The NBA is full of young stars, but which young players have the best chance to be among the league's greatest in terms of on-court impact?
Let's take a peek into the future by projecting the most promising up-and-comers.
Specifically, we'll be looking at players 25 and younger who were rated positively in real plus-minus (RPM), which grades a player's performance based on box score contributions and how well the team is playing with this player on the court, while controlling for quality of teammates and opponents. We'll also be looking at RPM's box score-free predecessor, RAPM (regularized adjusted plus-minus), which is more suited to control for the factor of (young) age. It can identify very promising young players who don't rate well in any other metrics because their traditional stats aren't good yet.
Since rookies generally need time to get good -- besides LeBron James and Chris Paul, almost no other rookie was an impact player right away in this century -- we've excluded them here.
Underrated, high-impact players
Nikola Jokic | C | Denver Nuggets
RAPM: 9.0
RPM: 6.7
The Nuggets had the fourth-most efficient offense last season, in no small part thanks to the 22-year-old Jokic.
Because he can shoot the 3-pointer, defenders needs to step all the way out to the perimeter, opening up the lane for Denver's wings and guards to cut to the basket, and Jokic excels at finding them for uncontested layups.
Jokic is also one of the most efficient players in the league with a sizzling true shooting percentage (TS%) of 64 percent, fourth-best among players who score 10 or more PPG.
Cody Zeller | C | Charlotte Hornets
RAPM: 5.4
RPM: 3.3
Zeller, 24, isn't exactly on many people's radar when it comes to promising young players. Maybe that's because he's not among the league leaders in any particular box score category. However, Zeller isn't below average in any category either, except for passing (thanks to low turnover numbers, he still has a decent assist-to-turnover ratio).
Zeller is one of very few players with more than one block and one steal per 36 minutes; he doesn't turn the ball over and hits his shots at a very efficient 60 percent TS%.
Fittingly, the Hornets played 9.0 points worse per 100 possessions when Zeller was not on the court last season.
Andre Roberson | G | Oklahoma City Thunder
RAPM: 4.7
RPM: 1.2
All eyes in Oklahoma were on Russell Westbrook last season, with people forgetting about Dre. Because he very scarcely generates any box score numbers, Roberson is rarely talked about in this group. By non-box score metrics, though, he ranks as the fifth-best wing defender in the entire league.
It'd be great if Roberson could up his 3-point and free throw percentages, but even if that doesn't happen, he still has a place in the NBA as this generation's Tony Allen.
Otto Porter Jr. | F | Washington Wizards
RAPM: 3.29
RPM: 3.6
Porter signed a big contract this offseason, with many critics saying he's now among the most overpaid in the NBA. From an advanced metrics standpoint, though, his new contract seems fair.
Porter hit 3-pointers at one of the best clips in the league last season, a whopping 43 percent on 341 attempts, making him one of the most efficient non-bigs in the NBA. He also turns the ball over at one of the lowest rates ever, with just 0.6 turnovers per 36 minutes. Because he also gets steals and rebounds, Porter is one of the best 3-and-D guys of this generation.
Likely future stars who still need to work on the little things
Anthony Davis | F/C | New Orleans Pelicans
RAPM: 4.3
RPM: 4.3
Several seasons ago, people were quick to call Anthony Davis the successor to LeBron James as the best player in the league. Since then, several smaller injuries, small drops in efficiency and blocks and steals, and more turnovers have slowed the hype train.
Nevertheless, Davis is one of the best players in the NBA when he's healthy. He's one of just three players averaging better than 27 PPG and 11 RPG since 2000.
It'll be interesting to see how Davis, 24, can coexist with DeMarcus Cousins -- the two will undoubtedly compete for rebounds, among other things -- and Davis hasn't exactly had lots of team success so far. With a bit of luck, though, it's not inconceivable that Davis could find himself atop the NBA soon
CJ McCollum | G | Portland Trail Blazers
RAPM: 6.0
RPM: 1.1
McCollum is one of the best young scorers in the NBA, averaging 23 PPG. He is a member of the 50/40/90 club (2-point, 3-point and free throw percentage). What McCollum doesn't bring is positive impact on the defensive end: Portland ranked 24th in defensive rating last season, with McCollum not making a visible positive impact on that side of the court.
