Which NBA free agents will provide the most value over their next contract?
Changes to the collective bargaining agreement, which make extensions a bigger tool for players and teams, have taken some of the luster off free agency. In a different scenario, Most Valuable Player award winners Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James could have become unrestricted free agents on July 1. Instead, all three will begin lucrative extensions in 2023-24.
Free agency remains an important tool for teams looking to change their fortunes. So let's take a look at the top players available by my multiyear SCHOENE player projections, which factor performance over the past three seasons and the development of similar players at the same age and utilize adjusted plus-minus data from NBAshotcharts.com to incorporate value not captured by the box score.
The results are projections for how much value -- wins above replacement player (WAR) -- players will provide over the next three seasons, which is about the average length of new contracts in free agency. The rankings are dominated at the top by point guards, with the top three players all lead ball handlers.
Who follows them? Let's break it down.
Note: These rankings include unrestricted/restricted free agents and players yet to decide on player options for the 2023-24 season.
1. Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 29.7
When Irving is on the court, he remains a star contributor. During the 20 games he played with the Mavericks after the trade deadline, Irving was two 3-pointers away from 50/40/90 shooting splits. Although Dallas' season collapsed after the deal, that was primarily due to what happened when Irving was on the bench; the Mavericks were outscored by 10 points per 100 possessions with Irving sitting, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
2. James Harden
Philadelphia 76ers | G
Player option (June 29 deadline)
Projected WAR: 25.3
Given Harden's age (34 in August), he's forecast to decline considerably each year going forward. Still, Harden should remain a quality contributor over the life of a multiyear contract after a bounce-back 2022-23 campaign that saw him lead the NBA in assists per game and improve his scoring efficiency over the previous season.
3. Fred VanVleet
Toronto Raptors | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 21.5
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported earlier in June that VanVleet would decline a $22.8 million player option in favor of unrestricted free agency. That was an easy call. As the third current All-Star contributor on the market, VanVleet should be able to beat that starting salary while locking in a long-term deal that takes him into his 30s.
4. Kristaps Porzingis
Washington Wizards | F/C
Projected WAR: 18.3
Update: Porzingis is headed to the Boston Celtics as part of a three-team trade with the Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies, sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Porzingis is opting into his $36 million player option for the 2023-24 season.
5. Donte DiVincenzo
Golden State Warriors | G
Player option (June 29 deadline)
Projected WAR: 14.7
Before he signed last summer with the Warriors, I declared that DiVincenzo would be "my favorite buy-low pickup of free agency." He lived up to that billing, starting 36 games and shooting a career-high 40% from 3-point range while making just $4.5 million. As a result, DiVincenzo is sure to decline a player option and get a big raise this summer, even if there's a huge gap in value between the top four free agents and everyone else.
6. Coby White
Chicago Bulls | G
Restricted free agent
Projected WAR: 13.1
Quietly, White made a career-high 54% of his 2s last season in a reserve role, boosting his efficiency. Still just 23, the former No. 7 overall pick could be the next Chicago youngster to thrive elsewhere, following in the footsteps of Wendell Carter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen. Still, this aggressive projection owes primarily to White's strongly positive luck-adjusted RAPM rating.
7. Cam Johnson
Brooklyn Nets | F
Restricted free agent
Projected WAR: 12.7
Johnson continued his development after being part of the midseason trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns, averaging a career-high 16.6 PPG with the Nets while experiencing little drop-off in efficiency. At 27, Johnson is closer to a finished product than most restricted free agents, but his 3-and-D skill set is one in high demand.
8. D'Angelo Russell
Los Angeles Lakers | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 12.6
As poorly as Russell's season ended in the Western Conference finals against the Denver Nuggets, it's worth remembering the role he played in helping the Lakers get to that point. Russell averaged 15.7 PPG and 5.0 APG during the first two rounds of the playoffs, including a 31-point outburst as the Lakers closed out the Memphis Grizzlies with Irving courtside. During the regular season, Russell boosted his true shooting percentage 60 points, with his .605 mark easily a career high.
9. Josh Hart
New York Knicks | G/F
Player option (June 29 deadline)
Projected WAR: 12.1
There's no realistic chance Hart exercises a $13 million player option that would initially be non-guaranteed. He'll parlay a terrific postseason run with New York into a long-term deal that values him more appropriately. Hart's energy and unsustainably hot shooting after being dealt to the Knicks (52% on 3s, up from 35% career) helped them turn around their season.
