season in an inconsistent role.
He's efficient around the basket, especially on cuts and putbacks, though his post-up game lacks subtlety. O'Quinn is a willing passer with a high-risk, high-reward style that needs to be refined in the triangle. His defense has improved considerably since he came into the league, though he remains foul-prone. Though he doesn't leap well, O'Quinn has a solid, wide build and moves laterally well enough to be disruptive in the pick-and-roll. With a wingspan just a shade under 7-5, O'Quinn posts solid block rates and above-average rim protection figures.
Robin Lopez
Position: Center
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Mobile defensive big man and above-average paint protector
+ Elite offensive rebounder
+ Limited face-up game but can hit midrange shots if left unguarded
Analysis
Lopez has made a career out of complementing star power forwards. Now in New York after signing a four-year, $54 million deal over the summer, Lopez is one of several veterans the Knicks hope can outperform their career standards. In Lopez's case, he'll primarily be tasked with shoring up New York's 28th-ranked defense but his contribution to the triangle offense could be just as important. Lopez has established a reputation as a quality rebounder, basket protector and screen setter. His track record on the boards is solid, not elite, but he might do better with the Knicks. Lopez annually ranks in the top 4 to 6 percent of all players on the offensive glass and since Phil Jackson-led teams have always attacked the glass, he'll be able to continue that work in New York.
His defensive rebound percentages have been pedestrian for a big man. However, there is evidence this is a bit misleading -- a result of focusing on blocking out to free up others on the glass. For instance, in Portland, LaMarcus Aldridge's defensive rebound rate went up by 1.7 percent when Lopez was also on the floor. According to SportVu, Lopez has ranked in the 99th and 98th percentile, respectively in winning contested rebounds for the two seasons in which we have data. If he becomes New York's primary defensive rebounder, Lopez could crack double digits per game in the rebound category.
Lopez is a good, non-elite defensive center. His rim-protect percentages from SportVu put him in the upper fifth of the league, and his block rate is on a similar tier. Lopez is an energetic, mobile defender who nevertheless can have difficulty stepping out onto the floor, and his 68th percentile rating from Synergy as a big-man defender of the pick-and-roll was just so-so for an anchor. Overall though, Lopez's defensive multiyear RPM (plus-2.56) has been in the top 8 percent of the league, underscoring the notion that much of what Lopez does is intangible.
On offense, Lopez is an above-average finisher around the basket and is at his best running to the rim. While the triangle has limited roll opportunities, a basic precept of the scheme is that if you have an open lane to the hoop, you take it, and Lopez could play well off Carmelo Anthony in that regard. His passing indicators were better last season, but still below average, and he'll need to become better in New York. On the block, his 97th percentile rating last season on post-ups was an outlier based on a smallish sample size. In reality, he's an average post option who relies almost exclusively on a hook shot that looks straight out of the 1970s. Lopez has a soft enough touch from the elbows that you can't leave him unguarded, and he'll have to stay consistent at that in the Knicks' offense.
Reserves
Langston Galloway
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Athletic off the dribble but struggles to finish in the paint
+ Huge wingspan for height and uses it well on defensive end
+ Inconsistent jump shot allows opponents to help off of him
Analysis
One player to take advantage of the Knicks' doldrums last season was Galloway, who went from undrafted to the D-League to a 10-day contract and, finally, to a spot on the NBA's second-team All-Rookie club. Galloway ended up starting half of the Knicks' games last season and proved himself a fan favorite for his two-way effort even as the team around him went up in flames. Galloway is a combo guard at heart but played point most of the time as a rookie because of Jose Calderon's injury. He's more adept at getting his own shot than setting up others and the closer he gets to the hoop, the more trouble he gets into. Galloway shot 47.6 percent at the rim and didn't draw many fouls. He averaged just 3.7 assists per 36 minutes, low for a point guard even in the triangle, but did a good job of protecting the rock. Unless he develops further, Galloway looks like a do-no-harm, third guard option who hopefully knocks down open shots out to the 3-point line.
And you know what? That works fine because Galloway is a standout on the defensive end. According to SportVu, opponents shot just 39.7 percent against Galloway and his effect on those shots ranked in the 93rd percentile. He had an above-average steal rate and drew offensive fouls at a pace placing him in the NBA's upper fifth. Synergy's per-play metrics put him in the 70th percentile at his position and in the 95th percentile on isolations. His effort and work ethic on defense is what you'd expect of a player who rose through the ranks, and is what should keep him employed for the foreseeable future. SCHOENE's match with Boston's Avery Bradley as a top comp seems apt. Galloway should once again be in the mix for regular playing time, though if he's playing 32 minutes a game as he did last season, it probably is because of another New York run of injuries.