Critics might even say he does little but score, as his 3.6 RPG, 3.6 APG and less than 1.0 steals and blocks per game are nothing to write home about. Perhaps he can shine when paired with more defensively capable running mates, but it's unclear whether that'll ever happen in Portland.
Karl-Anthony Towns | F/C | Minnesota Timberwolves
RAPM: 3.7
RPM: 2.1
At age 21, Towns is the youngest player on this list and should have the biggest room for improvement. With his kind of box score production, though, we can't really expect much more of him. Towns is one of very few players averaging better than 25 PPG and 12 RPG with very good efficiency.
But there's undoubtedly room to grow when it comes to doing the little things on defense. The Wolves were ranked 27th on that end last season, with the team defending 7.2 points per 100 possessions better when Towns sat.
With Jimmy Butler on the team and expectations rising fast -- Vegas has the Wolves' over/under win total at 49, an increase of 18 wins -- Towns runs the risk of his box score production being called empty if Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs. At age 21, though, he still has several more years to get it.
Kristaps Porzingis | F/C | New York Knicks
RAPM: 3.7
RPM: 1.6
Porzingis entered the league with a bang in 2015, exceeding expectations after originally getting booed on draft night. At 7-foot-3, Porzingis possesses a very rare combination of size, athleticism and accuracy.
Playing for a dysfunctional NBA franchise may have had its effects, though. Not all of his box score numbers went the right direction in Year 2, as Porzingis grabbed significantly fewer rebounds and accumulated fewer blocks. His on/off rating was barely above-average at plus-2, a little worrisome when playing for a below-average team.
Certainly, Porzingis possesses all the tools to be an NBA great, but he isn't quite there yet.
Already deserving of the star label
Rudy Gobert | C | Utah Jazz
RAPM: 5.6
RPM: 6.4
Few players can match Draymond Green's defensive impact in the NBA. Gobert might be the only one. Last season, he led the league in blocks per game, ranked No. 9 in defensive rebounds per game, and made the Jazz defense 7.5 points per 100 possessions better with his presence in the middle. Though falling just short of winning Defensive Player of the Year, Gobert received a much-deserved All-NBA Defensive first-team nod last season.
Offensively, his game is a bit limited. He is very efficient but not great at creating shots for himself. However, he certainly seems more capable than many other elite rim protectors. At age 25, Gobert will undoubtedly continue to find himself in DPOY conversations for years to come.
Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | Milwaukee Bucks
RAPM: 4.0
RPM: 4.2
Given Giannis' performance last season, it's hard to believe he's just 22. Besides 3-point shooting, his game leaves very little to be desired, and he often makes highlight plays that many have thought to be impossible thanks to freakishly long arms and great athleticism.
Antetokounmpo was doing it all last season for the Bucks, essentially running their offense as a point forward, with box score numbers that'll make most anyone (maybe besides LeBron) jealous: 23 PPG, 5.4 APG, 8.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG and 1.6 SPG.
With a young roster that contains several above-average NBA players, the Bucks have one of the brightest futures in the NBA, and Giannis seems like the perfect guy to lead them.
On the rise
Bradley Beal | G | Washington Wizards
RAPM: 3.7
RPM: 2.3
I criticized the Wizards' large contract offer to Beal last summer, but since then he's done a lot to prove me wrong. Not only did he significantly improve his PPG average, but he did so while vastly improving his efficiency. With a TS% north of 60 percent, in part because he makes a stellar 40 percent of his 3s, Beal is one of the most efficient wings in the league. If he had made 28 more free throws last season, he'd be in the coveted 50/40/90 club.
His on/off numbers were also by far the best among Wizards players. Since the shooting guard position has been weak the last few years, Beal finds himself ranked No. 5 on the SG RPM leaderboard.