10. Austin Reaves
Los Angeles Lakers | G
Restricted free agent
Projected WAR: 11.6
This projection surely undervalues Reaves given the way he blossomed with the ball in his hands more frequently after the Lakers traded away Russell Westbrook. Reaves averaged 17.6 PPG and 5.5 APG after the All-Star break while shooting 58% from the field, 44% on 3s and averaging 5.4 free throws. He backed it up as the Lakers' third-best player in the playoffs, meaning the team would be wise to match any offer. Other teams will be limited to an offer sheet of four years and a projected $98.5 million due to the so-called "Arenas rule" provision of the collective bargaining agreement.
11. Khris Middleton
Milwaukee Bucks | G/F
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 11.4
A year removed from an All-Star appearance and two years from being the second-leading scorer as the Bucks won the championship, Middleton will surely rank higher than this on teams' big boards entering free agency. His projection is limited in part by averaging just 24.3 minutes per game after returning from injury late last season. Middleton ramped that up to 34.6 MPG in Milwaukee's first-round playoff loss, though his age (32 in August) is a concern for a long-term deal.
12. Jakob Poeltl
Toronto Raptors | C
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 11.1
Right in his prime at age 27, Poeltl is coming off his best offensive season, one that saw him shoot 63% from the field -- 65% after a midseason trade brought him back to the Raptors. The question about Poeltl's value is whether he can get back to being the top-tier rim protector he was prior to 2022-23. Poeltl's numbers defending the rim, down as part of a porous San Antonio Spurs defense, got no better in Toronto.
13. Tre Jones
San Antonio Spurs | G
Restricted free agent
Projected WAR: 11.1
Starting more games (65 of the 68 he played) than big brother Tyus ever has in a season, Tre averaged 12.9 PPG and 6.6 APG, establishing himself in that role. Jones' value is limited by his lack of 3-point shooting (28.5% last season, 27% career), but at age 23 he has time to develop. Having achieved "starter criteria," Jones will be guaranteed a sizable raise off his previous minimum salary.
14. Jordan Clarkson
Utah Jazz | G
Player option (June 28 deadline)
Projected WAR: 10.5
At 31, this might be Clarkson's last big payday if he declines a $14.3 million player option in favor of unrestricted free agency. Starting regularly for the first time since 2015-16, Clarkson averaged a career-high 20.8 PPG. Along with All-Star Lauri Markkanen, Clarkson helped carry the Jazz's offense, which ranked in the top 10 in efficiency despite the loss of Donovan Mitchell.
15. Bruce Brown Jr.
Denver Nuggets | G/F
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 10.5
Last summer's most impactful signing in terms of the championship hunt, Brown played a key role as sixth man in Denver's title run, backing up Jamal Murray at point guard and occasionally finishing games -- most notably Game 4 of the NBA Finals -- as a wing stopper. Even if he wants to stay with the Nuggets rather than pursue more lucrative offers elsewhere, Brown can command a larger raise by re-signing using non-Bird rights.
16. Matisse Thybulle
Portland Trail Blazers | F
Restricted free agent
Projected WAR: 10.5
Having fallen largely out of the 76ers' rotation, Thybulle was traded to Portland at the deadline and started all 22 games the rest of the season. Notably, Thybulle averaged 1.5 3-pointers per game on 39% accuracy with the Blazers. If he can maintain that to go with the league's best combination of block and steal rates for a perimeter player, Thybulle will remain a starting-caliber contributor.
17. Josh Okogie
Phoenix Suns | F/G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 10.4
Having washed out as a first-round pick in Minnesota, Okogie rebuilt his value playing in Phoenix for the veterans minimum. He shot a career-high 33.5% from 3-point range, providing just enough floor spacing to take advantage of his on-ball defense. That equation tilted a bit in the playoffs, when Okogie played a smaller role in the conference semifinals, but he still proved enough that the Suns might be hard-pressed to re-sign him without access to their taxpayer midlevel exception due to new second-apron restrictions in the CBA.