Kristaps Porzingis
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Elite length and smooth stroke with easy 3-point range
+ Defensive footwork needs improvement
+ Above-average shot blocker with reach to disrupt opposing shooters
Analysis
Knicks fans in attendance at the draft in June were predictably annoyed when New York selected him at No. 4, but the affable Porzingis has the kind of game that could turn those sentiments around quickly. It's easy to see why scouts loved Porzingis leading up to the draft. He's got a center's height and length -- and then some -- but moves and displays on-court mannerisms like a wing. His standout attribute is a feathery face-up shot that he easily extends out to the arc. Porzingis has a quick release, consistent form and excellent balance on catch-and-shoot looks. But it's the other smaller-player qualities in his game that really make Porzingis exciting, as he handles the ball well and should be able to make plays off the dribble against defenders overplaying his perimeter shot.
In the post, Porzingis has a nice turnaround shot if he can get his feet under him, but needs to work on his counter moves and his ability to finish with his left hand. It's likely he'll always be more comfortable drifting out to the perimeter. As has been written over and over, Porzingis enters the league rail-thin and though late-summer reports were that he had put on 11 pounds are encouraging, he's likely to be pushed around as an NBA player at the outset.
His translated rebound rates are solid. Nevertheless, he won't be strong enough to guard the better interior players in the NBA as a rookie. But his small-player skillset translates to defensive footwork and he should be a disruptive force against face-up forwards with his length and ability to shuffle his feet. Still, it's Porzingis' ability to defend, or lack thereof, that will probably dictate how big of a role he'll see as a rookie. Chances are, given the polish of his offensive repertoire, Porzingis will see plenty of action this season.
Derrick Williams
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Increasingly efficient scorer inside the arc
+ Elite penetrator off the dribble
+ Struggles on defense and setting up others when drives are cut off
Analysis
The first four years of Williams' career didn't exactly go according to plan after he was taken second in the 2011 draft. Now, entering his fifth pro season, Williams will be playing for his third team and fifth head coach since leaving Arizona. The two-year, $10 million deal he landed this summer from New York was a bit of a head-scratcher. While you figure someone would take a flier on a player of Williams' raw gifts, you didn't figure it would cost $10 million to do so, or that the second year would be an option -- for Williams. Williams has shown precious little improvement during his early NBA career. Now, he'll attempt to get better in the Big Apple after disappointing in a pair of NBA outposts in Sacramento and Minneapolis. Williams' RPM (minus-5.48) for 2014-15 was one of the worst in the league, suggesting his impact is even worse than his tepid individual metrics.
On the bright side, he's an accomplished driver, ranking in the 92nd and 97th percentile the past two seasons, per SportVu. He finishes well at the hoop and draws a high rate of fouls, though he's just an OK foul shooter. He also doesn't turn the ball over much. However, the utility of his slashing is limited by an inability to create for others when he breaks down a defense. Williams' perimeter shooting has been well below average through his career and hasn't shown much in the way of forward momentum in this area either, save for a better mark on corner 3s a season ago. On defense, Williams' RPM a year ago was bottom of the barrel and his only positive attribute on that end is he doesn't foul. He's hyper-athletic, long and has a stout build. Really there's no excuse for his rebounding and defensive metrics to be so bad.
Jerian Grant
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Combo guard with good size and strength
+ Elite foul-drawer at college level
+ Hard worker with terrific durability that allowed him to log heavy minutes
Analysis
One thing you can say about the Knicks' backcourt mix this season: If veteran starters Jose Calderon and Arron Afflalo start coasting, their young backups -- Langston Galloway and rookie Jerian Grant -- will out-work them into more playing time. Like Galloway, Grant is a hard worker and dogged competitor who brings a mix of tangible and intangible qualities to the Knicks' triangle-fueled attack. Grant is three inches taller than Galloway, though his wingspan actually clocks in at a half-inch shorter, but he's a more polished offensive player than last year's surprise rookie. Grant is not a great spot-up shooter. If he was he almost certainly would have been a late-lottery pick even as a four-year player. Beyond that, his offensive arsenal is complete. He led the ACC in assist percentage and free throws as a senior and his projected assist rate from SCHOENE places him in the 90th percentile of preseason forecasts. His ability to read the floor and deliver the ball earned superlatives from his new coach, Derek Fisher, over the summer.
