Would a James Harden trade to the Brooklyn Nets make sense?
My ESPN colleagues Adrian Wojnarowski, Ramona Shelburne and Zach Lowe reported Sunday that the Nets were "rising to the top" of Harden's list as he considered his future with the Houston Rockets, and Wojnarowski reported on Monday that Harden is singularly focused on Brooklyn as a destination.
But there are questions on both sides. Would Harden be able to play the role he wants alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving? And would the Rockets be able to get a better return for Harden from another team?
Let's break down a potential trade from all angles.
What could the Nets offer for Harden?
Brooklyn is well positioned to add another max salary to those for Durant and Irving because the Nets have a number of midtier salaries. Caris LeVert (making $16.2 million this season) would probably be the centerpiece of any package, with Spencer Dinwiddie ($11.5 million) and Taurean Prince ($12.25 million cap hit) also possible pieces.
A package of LeVert and one of the other two players would leave Brooklyn a little shy of the $32.9 million needed to match Harden's $41.2 million salary sufficiently to make a trade legal -- the Nets could get there by including center Jarrett Allen ($3.9 million) and forward Rodions Kurucs ($1.8 million). Alternatively, Brooklyn could avoid adding to what is looking like a massive luxury-tax bill by dealing all three of Dinwiddie, LeVert and Prince. Their combined $39.9 million salary would just about equal Harden's.
From the Rockets' perspective, a package of LeVert, Dinwiddie, Allen and Kurucs would probably be most appealing. That would potentially give Houston three starters while also saving the team nearly $8 million in 2020-21 salary, though both Dinwiddie ($12.3 million player option) and Allen (restricted if he doesn't agree to an extension by Dec. 21) could be free agents in the summer of 2021.
Would Houston have better offers for Harden?
Maybe. We're talking about a player two years removed from winning the MVP who's still in the tail end of his prime at age 31 and under contract for at least two seasons before a player option in 2022-23. If and when the Rockets decide to consider a Harden trade, they'll surely have plenty of interest.
That said, I'm not sure the "monstrous return" Houston is seeking is out there. As compared to Anthony Davis and Paul George, who have fetched such a return -- the latter connected to the Clippers' securing free agent Kawhi Leonard -- Harden is older and a trickier fit alongside other ball-dominant stars.
To some extent, Harden can play a role in determining how robust the market for his services is. If he's intent on getting to Brooklyn, he can send signals he'd be unhappy elsewhere and would consider leaving in the summer of 2022. Houston also probably wants to do right by Harden, one of the greatest players in franchise history.
How the Rockets view the Nets' offer might depend on how they prioritize adding draft picks versus existing players. Brooklyn can offer picks too -- the Nets have this year's No. 19 pick and all their own first-round picks going forward -- but those figure to be mostly at the end of the round.
How would Harden fit in Brooklyn?
The prospect of a "big three" of Durant, Harden and Irving is the most intriguing part of this report. All three players are accustomed to being the focal point of their teams' offenses, and unlike the triumvirates built around LeBron James in Miami and Cleveland (the latter including Irving), none of the three is a classic big man.
During the 2019-20 season, Harden possessed the ball an even 50% of the time Houston was on offense, according to analysis of Second Spectrum tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats. Irving possessed it 38% of the time for Brooklyn. And in 2018-19, prior to the Achilles rupture that sidelined him all of last season, Durant possessed it 26% of the time with the Golden State Warriors. By definition, something would have to give when all three of them were on the court together.
I'm confident Durant and Irving could make the necessary adjustments. After all, Durant did the same thing going from the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Warriors in 2016 and joining another former MVP in Stephen Curry. Irving did it when LeBron signed with the Cavaliers in the summer of 2014.
A smaller role would be more unfamiliar for Harden, who has been the center of the Rockets' offensive universe since being traded to Houston in October 2012. Yes, Harden played with two future MVPs in Oklahoma City (Durant and Russell Westbrook), but he was a different player then. Even over the course of his time with the Rockets, Harden has become a more ball-dominant player. From 2013-14 through 2015-16, he attempted at least 277 catch-and-shoot 3s per season according to Second Spectrum tracking. He has attempted 215 over the past two seasons combined.
I think the best option for a Nets big three would be to put the ball in Harden's hands most of the time with Durant and Irving playing off him. Both excel as spot-up shooters. Since 2013-14, Irving ranks 16th in spot-up 3-point percentage (minimum 500 attempts) per Second Spectrum at 42%. Durant is 30th at 41%. Harden's 38% mark ranks 116th.
No matter how new Brooklyn coach Steve Nash deployed a Durant-Harden-Irving trio, it would surely work offensively. They're simply too capable as shooters and scorers not to figure things out. The question is more whether all three would be happy with their role in the offense, particularly if the Nets aren't immediate championship contenders.
Harden's Rockets tenure so far is probably a good comparison. When Houston was winning a league-leading 65 games and coming within a game of the NBA Finals in 2017-18, we heard few complaints about his ball-dominant style. Now that the Rockets have lost in the second round two years running, there are more indications of unhappiness in Houston.
In terms of how good Brooklyn would be with Harden, there would be far more questions at the defensive end of the court. The Rockets compensated for Harden's difficulty defending in space by acquiring interchangeable defenders and switching a higher percentage of screens than any team in the league. That would be more difficult for the Nets with the 6-foot-2 Irving at point guard and DeAndre Jordan at center. A more conventional man-to-man would be limited by having two poor defenders in the backcourt in Harden and Irving.
It remains to be seen whether the situation in Houston advances to the point where this analysis matters. Until or unless Harden forces the issue, the Rockets don't have to do anything. But if they do make a move, Brooklyn would be a fascinating destination for the former MVP.