It's the dawn of a new year, and roughly one-third of the 2012-13 NBA season is complete. By now we have a pretty decent idea of which teams are truly good and bad, but while NBA teams' records tend to stabilize over far fewer games than their counterparts in football and baseball, scheduling and early-season randomness can still play a role in team records, even 30 games into the season.
Cutting through the fog, a good analyst still needs to account for a team's point differential (usually a better indicator of true team strength than basic win-loss records) and the strength of opponents faced thus far, with a healthy dose of regression to the mean included for good measure. After a third of the season, even a power rating based on schedule-adjusted margin of victory needs to be regressed about 45 percent toward preseason expectations.
After taking all of that into account, we can construct a set of predictive ratings which can then be fed into a simulator for the purpose of projecting future outcomes. So which teams will ring in 2013 with a surprising January? And, conversely, which teams are primed for a disappointment? Let's go to the simulation results:
Due for a better January
Denver Nuggets |
Current record: 17-15
Expected January record: 9.5 wins, 5.5 losses
Probability of January improvement: 84.8 percent
Despite a sluggish, near-.500 start, it's still quite reasonable to expect the Nuggets to start playing more toward the lofty expectations set for them before the season began. For starters, Denver has played better than its record would indicate -- the Nuggets' raw point differential would suggest one more win than they actually have, and they've also played the league's fourth-hardest schedule so far. This includes a road-heavy slate that included 22 of their first 33 games away from the lofty confines of Denver. In January, that's set to reverse: they figure to face the NBA's third-easiest slate this month.
Furthermore, their stars are due to play at a higher level than they've shown in the season's first two months. Virtually all of Denver's key players, from Ty Lawson to Andre Iguodala, Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried, have produced below the rates they established a season ago; at least some of them are going to "progress" toward the mean soon. The result should be an improved Denver record in January, which will vault the Nuggets back into the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
Utah Jazz |
Current record: 15-17
Expected January record: 7.7 wins, 6.3 losses
Probability of January improvement: 72.6 percent
After earning a somewhat surprising playoff berth a season ago, the Jazz have opened the 2012-13 campaign on a sour note, finding themselves in the basement of the Northwest Division after 32 games. Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap continue to produce, but the backcourt has been underwhelming, newcomer Marvin Williams has flopped, and neither Derrick Favors nor Gordon Hayward has taken the kinds of huge steps forward the team was counting on.
Nevertheless, the Jazz have a good reason to expect better things in the new year -- namely, an easier schedule that includes eight of 14 games at home, and half of their games against below-average teams. Simply put, Utah is primed for better days almost solely because it'll go from facing the league's third-hardest schedule in November and December to its second-easiest schedule in January.
Los Angeles Lakers |
Current record: 15-15
Expected January record: 8.8 wins, 7.2 losses
Probability of January improvement: 55.2 percent
This would figure to be the easiest-to-predict January improvement of them all, since the Lakers clearly have too much star power to stay at .500 for long (especially with Steve Nash back in the lineup). And in addition to the sheer amount of talent on hand, their point differential suggests they've been shortchanged of three whole wins thus far due to bad luck in close games, another reason to expect an improved record going forward.
The only reason Los Angeles isn't the NBA's biggest slam dunk for a better January is a brutal schedule in the next 30 days that figures to be the league's sixth-hardest slate, despite nine of 16 games coming at Staples Center. Even so, Lakers haters should get their gloating in while they still can, because their early-season struggles will likely turn around soon.
Boston Celtics |
Current record: 14-16
Expected January record: 7.7 wins, 7.3 losses
Probability of January improvement: 53.2 percent
Another season, another lethargic start for the Celtics, who were also 15-15 through 30 games a season ago (contrast that with the four seasons before, when Boston was a combined 101-19 in the first 30 games of each season). The biggest reason this time around? A puzzlingly average defense, which ranks outside the league's top 5 for the first time in ages.
Blame it on Boston's advanced age if you will, because the schedule has been manageable and the Celtics haven't been unlucky in close games. Whatever the cause, the Celtics' defense will nonetheless probably regress to something resembling its previous form soon, aided by what's shaping up to be the NBA's seventh-easiest slate of opponents in the month of January.
Due for a worse January
Golden State Warriors |
Current record: 21-10
Expected January record: 6.8 wins, 8.2 losses
Probability of January improvement: 9.7 percent
The Warriors have been the feel-good story of the season so far -- a team that looked destined for the Western Conference's cellar before the season has stunned the experts by winning more than two-thirds of its games. Credit goes out to Stephen Curry, David Lee and coach Mark Jackson, but Golden State has also benefited from good fortune in close games (the Pythagorean formula says the Warriors deserve three fewer wins based on their point differential), as well as the NBA's eighth-lightest schedule in the early going.
That luck will probably change in the new year, compounded by a harsh slate that projects to easily be the league's toughest over the month of January. Unfortunately for Bay Area fans, that means there's very little chance the Warriors keep up their torrid early-season pace through the first month of the 2013 calendar year.
Milwaukee Bucks |
Current record: 16-13
Expected January record: 7.3 wins, 7.7 losses
Probability of January improvement: 28.9 percent
Milwaukee figured to be a fringe playoff contender before the season, but it seemed unlikely the Bucks would be holding onto the No. 6 seed in the East on New Year's Day. Yet that's just what has transpired, thanks in part to disappointing starts in Brooklyn, Boston and Philadelphia.
Even bigger factors in Milwaukee's apparent improvement, though, have been good luck (two more wins than Pythagoras would predict) and an extremely weak schedule (third easiest in basketball through the season's first two months). An end to such serendipity, combined with a league-average schedule difficulty and regression to their true talent level, make the Bucks a strong candidate to decline in January.
Portland Trail Blazers |
Current record: 16-14
Expected January record: 7.4 wins, 8.6 losses
Probability of January improvement: 29.3 percent
Another surprising success story in the first two months of the 2012-13 season, the Blazers have overcome dismal preseason odds (John Hollinger called for them to post the conference's second-worst record) to cling to the West's final playoff spot going into the new year. Some of that has been genuine improvement; Portland was never as bad as it might have seemed down the stretch last season.
But it has also been fueled by outperforming their Pythagorean record more than any team aside from the Warriors, as well as the league's 12th-softest schedule, and unfortunately, the Blazers are set to face the NBA's eighth-toughest schedule in January. Look for Portland to struggle to stay above .500 in the first month of 2013.