On the eve of the start of the 2013-14 NBA regular season, with rosters set, it's time for a last update to my SCHOENE projection system. As compared to the projected records in the team forecasts that have been posted the past month, these differ slightly because of rotation changes, injuries and Friday's trade between the Phoenix Suns and the Washington Wizards.
To give a better sense of the variability in these projections, I used them to simulate the season 1,000 times, including the playoffs. One new feature this year is a playoff-specific projection that strips out players at the end of the roster and assumes full health for all players. While these projections mostly mirror the regular-season version, in a handful of cases they make an important difference, which I'll note individually.
Eastern Conference
Looking at the entire conference together makes it clear that SCHOENE projects a couple of distinct groups in the East. After the Miami Heat, there's a four-team logjam that includes the conventional threats to the Heat, plus the Detroit Pistons. Of these teams, the Chicago Bulls have far and away the best playoff projection. Because Derrick Rose missed so much time the past two seasons, he's projected to play just 59 games during the regular season. Without that penalty, the projected Chicago playoff rotation rates nearly as well as Miami.
The other group features eighth through 10th and used to include the Washington Wizards before Friday's trade elevated them to seventh in the conference. While on paper SCHOENE is projecting a pair of below-.500 teams in the East playoffs, in practice a couple of teams from this group are likely to outperform their projections and pull away to secure playoff spots.
At the bottom of the conference, adjustments to the Philadelphia 76ers' rotation (including cutting Nerlens Noel's projection from 50 games to 25, which may still be too many) have dropped them below the Orlando Magic in the all-important race for pingpong balls. More on that in a bit.
Western Conference
The West isn't quite as stratified as the East, but it's clear from this perspective that SCHOENE still sees it as superior at the very top. The best three projections are all in the West and five of the top six overall, with the San Antonio Spurs a full 4.6 projected wins ahead of anyone else in the NBA. Part of the reason for a playoff-specific rating was to see whether San Antonio's dominance was primarily a function of depth, but the Spurs still come out as SCHOENE's clear favorites with a tighter rotation.
Before Russell Westbrook's injury, the Oklahoma City Thunder were ahead of the Houston Rockets and not far behind the Los Angeles Clippers, and a full roster still gives them the edge over the Rockets in terms of championship odds. The Minnesota Timberwolves also fare better in the playoff projections because of health, in particular for star Kevin Love, who's projected to play 68 games during the regular season.
The race for the last couple of playoff spots in the West should be entertaining. SCHOENE pegs the five teams between seventh and 11th as separated by less than three games, making any matchup between them critical. The chance of winning the division is a small factor that explains why the playoff odds don't match the order of projected records. SCHOENE sees the Northwest as somewhat open, whereas there is virtually no chance of a surprise winner from the deep Southwest.
Lottery Odds
The simulation also allows me to project the draft order, including factoring in the actual lottery odds. Here are the teams most likely to be making top picks next season (not factoring in trades that may send these picks elsewhere):
After trading Marcin Gortat, the Suns have the lowest projection in SCHOENE's five-year history. Because Phoenix also plays in the tougher conference, Phoenix ends up with the league's worst record more than three-quarters of the time and never worse than fifth entering the lottery, meaning the Suns' chances of landing the No. 1 pick by this method are nearly as good as the maximum possible (25 percent).
In reality, SCHOENE is likely still underestimating just how bad the 76ers are going to be. Philadelphia was solid defensively last season, and adjustments at the team level move them back toward average rather than the bottom of the league. So while the Sixers' offense is projected 30th in the league, a defense ranked 19th keeps their win-loss total more respectable than it will probably be.
The difficult factor to quantify is how much teams will tear down over the course of the season. That figures to affect the Boston Celtics in particular, whose projection currently includes 59 games from Rajon Rondo. If Rondo returns later than expected or gets traded midseason, Boston would be in the mix for a bottom-three record.