Grant's ability to get to the line stems from a nifty crossover move that gets him into the paint and outstanding body control once he elevates. His combination of playmaking off the dribble, the foul-drawing and an accuracy mark over 57 percent on 2s during the past two seasons suggest a plus pick-and-roll point guard at the NBA level. He's also good in isolation and big enough, at 6-foot-5 that in the triangle, he might be able to post-up smaller point guards if he adds that to his arsenal. On defense, Grant uses his length to disrupt perimeter shooters, ranking in the 70th percentile against spot-ups a season ago, per Synergy. He can swing between both backcourt positions and it's that well-rounded repertoire that makes Grant such a nice fit for the triangle. He also comes with an NBA pedigree as the son of Harvey Grant and the nephew of former Phil Jackson stalwart Horace.
Lou Amundson
Position: Forward
Experience: 9 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Top-level rim protector for the end of the bench
+ Prolific offensive rebounder
+ Has improved face-up ability out to mid-range
Analysis
It's apparent that playing hard and being professional will be important to the culture of the Phil Jackson/Derek Fisher Knicks, and that's not a bad thing. While you don't want to get too worked up about a guy who will likely be the fourth-string center on a roster heavily populated with big men, it will be hard to watch Amundson this season and not wonder why he's in a New York uniform and Cole Aldrich is not. Aldrich is younger, put up over three WARP last season and even signed for less 2015-16 money than Amundson is getting from New York.
But as an end-of-the-bench guy, Amundson has a lot going for him. He's a consistently positive defender, reaching the 95th percentile in 2015-16 RPM a season ago. He plays hard in a limited role, rebounds at an elite level, and tries to stay out of the way on offense. He doesn't do anything well on offense other than chase down the misses of others. He turns the ball over far too often and is a poor finisher at the rim, largely because of how many of his shots get rejected. His usage rate last season bulged to 17.5 percent, though that's unlikely to be repeated on a healthy Knicks roster. Every team needs someone to do the little things, and few NBA players are more willing to do them than Amundson.
Cleanthony Early
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Showed off-the-dribble potential as a rookie
+ Struggled as a face-up shooter during first season
+ Good mix of defensive indicators
Analysis
After starring for a terrific Wichita State team, it was a bit of a surprise that Early lasted into the second round of the 2014 draft. During an injury-riddled rookie season, Early did little to prove teams wrong for passing him over. With a rare -- for a second-rounder -- fully guaranteed second year on his contract, Early will get another chance to show he can become a steady understudy for Carmelo Anthony. While you don't want to read too much into the performance of second-year guys in the Las Vegas Summer League, Early nevertheless impressed. Most importantly, he looked fully healed from the knee and ankle trouble that dogged him as a rookie.
There is nowhere to go but up. Early finished below replacement in WARP and his RPM was in the bottom 5 percent of the league. He rebounded well for his position and moved the ball unselfishly, albeit at the cost of too many turnovers. His .447 true shooting percentage was disappointing, though he did show promise from the corners. Hopefully a return to health will allow Early to improve his poor 52.2 percent mark in the restricted area. Early showed promise off the dribble and if his offensive arsenal consists of spotting up from the corners and attacking against close-outs, that's not so bad if he defends well. His individual metrics in that regard were mixed, but his RPM on defense was above average for his position. He's already 25, so this should be the season if Early shows it's not too late to become a legit 3-and-D wing in the NBA.
Kevin Seraphin
Position: Center
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Black hole after receiving the ball with consistently negative offensive impact
+ Above-average rebounder on both ends of the floor
+ High-level finisher around the basket
Analysis
Seraphin's game is about as analytically unfriendly as you'll find. If all you look at are his per-36 minute averages, which tend to range around 15 points, 8 boards and 1.5 blocks, and his career 49.1 percent mark from the floor, you'd think he's a perfectly serviceable big man. From an analytics standpoint though, we're talking about a player who has posted a total of minus-6.3 WARP over the past three seasons and ranked in the bottom 10 percent of the league on a per-possession basis. His RPM numbers, at least on offense, are just as bad. He's been minus-3.0 or worse the past three years overall and has been in the bottom 5 percent of offensive players each season. Why are Seraphin's traditional numbers so full of air? He's the rarest of birds: a volume-scoring big man, with usage rates annually into the 20s, with no value-added qualities in his repertoire.