18. Kelly Oubre Jr.
Charlotte Hornets | F/G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 9.8
A 20-point scorer for the first time in his career last season (20.3 PPG), Oubre picked up some of the scoring slack left by LaMelo Ball's injuries. Oubre is better cast in a secondary role like he played during his first year in Charlotte. At 27, Oubre should hold his value through his next contract.
19. Jerami Grant
Portland Trail Blazers | F
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 9.5
Dating back to his time with the Nuggets and through his offensive breakout as a go-to scorer in Detroit, Grant has never rated as well by advanced metrics as by the eye test. He enjoyed his most efficient season as a scorer in Portland, posting a career-best .606 true shooting percentage while maintaining a higher usage rate than in the first six years of his career. Yet Grant is a below-average rebounder and contributes relatively few assists and steals, the latter a big reason his defensive impact isn't as strong as his reputation.
20. Jaylen Nowell
Minnesota Timberwolves | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 9.4
Nowell's strong projection owes heavily to his 2021-22 campaign, when he averaged 19.5 points and 4.8 assists per 36 minutes while shooting 39% from 3-point range. Nowell's 3-point accuracy fell off last season, and he's at 32% career, but at 24 in July his best play is likely still in front of him. Like teammate Naz Reid, Nowell is young for an unrestricted free agent by virtue of playing four years at the minimum salary in Minnesota.
21. Terence Davis
Sacramento Kings | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 9.0
Low minute totals have hidden Davis' volume scoring off the bench in Sacramento. He averaged 20.9 points per 36 minutes in 2021-22 and 18.4 last season while scoring with reasonable efficiency thanks to 37% 3-point shooting.
22. Naz Reid
Minnesota Timberwolves | C
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 8.7
Adding Rudy Gobert largely relegated Reid to the role of backup center last season, but he shined when given a chance to play heavy minutes. In 11 starts, all but one of them with both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined, Reid averaged 16.5 PPG and 7.0 rebounds per game in just 26.1 MPG. Given his limitations as a rim protector, Reid is probably best cast as a third big man who can play inside or out depending on his frontcourt partner.
23. P.J. Washington
Charlotte Hornets | F/C
Restricted free agent
Projected WAR: 8.7
Washington hits restricted free agency after averaging a career-high 15.7 PPG last season at age 24. He's a poor rebounder for a frontcourt player and hasn't protected the rim well enough to play center on a regular basis, but he offers shot creation and floor spacing (37% career on 3-pointers) as a power forward.
24. Patrick Beverley
Chicago Bulls | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 8.6
Dealt by the Lakers at the deadline, Beverley eventually caught on with his hometown Bulls and helped key their run to the play-in tournament. Chicago went 13-9 in Beverley's 22 starts, including 11-4 with the primary starting group featuring him alongside Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Beverley will turn 35 in July, so he's probably operating from year to year at this point, but that stretch was a reminder of how his defensive intensity can help a team.
25. Russell Westbrook
LA Clippers | G
Unrestricted free agent
Projected WAR: 8.6
After a year and a half to forget with the Lakers, Westbrook found a better fit after moving locker rooms at Crypto.com Arena. He shot 54% on 2s with the Clippers, up from 47% with the Lakers, and Westbrook's 25% usage rate would have been the lowest of his career. Because of second-apron restrictions, the Clippers can offer only a 20% raise off the minimum, but staying in L.A. seems like Westbrook's best course of action.
Other notable free agents
Three members of last year's All-Defensive teams didn't crack the top 25 projections:
Most notably, there's Draymond Green of the Warriors, who declined a $27.6 million player option in favor of free agency. Because of Green's low usage rate (13% of Golden State's plays last season), his box-score value has dwindled. But Green remains an elite performer in luck-adjusted RAPM, ranking 40th over the past three years.
The same is true of Bucks center Brook Lopez, one spot behind Green in RAPM. Lopez's 2023-24 projection is on par with players near the bottom of the top 25, but at 35, age-related decline accelerates thereafter.
Lastly, there's Memphis Grizzlies guard Dillon Brooks. He's in the top 20 in RAPM, but his box-score stats are dreadful because of low scoring efficiency. Brooks' .494 true shooting percentage was fourth lowest among players who saw at least 1,000 minutes last season. None of the other three players below .500 were on playoff teams.
Harrison Barnes, Nikola Vucevic and Christian Wood are three other prominent free agents whose projections just missed cracking the top 25.