Joel Embiid was easily the most difficult player to place in this year's #NBArank. Although our panel has him at No. 32, the 7-foot phenom could easily make us look foolish for not having him significantly closer to the top 10 ... or for putting him in the top 100 at all.
His combination of rare statistical excellence and injury concerns -- along with the Philadelphia 76ers' roster turnover -- makes projecting the extension-eligible big man both necessary and tricky.
So let's simplify it some: Here are four plausible scenarios for how Embiid's season will play out, broken into tiers from the absolute best case to the dramatic worst outcome, and what each would mean for his potential free agency.
Tier 1: The birth of a superstar
What if Embiid stays healthy and gets better?
In this world, Embiid plays at least 75 games and cracks 30 MPG. As Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz take on a large percentage of the playmaking, Embiid's massive 16.3 percent turnover rate subsides, which works wonders for his efficiency ratings. With JJ Redick also in town, defenses can't close on Embiid as they did last season. There are fewer shots to go around, but he responds by elevating his field goal percentage from 47 percent to 53 percent, the league average for starting centers.
Last season, the 76ers allowed just 99.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, a figure that would have ranked No. 1 in the NBA over the course of the entire season. Once again, he has the same impact, only now it's for far more than just 20 percent of the team's total minutes. At 30 minutes per game over 75 games, Embiid is on the floor for 57 percent of the team's minutes, which is enough to vault the 76ers from 17th to inside the top 10 in defensive rating.
The end result: 23.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 3.0 BPG, plus a trip to Los Angeles for the All-Star Game. With turnovers cut in half and increased efficiency, Embiid would be squarely in the top-10 conversation, though not yet knocking on the top-5 door as Philadelphia simply has too far to climb to warrant consideration for the truly top tier of superstar players.
Assuming he doesn't reach an extension with the 76ers before the Oct. 16 deadline and hits restricted free agency next summer, he's be able to command any offer he wants.
Tier 2: A normal All-Star
Let's make some concessions.
Does Embiid have reliable 3-point range when open? Yes. Is he a better shooter than Reggie Miller? We're not counting on it over the long haul. Rather than expecting nearly a quarter of his shots to once again come from beyond the arc, let's reduce that figure 15 percent.
Can Embiid carry an offense? Yes. Is he really going to be the highest usage player in NBA history? Unlikely. Ben Simmons healthy and Fultz in the playmaking mix, Embiid's usage rate should fall back down, possibly into the mid-to-high 20s, where Nikola Jokic and Kristaps Porzingis reside.
Will Embiid still cough it up trying to make plays? Of course. Is he going to turn it over more often than anyone other than James Harden and Russell Westbrook, both of whom broke the single-season TO record last year? Of course not, especially as Embiid assumes significantly less of a playmaking burden.
If there's an area I wouldn't be surprised to remain somewhat of an outlier, it would be the shot-blocking. Nearly every available metric is beyond flattering when it comes to his defensive prowess, suggesting he could be the league's premier rim protector. Since he's unlikely to be in the mix for 35 to 40 MPG anyways, that removes some of the concern over his propensity to foul.
Embiid stands a decent shot at becoming the only player in modern history to average 20 and 10 while playing fewer than 30 MPG. If he does that while playing in close to 60 games, it's realistic to expect an All-Star berth and a top 20-25 player who would easily earn a long-term max, with minimal (if any) incentives for games played baked in.
Tier 3: More volume, same ability
What if the Joel Embiid we saw in 2016-17 is the one we're getting in 2017-18, just for 55-60 games instead of 31? Remember, he hasn't played since January and is still rehabbing, which means it's unlikely we'd see a new arsenal of Dream Shakes or whatever else Embiid has up his sleeve.
For argument's sake, let's keep all of his stats exactly the same. No fluctuation in 3-point shooting, shot-blocking or turnovers. If we take Embiid's real plus-minus wins and adjust for an expectation of 58 games played, it would come out to 4.56 wins, which would place him just inside the top 100.
If that seems low, keep in mind that Embiid's combination of turnovers (5.6 per 36 minutes is historic) and below-average shooting efficiency (his effective field goal percentage was 5 points lower than the average starting center) remain a significant part of the equation here.
This scenario makes him a more complicated free agent. Does another team still offer him a max? Most likely, though Philly could be tempted to play hardball with incentives, years and partial guarantees, and potential suitors who want to get tied up in the restricted market could be limited.
Tier 4: The snake bite
This is the road nobody wants to travel down. But as we've seen previously with Greg Oden, nagging foot injuries can hijack even the most talented of centers.
If Embiid isn't able to shake the injury bug, The Process becomes suddenly perilous. While the 76ers could match any potential offer next summer, they'd need to think long and hard about paying a contract north of $25 million annually to someone who will have not played one full season in combined games over four years, even someone as tantalizing as Embiid. His talent is such that it's a decision another star-craved franchise could force Philadelphia to make.
As it stands, the 76ers still have plenty of long-term flexibility because both Redick and Amir Johnson were inked to one-year deals. Like Embiid, defensive ace Robert Covington is eligible for an extension (and renegotiation on Nov. 15), though since he has such a small cap hold next summer, the 76ers could wait to sign him and take advantage of cap space chasing other pieces.
If Philadelphia decides to balk at a long-term deal for Embiid, the team could still have $40 million-plus in cap space, which would make them a major player in a summer with lots of big names on the market. Potential names they could target as Embiid replacements in this scenario include DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan and LaMarcus Aldridge.
If this seems all over the map, it's because it is. There's perhaps no player in the entire league with more vastly different plausible outcomes for how the 2017-18 season plays out.