With the Christmas games in the books, and the calendar flipping to 2025 later this week, things are coming into much clearer focus from a playoff-positioning standpoint.
A few teams that once looked to be in real trouble -- the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks -- have since righted the ship with plenty of help from their MVP candidates. Meanwhile, a handful of others still find themselves with uphill climbs in the standings after getting off to slower-than-expected starts.
In light of that, we bring you our latest edition of the NBA Panic Meter, highlighting the preseason contenders that have seen their Basketball Power Index (BPI) playoff odds decrease at least 10% since the start of the 2024-25 campaign, analyzing both their current probability and the players who need to get rolling in order for them to get on track.
We organized the teams in tiers, based on where they find themselves at the moment.
Jump to a panic level:
Pelicans-level panic | High! | On edge
Starting to worry | Remaining calm (for now)
The season is basically over
New Orleans Pelicans (5-27)
Preseason playoff odds: 52.9%
Current playoff odds: 0.0%
Difference: -52.9%
Previous tier: High panic!
No team has been more banged up this season than the snakebitten Pelicans, who came into the season hoping to finally see what they looked like at full-strength. But the season was doomed from the jump, as newcomer Dejounte Murray fractured his hand in the season opener. In fact, each of the club's top eight rotation players -- Murray, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins -- was sidelined at some point over the first two months of play. The Pels are still waiting for Williamson and Ingram to return.
What's next?
Aside from the draft lottery? The organization needs to figure out how it wants to handle Ingram, who's on an expiring contract and will be a free agent at season's end. The wing scorer reportedly wanted a max extension last year, but the club was unwilling to offer one, prompting New Orleans to gauge his trade value. Similarly, depending on how the rest of the campaign goes, what is the team's long-term outlook with Williamson? The forward, 24 years old now, got back on track by playing in 70 games last season. But his lack of availability over the years -- he is scheduled to return to practice this week -- has put the small-market Pelicans in an incredibly tough spot from a roster-building standpoint.
High panic!
Sacramento Kings (13-19)
Preseason playoff odds: 55.7%
Current playoff odds: 1.3%
Difference: -54.4%
Previous tier: Starting to worry
The firing of Mike Brown -- the former unanimous Coach of the Year who ended the franchise's NBA-record playoff drought two seasons ago -- indicates how much the Kings are panicking. And yes, the odds look quite slim at this point with six consecutive defeats, including a brutal one Thursday to the Pistons. But the Kings, who brought in free agent DeMar DeRozan during the offseason and still have a top-10 offense, haven't been that far off. Case in point: The Kings have lost an NBA-high 13 games in clutch scenarios, meaning a contest within five points during the final five minutes of play or in overtime. Just as painful: Sacramento has suffered a league-leading six losses by three points or fewer. The most important number for now, though, is 3.0 -- the number of games Sacramento sits behind the final play-in spot.
What's next?
Sacramento has the NBA's fourth-toughest remaining schedule, which largely explains why advanced metrics aren't so bullish on the Kings' playoff chances. The club has two games left with each of the top-three teams from the East (Cleveland, Boston and New York) and the West (Oklahoma City, Houston and Memphis). If the Kings are going to climb in the standings, forward Keegan Murray, who was so impressive in his first and second seasons, will likely have to perform far better than he has. The forward is in the midst of a career-worst campaign in terms of efficiency, and his decline in that regard is a big reason why the Kings rank just 24th in 3-point shooting percentage -- down from 16th in the league a season ago.
On edge
Phoenix Suns (15-16)
Preseason playoff odds: 62.5%
Current playoff odds: 29.7%
Difference: -32.8%
Previous tier: None
It's almost reaching a fever pitch for the 11th-place Suns, who a little more than a month and a half ago were 9-2 and tied atop the West. But now, having lost five of six and eight of their past 11 games, the club needs to claw back into the postseason cutoff point despite being less than full strength. Phoenix has pieced together an 8-3 mark with Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant in the lineup together this season but is 7-13 without its triumvirate.
What's next?
Phoenix desperately needs Booker, who has missed the past five games due to a groin strain. It's the latest star absence for a team that has already had to play without Durant for seven straight games in November (a span in which Beal also missed five) before Durant then missed three more contests in December. If there's one area, aside from health, the team can address, it's defense. The Suns force turnovers at one of the NBA's lowest rates and surrender field goals in the paint at a top-five rate; a less-than-ideal combination for a team trying to make a deep playoff push.
