Since the Atlanta Hawks replaced coach Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan on an interim basis on March 1, no team in the Eastern Conference has a better record than their 20-7 mark.
Atlanta, aiming to return to the NBA playoffs after three rebuilding years in the draft lottery, has moved from 11th in the East when the change was made up to a tie for fourth with the New York Knicks, giving the Hawks a legitimate chance at home-court advantage in the opening round.
Most of the attention on the race for fourth in the East has focused on the even more surprising Knicks -- winners of nine straight games and whose playoff drought is far longer at seven years -- as well as last year's competitors in the Eastern Conference finals (the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat).
Is Atlanta being overshadowed in that competition? What has changed to fuel the Hawks' run over the past two months? And how much of a threat are they to land a first-round upset? Let's take a closer look.
The McMillan effect?
When the Hawks made their coaching change, I wrote they were "poised for a turnaround" no matter who was on the sideline. Notably, Atlanta had underperformed a break-even point differential by about three wins during a 14-20 start under Pierce and hadn't gotten many contributions from newcomers Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo because of injuries.
Still, even the most optimistic Hawks believers would have been hard-pressed to foresee how well the team has played under McMillan -- particularly because the team hasn't exactly gotten healthy despite Bogdanovic's return. Dunn still hasn't played this season. De'Andre Hunter, who was off to a strong start before undergoing surgery to address wear and tear in the articular cartilage in his right knee, returned to play just two games before being shut down because of soreness. And fellow second-year wing Cam Reddish hasn't come back from Achilles soreness since the coaching change.
In part, Atlanta has benefited from an easier schedule. The Hawks' average opponent under Pierce had a plus-0.5 point differential, the league's eighth-hardest schedule over that span. Since the coaching change, Atlanta's average opponent has a minus-0.6 differential, ranking as ninth easiest since then. Schedule strength alone isn't enough to explain the Hawks' turnaround: After adjusting for opposition, Atlanta has still played more than four points per game better under McMillan.
Certainly, having Bogdanovic healthy has been a key factor. When they signed him to a four-year, $72 million offer sheet as a restricted free agent last fall, the Hawks surely envisioned Bogdanovic would help keep their offense strong while star guard Trae Young rests -- a critical weakness in 2019-20. Bogdanovic played just 92 minutes with Young on the bench before the coaching change, during which Atlanta was outscored by 9.5 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Bogdanovic returned from an avulsion fracture in his right knee for McMillan's first game as interim coach and has played the majority of the minutes Young has sat (65%) since then, turning a weakness into a strength. The Hawks have a plus-2.6 net rating with Young on the bench since the coaching change and have outscored opponents by an incredible 8.3 points per 100 possessions when Bogdanovic plays and Young sits. Bogdanovic has also helped Atlanta go 5-0 in the games Young has missed since the coaching change, averaging 26.8 points and six 3-pointers per game in those wins.
Then there's the matter of close games. Under Pierce, the Hawks went .500 (14-14) in games decided by more than five points but 0-6 in those within five points. Just two other teams in NBA history with a .500 record or better in non-close games have been winless in those decided by five or fewer points 34 games into the season: the 1983-84 San Antonio Spurs (0-9) and 1984-85 Portland Trail Blazers (0-7).
Two of McMillan's first three games as head coach were close wins over the Orlando Magic (by three) and the Toronto Raptors (by one); Atlanta is 6-1 overall in games decided by five or fewer points since the coaching change. It's tempting to attribute that to coaching, but team records in close games are highly volatile. There has been little relationship historically between team performance in close games (relative to their record in other games) across the two halves of the season.
Projecting the playoff Hawks
Even without factoring in their strong run in close games, Atlanta has played at a high level under McMillan. Adjusted for opponent, the Hawks have rated 4.9 points per game better than league average since the coaching change, which ranks seventh in the league over that span and third among East teams, behind Philadelphia (plus-6.4) and Milwaukee (plus-5.8).
The big question about sustainability is whether Atlanta can keep up its hot shooting. Under McMillan, the Hawks are making 39% of their 3-pointers, good for fourth in the league. The return of Bogdanovic, a 38% career 3-point shooter, is part of that. Frankly, the injury to Reddish has helped, given he was making just 26% of his 3s this season after hitting 33% as a rookie. But Atlanta is more likely to settle in the range of 37% to 38% rather than keep threatening 40%.
The Hawks' chances of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2016 will depend in large part on whether they can stay in either the fourth or fifth seed in the East, giving them a much more favorable matchup than having to face one of the conference's top three teams (Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Philadelphia) and a chance at home-court advantage in the opening round. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index give Atlanta about a 44% chance of finishing in the top five.
Unless they face the Knicks, the Hawks will likely be at a serious disadvantage in terms of playoff experience, which has translated into first-round upsets in the past. Heat reserve Andre Iguodala has more career playoff minutes by himself (5,134) than Atlanta has as a team (4,774).
The disadvantage is even more extreme in terms of stars. Of the Hawks' five leading scorers, only Clint Capela has ever appeared in the postseason. Young in particular is worth watching, because we haven't seen teams get the chance to build a playoff-type scouting report on how to stop him on offense and take advantage of his physical shortcomings as a defender.
Despite their lack of playoff experience, the Hawks shouldn't be considered heavy underdogs against any possible opponent in a 4-5 matchup. The Celtics are probably the best of this group from a talent perspective, but Atlanta has played better over a longer stretch than Boston's current surge. The Hawks also boast the best point differential of this group at plus-2.4 points per game, just ahead of the Knicks (plus-2.2) and Celtics (plus-1.7).
Given where Atlanta was on March 1, making the playoffs without going through the NBA's new play-in tournament should be considered an accomplishment. But what the Hawks have done since then offers reason to hope they can do more than just reach the playoffs.