Seraphin relies on a steady hook shot to get post looks up more or less at will. While he can be counted on to knock down roughly half of those looks, in reality he needs to be much better than that to have any real impact. His turnover rate is far too high for his position, usually around 15 percent of his team's possessions while he's on the floor, and his foul-drawing rate is almost impossibly low given his wide body and post skills. And while he rates high on a per-shooting-zone basis, about two-thirds of his looks come from the lowest efficiency areas of the floor. The bottom line is, Seraphin burns through far too many possessions to justify his 15 points per 36. On the plus side, he's an average defender and solid rim protector, better down low than on the move. When the Knicks face top big men, Seraphin will be the primary defensive backup to Robin Lopez.
Lance Thomas
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Showed semblance of face-up game in first season playing the triangle
+ Doesn't create offense and has limited range on jumper
+ Hard-worker and spirited defender
Analysis
Thomas is doing something right because despite consistently poor metrics, he keeps finding work and earning praise from his employers. Last season between Oklahoma City and New York, Thomas logged a career-high 1,490 minutes during which his teams were outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions. That's not to place all that blame on Thomas. It just was a long season for him, during which he played hard enough to earn an over-minimum deal to return to the Knicks for 2015-16.
As for those iffy metrics, Thomas' minus-4.4 WARP in 2014-15 ranked last in the NBA. His RPM (minus-4.71) wasn't last, but it wasn't far from it. So what does he do to stay in the league? On offense, his chief attribute is an ability to get to the basket off the dribble and draw fouls, and he's an above-average offensive rebounder. On defense, he plays hard and is versatile. While it's not reflected in Thomas' RPM, his SportVu-tracked effect on shooting is solid (61st percentile). He's a consistently good one-on-one defender and he held opponents to 42.9 percent shooting at the rim a season ago.
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Super-athletic but lacks clear offensive peg or raw shooting ability
+ Terrific on-ball defender with exceptional wingspan
+ Good in transition and finishing around the paint
Analysis
After convincing 2014 second-round pick Thanasis Antetokounmpo to play with their D-League affiliate last season, the Knicks signed Giannis' older (but shorter) brother to a two-year, mostly unguaranteed deal this summer. Now they hope Antetokounmpo, in time, can exhibit just enough offensive acumen to justify his immense potential on the defensive end. Though he's been playing hoops for just six years, Antetokounmpo earned spots on one of the D-League's All-Defensive teams each of the past two years. Last season, he ranked in the top 10 in that circuit in both steal and block rates.
Antetokounmpo is a tireless defender and while he's a good 4-5 inches shorter than Giannis, Thanasis' 7-foot wingspan and top-shelf athleticism allow him to be every bit as disruptive as a defender. Not that he's a finished product there either, as his per-play metrics suggest someone who's better at locking onto an opponent and freelancing than playing true team defense. On offense, Antetokounmpo leverages his athleticism to get to the line at a high rate. But he's not a good shooter, either from the charity stripe or anywhere outside of the restricted area. In the D-League, he put up a 31.1 percent effective field-goal mark on jump shots last season, per Synergy. At his best, you'd hope for a guy who can shoot from the corners, draw fouls off the dribble and finish in transition.
Sasha Vujacic
Position: Guard
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projectoins
Scouting report
+ Formerly high-level deep threat who has been overseas in recent years
+ Streaky for a shooting specialist but has good enough handle to take shifts at point guard in the triangle
+ Pesky but limited defender willing to sacrifice body to draw offensive fouls
Analysis
After playing in just two NBA games over the past four seasons, one-time Lakers heartthrob Vujacic is back, leveraging his experience in the triangle offense into a one-year, minimum salary deal with the Knicks that is fully guaranteed. The last we saw of Vujacic as a full-time NBA player, he was unsuccessfully trying to prove that he could translate his solid performance as a bench player on a title-winning team in Los Angeles into a bigger role as a Net. Now he's 31 and coming off a season in Europe in which he didn't play often, or well. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Vujacic shot 26.4 percent from deep last season in Spain while playing 14 minutes per game.