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-14)
Preseason playoff odds: 83.9%
Current playoff odds: 55.4%
Difference:-28.5%
Previous tier: On edge
Arguably no team in the West has been more disappointing at times than the Wolves, who advanced to the conference finals last season before taking part in a blockbuster swap during training camp to deal four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks for two-time All-NBA selection Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. Minnesota is still desperately trying to find a consistent rhythm offensively, and ranks just 21st in efficiency.
What's next?
The Wolves have the league's 11th toughest remaining slate, with a total of six games to play against the Cavs and Thunder, who lead the East and West, respectively. DiVincenzo playing more like he has lately would be huge. He finished third in the NBA in 3-pointers made a season ago, but struggled early on with his new team. (His points per game has dropped from 15.5 to 10; his effective field-goal rate has slipped from 58.4% to 51.4%.) DiVincenzo has looked more like last season's version of himself lately, averaging 16.8 points while shooting 48.8% from 3 on 7.5 attempts over his last six games. One other area that needs work: The Wolves' clutch-time offense, which ranks third-worst in the NBA, at 96.3 points per 100 possessions and has a 37.2% assist rate that ranks as the league's second lowest.
Starting to worry
Indiana Pacers (16-17)
Preseason playoff odds: 62.3%
Current playoff odds: 40.1%
Difference: -22.2%
Previous tier: Remaining calm
The Pacers' recent hot streak -- they've won six of their past eight games, including Sunday's win in Boston -- has helped them rebound from a 10-15 start. Guards Andrew Nembhard (knee) and Ben Sheppard (oblique) are back in the lineup after missing considerable time, but forwards Isaiah Jackson (season-ending Achilles injury) and Aaron Nesmith (ankle) are not, sapping the club's depth. Nonetheless, Indiana is in a much better position to reach the playoffs again than it was just weeks ago.
What's next?
The downside of Indy's reality? The Pacers have the East's toughest remaining schedule, with nine games against the top three teams in the East and West. The upside? They have more home games left than any team in the conference. Getting Nesmith back will provide a boost on both sides of the ball, while star guard Tyrese Haliburton leveling out his baffling home-road scoring splits would also help the team's bid for a playoff spot.
Remaining calm (for now)
Philadelphia 76ers (12-17)
Preseason playoff odds: 98.1%
Current playoff odds: 67.5%
Difference: -30.6
Previous tier: On edge
No title contender had a more concerning start than Philly. Joel Embiid and Paul George were out with injuries, and then even young star Tyrese Maxey (hamstring) was forced to miss six games in the middle of November. (And now rookie sensation Jared McCain, the one bright spot early in the season, is out indefinitely after tearing his left meniscus.) The team's reality quickly went from trying to earn home-court advantage in the East to vying for a spot in the play-in. But as the Sixers showed on Christmas Day in their win over the defending champion Celtics, they have the talent to make things interesting. Philadelphia has won seven of its past nine games, suggesting that it's finally back on track after a nightmare start.
What's next?
Much to the delight of the Sixers and their fans, they have one of the softest remaining schedules in the NBA. But more than anything, Philly needs Embiid, George and Maxey to stay healthy and jell to have a shot to live up to its preseason potential. It's also worth watching whether 38-year-old backup guard Kyle Lowry, who has struggled mightily since early November, is capable of giving the team more than the career-low production he has generated thus far.
Miami Heat (16-14)
Preseason playoff odds: 90.7%
Current playoff odds: 86.1%
Difference: -4.6%
Previous tier: None
The Heat have been one of the strangest teams in the NBA so far. They rank 11th on offense and 10th on defense, making them appear to be a title contender. Their BPI playoff odds have climbed, but the panic potential lies off the court. Star wing Jimmy Butler has missed five games in a row and wants out of Miami, according to ESPN's Shams Charania. (Heat president Pat Riley said last week that the team will not be trading Butler.) Miami has been up and down throughout the season, winning four straight games in early December, only to lose five of seven to close the month.
What's next
Aside from getting (needing?) clarity on the Butler situation, the Heat could use far more from three-time All-Star Bam Adebayo, who has career-low shooting numbers to this point. The struggles of Adebayo, a major hub of the Miami offense, partially explains why the Heat own the worst clutch record (7-11) among the East teams that are currently above the postseason cutoff line. One thing in Miami's favor is its remaining schedule, which is the eighth easiest in the NBA.